Online monitoring and assessment of emerging risk in conventional industrial plants: possible way to implement integrated risk management approach and KPI’s

Existing methodologies and practices do not provide enough possibility for online monitoring and assessment of emerging risks occurring as a result of a change in technology, product, operating conditions, as well as in organization of activities in conventional industrial plants. Typical today’s off and online methods and corresponding software packages are used as risk assessment methods, while various risk aspects (such as: process risks, process equipment integrity risks, organizational risks, and health and environmental risks) are being assessed and treated independently. However, it is clear that risk assessment and making decisions in line with that has to be based on information collected from different (independent) sources in online mode. Also, the fact that additional risks in operations may occur due to unexpected changes in technology, accidents or unexpected process equipment degradation should be taken into account. When monitoring and process management systems are being designed and developed, only the process aspect and process risk are usually analyzed, while other risk aspects are not taken into account (like health and environmental risks). A new approach, to be presented in this paper, provides a possibility of online monitoring and assessment of risks (e.g. in petrochemical industry, power industry, etc.).     

旱灾风险的特征及其防范研究——由西南旱灾和冬麦区大旱引发的思考

旱灾不是所有自然灾害中发生频率最高、等级最重,却是受灾人数最多、影响范围最广的一种自然灾害.旱灾的缓发性、后延性、复杂性特征,容易引发饥荒、贫困、政治冲突甚至社会动荡等风险,故旱灾的风险管理日益成为一个国家自然灾害管理或社会管理的重要内容.传统的"危机管理"模式对旱灾等自然灾害管理的作用有限,"综合风险防范"模式具有很...     

综合风险管理：“十二五”的新命题

当前中国已经进入“双转”的第三阶段,即经济社会双重转型的全面深化阶段。在这一阶段,“双转”期间的利益摩擦和冲突迅速凸显。“十二五”期间,我国宏观社会经济面临金融风险、三农风险、生态风险、公共风险等“四大风险”,其背后的风险因素包括强国与富民、先富与后富、虚拟经济与实体经济、经济发展与生态保护、经济建设与社会建设、市场失...     

金融风险网格化管理:理论基础、框架建设及实践运用

防范和化解风险对于维护金融稳定意义重大。本文借助网格化管理的思路,在微观层面上探索抓早抓小、实现监测全覆盖的有效路径,建立了金融风险网格化管理框架,将各部门金融监管权“行使”中的协同和信息技术、网格力量等“手段”的合力融入其中。本文论述了该框架的理论基础,借助系统分析法,阐释了将“网格化”思路引入金融风险监测的必要性,从理论条件、客观条件和主观条件三个方面分析了当前开展金融风险网格化管理的可行性,在此基础上,详细介绍了山东省金融风险网格化管理框架建设情况和其辖内两种网格化管理试点模式,进而指出金融风险网格化管理是一种可操作性强的风险监测方式,且具有推广借鉴意义。最后,对下一步构建“平台+网格”矩阵式管理体系提出建设性意见。     

网上银行的法律风险管理探讨

随着金融创新和网上银行业务的迅猛发展,网上银行法律风险管理问题日显重要。本文认为中国要借鉴国内外银行在网上银行法律风险管理架构与工作机制等方面的做法与经验,结合中国网上银行法律风险管理现状,着力解决好相关法律条文仍需细化、管理制度执行落实亟待加强、管理配套机制仍显不足、管理运行尚不到位等问题。本文从转变管理思维、创新管理模式、搭建管理平台、打造管理人才队伍、优化管理环境等5个方面,提出了强化网上银行法律风险管理的对策措施,以期为进一步优化网上银行法律风险管理体系并提升风险管理水平提供思路。     

Emerging risk of autoignition and fire in underground coal storage

The risk and prevention of autoignition in underground coal storage facilities are reviewed in the light of the recent incidents of smouldering fires. Also, the opportunities are considered on the efficiency of the alternatives to prevent and extinguish closed-space fires. The complexities in avoiding and extinguishing underground fires are highlighted in the case example, describing the observations and outcome of a smouldering coal fire in the storage. The principles of self-heating and most critical factors in spontaneous combustion such as the condition and quality of coal are fairly well known, but usually only provide partial help in fire prevention. The documented cases and the case example suggest that nitrogen injection can be useful for extinguishing controllable fires. Three-phase foams and oxygen-displacing exhaust gases appear preferable against uncontrolled fires, particularly if access to the fire area is limited or impossible. Otherwise, efficient fire extinction during power plant operation can be challenging, as any air ingress tends to feed the fire and results in losses of the extinguishing agent and the heating value of coal. Methods and indicators for detecting and predicting the ignition are discussed, and improvements are suggested to enhance the storage and plant availability.     

How did enterprise risk management first appear in the Korean public sector?

