Dealing with risk–risk interdependencies and trade-offs in relation to development and use of new technologies

The paper deals with the recognized need to systematically explore trade-offs in modern among single risks in modern risk management systems. These risk trade-offs have often been downplayed as ‘side effects’ or ‘unintended consequences’ and, even more often, poorly examined, quantified, and managed. The paper proposes how to deal with the real or possible trade-offs and within a framework which covers also the emerging risks: from early notion and indications up to fully developed and recognized (mature) risks. The trade-offs have been quantified primarily by means of indicators key/safety performance indicators. The framework relies very much on the ideas proposed by IRGC, ISO 31000, Solvency directive and other recognized concepts and takes practical examples from the running EU project iNTeg-Risk.     

Risk governance and emerging technologies: learning from case study integration

Emerging technologies are underway in a wide array of industrial applications and need fields. When innovating on technologies, one main objective is to improve the management of safety related to their emerging risks. The iNTeg-Risk project undertook 17 case studies covering current key innovations and focusing on their corresponding risks. Thus, a major challenge is to integrate the case study research into a common framework on adequate future risk and safety concepts which might serve policy and stakeholder decision-makers as a background for risk-related decisions in the future. Within this paper, we looked on similarities and disparities on how these case studies assess, manage, and communicate risk issues. A telephone survey with case study task leaders has been carried out in order to identifying the state-of-the-art of how the case studies deal with risk governance issues.     

First steps in developing an automated aerial surveillance approach

Partners in emerging risk representative application (ERRA) A3 ‘Emerging risks related to the industrial use of automated and un-manned surveillance of industrial infrastructure’ develop a set of new technologies to automate aerial surveillance by collecting images with a drone and automatically processing them to identify threats to buried oil and gas transmission pipelines. Progress on two aspects is presented, on one hand, technology development, and on the other hand, dealing with the emerging risks associated with these new technologies. Technology development covers three functions assembled in a workflow:

? Image collection via a light drone with an autonomous navigation system and image geographical positioning system (GPS) referencing capabilities.

? Image automated pre-processing: image assembly and georeferencing.

? Threat detection: image analysis by change detection is performed using Definiens software for identifying external interferences like construction work and excavations threatening the pipeline.

This set of technologies is perceived as an emerging risk that is appraised from several points of view:

? Technology: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), image georeferencing and assembly, change detection for threat identification.

? Human and Organisational and Communication: investigate the acceptance of this technology by the population and local authorities.

? Regulatory: check conditions that will ensure acceptance of operational use of light drones in some European countries.

? This general approach is needed to ensure both technology optimisation and the shortest path to reliable practical applications.     

As Time Goes By: The Beginnings of Social and Behavioural Science Risk Research

Attempts at studying risk issues in the social and behavioural sciences have now been going on for about 30 years. A brief summary of the first Swedish project, launched in 1975, and now available on the Internet site www.dynam‐it.com/risk, is presented. It was a fairly large‐scale attempt to review work then available or in a start‐up phase in several disciplines, mainly in the social sciences, but also in some of the humanities and in technology. The usual problems of interdisciplinary work were met with, and are briefly noted here. However, there was also a philosophical rift between empirical and theoretical/conceptual approaches which surfaced in requirements of “a theory of risk” and an accompanying and integrated analysis of risk generation in society. These requirements are as difficult to meet today as they were in the 1970s, and in some quarters they are just as demanding. However, the quest for “a theory of risk” is arguably meaningless, and fruitful research on risk topics is hardly to be expected to be the result from merely analysing the meaning of the word. Risk is just a four‐letter word.     

Biomedical risks and citizenship: depoliticizing cell site deployment in the Netherlands and Southern California

Cell phone technology has become a ubiquitous quasi-utility worldwide. Meanwhile, controversies around its health risks are continually emerging in locations around the world. In this paper, we argue that the ongoing controversy is primarily the effect of practices that are trying to govern cell site risks, rather than inherent uncertainties or qualities of the technology. We understand this as a process of medicalization that engenders bio-citizenship. We extend bio-citizenship theory by exposing how actors show an astute and reflexive awareness of the mobilizing potential of medicalization.

We study the governance practice of cell site deployment in the Netherlands and Southern California, USA and investigate how the risk issues and citizenship concerning cell site deployment are co-produced in four main governance practices. Network roll-out practices move health risks backstage, prevention practices push health risks and uncertainties into the future. Design practices actively avoid cell site risks, whereas care practices contain them. Government and industry have become aware of the contentious effect of cell site deployment and govern this to protect the roll-out of the technology. We call this depoliticization. Depoliticization can unintendedly open up new avenues for citizen mobilization.     

INCORPORATING COUNTRY RISK IN THE VALUATION OF OFFSHORE PROJECTS

Offshore projects, especially those in emerging economies, are generally viewed as more risky, and thus as contributing less to shareholder value, than otherwise comparable domestic investments. Emerging economies are typically more volatile than the economies of industrialized countries. They also present a greater array of risks that are (perceived as being) primarily of a downside nature, such as currency inconvertibility, expropriation, civil unrest, and general institutional instability. Further, because such risks are relatively unfamiliar to the investing companies, the companies are likely to make costly errors in early years and to require more time to bring cash flows and rates of return to acceptable steady-state levels. To reflect these higher risks and greater unfamiliarity, many companies include an extra premium in the discount rate they apply to offshore and, particularly, emerging-market projects. However, the basis for these discount rate adjustments is often arbitrary. Such adjustments do not properly reflect objective information available about either the nature of these risks, or about the ability of management to manage them. Nor do they take into account the reality that the risks stemming from unfamiliarity fall over time as the firm progresses along the learning curve. As a result, companies often “over discount” project cash flows in compensating for these risks, and thus unduly penalize offshore projects. More important, adjusting for country risk using arbitrary adjustments to the discount rate fails to focus management's attention on strategic and financial actions can be taken to reduce risk—notably, actions capable of transferring some of the company's exposures to specific risks to different parties with comparative advantages in bearing those risks. This paper outlines a four-step procedure for assessing overseas risks that integrates these various aspects:

• ? Classify risks in terms of various stakeholders' comparative advantage in risk-taking based on their: (a) existing portfolio of assets; (b) access to information; and (c) capabilities for reducing risk.
• ? Allocate risk through project structuring and financial engineering to exploitthese comparative advantages.
• ? Adjust resulting cash flows (relative to their most-likely levels) for (a) the impact of “asymmetric” risks; (b) learning effects; and (c) potential competitive options and/or barriers to entry resulting from comparative advantage in dealing with risks.
• ? Discount resulting expected cash flows at a risk-adjusted discount rate that reflects the covariance of the cash flows with the benchmark portfolio.

     

Cosmopolitan risk community in a bowl: a case study of China’s good food movement

Abstract

Ulrich Beck fundamentally transformed our way of thinking about human interdependence through his three core theses on risk, individualisation and cosmopolitanisation. However, two commonly observed deficiencies in Beck’s grand theory were its Eurocentric orientation and a lack of empirical grounding. Based on 5 focus groups and 14 interviews with participants of the emerging Clean Food Movement in China, this paper extends the Beckian discussion outside Europe. Through examining how individuals understand both ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ risks associated with contemporary food consumption, this paper demonstrates that in the face of unpredictable and incalculable harms, risks are not seen as a ‘thing’, but are translated into ‘causal relations’. Subsequently, for Chinese stakeholders, the best way to safeguard food risks is to enact more visible and functioning interdependent relations in the food system. This in turn has given rise to new forms of communities which cut across conventional geographic, socio-economic and political boundaries. The paper deepens a Beckian theorisation in two ways. First, it demonstrates that the ‘enabling’ effect of risk towards a cosmopolitan society is not limited to obvious global crises, such as climate catastrophes and financial meltdown. In fact, the mundane yet intimate concern of putting ‘good’ food in one’s dinner bowl already presses actors to form new social solidarities that are cosmopolitan in nature. Second, it goes beyond Beck’s assertion that the risk society has culminated in a cosmopolitan moment, and explores how a performative cosmopolitan community reshapes the ‘relations of definition’ to mitigate risks on the ground.     

Influences of individual-level characteristics on risk perceptions to various categories of environmental health and safety risks

Over the last five decades, social science researchers have examined how the public perceives the risks associated with a variety of environmental health and safety (EHS) hazards. The body of literature that has been emerged diverse both in the methodology employed to collect and analyze data and in the subject of study. The findings have confirmed that risk perceptions vary between groups of individuals as well as between categories of EHS risks. However, the extant literature on EHS risk perceptions has failed to provide empirical insights into how risk perceptions can be best explained according to the interplay of both (1) the category of EHS hazard appraised and (2) the prominent individual-level characteristics that best explain observed risk perception differences. This study addresses this deficiency in the literature by providing insights into the individual and cumulative roles that various individual-level variables play in characterizing risk perceptions to various categories of EHS risks including ‘agentic risks’ like street drug use and cigarette smoking, ‘emerging technological risks’ like nanoparticles and cloning, and ‘manufacturing risks’ like air and chemical pollution. Our data are drawn from the 2009 Citizens, Science, and Emerging Technologies national study of United States households that investigated public perceptions of EHS risks, traditional and emerging media use, and various individual characteristics like personal demographics, socioeconomic factors, and perceptual filters. The findings show that some categories of EHS risks like those associated with emerging technologies may be more easily predicted than other categories of risks and that individual-level characteristics vary in their explanative power between risk categories even among a single sample of respondents.     

Understanding accounting as a career: an immersion work experience for students making career decisions

This paper reports on a project which is designed to increase the participation of high school students in accounting work experience placements. The focus of the paper is on an Australian-based project which overcomes the identified barriers to offering high school accounting work experience placements with a resultant increase in the number and quality of placements offered. The research project responds to a decline in both the number and quality of students enrolling in accounting degree programmes in Australia. The paper draws on the work experience, social psychology, careers, and accounting education literatures to design a ‘connective’ model (Guile &; Griffiths, 2001 Guile, D., &; Griffiths, T. (2001). Learning through work experience. Journal of Education and Work, 14(1), 113–131. doi: 10.1080/13639080020028738[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) of accounting work experience for high school students. The project adopts an action research methodology which engages professional accounting practice, high school career advisors, and the university sector to deliver a structured work experience programme which addresses barriers to participation in accounting work experience and improves the quality of the work experience ‘experience’ for both employers and students.     

Risk as perceived by the German public: pervasive risks and “switching” risks

In 2001, a major project on the perception and evaluation of risks in southern Germany was conducted consisting of survey data as well as of semi‐structured interviews. With reference to the psychometric paradigm, this article analyzes public risk perception, pointing out the perceived risk semantic for nuclear energy, GM‐food, mad cow disease (BSE), crime, global climate change, mobile telephony and its radiation risks. These hazards reveal different patterns of risk perception and different levels of risk acceptability. Secondly, a comparison of qualitative and quantitative findings will be conducted: qualitative analyses indicate that the results of quantitative rating scales on the perception, evaluation and acceptance of technical and environmental hazards might be misleading since the public's focus on risks as elicited by open association stimuli relies much more on ‘everyday‐life’ and ‘pervasive’ risks than for instance on hazards emerging from new technologies. The relevance of technological risks tends to be dependent on the context: If explicitly mentioned in newscasts, in debates or listed in questionnaires memories, fears or other immediate responses become activated, yet they may be forgotten a short time later. We have called this phenomenon “switching effect” and the respective risks “switching risks”. In standardized opinion polls such ‘switching effects’ may evoke firm judgments, even if the importance in the interviewee's mental representation seems marginal.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification (HAZID) in safety reports has become progressively more difficult to achieve. Several major accidents in Europe in recent years, such as Buncefield and Toulouse, were not even considered by their site ‘Seveso-II’ Safety Case. One of the reasons is that available HAZID methodologies take no notice of apparently least likely events. Nonidentified scenarios thus constitute a latent risk, whose management is extremely complex and open ended. For this reason, the EC project iNTeg-Risk, in one of its tasks, aimed to investigate the issue of atypical scenarios and explain how they could have been identified. This study wants to describe the approach used and its immediate results, paving the way towards a new method for the identification of atypical accident scenarios. An in-depth accident analysis of some of these accidents was performed, in order to outline general features of plants in which they occurred, their causes, consequences, and lessons learned. This analysis followed a precise common scheme, which allowed a systematic approach to the problem by the experts involved. Based on the findings, failures connected to risk management and risk appraisal were identified. Three main basic issues in risk appraisal were identified: the low perception of emerging risks related to atypical accident scenarios, the lack of knowledge about related events, such as early warnings, and the incapability of current techniques in leading analysts to the identification of atypical scenarios.     

Travelling risks: How did nanotechnology become a risk in India and South Africa?

India and South Africa have invested in nanotechnology since the early 2000s and have identified risks to human health and the environment as an important issue for governance. This is exemplary for a wider trend in which ‘developing countries’ play an increasingly prominent role in the development, production and use of emerging technologies. This validates the claim of the world risk society thesis that countries around the world are now confronted with the risks of emerging technologies. Little is known, however, about the way developing countries deal with the potential risks of emerging technologies. Starting from the observation that the risk colonization of nanotechnology in developing countries cannot be taken for granted, this article draws upon the relational theory of risk in order to investigate how nanotechnology became understood as an object of risk in South Africa and India. The article shows that nanotechnology was constituted as an object of risk in rather different ways in India and South Africa, demonstrating that the spread of risk discourses – and the emergence of a world risk society – cannot be understood without attending to the local context. The article shows that way risk is understood and dealt with changes as risk discourses travel around the world, giving many different faces to the world risk society.     

Strong Increases in Downside Risk Aversion

A ranking of risk preferences is of economic interest insofar as it leads to unambiguous comparative statics predictions, and for this to be the case, the ranking must be a strict partial ordering. The ranking by greater risk aversion meets this demand at the second order, and yields a variety of well-known predictions concerning the effect of greater risk aversion on demands for insurance and risky assets, among many other applications. There has been less success at the third order, where ranking preferences by aversion to downside risk has not produced a strict partial ordering. The problem is that account has not been taken of the fact that an increase in downside risk aversion must induce changes in risk aversion as well. We propose a definition of stronger downside risk aversion that does yield a strict partial ordering by requiring a nested increase in both second- and third-order risk aversion, so that v is more strongly downside risk averse than u if v is more risk averse and more downside risk averse than u. We demonstrate that v being more strongly downside risk averse than u is characterized by v never liking any change in the probability distribution for y that induces a third-order stochastic dominance deterioration in the distribution for u(y). We apply the definition to obtain intuitive comparative statics predictions in the precautionary saving problem, and relate the definition to alternatives proposed in the literature.     

Towards democratic governance of uncertainty? Contesting notions of participation,control and accountability

Managing risk in international society has posed a new challenge not only to states and international organisations, but also to experts, scientists and citizens. It has generated a demand for new sets of laws, regulations, instruments and governing bodies to tackle various risks such as natural disasters, economic and financial crises, and unintended consequences of policy reforms. Accordingly, new modes of interactions between states, experts and citizens seem to be emerging across countries and in different high-risk sectors. Little research has been done to illuminate interactive and dynamic aspects of emerging governance and regulatory arrangements and their impact on participation, control and accountability in liberal democracies. This special issue has assembled research papers and commentaries from practitioners and academics which critically examine these themes and explore what future research on the ‘world risk society’ could offer to political science and beyond.     

Leveraged Lévy processes as models for stock prices

Adopting a constant elasticity of variance formulation in the context of a general Lévy process as the driving uncertainty we show that the presence of the leverage effect? ?One explanation of the documented negative relation between market volatilities and the level of asset prices (the ‘smile’ or ‘skew’), we term the ‘leverage effect’, argues that this negative relation reflects greater risk taking by the management, induced by a fall in the asset price, with a view of maximizing the option value of equity shareholders. in this form has the implication that asset price processes satisfy a scaling hypothesis. We develop forward partial integro-differential equations under a general Markovian setup, and show in two examples (both continuous and pure-jump Lévy) how to use them for option pricing when stock prices follow our leveraged Lévy processes. Using calibrated models we then show an example of simulation-based pricing and report on the adequacy of using leveraged Lévy models to value equity structured products.     

Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis

We apply the powerful, flexible, and computationally efficient nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to analyze real estate mortgage data. CART is particularly appropriate for our data set because of its strengths in dealing with large data sets, high dimensionality, mixed data types, missing data, different relationships between variables in different parts of the measurement space, and outliers. Moreover, CART is intuitive and easy to interpret and implement. We discuss the pros and cons of CART in relation to traditional methods such as linear logistic regression, nonparametric additive logistic regression, discriminant analysis, partial least squares classification, and neural networks, with particular emphasis on real estate. We use CART to produce the first academic study of Israeli mortgage default data. We find that borrowers features, rather than mortgage contract features, are the strongest predictors of default if accepting icbadli borrowers is more costly than rejecting good ones. If the costs are equal, mortgage features are used as well. The higher (lower) the ratio of misclassification costs of bad risks versus good ones, the lower (higher) are the resulting misclassification rates of bad risks and the higher (lower) are the misclassification rates of good ones. This is consistent with real-world rejection of good risks in an attempt to avoid bad ones.     

Comments by the European Accounting Association on the International Accounting Education Standards Board Consultation Paper ‘Meeting Future Expectations of Professional Competence: A Consultation on the IAESB’s Future Strategy and Priorities’

On December 2015, the International Accounting Education Standards Board (IAESB) issued a consultation paper entitled ‘Meeting future expectations of professional competence: A consultation on the IAESB’s future strategy and priorities’. Its aim is ‘to obtain public comment on its vision for the next five years and the strategic priorities it believes need to be addressed in serving the public interest’ [International Accounting Education Standards Board [IAESB]. (2015a). Meeting future expectations of professional competence: A consultation on the IAESB’s future strategy and priorities. Consultation paper. Retrieved from https://www.ifac.org/publications-resources/consultation-paper-meeting-future-expectations-professional-competence, p. 3]. This article reports the answers of the European Accounting Association to the questions asked in the consultation paper. The comments suggest a reinforcement of the entry requirements that would include a proper education background, advanced levels of both some technical competences and interpersonal/communication skills as well as a very strong ethical commitment. They also recommend a more thorough development process for the continuous education of accountants, a stronger link between practitioners and academia, insights for new IESs and more effective communication strategies about IAESB activities.     

How (not) to talk about the uncertain: siting geological disposal for highly radioactive waste in the Czech Republic

There is an ongoing controversy in the Czech Republic over where to site a deep geological repository for the country’s radioactive waste. Recently, the negotiations between municipalities and state authorities responsible for radioactive waste management experienced a sharp turn: after several years of dialogue guaranteed by the promise of the state authorities not to start site investigations at preselected sites without the consent of affected municipalities, the state authorities suddenly decided not to keep this promise, and to start site investigations without the municipalities’ consent, saying that time for dialogue will come after the site investigations will have been completed. This article explores the period of the failed dialogue with respect to how risks and uncertainties were treated in the negotiations. Drawing on two strands of scholarship on risk and uncertainty, the risk governance school and the STS perspectives on sociotechnical controversies, two paradigms for dealing with risk and uncertainty are outlined. These are used as a framework to analyse how implementers and local stakeholders articulated possible risk or uncertainty issues in negotiations about the Czech geological disposal between 2009 and 2013. The analysis shows that whereas the implementers adopt (sometimes even an extreme version of) the risk-based paradigm, the positions of the local stakeholders seem to be mixed. These observations lead to two conclusions: first, at the theoretical level, perhaps some of the STS literature was too quick to assume that people ‘want’ uncertainty. Second, at the practical level, it is suggested that in the light of the failed dialogue, it might be worth for the implementers to take a lesson from the uncertainty-based paradigm, and consider the possibility that perhaps still more work needs to be done in order to turn uncertainty into risk.     

Solvency II,asset liability management,and the European bond market – theory and empirical evidence

It is already foreseeable that Solvency II will tie capital requirements to a very comprehensive risk definition including underwriting and market risks. The new regulatory framework will demand more sophisticated tools to detect interest rate risks on both sides of the balance sheet in an integrated approach. Efforts by life insurers to level these risks could lead to an increased demand for long term fixed income securities. At this point the question arises if this industry wide change in asset demand will have or already has had an impact on prices of long-term bonds and the yield curve in the Euro-Zone?