The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies1

The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long‐term output by about 12–17 percent. The effect is larger in smaller countries in which the banking sector presented more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy has been the most efficient tool in dealing with the crises, whereas the effect of monetary policy has been rather modest. Flexible exchange rates are found to attenuate the impact of the crises in the short and medium term, but to amplify the effect in the long run. International Monetary Fund support is found to moderate the effect in the long run. Finally, the effect in the CEECs is considerably larger than in the EU advanced economies.     

CUSTOMER TYPE AND BANK EFFICIENCY IN POLAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR EMERGING MARKET BANKING

Bank efficiency studies on emerging markets tend to show that foreign banks are more cost-, profit-, and operationally efficient than statE-owned or domestic private banks. They also show that large banks are more efficient than small banks. Using a parametric approach to measuring efficiency, this article finds that foreign banks servicing foreign and business customers are more cost-efficient and less profit-efficient than other banks in Poland. Additionally, evidence of cost economies and profit diseconomies of scale are found. These results have implications for regulatory policies focused on promoting efficiency in the banking systems of emerging markets.     

Determinants of technical efficiency of crop and livestock farms in Poland

Poland, one of the candidate countries for European Union membership, is currently experiencing acute structural problems within its agriculture sector. This article analyses technical efficiency and its determinants for a panel of individual farms in Poland specialized in crop and livestock production in 2000. Technical efficiency is estimated with stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and confidence intervals are constructed. Determinants of inefficiency are also evaluated. The SFA results are compared with results using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). On average, livestock farms are more technically efficient than crop farms. For both specializations, the size–efficiency relationship is positive, that is large farms are more efficient. The SFA findings are generally supported by the DEA results. Soil quality and the degree of integration with downstream markets are highly important determinants of efficiency. The use of factor markets (land and labour) is important for crop farms, while livestock farms can rely on family labour and own land. Also, education is a constraint to efficiency particularly for crop farms.     

Profit rates and structural variables in French manufacturing industries

In this paper, the authors apply the theory of industrial organization to the French manufacturing sector. Profit rates of industries and firms are related to concentration on the product market, differentiation, economies of scale, absolute capital cost requirements and to firm sizes. The analysis suggest that concentration on the seller's side may lead to misallocation of resources in industries in which barriers to entry are high. They also suggest that large firms may be less efficient than smaller firms. These results call into question the industrial policy of the French government over the last ten years.     

Measuring farm sustainability and explaining differences in sustainable efficiency

A major objective of European agricultural policy is to have a sustainable and efficient farming sector that is applying environmentally-friendly production methods. Policy makers aim to combine a strong economic performance and a sustainable use of natural resources. Therefore, it is important to measure and to assess farm sustainability. For a large dataset of Flemish dairy farms, a valuation method that is based on the concept of opportunity costs is used to calculate and analyze differences among the sample farms with respect to the creation of “sustainable value”. But more important than measuring the creation of sustainable value is to analyze differences in sustainable efficiency. Therefore, sustainable efficiency measures are calculated and differences in sustainable efficiency are explained. Using panel data, an effect model captures the determinants of sustainable efficiency of the studied farms. The empirical model shows that, in general, larger farms have a higher sustainable efficiency. Also farmer's age and dependency on support payments proved to be determining characteristics for observed differences in sustainable efficiency.     

Scope economies and technical efficiency of cocoa agroforesty systems in Ghana

A number of studies have addressed issues relating to the physiological, environmental and economic values of trees in cocoa farming systems. However, to date, little has been done to quantitatively examine the effect of crop diversity on cocoa farming efficiency. This study therefore sets out to first investigate whether and to what extent crop diversity (defined as the mixing of cocoa with other crop species on farmers' plots) affects productivity on cocoa farms. Secondly, it sought to establish whether there are economies of scope (i.e., cost complementarities) from the sharing of farm inputs by crops on the same plots. Our results indicate that diversified (i.e., multi-crop) cocoa farms are more efficient than single (i.e., mono) crop farms. Furthermore, our estimate for the economies of scope parameter indicates possibilities for cost complementarities between production of cocoa and other crops on the same plot. We advocate further investigation on the issue of scope economies to determine which crop combinations offer better cost complementarities and also meet biodiversity conservation objectives.     

