Weather risk management at the Olympic Winter Games

The globally celebrated Olympic Winter Games (OWG) are highly dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. To determine the range of weather impacts on the Games, this study examines the official Olympic post-Games reports from 1924 to 2010. Impacts include preparations for the Games, holding outdoor opening–closing ceremonies, outdoor sporting competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and television broadcasts. The study also examines the range of historical adaptations that have developed to manage weather risks at the OWG. Three adaptation eras are identified, spanning the history of the games: emergent adaptation, technological transition, and advanced adaptation. Analysis reveals that while weather-induced impacts have always been a part of the Games, these impacts would be far greater if not for technical climatic adaptations. With the average daytime temperature of host locations steadily increasing from 0.4°C at the Games held in the 1920–1950s to 7.8°C at the Games held in the twenty-first century, it would be difficult to imagine recent host cities/regions successfully delivering the diverse Games programme exclusively on natural ice and snow. The connection between the evolving needs for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organisers and the growth of the Olympics in size and scope is also discussed.     

The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in a warmer world

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) and the Paralympic Winter Games (PWG) are showcases for winter sports. With their high dependence on weather conditions, accelerating climate change poses a challenge to these mega-events. Two indicators are used to assess the climate reliability of locations to host the Games (OWG in February, PWG in March) in the future under a low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario. Climate change will alter the geography of the Games over the twenty-first century. In a low-emission scenario, only 13 of 21 locations remain climate reliable for the OWG in the 2050s and 12 in the 2080s, whereas only 10 are reliable for the PWG (both in the 2050s and 2080s). The impact of a business-as-usual high-emission scenario is far greater, reducing the number of locations reliable for the OWG to 10 in the 2050s and 8 in the 2080s, with even fewer reliable for PWG (8 in the 2050s and only 4 in the 2080s). Adaptive responses are considered, including strengthening the climatological assessment requirements in forthcoming bid processes, the unification of the OWG and PWG (in the month of February), and considering dual host countries/regions.     

Commentary - Sport as an Avenue of Tourism Development: An Analysis of the Positive and Negative Impacts of Sport Tourism

Recognition of the negative effects that are often associated with sporting megaevents has emerged relatively belatedly in the academic literature. Much attention has focused on the economic development potential of sporting events (Burgan & Mules, 1992). Various authors suggest that positive image and identity, inward investment and tourism promotion through media coverage and the televising of sport also help to justify hosting sports mega-events. Roche (1994: 1) states that 'mega-events are short term events with long-term consequences for the cities that stage them'. In many cases, it seems, the long term consequences for the host cities are negative. It appears that with increasing scale, the potential for sporting events to create negative impacts also increases (Olds, 1998, Shapcott, 1998). Despite this, little academic attention has been paid to the tourism potential of regular season domestic sport competitions, national championships and local/regional sport. At these levels of sport the potential for negative impact is minimal, while the tourism development potential that they offer remains largely unresearched.     

Cycling in a changed climate

The use of bicycle is substantially affected by the weather patterns, which is expected to change in the future as a result of climate change. It is therefore important to understand the resulting potential changes in bicycle flows in order to accommodate adaptation planning for cycling. We propose a framework to model the changes in bicycle flow in London by developing a negative binomial count-data model and by incorporating future projected weather data from downscaled global climate models, a first such approach in this area. High temporal resolution (hourly) of our model allows us to decipher changes not only on an annual basis, but also on a seasonal and daily basis. We find that there will be a modest 0.5% increase in the average annual hourly bicycle flows in London’s network due to a changed climate. The increase is primarily driven by a higher temperature due to a changed climate, although the increase is tempered due to a higher rainfall. The annual average masks the differences of impacts between seasons though – bicycle flows are expected to increase during the summer and winter months (by 1.6%), decrease during the spring (by 2%) and remain nearly unchanged during the autumn. Leisure cycling will be more affected by a changed climate, with an increase of around 7% during the weekend and holiday cycle flows in the summer months.     

