The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) stands as a symbol of international cross-cultural exchange through elite-level sport. As a mega-event with a significant reliance on a specific range of weather conditions for outdoor competitions, the OWG have developed several technologies and strategies to manage weather risk. Can these climatic adaptations cope with future climate change? Based on an analysis of two key climate indicators (probability of a minimum temperature of ≤0°C, and probability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity), this paper examines how projected changes to climate will impact the ability of the 19 previous host cities/regions to provide suitable conditions for outdoor competitions in the future. The results indicate that while the 19 former OWG hosts all have a suitable climate in the 1981–2010 period, only 11 or 10 (low–high-emission scenarios) remain climatically suitable in the 2050s, with as few as 6 in the high-emission scenario of the 2080s. The analysis reveals that climate change has important implications for the future geography of OWG host cities/regions as well as broader implications for participation in winter sport.     

The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in a warmer world

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) and the Paralympic Winter Games (PWG) are showcases for winter sports. With their high dependence on weather conditions, accelerating climate change poses a challenge to these mega-events. Two indicators are used to assess the climate reliability of locations to host the Games (OWG in February, PWG in March) in the future under a low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario. Climate change will alter the geography of the Games over the twenty-first century. In a low-emission scenario, only 13 of 21 locations remain climate reliable for the OWG in the 2050s and 12 in the 2080s, whereas only 10 are reliable for the PWG (both in the 2050s and 2080s). The impact of a business-as-usual high-emission scenario is far greater, reducing the number of locations reliable for the OWG to 10 in the 2050s and 8 in the 2080s, with even fewer reliable for PWG (8 in the 2050s and only 4 in the 2080s). Adaptive responses are considered, including strengthening the climatological assessment requirements in forthcoming bid processes, the unification of the OWG and PWG (in the month of February), and considering dual host countries/regions.     

Urban Mega-Events,Evictions and Housing Rights: The Canadian Case

This article examines how community-based groups have dealt with the potential housing impacts of urban mega-events (also known as 'hallmark events') in the city. Three Canadian case studies are used- Expo '86 in Vancouver, the 1988 Calgary Winter Olympics, and the rejected proposal for the 1996 Summer Olympic Games in Toronto- to discuss a range of issues including the nature and impact of community action in forcing the organisers of mega-events to address the potential of event-related housing impacts. The research findings suggest that mega-eventrelated forced evictions should be viewed as an expected result of this form of urban restructuring as these events are used to bring new people, new facilities, and new money to cities ata rapid pace,and this goalis rarely evaluated in an open democratic manner. Further, the critical prerequisite for any effective community action to occur is the presence of an organised, strategic and resourceful coalition of community-based groups which have the capacity to analyse complex situations, act forcefully at a variety of levels, and use diverse strategies in order to take advantage of key 'openings' when seeking to achieve their goals.     

Transformation of Tourism in Beijing after the 2008 Summer Olympics: An Analysis of the Impacts in 2014

Many countries compete for the opportunity to host the Olympics because of the resulting positive impacts. However, there are also high costs associated with hosting this event. The participants of this study provided insight on how the 2008 Olympics influenced Beijing's tourism industry. This study explores the impacts of hosting the renowned Olympic Games on the transformation of the host city from the supplier perspective. Beijing tourism industry professionals and Beijing residents were considered suppliers and interviewed for the purpose of this study. Collected data reveal that the city of Beijing rapidly developed because of the mega event. Suppliers including Beijing's tourism department, government organizations, hotels, and restaurants have changed their marketing strategies over time because of the impacts of the Olympics. Additionally, Beijing has shifted to promoting a new destination image: fashion and vitality. The present findings will help future host destinations better understand the impacts of hosting the Olympics. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A call for weather condition revaluation in mega-events management

This article provides a new insight into knowledge-based management of mega-events by highlighting the significance of weather at destination selection and scheduling events as an adaptive strategy toward climate change. Concerning the environmental and socio-economic costs of weather ignorance in event management, which may result in cancelation and change of the event time, it is recommended that planners perform a preliminary study prior to publicizing an event plan. Doing so, the organizer and visitors can benefit from optimal weather at the destination, as this study advises the decision-makers of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games to reschedule the dates of this international event.     

