Emerging risk of autoignition and fire in underground coal storage

The risk and prevention of autoignition in underground coal storage facilities are reviewed in the light of the recent incidents of smouldering fires. Also, the opportunities are considered on the efficiency of the alternatives to prevent and extinguish closed-space fires. The complexities in avoiding and extinguishing underground fires are highlighted in the case example, describing the observations and outcome of a smouldering coal fire in the storage. The principles of self-heating and most critical factors in spontaneous combustion such as the condition and quality of coal are fairly well known, but usually only provide partial help in fire prevention. The documented cases and the case example suggest that nitrogen injection can be useful for extinguishing controllable fires. Three-phase foams and oxygen-displacing exhaust gases appear preferable against uncontrolled fires, particularly if access to the fire area is limited or impossible. Otherwise, efficient fire extinction during power plant operation can be challenging, as any air ingress tends to feed the fire and results in losses of the extinguishing agent and the heating value of coal. Methods and indicators for detecting and predicting the ignition are discussed, and improvements are suggested to enhance the storage and plant availability.     

Quality in risk reporting on energy issues in German news media

In media coverage, the context of the German energy transition, also referred to as Energiewende, casts a spotlight not only on various technology options (e.g. wind or coal power) but also on more abstract topics such as security of supply or electricity prices. Thereby, the public’s assessment of energy-related issues may greatly rely on perceived risks. Focusing on the quality of energy-related risk reporting, this contribution therefore is intended to explore the German print and TV media discourse on energy options or topics. In our sample, one in three articles connects an energy option or topic with an evident or potential unwanted event. Although the media’s effect on actual risk perception involves some controversies, researchers tend to criticize the media as being susceptible to framing and for failing to place unwanted events in perspective, e.g. by not presenting the corresponding likelihood of occurrence, which is necessary to define risk. If this critique holds true, accurate public risk assessment is partly hampered because media coverage implies uncertainty rather than providing all information available. We examined seven indicators of quality reporting derived from literature research: intensity, likelihood, controllability, desired uncertainty, sensationalism, emotional language, and type of unwanted event. Based on German energy media coverage in 2013, we found a relatively high occurrence of intensity and controllability, whereas likelihood and desired uncertainty were reported less often. By aggregating the indicators into a risk-reporting quality index, we did not observe a poor quality of risk reporting on energy issues. In contrast to previous research, the overall quality of energy-related risk reporting can be assessed as at least moderate, implying that the media depicts risks more precisely than assumed. The occurrence of quality indicators thereby significantly depends on the type of unwanted event rather than on the energy option considered.     

The relationship between risk experience and risk response: a study of farmers and climate change

Within the existing literature, the role of experience of risk on attitudinal and behavioural risk response has been relatively neglected. Recent research that draws on the psychological distance of climate change as a concept notes the importance of local, significant experience as a driver for encouraging appropriate response. The experience of flooding was used as the stimulus in this paper, and emphasis placed on whether direct and/or indirect experience of flood risk is associated with different responses to climate change risk. In order to explore the relationship between climate change risk experience and response in the form of on-farm mitigation and adaptation, this paper draws on a case study of farmers in England, many of whom have experienced flooding. Results from a quantitative survey undertaken with 200 farmers in Gloucestershire, England are discussed. Statistical analysis found experience of flooding to be significantly associated with a heightened concern for climate change. Although also finding an association between experience and behavioural response, the sample were most likely to be taking adaptive behaviour as part of normal practice, with factors such as lack of overall concern for climate change risk and absence of information and advice likely to be the main barriers to action. Risk communication needs to further emphasise the connection between climate change and extreme weather events to allow for farmers to perceive climate change as a relevant and locally salient phenomenon, and subsequent tailored information and advice should be offered to clearly illustrate the best means of on-farm response. Where possible, emphasis must be placed on actions that also enable adaptation to other, more immediate risks which farmers in this study more readily exhibited concern for, such as market volatility.     

Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion,competition and complacency

Flood risk insurance can be an effective tool in assisting the restoration of damaged property after a flood event and sustaining communities through difficult times. It can also form part of a wider flood risk management strategy. In the light of recent flood events in the UK and in the context of changing property insurance markets, the universal cover previously enjoyed by floodplain residents has been called into question. Conflicting media and industry views leave the floodplain resident and the wider community in confusion. A survey of floodplain residents in England regarding their experience with flooding and flood insurance in England has been undertaken. The results reveal that some floodplain residents do indeed encounter difficulties when seeking insurance for their homes. However, despite the risk‐averse policies of some insurers, availability of insurance is still strong in both at‐risk and previously flooded locations. Success in gaining insurance may lead to complacency among residents who see no advantage in pursuing other, more costly, damage mitigation actions. As a tool in risk management, therefore, the market is prevented from realising its potential by competition, which results in a lack of a consistent approach, rewards homeowners' search strategies and reduces information flow.     

Consequences matter, ‘risk’ is marginal

Critical comments by Palm and Slovic on a previous article of mine (L. Sjöberg, Consequences of perceived risk: demand for mitigation, Journal of Risk Research 2, 129–149) are discussed. Palm’s arguments are largely based on misreading of my article, and her own studies, which she described in detail, are largely irrelevant in the present discussion. Slovic’s arguments are met by pointing out that the many references he cites in favour of his standpoint are mostly quite misleading and irrelevant. Furthermore, I present two new studies where the riskiness of activities was investigated, as well as the risk of unwanted events caused by such activities. All results very clearly support the conclusion that seriousness of consequences is a more important determinant of demand for risk mitigation than risk or probability of unwanted events, or riskiness of activities that can lead to such events.     

Social Thinking about Collective Risk: How Do Risk‐related Practice and Personal Involvement Impact Its Social Representations?

The study investigates the effects of personal involvement in a collective risk on the structure of its social representation, and how those effects depend on risk‐related experience. The paper reports an empirical study conducted within the structural approach to the Social Representations Theory. We tested the effects of risk‐related practice (earthquake experience) and of personal involvement in risk on the structure of its social representation. The results showed that the social representation was normative in nature, but became more practically oriented in the group who experienced earthquake. A normative representation is useful in judging risk's attributes; instead, a more functional, or a more practically oriented representation is expected to enable the use of more diversified risk‐related information especially for practical purposes (risk mitigation behaviour). Similarly, the social representation of participants who were highly involved in seismic risk was more structured and more practically oriented. However, this was true only if they possessed risk‐related experience, either through collective (risk culture) or live earthquake experience. Based on these results, a suggestion is made on how to increase the efficiency of prevention campaigns that aim at encouraging collective risk‐mitigation conduct.     

人民币信用风险缓释工具市场应用分析与展望

2010年11月,银行间市场推出人民币信用风险缓释工具,为丰富市场信用风险管理工具、完善市场信用风险分担机制开创新途径。文章基于信用衍生品市场的国际经验,从信用风险缓释工具与经济周期,信用风险缓释工具与信用债券、利率掉期套利等角度,探讨了人民币信用风险缓释工具的市场应用策略,并展望了其市场发展前景。     

信用违约互换产品信用事件拍卖结算机制研究

当前国内的信用衍生品——信用风险缓释工具已试水起航,随着业务的发展和深入,信用事件发生后其结算流程与结算效率将成为市场参与者关注的焦点。文章结合案例对国际上信用事件拍卖结算机制的运作原理进行了系统介绍,指出该机制为低流动性下发现某交易标的的市场公允价值提供了一种解决思路,建议可考虑借鉴此类方法并充分结合国内业务发展现状,适时推出国内信用风险缓释工具的拍卖结算机制。     

The market value impact of operational loss events for US banks and insurers

This paper conducts an event study analysis of the impact of operational loss events on the market values of banks and insurance companies, using the OpVar database. We focus on financial institutions because of the increased market and regulatory scrutiny of operational losses in these industries. The analysis covers all publicly reported banking and insurance operational risk events affecting publicly traded US institutions from 1978 to 2003 that caused operational losses of at least $10 million – a total of 403 bank events and 89 insurance company events. The results reveal a strong, statistically significant negative stock price reaction to announcements of operational loss events. On average, the market value response is larger for insurers than for banks. Moreover, the market value loss significantly exceeds the amount of the operational loss reported, implying that such losses convey adverse implications about future cash flows. Losses are proportionately larger for institutions with higher Tobin’s Q ratios, implying that operational loss events are more costly in market value terms for firms with strong growth prospects.     