Bicycle equity in Brazil: Access to safe cycling routes across neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba

In many Latin American cities, rapid motorization and population growth have resulted in unprecedented urban transportation challenges, with lower income populations disproportionately facing constraints to mobility as well as externalities like air pollution, traffic collisions, and the impacts of climate change. The construction of bicycle lane networks has been identified as an effective tool for increasing citizen's mobility and accessibility as well as combating the effects of motorization, but in cities where bicycle lane networks exist, it is not known if they have benefited different income groups equally. This paper assesses the extent to which bicycle lane provisioning has been equitable among neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba. Both cities were found to have more than twice the supply of bicycle lanes in the wealthiest quintile than the lowest income quintile relative to area and population. A network analysis using a Level of Traffic Stress classification to categorize roads found that wealthier areas have more commercial areas accessible along safer cycling routes. Implications for cycling policy and future research are discussed.     

A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism

Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.     

A tentative analysis of the impacts of an airport closure

This paper identifies the vulnerabilities of operations at Heathrow airport to a short airport closure. The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to alternate airports, and flight cancellations. In addition, the impact on fuel consumption, and hence CO₂ emissions, is quantified using the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator Plus simulation model and the Advanced Emission Model tool. The results have implications for assessing how increased severe weather events associated with climate change may disrupt airport operations.     

Alternative railway futures: growth and/or specialisation?

Recent centuries have seen a succession of transport technologies, each offering improvements in speed, carrying capacity and/or operational flexibility. Having overcome many physical barriers to freedom of movement, humanity now faces two major, related challenges: dwindling reserves of fossil fuels, and anthropogenic climate change. In these circumstances, rail transport has significant potential advantages over the more energy-intensive modes of road and air.Railways dominated 19th century land transport, peaking in importance in the early 1900s. Market share then declined in the face of competition from road transport and aviation, although rail retained significant passenger and freight transport roles. Major improvements in railway operating efficiency were introduced later in the 20th century, including: the switch from steam to diesel and electric traction; containerisation and focus on long-haul, unit-train freight operations; and the development of high-speed passenger rail services in Japan and Europe, enabling rail to compete successfully with air travel over distances of up to 800 km.The UK Government’s Foresight Programme commissioned a report entitled Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, for which four scenarios were developed of how society might be in 2055. These scenarios are: ‘Perpetual Motion’, ‘Urban Colonies’, ‘Tribal Trading’ and ‘Good Intentions’, each having its own implications for the future of transport. This paper considers the implications of each scenario, and of the underlying/overriding issues of peak oil and climate change, for the possible role and significance of rail transport in meeting our transport needs in the mid-21st century and beyond.     

The fortunes of air transport gateways

The paper explores the idea that the fortunes of some gateway cities are changing as airlines use modern aircraft to respond to new market opportunities. It uses data on inter-city journeys between Australia and Asia to identify a hierarchy of gateway cities, and then shows how the connections between them has changed over the 2000–2013 period. Results show that secondary, and smaller, gateways in both Australia and Asia have played more important roles in passenger movements over this time. In Melbourne in particular, stronger growth in the demand for international travel in that city along with more use made of the smaller long-haul aircraft by airlines, has strengthened its role as a gateway city relative to Sydney. These results confirm that the geography of inter-continental air networks are changing which may have important implications for the air transport roles of some cities in the immediate future.     

Adapting to climate change: perceptions of vulnerability of down-hill ski area operators in Southern and Middle Finland

Climate change is likely to affect the tourism sector, particularly areas, such as snow-based tourism, that are directly dependent on climate and weather conditions. Especially vulnerable are low-lying ski areas. This study identifies the climatic factors that are crucial for economically successful operation of low-lying ski areas in Southern and Middle Finland and contemplates how these factors are seen to change with climate change. The study then analyses the preferences for and perceptions of adaptation strategies of downhill ski operators in terms of the adaptation measures they can implement or are willing to take. The findings indicate that climatic conditions set preconditions for the operation of the ski areas, but short-term operational prospects and inter-annual variability in weather conditions rather than foreseen changes in climatic conditions guide the operational decisions of the ski area operators. A key adaptation strategy to respond to uncertain snow conditions is artificial snowmaking, which lowers the vulnerability of the areas to the impacts of climate change too.     