Mega-event transport legacy in a developing country: The case of Rio 2016 Olympic Games and its Transolímpica BRT corridor

The Rio de Janeiro government, in order to prepare the city for the 2016 Olympic Games, implemented four new BRT lines (Bus Rapid Transit). One of these is the “BRT Transolímpica”, which would mainly serve the mega-event by connecting two Olympic venues, but which was justified as the integration between the northern and southern regions of the city. In this paper, the Transolímpica transport legacy, regarding urban development, was analysed to verify the influence of this BRT line on the development of its surroundings. The three-step methodology comprised a study of the surroundings of BRT stations through analyses of physical dynamics, real-estate dynamics, and relational analysis (the contextualisation of the results within the local context). The analyses cover five phases of the BRT implementation associated with the 2016 Olympic Games: candidature (2008–2010); planning and design (2010−2012); implementation, subdivided into two periods (2012–2014 and 2014–2016); and operation (2016–2018). We found that this BRT line: i) was not relevant to the occupation of the surroundings; ii) ended up accentuating the segmentation of the territory along the corridor; and iii) has been consolidating an ambiguous transport legacy in terms of urban development.     

Adapting to climate change: perceptions of vulnerability of down-hill ski area operators in Southern and Middle Finland

Climate change is likely to affect the tourism sector, particularly areas, such as snow-based tourism, that are directly dependent on climate and weather conditions. Especially vulnerable are low-lying ski areas. This study identifies the climatic factors that are crucial for economically successful operation of low-lying ski areas in Southern and Middle Finland and contemplates how these factors are seen to change with climate change. The study then analyses the preferences for and perceptions of adaptation strategies of downhill ski operators in terms of the adaptation measures they can implement or are willing to take. The findings indicate that climatic conditions set preconditions for the operation of the ski areas, but short-term operational prospects and inter-annual variability in weather conditions rather than foreseen changes in climatic conditions guide the operational decisions of the ski area operators. A key adaptation strategy to respond to uncertain snow conditions is artificial snowmaking, which lowers the vulnerability of the areas to the impacts of climate change too.     

Impact of Long‐Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand

This study estimates the determinants of domestic and foreign tourism demand using data on 28 Austrian ski resorts for the winter seasons 1986–1987 to 2007–1908. Using the dynamic panel data analysis, we find that the effect of the weather variables (e.g. snow depth, cloudiness or sunshine) is quite small, with a change in one standard deviation of the variation over time in each weather variable, leading to a 2–3 % change in overnight stays. Furthermore, domestic tourists are more sensitive to changes in weather conditions than foreign tourists. By contrast, overnight stays of foreign visitors are much more responsive to changes in income than it is the case for domestic overnight stays. The occurrence of extreme snow‐deficient winters, such as the winter of 2006–2007, in the future period will reduce overnight stays of foreign and domestic visitors by 2 and 5 %, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Olympic‐related investment and expenditure

The analysis of the impact of mega events has included frameworks that evaluate different impacts under different criteria, for example, separating impacts according to whether they occur before, during or after the event itself. Analysis of the economic impacts of such events has shown that the distributional effects between the host city and the rest of an economy can be important, and can have opposite signs. This paper introduces frameworks to show the origin of the economic scale, that is, Olympic‐related investment and expenditure, and shows how the frameworks can be used with reference to the Beijing 2008 Olympics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing preferences for mega sports event travel products: a choice experimental approach

Hosting mega sports events spreads positive destination images and generates massive tourism arrivals for the host communities. It is, therefore, important for tourism businesses to better understand what types of travel products, tailored for particular mega sports events, are purchased by sport tourists. Using a choice experimental approach, this study aims to examine how sport tourists formulate their preferences for travel products customized for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games by making intricate trade-offs among various product attributes. We utilize a gender perspective to further understand the preference dynamics embedded in segmented sport tourism markets. Study results suggest that sport tourists put distinctive weights on each of the attributes comprising the Olympic travel products. Gender differences are also identified in sport tourists’ choice decisions for sports event travel products. Based on the study findings, this paper proposes several marketing strategies to meet the needs of targeted market segments.     

