产业集群边界的多视角分析

组织边界历来是经济学和管理学研究的关键问题之一并已形成丰富的相关理论成果,但对于产业集群的组织边界研究却未能得到理论界的足够重视。本文基于交易成本、分工效率、集群能力、组织生态和社会资本等多个角度,对产业集群的多重边界及其形成机理进行分析,提供了认识产业集群组织边界的多种视角。     

Mapping uncertainty in genomics

The relatively novel and dynamic science of genomics holds many unknowns for stakeholders, and in particular for researchers and clinicians, as well as for participants and patients. At a time when many authors predict a future in which genomic medicine will be the norm, it is particularly relevant to discuss the unknowns surrounding genetics and genomics, including the notions of risk and uncertainty. This article will present a discussion regarding the uncertainty pertaining specifically to high throughput sequencing approaches, including the topic of incidental findings. This discussion will be guided by a taxonomy of uncertainty conceptualised around three areas of uncertainty: the source of uncertainty, the issues of uncertainty and the loci of uncertainty. This taxonomy can be used as a tool by all stakeholders involved in genomics to help further understand and anticipate uncertainties in genomics. Furthermore, to better contextualize this information, and also because this contribution is born out of an international project titled ‘Mind the Risk’, which addresses risk information in genetics and genomics from many different disciplinary perspectives, another aim of this article is to briefly present the basic issues pertaining to the unknowns, risks, and uncertainties of genetics as well as genomics for an audience of non-geneticists. Ultimately, the mapping out of uncertainty in genomics should allow for a better characterization of the uncertainty and consequently for a better management and communication of these uncertainties to end-users (research participants and patients).     

Four types of ignorance

This paper studies alternative ways of representing uncertainty about a law of motion in a version of a classic macroeconomic targetting problem of Milton Friedman (1953). We study both “unstructured uncertainty” – ignorance of the conditional distribution of the target next period as a function of states and controls – and more “structured uncertainty” – ignorance of the probability distribution of a response coefficient in an otherwise fully trusted specification of the conditional distribution of next period׳s target. We study whether and how different uncertainties affect Friedman׳s advice to be cautious in using a quantitative model to fine tune macroeconomic outcomes.     

汇率不确定性与企业跨境并购

本文立足外部不确定性视角,提出汇率不确定性对企业重要涉外经济行为(跨境并购)影响的实物期权与风险对冲效应。本文以2000～2019年A股上市公司宣告的跨境并购为研究对象,分析发现人民币兑美元名义汇率不确定性显著降低了企业跨境并购的可能性,实物期权效应占主导;人民币名义有效汇率不确定性与企业跨境并购决策正相关,风险对冲效应占主导。横截面检验发现,人民币兑美元名义汇率不确定性对跨境并购的抑制作用在汇率交易风险和折算风险更高以及存在融资约束的企业中更为明显;有效汇率反映一国贸易条件,行业竞争激烈与汇率经济风险更高的企业,在人民币名义有效汇率不确定性加剧时更有可能进行跨境并购。最后,汇率不确定下的企业跨境并购取得了较好的财务绩效(汇率风险约束使企业并购行为更审慎高效),降低了有效汇率风险敞口。本文区分了双边汇率与有效汇率的差异,拓展了汇率波动的经济后果与跨境并购影响因素的研究范畴,为“双循环”下我国推进高质量对外开放与汇率市场化改革、有效引导国际资本流动以及企业在不确定环境下提升并购效率,提供了理论依据。     

Obituary

The environmental risk associated with genetically modified organisms (GMO) implies that new approaches to risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are needed. In this paper we discuss the role of the precautionary principle in policy responses to GMO risk. We first discuss application of the criteria in the European Environment Agency report “Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle 1896–2000” to environmental GMO risk, with focus on crop plants. Moreover, we discuss Bayesian analysis in the context of improving the informational basis for decision‐making under uncertainty. Finally, environmental uncertainties are intertwined with economic uncertainties. Providing incentives for improved risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is crucial for enhancing environmental and social responsibility and thereby facilitate implementation of precautionary approaches. We discuss environmental and social screening of companies as an example of how such incentives can be provided.     

