Simulation method for dispatching national border security manpower to mitigate manpower shortage

Recently, a record number of passengers have entered and exited Taiwan from Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TTIA). The number of passengers from Taiwan to mainland China has increased largely because of the improvement of cross-strait cultural interaction and other policies, as well as the opening of direct flights. Not only located in the transport hub of the East Asia Taoyuan International Airport is becoming more important and can provide 24 h Airport service, but also airport immigration officers must take 24 h shift to carry out the passenger document inspection requirement, Immigration officers can be fatigued by long shifts, thus negatively affecting border security clearance efficiency and work performance. Consequently, innovative management practices regarding immigration officers are necessary to strengthen international cooperation against terrorism. This study used system simulation Delphi interviews and a heuristic algorithm to determine the required number of airport immigration officers during a fixed passenger waiting time, for improving the efficiency and stability of airport immigration officers who work to consolidate the border security of the country. The results showed that the utilization of airport immigration officers at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport is higher than 97.99%, and their work hours have been reduced by more than 54.68%. These results proved that using a system simulation can reduce long work shifts and negligence, which can lead improved border security and airport service quality. Additionally, the simulation results that when the National Immigration Agency and Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport implement the biometrics verification system for noncitizens, significant manpower shortages are expected. These shortages can cause complaints from customers and result in a negative image of the quality of airport service. Assigning priority to setting the E-GATE system to compensate for the lack of immigration officers would result in more efficient and effective border security.     

Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of crime on tourist arrivals in Jamaica

This paper examines the relationship between tourist arrivals and changes in the crime rate in Jamaica over the period 1962–1999. In particular, it uses a transfer function to account for variations in total arrivals and arrivals from the European market, owing to changes in the crime rate. The transfer function allows for the modelling of the immediate and delayed effect of crime rates on tourist arrivals. The paper finds first that although crime rates have a negative impact on tourism arrivals in both markets, it is of greater concern in the European market. Secondly, the impact of crime in the overall market is relatively small, because of increased advertising and promotion and the growth of all‐inclusive hotels. Finally the level of crime, especially violent crime, has to be reduced, because although the number of crimes against tourists has declined, high violent crime rates tend to raise concerns among tourists seeking a destination. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of daily tour service quality on tourist satisfaction and behavioural intentions in an island context: a study on tours to Isla de la Plata,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of daily tour service quality on tourist satisfaction and behavioural intentions in an island context. Using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the analysis of data collected from 195 participating in a daily tour to Isla de la Plata (Ecuador) showed that all the services examined (transportation by boat, food and beverage, tourist guide and visits) had a significant direct impact on tour satisfaction, having the transportation the highest impact. Moreover, the indirect effect of the daily tours services on behavioural intentions mediated by the satisfaction with the tour was also significant.     

Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon,Turkey and Israel

Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, this paper examines the impact of domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand (as measured by visitor arrivals) to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The distinguishing feature of this paper is that we use a dynamic framework that takes into account (i) the intensity of terrorism and (ii) the associated spillover effects. The empirical results, based on monthly data from 1995 to 2007, reveal that terrorism in one country affects visitor arrivals not only to that country but also to other countries. We find that tourists view Lebanese and Turkish tourism markets as substitutes. Terrorism in Israel, of all types (i.e. domestic or transnational) and intensities, affects visitor arrivals to Lebanon and Turkey. In overall terms, terrorism has a much larger negative impact on visitor arrivals to Lebanon.     

Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments

In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to find events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We find that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non‐recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we find that the exchange rate influences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global financial crisis and stationarity of tourist arrivals: evidence from Mauritius

The purpose of this research note is to examine whether shocks such as the recent global financial crisis of 2007–2009 had a permanent or transitory effect on tourist arrivals in a developing country – Mauritius. Principally premised on a new nonlinear unit root test, the results show that tourist arrivals are stationary. The implication of these findings is that the shocks inclusive of those induced by the latest credit crunch had a temporary impact on tourism markets in Mauritius.     

Are tourist arrivals stationary? Evidence from BRIC countries

In this study, we attempted to analyse whether the shocks to tourist arrivals in BRIC countries are temporary or permanent, by analysing the stationary characteristics of the data in panel framework. We found that, for Brazil, Russia and India, tourist arrivals are stationary process, whereas for China it is non-stationary process. This implies that shocks to the tourism sector in Brazil, Russia and India have only temporary effect, whereas the shocks to China's tourism sector have permanent effects.     

Does security matter in tourism demand?

