Experience and the unexpected: risk and mitigation issues for operating underground storage silos for coal-fired power plant

Observed autoignition events and extinguishing the resulting smouldering fires in an underground storage system of a coal-fired power plant have provided insight into the array of contributing variables, and some experience on quantifying the risk with alternative scenarios of event initiation, progress and potential mitigation. Although the first attempts to quantify the risk suggest high sensitivity to the sequence of action taken after fire alarm, and no similar storage sites really exist, some recommended preventive, corrective and other mitigating activities can be at least partly defined and improved by using the cumulative experience and parallel efforts in other closed or underground storage sites. However, there are also so-called black (or at least grey) swans: unexpected events for which the facility may be poorly prepared for. In the case of the underground storage silos, such an event was experienced when incoming cold coal during a harsh winter season froze the sewer system that normally protects the stored coal from seepage water. With blocked normal bypass, the seepage water found its way to the coal silos and created large clumps of icy coal that blocked the coal conveyors. Although freezing weather is not unusual at high-latitude power plants, the common methods to combat freezing of coal are mainly useful for open storage sites and above-ground transport. Options for mitigation are discussed, as well as the event chain leading to an event that had never previously occurred. The case is discussed from the point of view of options to prepare for rare or unforeseen events.     

An exploration of alcohol-related fire incidences

In this paper we examine an operational research project concerning the analysis of the characteristics of alcohol-related fire instances attended by a UK Fire and Rescue Service in the North West region of England and the development of a geographical information system for fire prevention support. The research project examined the circumstances of alcohol-related fires, their geographical distribution and the socio-economic characteristics of such fire incidences within the region studied, and also involved the design and implementation of a geographical information system for supporting prevention of such fires. Overall, it was found that cooking fires involving ‘harmful’ or ‘hazardous’ levels of alcohol consumption were most likely to be found amongst younger urban residents living in high levels of deprivation, students living in city centre locations and young families with high benefit need within the region studied.     

Domestic fire risk: a narrative review of social science literature and implications for further research

In this paper, we make the case for more social science research into fire incidents and fire-related risk behaviour. Unlike other vulnerabilities, such as crime, illness or risk-associated activities such as smoking, or accident avoidance, remarkably little research has focused on this area. This is perhaps surprising given the propensity for fire, its emotional, social and economic impacts, and evidence that fires and fire victims are not equally distributed across socio-demographic or geographical domains. In making our case, we outline: recent numbers and trends in incidents in the UK, focusing on domestic incidents and recent policy developments affecting fire and rescue services. Next, we review the social-science based literature on fire incidents, suggesting that while this offers useful insight, much more needs to be done to develop a rigorous evidence base. While we would not want to dismiss or downplay existing social science contributions, our contention is that a considerable number of opportunities exist for further work in this area. Consequently, we propose a number of ways in which popular ideas about risk theory can be applied to a domestic fire context and raise a number of questions that social scientists are well positioned to contribute to an interdisciplinary understanding of domestic fire incidents and associated risks.     

Approaches towards a generic methodology for storage of hazardous energy carriers and waste products

Energy carriers – either conventional or ‘new’ ones – have to be provided in large amounts to meet the requirements of permanent availability and reliable supply of electricity. Depending on their state of aggregation, energy carriers are either stored in large masses (if solid or liquid) or at elevated pressures (if gaseous). Both impose the hazard of large-scale fire, in the latter case additionally the danger of explosion or unintended release. Very similar hazards occur for wastes. Solid wastes are present in large masses and only a small part is recycled. Most of the solid wastes are used in energy conversion. The main gaseous waste is CO₂. During capturing also the hazard of unintended release exists. In this article, existing approaches for safe storage and fire prevention are discussed and a generic methodology is outlined. This methodology consists of the following steps:

? gaining knowledge about the behaviour of the material stored (reactivity, thermal stability, etc.),

? assessing the environmental conditions for the storage site (neighbourhood, safety distances, etc.),

? assessment of prospective consequences of an incident and

? development of individual loss prevention conceptions.

All steps require both experimental testing and theoretical considerations about accident scenarios as integral parts of the methodology.     

Managing unintentional dwelling fire risk

In this paper, we examine the management of unintentional dwelling fire risk through the development of a geographical information system (GIS) for dwelling fire prevention support based upon an 18-month case study in a UK fire and rescue service. Previous research into causal factors in unintentional dwelling fire incidents was used to guide the development of a multiple linear regression risk model for dwelling fire incidents that was the basis of the GIS developed. The GIS provided a more detailed analysis of unintentional dwelling fire risk factors, and enabled more targeted fire prevention activities for the identified at-risk social groups.     

Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers’ Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short and Long-Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California

Unlike most hedonic studies that analyze the effects of a one-time event, this paper analyzes the effects of forest fires that are several years apart in a small geographical area. We find that repeated forest fires cause house prices to decrease for houses located near the fires. We test and reject the hypothesis that the house price reduction from one fire is equal to the house price reduction from a second fire. The first fire reduces house prices by about 10%, while the second fire reduces house prices by nearly 23%, a statistically significant difference. The pattern of these results are robust to several alternative econometric specifications.