Perceived risk and the earthquake insurance purchase decision: a commentary on a paper by Lennart Sjöberg

Sjöberg in his 1994 report entitled 'Perceived risk vs. demand for risk reduction' has argued that 'risk perception' involves two separable components: the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of this event. Based on three empirical studies, Sjöberg concluded that one of these two factors is far more important than the other: that the perceived severity of consequences is a better predictor of demand for mitigation than the perceived probability of harm or risk. This paper focuses on the second of the three reported studies involving the adoption of home insurance in Sweden. The empirical analysis reported here, based on survey research in California, supports the conclusion that perceived probability of occurrence continues to be an important factor in the decision to purchase voluntary hazards insurance.     

A Flexible Approach to Semantic Annotation Systems for Web Content

In this paper we propose a flexible approach that supports heterogeneous requirements on systems for the semantic annotation of web content. The flexibility of the approach originates from a model based on the definition of abstract events, which captures at the logical level the main interactions occurring in a system for combined management of ontologies and web content. Application-specific semantics is then provided operationally as an assignment of handlers to these events. While the abstract events are rather coarse-grained to reduce prior commitment, preconditions on the handlers express application-specific distinctions based on contextual information associated with each specific event. Although the possibility to define completely new handlers guarantees the generality of our approach, we foster convention over configuration by providing a set of default handlers, which can be customized by filling their extension points. The use of customizable handlers, whether or not the default ones, reduces the development effort and guarantees consistent user experience despite evolving requirements. A comprehensive framework for semantic annotation of web content has been realized and will be hereafter introduced. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

To fear or not to fear? Applying the social amplification of risk framework on two environmental health risks in Singapore

Abstract

Smoke haze and dengue fever seasons were nationwide environmental health risk events that plagued Singapore between April and June 2013. Although relatively harmless compared to dengue fever, people in Singapore were visibly more disturbed by smoke haze. They engaged in preventive behaviors such as frantic purchasing of protective masks or staying indoors most of the time. Such reactions hint at the possibility of the social amplification of risk, a term coined to explain irrationally high public concerns over relatively minor risk issues, due to the visible nature of the risk event or people’s reactions to it. The current study aims to confirm the social amplification of risk for the haze event, as well as to test for the underlying reasons behind this phenomenon. Among the antecedents explored were the influence of information channels (traditional media and social media) on risk perception, negative affect, information seeking, and information sharing on the enactment of preventive behaviors. Data were collected from a sample of 343 college students through an online questionnaire. Results supported the presence of social amplification of risk for the haze event, and social media exposure was found to overshadow the influence of traditional media exposure on risk perception, negative affect, information seeking, information sharing, and preventive behaviors.     

The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception,self-efficacy and coping capacity

Impacts of flooding are expected to increase, most notably in residential areas. As a consequence, private households are increasingly encouraged to engage in private flood mitigation complementary to public measures. Despite the growing literature on private flood mitigation, little is known about how social capital influences households’ perception of and coping with flood risks. This study draws on survey data of 226 flood-prone households in two Austrian Alpine municipalities, both recently affected by riverine flooding. We show that social capital cuts both ways: on the positive side, social capital increases perceived self-efficacy and provides critical support during and most notably after flood events. On the negative side, social capital reduces flood risk perceptions of private households. While social ties are effective when responding to and recovering from floods, the expectation of social support downplays risk, making precautionary action by households less likely. The results also show that flood-affected households receive more social support than they provide to others. In the long-run, this can lead to a problematic reciprocity imbalance, challenging the long-term stability of the interpersonal exchanges underlying social capital. Among the various sources of social support, informal social networks (neighbours, friends and relatives) provide the most important workforce in the response and recovery phase of a flood event. It is therefore crucial for flood risk management to recognise and promote the protective quality of social capital alongside conventional structural and non-structural measures.     