Impact of Long‐Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand

This study estimates the determinants of domestic and foreign tourism demand using data on 28 Austrian ski resorts for the winter seasons 1986–1987 to 2007–1908. Using the dynamic panel data analysis, we find that the effect of the weather variables (e.g. snow depth, cloudiness or sunshine) is quite small, with a change in one standard deviation of the variation over time in each weather variable, leading to a 2–3 % change in overnight stays. Furthermore, domestic tourists are more sensitive to changes in weather conditions than foreign tourists. By contrast, overnight stays of foreign visitors are much more responsive to changes in income than it is the case for domestic overnight stays. The occurrence of extreme snow‐deficient winters, such as the winter of 2006–2007, in the future period will reduce overnight stays of foreign and domestic visitors by 2 and 5 %, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Welcome to the Wet Tropics: the importance of weather in reef tourism resilience1

As one of Australia's iconic tourism attractions and one of the seven natural wonders of the world, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is an important economic, social and natural resource for Queensland's Tropical North. However, the long-term prognosis for the health of the reef and by implication, the industries dependent on it, is not positive. So far much attention has focussed on the health and resilience of the reef ecosystem, as a foundation for a resilient tourism industry. In this study we explore how weather conditions have affected the reef experiences of 1000 tourists to the Cairns/Port Douglas region, suggesting that this may also be an important indicator of change on the reef. The results suggest that poor weather has a more pronounced effect on experiences than good weather and reinforce the likelihood that seasickness, cold and wet conditions, reduced water visibility, and difficult snorkelling/diving conditions will reduce overall levels of satisfaction. Poor weather was found to have a direct effect on satisfaction scores, the likelihood that reef and tour expectations were not realised, and lowered perceived value for money. These are important considerations for the reef centred tourism industry that is currently facing strong environment pressures from climate change.     

Global air travel: toward concentration or dispersal?

The geography of airline passenger movement through the major cities of the world has changed between 1990 and 2000. The change has been at the expense of the very large global cities and major hubs in favour of a group of next largest cities. It has been detected by comparing the shares of total passenger movement through cities in two separate ways, and by exploring changes in the connectivity between cities over a similar time period. The new pattern reflects the use of new aircraft technology, changes in the location of demand for air travel associated with a broadening in the global linkages between cities, new regulatory arrangements and airline corporate strategies. The implications are that the pressures for airport planning will be felt in a new set of cities, although because the share of passenger traffic through the very large global cities is still high they will remain a major focus for airport planning and management action in the immediate future.     

Estimating entry counts and ATFM regulations during adverse weather conditions using machine learning

In recent years, convective weather has been the cause of significant delays in the European airspace. With climate experts anticipating the frequency and intensity of convective weather to increase in the future, it is necessary to find solutions that mitigate the impact of convective weather events on the airspace system. Analysis of historical air traffic and weather data will provide valuable insight on how to deal with disruptive convective events in the future. We propose a methodology for processing and integrating historic traffic and weather data to enable the use of machine learning algorithms to predict network performance during adverse weather. In this paper we develop regression and classification supervised learning algorithms to predict airspace performance characteristics such as entry count, number of flights impacted by weather regulations, and if a weather regulation is active. Examples using data from the Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre are presented with varying levels of predictive performance by the machine learning algorithms. Data sources include Demand Data Repository from EUROCONTROL and the Rapid Developing Thunderstorm product from EUMETSAT.     

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on French Tourism

This paper deals with the potential effects of climate change on tourism in France. It examines the implications of a scenario by Météo-France (doubling the concentration of CO2) with regards to the climatic requirements of tourists, according to the different seasons, regions and natural resources on which tourism is based.     

A call for weather condition revaluation in mega-events management

This article provides a new insight into knowledge-based management of mega-events by highlighting the significance of weather at destination selection and scheduling events as an adaptive strategy toward climate change. Concerning the environmental and socio-economic costs of weather ignorance in event management, which may result in cancelation and change of the event time, it is recommended that planners perform a preliminary study prior to publicizing an event plan. Doing so, the organizer and visitors can benefit from optimal weather at the destination, as this study advises the decision-makers of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games to reschedule the dates of this international event.     