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between security and international tourist arrivals. The system Generalized Method of Moments technique is applied in two panels of 29 developed and 45 developing countries over the period 2006–2012. Employing social, economic and political security indexes beside other control variables, the results show that the relationship among all the three sub-indexes of security and tourism is positive and significant in developed nations while it is negative and significant in developing countries.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

Motivational determinates of creative tourism: a case study of Albergue art space in Macau

ABSTRACT

Creative tourism is a new genre of tourism eliciting active tourist participation in learning and experiences. This study explores tourists’ motivations for participating in creative activities, as well as their perceptions of authenticity following a visit to the Albergue Art Space located in Macau, SAR, China. Empirical results indicate that vernacular heritage, service quality and participatory experience are key determinates for developing creative tourism. Sightseeing, social contact, self-improvement and escape emerge as primary motivations for participating in creative activities. In addition, tourist perceptions of authenticity in the context of creative tourism encompass objective and existential components. This study proposes to incorporate aspects of participatory experience into creative tourism products.     

Maritime tourism and terrorism: customer perceptions of the potential terrorist threat to cruise shipping

Maritime terrorism is a neglected area of research in tourism, particularly the use of scenario planning to understand potential threats to the cruise industry. Since the events of 9/11, terrorism, and the threat of terrorism, has become a major concern within the tourism industry. This article analyses tourist perception of perceived terrorist threats given that many ships are American owned. Using the scenario analysis presented by Greenberg, Chalk, Willis, Khilko, and Ortiz, this study suggests that an attack on a cruise ship is a distinct possibility. Indeed, 44% of respondents questioned perceived the possibility of a terrorist attack on a cruise ship to be likely despite the fact that safety and security is seen by the industry as a ‘hallmark’ of cruising. Differences in attitude among potential passengers revealed a high level of confidence in the cruise ship companies. This finding is particularly marked among more experienced cruise ship passengers. However, this did not necessarily preclude the possibility of security measures being improved. All passengers appeared generally resigned to the fact that risk is associated with travel in the twenty-first century and welcomed any efforts by cruise shipping companies to improve safety and security.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.     

Tourism in ASEAN-5: A novel panel unit-root test for shocks persistence with gradual structural breaks and common factors

This study investigates whether shocks to tourist arrivals in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5) are permanent or transitory, given the frequent and severe external shocks experienced by the tourism industry. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2019, we employ a novel panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations, multiple gradual structural breaks, and other nonlinearities present in the data to assess the stationarity properties of tourist arrivals. Additionally, we apply a panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations and allows for abrupt structural changes for robustness. The empirical findings reveal that shocks to tourist arrivals in the ASEAN-5 countries exert persistent effects. Our results demonstrate nonstationarity within the series, illuminated by our careful consideration of both gradual and abrupt structural breaks. This finding underscores the necessity for policy interventions to mitigate the impact of adverse shocks on the tourism industry.     

Tourism,Trams and Local Government Policy-making in Christchurch,New Zealand

This paper examines the role of local government and the nature of the policy-making process in urban tourism through a detailed analysis of the development of the Christchurch tourist tramway. The basic issues addressed are why and how a tourist tramway was developed in Christchurch and what was the development and policy process. A detailed chronology of events is established through the analysis of archival material, newspaper accounts and interviews with key personnel. The analysis and interpretation centres on understanding what was driving the tramway development process. Emphasis is given to identifying key factors and events, the tourism arguments used, and the interests of the different parties involved. The process is shown to be ad hoc and incremental, with the development of the tramway being part of broader urban processes and policies. Tourism is frequently used to rationalise other interests, notably a desire amongst enthusiasts to see trams running once more on the city's streets. In many respects, the Christchurch case reflects broader issues elsewhere.     

Tourism demand: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.     

Hong Kong's aviation and tourism growth - An empirical investigation

This study investigates the critical link between aviation and tourism growth in Hong Kong, with a focus on the identification of causal relationships between scheduled airline seat capacity and visitor arrivals. This is achieved through the cointegration analysis and Granger-causality test, using monthly data collected from Hong Kong's top 17 tourist source markets during 2008–2018. Our analysis finds clear evidence of an overall two-way causal relationship between airline scheduled capacity and tourist arrivals. The positive externalities between the two crucial sectors to the Hong Kong economy call for coordinated planning and policy design in the tourism and aviation sectors, and justify continued government support. On the other hand, market-specific features are evident in selected markets. Such heterogeneity is likely due to airline network effect and regulation in the international market. Therefore, direct subsidy is not always an efficient support measure. A combination of liberalization policy and industry supports are preferred in views of the benefits to be achieved for the two sectors and the Hong Kong economy.