The future of fire in environmental management

Fire has been a significant force in the evolution of ecosystems since the beginning of life on earth, and has occupied a powerful role in shaping the physical and natural world as we experience it today. Historically, human societies have both feared fire as a natural, destructive force, and used fire to social and technological ends. Indeed, the harnessing of fire by human societies represents one of the most profound changes in the ability of humans to achieve mastery and dominance over the natural world, increasing their safety and well-being. However, the future of fire is uncertain. The great landscape-scale fires that have shaped the natural environment can no longer be allowed to exist. Once thriving on vast uninhabited tracts of forests and grasslands, their existence is now an anathema to the communities that checkerboard most of our national forests. Like threatened and endangered species in the ecological realm, large-scale fire itself is becoming extinct due to intrusions of human habitation into the very forests that provide the fuel for its existence. Modern fire rarely exhibits the qualities of historical fire with its enormous releases of energy, rapid spread, and long duration. When it does, the results are deemed catastrophic and sociopolitical forces intervene to prevent its reoccurrence. Yet, ecosystems are dependent on fire for their vitality and sustainability, creating a conflict between the needs of nature and the fears of human societies. What is the future of a purposive role for fire in ecosystems? How can fire as a historical force continue to play a similar role in the future? This paper examines the relationship between humans and fire, and explores its meaning for how we will make decisions about fire's future as both a property of nature and as a tool for human development.     

Home Fire Safety Checks in New South Wales: an economic evaluation of the pilot program

Traumatic events such as fire can result in fatality, injury, and loss of property; even a minor fire can interrupt the normal flow of people’s lives. During the years 2009–2013, urban and regional New South Wales (NSW) experienced an annual average of 4329 residential structural fires with 593 injuries and 22 fatalities at an annual cost of $656 million dollars. In 2014, Fire and Rescue NSW piloted a program called Home Fire Safety Checks (HFSC), aimed at high-risk households. In total, 228 homes in 8 suburbs received safety checks, including having smoke alarms installed, having batteries changed in smoke alarms, and being provided with fire blankets and fire safety information. The pilot study design enabled detailed economic evaluation of the program, including both development costs and ongoing costs for a full roll-out. Analysis of the cost of fire within NSW, combined with measurements of the success of similar programs internationally, demonstrates the program’s cost effectiveness. Savings per dollar spent exceed $12 if the program includes 1% of high-risk homes and obtains a 0.75% reduction in number of fires. These results demonstrate that a full roll-out of the HFSC program warrants ongoing funding. External factors affecting program delivery include community acceptance and willingness to participate in the program, particularly very high-risk individuals, and ongoing behavioral change. In addition, HFSC faces the same ongoing funding challenges other preventative community programs face in a period of tightening state budgets.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

Is the allocation of resources towards mitigation and response to fire in Australia optimal?

Australia invests significant resources to address the risk of fire in all its forms. This study asks the question: is the current investment strategy cost‐effective? This question was approached in two ways: first, through a cross‐sectional study of fire statistics from other developed countries and, second, through a structured expert judgment exercise. The former found no significant relationship between the level of investment and losses from fire, suggesting that other factors are responsible for the observed inter‐country variance in fire losses. All the respondents to the structured expert judgment exercise perceived no net economic benefit would be achieved from increasing investments in prevention and response and most indicated net benefits from reducing this investment. The results of the expert judgment analysis, when considered alongside the equivocal international comparisons and fire service efficiency gains achieved in some parts of England and Wales, raise doubts about whether the allocation of investments in mitigation and response in Australia is truly risk‐informed.     

Assessing the effectiveness of fire prevention strategies

ABSTRACT

The authors examined the process of assessing the effectiveness of fire prevention within a Fire and Rescue Service in north west England, demonstrating how this was applied in practice. The approach to fire prevention strategy assessment included overall fire and rescue service performance, performance in relation to different population segments, cost per head performance, and multi-agency collaboration to support an effectiveness-based rather than outcomes-based performance assessment.     

云南政策性森林火灾保险试点调查

云南省森林资源十分丰富,是我国重点生态功能区。2010年云南被列为中央政策性森林火灾保险试点省区。云南政策性森林火灾保险在发挥社会管理功能,推动云南林业发展方式转变,推进"森林云南"建设,构建国家云南"桥头堡"战略具有重要的现实意义。目前,云南政策性森林火灾保险逐渐形成了"灾前协同预防——损失全球补偿——促进灾后恢复林业植被生产——推动云南生态功能区建设"四位一体的功能雏形,被国家林业局等部门称为"云南模式"。本文在对阳光财险云南分公司、呈贡森林防火指挥部、林业部门调研基础上,分析云南政策性森林火灾保险的现状,总结云南政策性森林保险运行特点和面临的困难,并提出完善云南政策性森林火灾保险制度的建议。     

Do insurers adjust prices for the adoption of loss prevention technologies? Evidence from Danish municipal contracts

Using data from 40 Danish municipalities on building characteristics, loss prevention technologies, insurance claims, and insurance bids from 2008 to 2019, we investigate whether and how loss prevention technologies influenced contract prices. The insurance bids cover a variety of municipal buildings across a range of risks including fire, water leakage, and building security as well as structure detection and alarm systems. The study shows that the magnitude of historical claims may affect both pricing offers and interest in loss prevention technologies. We do not find that loss prevention technologies have any significant influence on contract price. This suggests inefficiencies in the market from imperfect information.     

Rating of worry about energy sources with respect to public health,environmental health,and workers

Environmental risks of different energy sources pose a significant problem for managers, decision-makers, and the general public. Attitudes and perceptions may differ by type of energy, as well as the recipient of the harm. A post-Fukushima survey of students and others in a university community in central New Jersey was conducted to determine how much people worried about the potential effects of different energy types (nuclear, chemical, coal, hydroelectric, solar, wind, and gas), which aspect they worried about (public health, workers, and the environment), and which form they thought the USA should further develop. Ratings for worry varied significantly by energy type and receptor type. In general, worry was greater for all aspects of chemical, coal, nuclear, and gas, and significantly less for hydro, solar, and wind. Worry was generally higher for exposure from the plant, exposure from food and water, exposure to workers, and exposure for wildlife than for either transportation issues or exposure from everyday occurrences. The same exposures (or targets) were rated for each energy source. The greatest worry for each energy type was as follows: (1) nuclear exposure to radiation in food, although worker exposure and exposure from the plant were very close, (2) chemical exposure was from accidents in the plant, (3) coal was from harmful effects of mercury on wildlife, (4) hydro was from contamination of drinking water, (5) solar was from harmful UV radiation exposure in wildlife, (6) wind was from mortality of birds due to wind turbines, and (7) gas was from harmful gas exposure to wildlife. Overall, the highest rated features in terms of worry (four of seven energy forms) were for wildlife. The survey population believed that wind, solar, tidal, and hydro power should be developed further, and coal should be developed the least.     

Reimbursing Preventive Care

The paper focuses on secondary prevention, such as diagnostic screening, medical examinations and checks-up, which refers to the early detection of disease. Secondary prevention is analyzed as a self-insurance activity reducing the negative shock of illness and can be either complement or substitute to illness treatment. This paper analyses the optimal reimbursement scheme for both prevention and treatment when each activity receives either a linear subsidy (i.e. cost sharing) or tax. Although optimal reimbursement systematically encourages treatment, it positively affects prevention if and only if prevention reduces the cost of treatment, that is in the case the two activities are substitutes.     

Reimbursing Preventive Care

The paper focuses on secondary prevention, such as diagnostic screening, medical examinations and checks-up, which refers to the early detection of disease. Secondary prevention is analyzed as a self-insurance activity reducing the negative shock of illness and can be either complement or substitute to illness treatment. This paper analyses the optimal reimbursement scheme for both prevention and treatment when each activity receives either a linear subsidy (i.e. cost sharing) or tax. Although optimal reimbursement systematically encourages treatment, it positively affects prevention if and only if prevention reduces the cost of treatment, that is in the case the two activities are substitutes.     

“十二五”将确定炼焦煤开发布局——专访国家能源局煤炭司司长方君实

国家能源局正在组织开展全国炼焦煤资源调研,其目的就是为了摸清全国炼焦煤资源的赋存、开发和利用情况,之后能源局将结合煤炭工业发展"十二五"规划,确定"十二五"期间国家炼焦煤资源开发布局     

灭火救援环境ZigBee无线传感器网络路由协议的研究

本文在分析比较了目前流行的几种无线传感器网络路由协议的基础上,结合灭火救援工作方面的特点和需求,提出了一种适用于灭火救援工作面的网状拓扑结构的ZigBee无线传感器网络的路由算法,并从路由建立、路由维护、路由恢复等方面进行了详细描述。该路由算法对其它具有ZigBee网状拓扑结构的系统具有一定的参考价值。     

养老机构安全事故演化机理和风险管控法治化路径

本文描述了火灾、疫病流行、侵犯人身权益等风险敞口在不同类型养老机构中的暴露程度,阐释了险源循着点源、离散集中源、线源、面源而演变,直至逼近临界点或遇有导火索而引爆事故的机理。本文结合养老机构事故案例分析发现:消除“不安全状态和不安全行为”是切断事故因果链的关键一环;路径依赖中的自我强化和沉没成本对安全管理升级产生不利影响。本文从法治化建设的视角对养老机构安全风险管控路径提出建议:赋予消防执法改革更高层级的法律依据;依法完善养老机构疫情防控举措和《养老机构服务合同》;注重安全风险管控中的补偏救弊;强化突发安全事故的应急处置等。本文基于对调研资料和相关案例由表及里的剖析,使这些来源于基层实践的素材能够在理论层面还原实践且具有政策价值。