Investigating productivity change and hospital size: a nonparametric frontier approach

The study obtains measures of the productive efficiency of ‘larger’ and ‘smaller’ Northern Ireland hospitals during the 1986–92 pre-Trust period. The measures provide insights into how these hospitals were responding to the pressures for increased efficiency prior to Trust status. They also constitute a useful benchmark for evaluating productivity change under the post-1992 Trust status environment. A nonparametric frontier approach is used to measure productivity change and to decompose this into technical change (or shifts in the best practice frontier) and efficiency change (or change in how far a hospital is from the frontier). The latter change in efficiency is also decomposed into changes in scale efficiency, pure technical efficiency and input congestion. The findings indicate that smaller hospitals, starting from a less efficient base, achieved greater productivity gains than larger hospitals over 1986–92. For smaller hospitals, this was due to progressive shifts in the best practice frontier outweighing a substantial decline in efficiency. This decline was found to be due to a deterioration in scale efficiency over the period. The results overall support the current policy view that larger hospitals are more efficient than smaller hospitals in providing health care services.     

Farm Survival and Growth in Transition Economies: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Hungary

Our conceptual model states that new individual farms may begin at a small, even sub-optimal, scale of production and then those farms that are successful will survive and grow, whereas those that are not will remain small and may ultimately be forced to exit from production. The samples of individual farms analysed throughout this article are drawn from the 1998 Farm Survey in Hungary. Our estimation results show that older and larger farms are more likely to survive, farm growth decreases with farm age when farm size is held constant and that learning considerations are important. Beside these standard results, in transition economies farmers', market and industry characteristics have a significant impact on the survival and growth rates of individual farm enterprises.     

规模化养殖对我国肉鸡生产效率的影响——基于随机前沿生产函数的实证分析

采用随机前沿方法,利用2004—2010年我国24个省份的肉鸡生产数据,实证分析了规模化养殖对我国肉鸡生产效率的影响,并对不同养殖规模的肉鸡生产效率进行了测度和比较。结果显示:规模化养殖很大程度上提高了我国肉鸡生产效率,中规模养殖使肉鸡生产效率提高了16.89%,大规模养殖使肉鸡生产效率提高了57.62%;我国肉鸡生产效率的地区差异较大,且南方地区不同养殖规模的肉鸡生产效率存在显著差异,而北方地区的这种差异较小;标准化规模养殖程度不高是南方地区的肉鸡生产效率总体偏低且不同养殖规模的肉鸡生产效率存在较大差异的主要原因。     

Industrial policy in Eastern Europe: A three-country comparison

The design and implementation of industrial policy in Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary in the 1960s and 1970s are explored. In Czechoslovakia where management of the economy was more centralized than in Hungary and Poland, a policy of promoting production and export of nuclear equipment was effectively carried out; other product groups were less successful. In Poland, bureaucratic resistance undermined the implementation of industrial policies (which were never unambiguously formulated). The Hungarian policy was chiefly oriented toward import substitution. The statistical evidence gives only weak support for the effective conduct of industrial policies in these countries.     

Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)

We estimate a four variable structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary economies in order to evaluate the links between the instruments of monetary policy and inflation outcomes. We find that the linkages between the interest rates and price levels are weak. However, the exchange rate constitutes the most important channel of monetary policy transmission for Poland and Hungary. For the Czech Republic, the link between interest rate rise and price level is rather indirect.     

POLICY UNCERTAINTY,ELECTORAL SECURITIES,AND REDISTRIBUTION*

This article investigates how uncertainty about the adoption of a redistribution policy affects political support for redistribution when individuals can trade policy‐contingent securities in the stock market. In equilibrium the support for redistribution is smaller than where no “policy‐insurance market” is available. This implies that in economies with well‐developed financial markets redistribution decreases with the level of participation in these markets and with income inequality. Furthermore, the existence of a policy‐insurance market may lead to a less equal distribution of income than where no insurance is available even if a majority of individuals are redistributing resources through private transfers.     

Financial imbalances and gradualism

In the last years, in the major OECD economies, while inflation has become lower and more stable, episodes of financial instability and large cycles in asset prices have shown up with (often) non-negligible effects on economic activity. These facts should call for a larger concern with financial imbalances by the central bank. Adapting the model by Caplin and Leahy (1996)—where a central bank, which is uncertain about the state of the economy and its reaction to policy, seeks an optimal search strategy to influence private agents' responses—by substituting the central bank's price stability objective with a financial stability one, we find that the monetary authority should follow a less aggressive policy than the one suggested by the original model. However, initial conditions play a crucial role in determining the degree of gradualism by the policy maker with the policy becoming more and more aggressive as the initial interest rate shrinks.     

The impact of labour reallocation and competitive pressure on TFP growth: firm‐level evidence from crisis and transition ridden Bulgaria

This article uses the experiment of a macro‐financial crisis and radical liberalization in Bulgaria to explore the impact of labour reallocation and competitive pressure on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in the manufacturing sector. Our results indicate that labour reallocated from less efficient to more efficient firms in virtually all industries but the influence of other within industry characteristics on TFP growth was significantly higher than the impact of between industry characteristics. Furthermore, while increased competitive pressure had a positive impact on TFP growth among relative laggards in the respective industries, this impact was more than overwhelmed by the inability of industrial leaders to leapfrog their competitors. This result is inconsistent with evidence from developed industrialized economies, but similar to that of less developed countries marked by credit crunch and institutional failure. It has potentially important policy implications.     

Small and Productive: Kenyan Women and Crop Choice

The question of gender differences in agricultural productivity has received particular attention in the development literature. The stylized fact that women produce less than men, while on average occupying smaller farms, presents a quandary as it is also a stylized fact that smaller farms have higher yields per unit of area. Using data from the 2006 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey, this study examines whether there is a gap in output per acre between men and women farmers in Kenya. Using ordinary and two-stage least-squares (OLS and 2SLS) analyses, it shows that when crop choice is taken into account, women are as productive as men. Specifically, the study finds that market-oriented crops are the source of differences. This suggests that further research into what determines crop choice is needed, in addition to policy that ensures that women have the same access as men to support for market-oriented crops.     

Monetary Policy Rules for Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the monetary policy reaction functions for the new European Union member states. We find interesting differences when looking at both interest rates (the Taylor rule) and monetary base (the McCallum rule) as monetary policy rules. Monetary aggregate is more likely to react to the deviation of inflation from its target, while short‐term interest rates are highly sensitive to the deviation of exchange rates in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. For Hungary and Romania, both interest rates and money are responsive to inflation. In empirical literature, much attention is paid to the use of the Taylor‐type rule for developed economies. However, our empirical results raise questions on the reliance of this rule for these transition economies.     

Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly With Network Compatibility Effects

We consider the efficiency of price and quantity competition in a network products market, where we observe product compatibility with network externalities (hereafter, network compatibility effects). In particular, if network compatibility effects between firms are sufficiently asymmetric, the Cournot equilibrium is more efficient than the Bertrand equilibrium in terms of larger consumer, producer and total surpluses. Then, we consider an endogenous choice of the strategic variables, price and quantity. If the degree of network compatibility effects of the rival firm is larger (smaller) than the degree of product substitutability, then choosing prices (quantities) is a dominant strategy for the firm. Thus, if the network compatibility effects of both firms are larger (smaller), the Bertrand (Cournot) equilibrium arises. Furthermore, if the network compatibility effects between the firms are sufficiently asymmetric, the firm with a larger (smaller) network compatibility effect than a certain level of product substitutability chooses quantities (prices). In this case, the Cournot–Bertrand equilibrium arises, which is less (more) efficient than the Cournot equilibrium in terms of consumer (producer) surplus.     

Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model

I estimate the transmission of a common euro area monetary policy shock across individual euro area economies. To do so, I develop a global VAR model in which all euro area economies are included individually while, at the same time, their common monetary policy is modelled as a function of euro area aggregate output growth and inflation. The results suggest that the transmission of monetary policy across euro area economies displays asymmetries, and that, in line with economic theory, these are driven by differences in economies׳ structural characteristics. In particular, euro area economies in which a higher share of aggregate output is accounted for by sectors servicing interest rate sensitive demand exhibit a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity. Similarly, even though the evidence is less conclusive, euro area economies which feature more real wage and/or fewer unemployment rigidities also appear to display a stronger transmission of monetary policy to real activity.     

Measuring the time‐varying effects of fiscal policy on private saving in the process of financial integration

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy, measured as the extent to which private saving is offset by public saving, in the process of international financial integration. Using extensive panel data for 87 countries over the period 1970–2010, we find that the dynamics for the saving offset are highly nonlinear and time‐varying. While the saving offset has gradually declined in line with rapid financial integration in advanced economies, it has remained broadly stable in less financially integrated emerging and developing economies. This implies that the negative wealth effects of fiscal policy in advanced economies have been smaller owing to higher financial integration, which could help governments reduce their debt burdens through the well‐anchored domestic interest rates at the world level.     

Welfare effects of competition for FDI between technologically asymmetric countries with varying trade costs

Given the traditional argument that host countries' excessive competition for FDI (foreign direct investment) deteriorates the host countries' welfare, this paper examines the impact of policy competition for FDI on social welfare considering varying trade costs. Based on a model where two technologically asymmetric countries compete for FDI, we determine an equilibrium where a multinational firm relocates to a less efficient country. Moreover, we demonstrate that the policy competition for FDI between less integrated economies might improve social welfare when the multinational firm relocates to a country with a lower technology and a less competitive market. Nonetheless, we show that the traditional argument can be true when the policy competition for FDI between highly integrated economies deteriorates host countries' welfare, as supported by the empirical evidences of moderated competition for FDI within EU member countries.