This research addresses the rise and fall of the Crisis Management Guideline of Public Organizations (CMGPO) from a historical perspective. In the Korean public sector, as a form of enterprise risk management (ERM), CMGPO is not designed to be merely a tool of financial risk management but also to be a policy tool for crisis management. CMGPO emerged within the conflict between integrated crisis management and dispersed crisis management. The purpose of CMGPO is to bureaucratically integrate the crisis management of public organizations with the governmental crisis management system. ERM as a form of self-regulation is entangled with the pre-existing command and control of the Korean government over integrated crisis management. As a result, CMGPO is characterized as ‘enforced self-regulation’ rather than self-regulation; this is a fundamental idea in ERM.     

A longitudinal study of concern and judged risk: the case of Ebola in the United States, 2014–2015

The goal of the present study was to investigate whether playing a serious game concerning natural and man-made risks leads to increased risk awareness and additional information search. As an experimental task, we developed a serious board game. Fifty-six students participated in the experiment; half of them played the serious game whereas the other half only filled in a questionnaire at pretest and posttest (after two weeks). Participants who had played the game were more aware of risks in their own environment. Furthermore, playing the serious game counterbalanced the decline in self-efficacy as seen in the control condition. In both conditions, participants gathered more information on natural risks. This positive effect in the control condition is probably a side effect of the method used: a reasonably elaborate questionnaire in combination with a delay of two weeks. In all, the results provide a positive basis for further development of the game and to use it on a larger scale to empower citizens to take more responsibility for their own safety.     

新巴塞尔资本协议与商业银行操作风险量化管理

由于<新巴塞尔资本协议>把风险区分为市场风险、信用风险和操作风险,同时把操作风险纳入到资本充足率的计算之中;使得金融界对它的关注显著提高,并对量化操作风险提出了迫切要求.值得注意的是,国际上一些大银行在量化和度量操作风险管理上已经积累了较为丰富的经验,并取得一定的成就.目前我国的金融机构缺乏风险意识,尤其是在操作风险方面基本没有什么量化操作风险的科学方法,不能正确反映所承受的风险,操作风险的管理水平亟待提高.面对加入WTO之后国际金融机构在国内市场上的激烈竞争,我国金融机构应广泛借鉴国外商业银行的成功经验,加强操作风险的量化管理和研究.     

Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.     

“两头在外”企业的银行融资风险控制

“两头在外”是一种较为特殊的企业经营模式，其核心特点是企业资金的“境外循环”，因此对银行的融资风险控制也提出了更高的要求。本文在分析“两头在外”企业经营模式的特点和成因的基础上，结合不同的核销方式以及银行融资的品种对“两头在外”企业的融资风险进行了深入探讨。风险防范不仅取决于企业的贸易方式，而且取决于收汇核销方式等多重因素。因此，实践中必须对企业的贸易方式、收汇核销方式详加分析，否则很容易导致融资品种与融资比例的错配，在此基础上本文提出了控制融资风险的基本原则。     

"两头在外"企业的银行融资风险控制

"两头在外"是一种较为特殊的企业经营模式,其核心特点是企业资金的"境外循环",因此对银行的融资风险控制也提出了更高的要求.本文在分析"两头在外"企业经营模式的特点和成因的基础上,结合不同的核销方式以及银行融资的品种对"两头在外"企业的融资风险进行了深入探讨.风险防范不仅取决于企业的贸易方式,而且取决于收汇核销方式等多重因素.因此,实践中必须对企业的贸易方式、收汇核销方式详加分析,否则很容易导致融资品种与融资比例的错配,在此基础上本文提出了控制融资风险的基本原则.     

Coming of age – a comparative study of emerging foreign exchange markets

We developed a market maturity index as a composite of the relative liquidity index (which was used historically to measure market maturity) and a market sophistication index, constructed by analyzing market volume and transaction data. We also constructed a risk management index using volatility and V2 (volatility of the volatility) to measure ease of risk management. Five (out of 14) emerging markets we studied – India, Brazil, Malaysia, Turkey and Poland – improved their risk management index scores from 2007 to 2009, suggesting increasing maturity. On the other hand, South Africa, Taiwan and South Korea, all markets that had seemed reasonably mature in 2007, performed extremely poorly from a risk management perspective in 2009, suggesting that their original high market maturity index scores were probably not very stable.     

Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions

The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the underlying nexus of stock market returns and volatility in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by using the GARCH-M model. We find that volatility is time-varying in all countries, which indicates substantial variation in the degree of risk across time. However, we do not find empirical support that this time-varying volatility significantly explains expected returns, except in the case of Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and the MENA region portfolio. Our findings show that stock return volatility is negatively correlated with stock returns in these three markets under the assumption of investor risk aversion. This lends some support to the hypothesis of a volatility-driven negative relationship in the literature. The policy implications of our results are discussed.