Associations between risk judgments and demand for transport risk mitigation

The present study tested a hypothesized model regarding associations between risk sensitivity, risk perception, transport priorities, worry, and demand for risk mitigation in transport. An additional aim was to investigate differences in risk perception, worry, risk sensitivity, transport priorities, and demand for risk mitigation in age-groups, gender, and educational levels. A mail survey was conducted in a representative sample of the Norwegian public over 18?years (n?=?1947) in 2008. The response rate was 31%. The results showed that transport priorities were the strongest predictor of demand for risk mitigation. Risk perception seems to be mediated by worry. Risk sensitivity was directly associated with transport risk perception and, not as predicted, also directly with demand for risk mitigation. The two youngest age-groups (18–30 and 31–50?years) perceived the probabilities of transport accidents in private transportation as significantly larger and also judged other nontransport risks to be larger than those over 50?years of age. The youngest age-group was more worried about injuries from private transportation, but reported lower demands for risk mitigation. The findings merit further research into the relationship between risk perception and demand for risk mitigation. The results indicated that younger individuals were more worried about injuries and assessed the probability of accidents to be larger, while they report a lower demand for risk mitigation compared to older age-groups.     

Fuel Risk Management at American Electric Power

The senior management team and board of directors at American Electric Power (AEP) have emphasized the importance of an Enterprise Risk Management approach for dealing with the wide array of risk exposures that the firm faces. Senior management has put in place a risk governance structure that facilitates the identification of major risk exposures, assesses their impact on the firm's overall risk profile, and interacts the risk management process with the strategic planning process. Central to this structure is the firm's Risk Executive Committee, which includes the senior leadership of the firm and the Enterprise Risk Oversight staff. Members of the AEP Enterprise Risk Oversight group have just returned from a meeting of the Risk Executive Committee. The discussion at the meeting focused on an event that recently came to the firm's attention—an unexpected disruption in the firm's coal supply over the coming year due to necessary repairs in railroad facilities near the coal source. By the end of the week, the Enterprise Risk Oversight group needs to communicate with the relevant teams within the organization as part of its effort to identify the potential repercussions of the event for the enterprise. In addition, the Risk Executive Committee would like the groups to identify other possible adverse events that could occur and steps that should be taken now in preparation.     

The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination

This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk – i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Risk management theory suggests protection by insurers and other corporations against the largest cat events is most valuable. However, most insurers purchase relatively little cat reinsurance against large events, and premiums are high relative to expected losses. To understand why the theory fails, we examine transactions that look to capital markets, rather than traditional reinsurance markets, for risk-bearing capacity. We develop eight theoretical explanations and find the most compelling to be supply restrictions associated with capital market imperfections and market power exerted by traditional reinsurers.     

An Examination of the Equity Market Response to The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act Across Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, and Insurance Firms

Abstract:  This paper examines the wealth effects of the events surrounding the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 and changes in systematic risk from the pre-Act period to the post-Act period for commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance firms. The results suggest that investment banks and insurance firms are better positioned to exploit the benefits of product-line diversification opportunities allowed by the legislation compared to commercial banks that experience no significant market reaction. Further evidence indicates a significant risk shift and overall reduction in riskiness for the financial sectors under consideration around the event period.     

Enterprise risk management: A systems-thinking framework for the event identification phase

Guidelines for developing and implementing a program of enterprise risk management have been developed by the Committee on Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission. One component of this risk management program is event identification, which involves developing a list of events that could affect the ability of the enterprise to meet its strategic and operating objectives. The guidelines establish objectives for event identification and suggest general procedures for identifying events that represent business risks. In this paper, I describe how systems-thinking could provide a framework to identify events that should be considered during risk assessment by (a) creating a map of the organization's value chain that specifies relationships among the atomic components of the business model, and (b) using a taxonomy of categories to analyze those relationships and identify events that could threaten business process performance.     

The implications of empirical data for risk

It is of interest for national governments to assess strategic issues such as natural hazards and anthropogenic threats with some reference to risk, in order to support prioritisation of treatment solutions. With most threats of strategic relevance such as earthquakes, pandemics and terrorism following a distribution in size of events, representation of the risk for a threat as a single frequency–consequence pair is often inadequate as this single pair may exclude a significant portion of data and their contribution to total risk. Identifying the entire distribution of event sizes and their frequencies is better suited for understanding the relative contributions to total risk from high and low consequence events. If the distribution of event sizes does follow a law, the finite size of data-sets makes identifying the law difficult. This paper outlines the steps required to utilise empirical data to inform the risk of strategic threats and support decision-makers to prioritise treatment options according to their relative contributions to total risk. Potential pitfalls and limitations are also described.     

Challenges and opportunities for pre-crisis emergency risk communication: lessons learned from the earthquake community

Abstract

Prior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle.