‘Unproductive’ sectors and economic growth: a theoretical analysis

This paper examines the role of service, nonmarket and unproductive activity sectors in causing stagnation. The literature on this subject is critically discussed and it is argued that although these three sectors are not the same, the discussion of their roles raises similar theoretical issues regarding the nature of sectoral distinctions and macroeconomic structure. Three simple models are developed to illustrate how these ‘unproductive’ sectors may or may not cause stagnation. It is concluded that more attention should be given to sectoral distinctions and macroeconomic structures before these sectors are dismissed as being ‘unproductive’.     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union

We consider monetary–fiscal policy interactions in a monetary union. If monetary and fiscal authorities have different ideal output and inflation targets, the Nash equilibrium output or inflation or both are beyond the ideal points of all authorities. Leadership of either authority is better. Fiscal discretion entirely negates the advantage of monetary commitment: The optimal monetary rule is equivalent to discretionary leadership of monetary over fiscal policy. Agreement about ideal output and inflation creates a monetary–fiscal symbiosis, yielding the ideal point despite disagreement about the relative weights of the two objectives, for any order of moves, without fiscal co-ordination, and without monetary commitment.     

Fiscal policy simulations – a comparison of UK models

The problem of endowing large applied general equilibrium models with numerical values for parameters is formidable. For example, a complete set of own- and cross-price elasticities of demands for the MONASH model of the Australianeconomy involves in excess of 50000 items. Invoking the minimal assumptions that demand is generated by utility maximization reduces the load to about 26000 - obviously still a number much too large for unrestrained econometric estimation. To obtain demand systems estimates for a dozen or so generic commodities at a top level of aggregation (categories like ‘food’, ‘clothing and footwear’, etc.), typically Johansen's lead has been followed, and directly additive preferences imposed upon the underlying utility function. With the move beyond one-step linearized solutions of applied general equilibrium models, the functional form of the demand system adopted becomes an issue. The most celebrated of the additive-preference demand systems, the linear expenditure system (LES), has one drawback for empirical work; namely, the constancy of marginal budget shares (MBSs) - a liability shared with the Rotterdam system. To get around this, Theil and Clements used Holbrook Working's Engel specification in conjunction with additive preferences; unfortunately both Working's formulation and Deaton and Muellbauer's AIDS have the problem that, under large changes in real incomes, budget shares can stray outside the [0, 1] interval. It was such behaviour that led Cooper and McLaren to devise systems with better regularity properties. These systems, however, are not globally compatible with any additive preference system. In this paper we specify, and estimate, at the six-commodity level, an implicitly directly additive-preference demand system which allows MBSs to vary as a function of total real expenditure and which is globally regular throughout that part of the the price-expenditure space in which the consumer is at least affluent enough to meet subsistence requirements.     

‘Talking down monetary policy’ – a note

There is a recent debate about whether ultra-expansionary monetary policy is no longer effective in stimulating demand, a concern often voiced in the euro area in light of persistently low and even negative inflation. As a response, the European Central Bank (ECB) warns against ‘talking down monetary policy’ (ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio, 2016). This note uses a textbook model of optimal monetary policy to study a situation in which the public misperceives the interest rate elasticity of aggregate demand, which reflects policy effectiveness. We show that as a result of underestimating policy effectiveness demand shocks can no longer be stabilized perfectly, thus resulting in inefficient inflation and output dynamics. In the presence of misperceptions, a negative demand shock leads to a prolonged period of negative inflation rates.     

Estimation of a German money demand system – a long-run analysis

This study presents a multivariate analysis of the stability of long-run relationships between variables that influence the conduct and transmission process of the German monetary policy. The initial VAR comprises the variables real money M3, real GNP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a weighted short-term interest rate. A multivariate approach has been chosen, as this allows for more than one cointegration relationship and to test restrictions on the cointegration space. In contrast to most other studies on German monetary policy, three stable and economically plausible cointegration relationships are obtained simultaneously within the framework of the Johansen procedure: a money demand relationship, a long-run Fisher effect and a long-run relationship between the short- and the long-term interest rate. It is apparent that the structural break of German reunification can be modelled incorporating dummy variables in the model. First version received: October 1996/final version received: July 1997     

A curse or a blessing? Natural resources in a multiple growth regimes analysis

The literature on the impact of an abundance of natural resources on economic performance remains inconclusive. In this article we consider the possibility that countries may follow different growth regimes, and test the hypothesis that whether natural resources are a curse or a blessing depends on the growth regime to which an economy belongs. We follow recent work that has used a mixture-of-regressions method to identify different growth regimes, and find two regimes such that in one regime resources have a positive impact on growth, while in the other they have a negative impact or at best have no impact on growth. Our analysis of the determinants of whether a country belongs or not to the blessed resources regime indicates that the level of democracy plays an important role while education and economic institutions have no effect.     

Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis

In this paper, we examine whether a tone shock derived from European Central Bank communication helps predict ECB monetary policy decisions. To this purpose, we first use a bag-of-words approach and several dictionaries on the ECB's Introductory Statements to derive a measure of tone. Next, we orthogonalise the tone measure on the latest data available to market participants to compute the tone shock. Finally, we relate the tone shock to future ECB monetary policy decisions. We find that the tone shock is significantly and positively related to future ECB monetary policy decisions, even when controlling for market expectations of monetary policy and the Governing Council's inter-meeting communication. Further extensions show that the predictive ability of the tone shock is robust to (i) the normalization of the tone measure, (ii) alternative market expectations of monetary policy, and (iii) the horizon of macroeconomic variables used in the Taylor-type monetary policy rule. These findings highlight an additional channel through which ECB communication improves monetary policy predictability, suggesting that the ECB may have private information that it communicates through its Introductory Statements.     

Technology licensing or cost-reducing outsourcing? Game theoretical analysis on consumers' home bias effects and firms' optimal strategies

International cost-reducing outsourcing lowers consumers' perceived quality of products due to home bias. This paper envisages a vertically differentiated Cournot duopoly associated with international, cost-reducing outsourcing and non-outsourcing schemes in both licensing and non-licensing cases. It examines the impacts of home bias effect on the behaviour of firms and welfare. It shows that the optimal strategy of the patent holder varies from situation to situation associated with the home bias effect. In equilibrium, the dominant strategy for the patent holder is licencing and no outsourcing. If a licensee will outsource its inputs after upgrading the quality of its products, then the patent holder will earn higher profits than one in a case where the licensee does not outsource. If both the patent holder and the licensee produce without outsourcing, a welfare-reducing licensing occurs. On the other hand, if the licensee outsources its production inputs but the patent holder does not outsource, then a welfare-improving licensing generates a win-win situation for the patent holder and for society. Furthermore, the smaller the quality gap between two goods prior to implementing licensing, the lower the royalty rate imposed by the patent holder.     

An empirical analysis of disinvestment policy in India: does ideology matter?

Using panel data estimation for limited dependent variables and sample selection models, we identify political, industry specific, firm specific and macroeconomic variables which influenced the decision to divest central public enterprises in India between 1991–2010. We find that higher partial privatization is driven by a more right-winged coalition, lower ideological spread in the coalition and lower ideological difference between the center and the state in which the public enterprise is located. We also find that after the government selects larger, more experienced and more profitable firms, it divests the relatively less experienced and less profitable firms to a larger extent.     

Renewable energy subsidies: Second-best policy or fatal aberration for mitigation?

This paper evaluates the consequences of renewable energy policies on welfare and energy prices in a world where carbon pricing is imperfect and the regulator seeks to limit emissions to a (cumulative) target. The imperfectness of the carbon price is motivated by political concerns regarding distributional effects of increased energy prices. Hence, carbon prices are considered to be temporarily or permanently absent or endogenously constrained by their effect on energy prices. We use a global general equilibrium model with an intertemporal fossil resource sector and calculate intertemporally optimal policies from a broad set of policy instruments including carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies and feed-in-tariffs, among others. If carbon pricing is permanently missing, mitigation costs increase by a multiple (compared to the optimal carbon pricing policy) for a wide range of parameters describing extraction costs, renewable energy costs, substitution possibilities and normative attitudes. Furthermore, we show that small deviations from the second-best subsidy can lead to strong increases in emissions and consumption losses. This confirms the rising concerns about the occurrence of unintended side effects of climate policy – a new version of the green paradox. Smart combinations of carbon prices and renewable energy subsidies, however, can achieve ambitious mitigation targets at moderate additional costs without leading to high energy price increases.     

Innovation,imitation and multinationalisation in a North–South model: a theoretical note

We consider a dynamic general equilibrium product variety model of international product cycle with endogenous rate of imitation in the South; and find that a policy of strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in the South lowers the rate of product innovation, rate of multinationalisation and South–North relative wage if multinationalisation [or, foreign direct investment (FDI)] is the channel of production transfer. These results are significantly different from those obtained in the exogenous imitation model of Lai (J Dev Econ 55(1): 133–153, 1998). So a stronger IPR protection policy adopted by the South may not be interpreted as an incentive to encourage Northern FDI in the South and to raise the rate of innovation in the North.      

The efficiency of the Scandinavian banking sector – a wavelet quantile regression analysis

In this article, the Scandinavian housing financing market is analysed in order to determine whether the interest rate price-discovery processes of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are efficient. Based on wavelet quantile regression analysis, we find systematic positive asymmetric price transmission (APT) inefficiencies. We conclude that there is a very high propensity for mortgage lenders to directly increase its customers’ mortgage interest rates subsequently to an increase in its borrowing costs. However, after a corresponding borrowing cost decrease, the same mortgage lenders are very slow to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates. These positive coefficients for so-called APT effects are found in all Scandinavian countries, even if the coefficients for Norway were not statistically significant. Wavelet quantile regression analysis, with a focus on the relevant higher percentiles, is easily motivated since the mortgage rates are adjusted very infrequently. Moreover, wavelet decomposition allows a robust analysis at different time frequency scales, while simultaneously controlling for nonstationary trends, autocorrelation and structural breaks. Except for the still positive but yet insignificant and inconclusive coefficients for Norway, the result is very clear-cut. Regardless of which wavelet scaling decomposition or quantile coefficient that is studied – positive APT effects are clearly identified and confirmed on the Scandinavian mortgage market.     

Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?

This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, with the effect being more pronounced when the Debt to GDP ratio is high, possibly because they entail a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, which would have to be financed by higher future taxes.     

Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis

Metals are very important resources for industrial production, but recently they have attracted more and more attention from investors. While certainly industrial producers, consumers, and financial investors do have some influence on metal price development, the role of relevant price factors is not yet quite clear. Therefore, in this paper, we examine the explanatory power of various fundamental factors and characteristics known from financial markets, specifically on the expected returns in a unique data sample of 30 metals. We apply—to our knowledge for the first time in this context—the widely accepted method of characteristic-sorted portfolios, extended by the very recent method of two-way portfolio sorts as an alternative to classical multivariate regressions. This mostly nonparametric approach, combined with portfolio aggregation, provides very robust results. Our major finding is that the financial characteristics value and momentum have a very high predictive power for monthly returns of metal portfolios. Metal-specific fundamental factors like stocks, secondary production, apparent consumption, country concentration, mine production, or reserves perform depending on the interpretation moderately well or rather poorly, regarding some economically interpretable transformations and when using multivariate two-way sorts. Hence, from the perspective of expected returns, metals are predominantly assets, while fundamental metal-specific factors still play a non-negligible role. Thus, to a much lesser extent, metals can still be regarded as resources. Overall, the combination of financial characteristics and metal-specific fundamental factors yields the best results. With these robust results, we hope to contribute to a better understanding of metal prices and their underlying factors.     

Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach

This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy during periods of low and high financial stress in the US economy using a threshold vector autoregression model. There is evidence that expansionary monetary policy is effective during periods of high financial stress with larger responses having a higher proportionate effect on output. The existence of a cost channel effect during periods of high financial stress implies the existence of a short run output-inflation trade off during financial crises. Large expansionary monetary shocks also increase the likelihood of moving the economy out of a high financial stress regime.     

The burden of blood transfusion: a utilization and economic analysis – a pilot study in patients with chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA)

Abstract

Objective:

The objective is to measure the burden of blood transfusion of Packed Red Blood Cells (PRBCs) in patients with chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA) on the institutional outpatient transfusion center.

Methods:

This is a retrospective chart review (starting July 1, 2010, working backwards until 120 evaluable patients are accrued) at a single institutional transfusion center in the US. The mean and standard deviation (SD) were calculated for patient’s age, pre-transfusion Hgb level, and other transfusion-related activities.

Results:

One hundred and twenty records were reviewed. The majority included patients who were female (71%), African American (61%), and had either Medicare (48%) or private insurance (39%). The mean patient age was 59 years and the average pre-transfusion Hgb was 7.9?g/dL. The average patient visit to facility ranged from 213?min for one PRBC unit to 411 minutes for three PRBC units. The mean staff time for patient evaluation was 66 minutes. Actual time for transfusion was ～100?min for each PRBC unit; 90% of patients received two PRBC units. Staff was engaged in direct patient care for an average of 322?min for two PRBC units. The labor cost of transfusion (in 2011 $US) ranged from $46.13–$49.33 per PRBC unit. The estimated fully loaded bundled cost was $596.49 for transfusion of one unit of PRBC. Limitations of the study include: the site included in this study may not be applicable to all sites in practice and the evaluated patient population was varied, with the exception that all patients were treated for some type of malignancy; and the review of blood bank records for 120 patients was not 120 independent events and, as such, may not have adequately captured actual variability.

Conclusions:

This analysis quantifies expense in terms of time for administration of the transfusion, as well as costs associated with outpatient blood transfusions.     

Comparing students by a matching analysis – on early school leaving in Dutch cities

In case of regional discretionary on the implementation of policy measures, central governments often consider differences in outcomes as an indication that one policy was more effective than another policy. If uniform incentives are provided to motivate regional policy makers, these incentives can be discouraging when the underlying populations differ. Empirically, this study compares early school leaving between the four largest Dutch cities. It shows that considering regional differences as performance measures can be dangerous if differences in population characteristics are not properly taken into account. Methodologically, this study contrasts the use of a traditional probit model with a more advanced iterative matching procedure.     

Public–private wage differentials in Turkey: public policy or market dynamics?

We evaluate public–private sector wage differentials by gender in Turkey between the years 2005 and 2013. Using micro data from Household Labor Force Surveys we find a positive premium for low wage earners and a penalty of working in the public sector at the higher end of the distribution. Although the penalty has not disappeared, the price effect has increased at both ends of the distribution. The increase at the lower tail is attributed to a higher price effect in the public sector, whereas at the higher tail it has been a result of a relatively uneven wage increase in the private sector along the distribution, rather than an explicit public wage policy.     

Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?

The paper discusses how monetary and macroprudential policies can be distinguished, how appropriate goals for the two policies can be determined, whether the policies are best conducted separately or coordinately and by the same or different authorities and how they can be coordinated when desired. The institutional frameworks in Canada, Sweden and the UK are briefly compared. The Swedish example of monetary policy strongly “leaning against the wind” and the subsequent policy turnaround is summarized, as well as what estimates have been found of the costs and benefits of leaning against the wind.