Research Note: Addressing Tourism Public Policy Issues through Attitude Segmentation of Host Communities

Resident attitudes are important in identifying the impact of tourism within communities and in determining local policy, planning and management responses for the development of tourism. Additionally, tourism policies established are vital for the marketing of cities, regions and countries. This paper examines tourism public policy, with particular reference to the importance of addressing host community interests and involving host communities in public policy decision making. It outlines a segmentation study undertaken on New Zealand residents' views on tourism and how these segments can be applied to tourism policy making.     

The travel behaviour intentions of young people in the context of climate change

This article examines the factors influencing the future travel behaviour intentions of young people (aged 11–18), with specific attention given to how climate change considerations affect these. Overall it is found that the participants’ travel behaviour intentions are dominated by a desire to drive and that their values relating to identity, self-image, and social recognition (at the expense of their environmental values), as well as their affective attitudes towards transport modes, are key influences on this. Although they are aware of climate change, the participants’ understanding of the link between transport and climate change was weak. At the same time, they illustrated an apathy towards climate change – in part due to the timing and intangibility of its associated impacts and their lack of self-efficacy with respect to tackling this issue. However, despite claiming that their current environmentally friendly travel behaviours (such as walking or cycling to school) are not influenced by the issue of climate change, a number are accepting of the idea of enforced travel behaviour change – away from use of the car, towards more ‘environmentally friendly’ modes. This acceptance was in part due to their belief that such action would remove the influence of the ‘social dilemma’, where their own efforts to tackle climate change may be rendered worthless by the inaction of others.     

Cities, mobility and climate change

Societies gain enormous benefits from travel, as economies have become more globalised and as the new communications infrastructure allows international networking and travel at a low cost. There has been a true internationalisation of all activities, and travel forms an essential part of that process. However, this mobility is fuelled by carbon, and there is clear scientific agreement that carbon emissions are affecting the global climate with irreversible long term consequences. Transport is the one sector where a reduction in energy use and emissions is proving to be extraordinarily difficult to achieve despite some success in urban areas. This paper focuses on cities, mobility and climate change, highlighting recent trends in both developed and developing countries. It is argued that the current situation is unsustainable, and that transport must contribute fully to achieving carbon reduction targets. An alternative is presented, based on the sustainable mobility paradigm (Banister, 2008) that looks at ways to reduce the need to travel in cities. The belief that high mobility and technology provides the solution is misplaced, as technological innovation can only get us part of the way to sustainable transport, and this may facilitate more travel. There are opportunities for cities to switch to low carbon transport futures, where vision and action are based on a combination of economic, planning and technological innovations working in mutually supporting ways. Potentially, the future is bright for low carbon transport in cities, but the real question is whether there is the commitment and leadership to follow such a path.     

Identification of critical sections of the Spanish transport system due to climate scenarios

In recent years climate change has become a multidisciplinary research topic that addresses the challenges facing transport infrastructure planning, construction and operation. The study of the adaptation of transport systems to new environmental conditions is often based on the interrelated concepts of resilience, vulnerability and criticality. In this paper we assess the criticality of sections of Spain's inland transport network under the effects of changing climate scenarios obtained from a specific climate projection (using the time periods 2010–2020 and 2045–2055). The functionality of the transport system is characterised here in terms of territorial accessibility. The results identify and locate the most critical stretches of the Spanish transport network. In general terms, the most relevant sections in regard to accessibility will not be exposed to the greatest changes in climate variables. Up to 2.8% of the roads and 5.9% of the railways that contribute most significantly to the territorial accessibility of the transport system will undergo the greatest variations between climate scenarios. This paper contributes to this field of research by developing a screening tool that represents a valuable instrument for the infrastructure decision-making process at the strategic level. Action areas for proactive adaptation measures can be identified in order to reduce impacts and costs, while prioritising the maintenance or reconstruction of the most critical stretches in the case of a future climate event.