Impact of weather conditions on macroscopic urban travel times

Weather conditions may significantly impact a series of everyday human decisions and activities. As a result, engineers seek to integrate weather-related data into traffic operations in order to improve the current state of practice. Travel times and speeds are two of the elements of a transportation system that may be greatly affected by the weather resulting in deterioration of roadway network performance. This study aims to investigate the impact of different intensities of rain, snow and temperature levels on macroscopic travel times in the Greater London area (UK) during the period 1 October–10 December 2009. The analysis was carried out for three 2-h periods on weekdays during the morning, afternoon and evening periods. Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) data obtained from more than 380 travel links are used in the analysis. The main finding is that the impact of rain and snow is a function of their intensity. Specifically, the ranges of the total travel time increase due to light, moderate and heavy rain are: 0.1–2.1%, 1.5–3.8%, and 4.0–6.0% respectively. Light snow results in travel time increases of 5.5–7.6%, whilst heavy snow causes the highest percentage delays spanning from 7.4% to 11.4%. Temperature has nearly negligible effects on travel times. It was also found that the longer links within outer London generally yield greater travel time decreases than those in inner London, and even higher decreases than the shortest links in central London. This research provides planners with additional information that can be used in traffic management to modify planning decisions and improve the transportation system control on a network scale under different weather conditions. In order to determine whether the weather effects are region-specific, continued research is needed to replicate this study in other areas that exhibit different characteristics.     

Inter-city travel behaviour adaptation to extreme weather events

Increased attention has been paid to travel behaviour in circumstances of extreme weather conditions that are expected with climate change, and the analyses usually address intra-city travel. There is lack of assessments on inter-city travel which has less redundancy and is more exposed to extreme weather threats. In addition, much of the research has been carried out in developed countries. This paper provides new perspectives by investigating how people adapt their inter-city travel behaviour to flooding impacts in Bangladesh. With an orthogonal design of three flooding scenarios, questionnaire data were collected in 14 coastal and inland areas. Results of the statistical analyses identify the significant impacts of flooding on people’s inter-city travel and reveal significant differences in attitudes and responses to flooding and extreme weather in coastal compared to inland locations. The main factors significantly affecting travel behaviour choice are road disruption, isolation by flood water, and flood frequency. These factors are felt differently in coastal and inland locations. The most common responses are cancelling trips or changing destinations. It is recommended that when making flooding adaptation decisions, it is important to protect road infrastructure and guarantee accessible routes in coastal areas, while offering more flood adaptation education to the inland people.     

En-route weather and place valuations for different transport mode users

With the increasing societal interest in climate change, mostly separated strands of literature have investigated the travel-behavioural, thermo-sensational and environmental–psychological effects of weather on people in everyday life. This research conceptually and statistically integrates these fragmented insights. Drawing on unique Greater Rotterdam (The Netherlands) travel diary data enriched with hourly meteorological and spatial route attributes, we analyse how weather affects different transport mode users’ en-route place valuations in terms of liveliness, friendliness and aesthetics. Our main findings indicate that windy, cloudy, cold (<15 °C) or too hot (⩾25 °C) weather conditions negatively affect en-route place valuations, either directly or through lower thermal comfort. Active mode users generally value their route surroundings more positively than motorised transport modes, however they also appear more strongly affected by weather in their thermal experiences and place valuations. Policy makers are advised to expand climate-sensitive urban planning along active transport mode infrastructures.     

Impacts of adverse weather on Arctic road transport

Arctic regions are geographically peripheral and characterized by cold climate, constantly changing weather conditions and strong seasonal variations. This article examines variations in road traffic volume due to adverse weather in an arctic region, a topic that has received little attention in the transportation literature. The subject of the case study is northern Norway's Saltfjellet mountain pass, which is part of European Highway 6 (Ev6). A succinct econometric structural equation model was used to test hypotheses regarding the impacts of fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and wind speed on passenger and freight traffic volumes. The findings indicate that there was some reduction in traffic volume during adverse weather, particularly with respect to passenger traffic. However, the day-to-day variations in traffic volumes were relatively low at the studied section of road, although it is known that generalized transport costs increase significantly in adverse weather due to delays related to poor driving conditions and closed roads. The studied region is rural with limited access to alternative routes or transport modes, thus making this portion of the road particularly important for the communities in the region. Hence, the road users have few other options than using this high-cost road in order to maintain their activities. The use of standardized parameters in transport models to predict the effect of adverse weather on traffic volume, would not be appropriate in the studied context. However, it is recommended that the benefits of reducing the extra costs that adverse weather impose on traffic are estimated and included in road-project assessment tools to capture the burden and strain imposed on road users. This to ensure that appropriate decisions are made regarding the development and improvement of transportation facilities, particularly in rural areas.     

错那：雪景中的生命体温

山南“10·26”大雪灾发生后的半个月，我们踏着未融的积雪，走进了山南地区错那县，走进了这个一度被暴雪封锁的“生命禁区”。错那县那依然被白茫茫的冰雪覆盖的大地，在经历了生死洗礼后，焕发出了新的生机。     

A Social Network Analysis of Overseas Tourist Movement Patterns in Beijing: the Impact of the Olympic Games

The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games had a great impact on the tourism industry in Beijing, especially on tourism flows and movements. This study used content analysis and social network analysis methods to examine 500 online trip diaries and analyze overseas tourist movement patterns in Beijing during the Olympics. The result revealed that overseas tourists were most interested in famous traditional attractions, and their movements were focused in the central city area of Beijing. The study identified the diversity of tourist attractions and the expansion of main visiting areas as the two main changes during the Olympics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of winter precipitation on automobile collisions,injuries, and fatalities in the United States

To better understand the links between winter precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) and travel risk, data on weather conditions and vehicle crashes, injuries and fatalities are gathered for 13 U.S. cities. A matched pair analysis is used to construct event-control pairs to determine the relative risk of crash, injury, and fatality. Winter precipitation is associated with a 19% increase in traffic crashes and a 13% increase in injuries compared to dry conditions. The type of winter precipitation (snowfall vs. freezing rain, ice pellets, or sleet) had no significant impact on the relative risk of crash. The relative risk of crash was significantly higher during the evening (1800–2359 local time) than during other times of the day. More intense precipitation led to increased relative risk of crash and injury compared to less intense precipitation. Relative risk of crash, injury, or fatality was not significantly higher during the first three winter precipitation events of the year as compared to subsequent events. The relative risk of both winter precipitation crash and injury showed no significant trend during the 1998–2008 period. Sensitivity of U.S. cities to winter precipitation varies from city to city in a manner that is not easily explained. Future research will be required to determine which safety interventions are most effective in each city and revise or expand safety programs appropriately.     

Commentary - Sport as an Avenue of Tourism Development: An Analysis of the Positive and Negative Impacts of Sport Tourism

Recognition of the negative effects that are often associated with sporting megaevents has emerged relatively belatedly in the academic literature. Much attention has focused on the economic development potential of sporting events (Burgan & Mules, 1992). Various authors suggest that positive image and identity, inward investment and tourism promotion through media coverage and the televising of sport also help to justify hosting sports mega-events. Roche (1994: 1) states that 'mega-events are short term events with long-term consequences for the cities that stage them'. In many cases, it seems, the long term consequences for the host cities are negative. It appears that with increasing scale, the potential for sporting events to create negative impacts also increases (Olds, 1998, Shapcott, 1998). Despite this, little academic attention has been paid to the tourism potential of regular season domestic sport competitions, national championships and local/regional sport. At these levels of sport the potential for negative impact is minimal, while the tourism development potential that they offer remains largely unresearched.     

Climate change adaptation in the Pacific Island tourism sector: analysing the policy environment in Vanuatu

Tourism is a growing economic sector in the South Pacific providing the region with great potential for economic development. Vanuatu and its neighbouring Small Island Developing States and Territories experience a high vulnerability to climate change impacts. The tourism sector in Vanuatu is particularly vulnerable, and it needs to develop and implement effective adaptation strategies to reduce climate change risks. Policies play an important role by providing the platform on which adaptation can occur and resilience be built. This study examines the policy environment in Vanuatu for its conduciveness to climate change adaptation. It identifies the types of adaptation processes (explicit or implicit) and types of adaptation measures (technical, business management, behavioural, policy, and research and education) and critically analyses the current tourism-related policies for their effectiveness in assisting the sector to address climate change. It is found that the majority of policies identified deal with climate change through implicit adaptation processes and mainly through the use of policy and research and education measures. The authors argue that in order to strengthen the resilience of the tourism industry, the Government of Vanuatu needs to develop and implement explicit climate change adaptation policies for the tourism sector.     

Barrier-free outdoor environments: Older peoples’ perceptions before and after implementation of legislative directives

An increased focus on international and national levels of society to meet the transportation needs of older people and people with disabilities is realized through legislation, directives and guidelines on accessibility. This paper examines effects of removing physical barriers according to current Swedish governmental accessibility directives on older peoples’ perceptions of outdoor environments (usability) and on their mobility and perceived safety as pedestrians. This paper also focuses on municipal planners’ views on the implementation of improved accessibility. A before–after study, using both qualitative and quantitative methods, is conducted. The results from the questionnaires show that older peoples’ overall satisfaction with the outdoor environment has increased after implementation; however no differences are found if physical barriers specifically are considered. Older peoples’ mobility is also unchanged; nevertheless, fewer respondents are stating difficulties in walking due to barriers in the outdoor environments as reason to avoid outdoor mobility. Problems do remain after implementation, for example concerning safety/security-related issues and inaccessible entrances and indoor environments.