Light me up: power and expertise in risk communication and policy-making in the e-cigarette health debates

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study.     

Human error in high hazard systems: Do we treat the problem in an appropriate way?

This article addresses the problem of human error within a technical environment. A model of a human-machine interface is presented to illustrate the work situation in an open perspective. The term human error is defined and briefly discussed. A general framework for controlling human error is presented with proactive and reactive approaches. Some well-known methods of human reliability assessment are discussed and the general limitations of the methods are elaborated. The reactive approaches are compared with proactive approaches, and the term 'safety culture' is elucidated. The importance of high reliability organizations to serve as model companies for other organizations is briefly discussed.     

The spillover effect of focal firms’ cybersecurity breaches on rivals and the role of the CIO: Evidence from stock trading volume

This study investigates whether there is any spillover uncertainty regarding a rival firm’s future operations upon a focal firm’s announcement of cybersecurity breaches and whether the existence of a chief information officer (CIO) in rival firms can reduce this spillover uncertainty. Using abnormal trading volume to capture the change in investors’ expectations, we show that compared with the focal firms, rival firms experience an increase in abnormal trading volume following the focal firm’s announcement of a security breach. The findings suggest that the spillover effect generates even more uncertainties toward these nonbreached rival firms regarding the impact of the focal firm’s security breach. However, CIOs in nonbreached rival firms can play a shielding role in mitigating such effects. Our study contributes to the literature on the impact of cybersecurity and has policy implications for encouraging a strategic perspective when managing cybersecurity risks.     

GUEST EDITORIAL: Cutting corners in chemical risk limitation

The first genetically modified crops and foods to be approved for commercial use in the European Union have prompted intense controversy. Food retailers and processors have been forced to take up the concerns voiced by their customers. New networks of groups have formed to oppose the technology. In response to these pressures, regulators who approved the products have had to reconsider questions they had previously dismissed or officially resolved. Governments have devised more precautionary measures of various kinds. For example, they have increased the burden of evidence for demonstrating safety, have broadened the practical definition of the ‘adverse effects’ which must be prevented, and have devised marketstage precautions for such effects. These extra measures manage the risk debate as well as any risks. In such ways, the technocratic model of European harmonization is being challenged and superseded. This may allow differences in national practices to be viewed as valuable expert resources for a different harmonization model, rather than as deviations from a universal rational norm. Regulatory conflicts offer precautionary opportunities, which could lead to more flexible and democratic procedures. Theoretical perspectives – on risk, uncertainty, precaution, European integration, expertise and the internal market – help illuminate these possibilities.     

Sociological approaches to risk: strong in analysis but weak in policy influence in recent UK developments

Sociological approaches to risk and uncertainty are well‐developed. These approaches have played an important role in analysing the significance of risk and uncertainty in modern social life. However, it is approaches based on rational actor perspectives in New Public Management that have become pre‐eminent in handling social risks in recent UK policies. This paper tackles the puzzle of why sociology is strong in critique but much weaker in policy influence by pointing to the institutional and contextual standing of approaches which offer a natural home to individual rational actor approaches within UK government.

Approaches that understand and analyse risk in statistical terms have been particularly influential in many aspects of modern life. A second stream, that has tended to attract less attention, stresses linkages between these approaches and the growth of particular institutions. The challenges faced by modern states in a post‐industrial and globalised world are widely discussed. An important response, particularly prominent in the UK and especially in social policy‐making, has been New Public Management, associated with an individual rational actor paradigm. Sociological approaches to risk have contributed a number of critiques of this development, however these critiques have failed to gain much purchase on policy‐making. One reason is the extent to which approaches which rest on an individual rational actor paradigm are entrenched within the institutional framework of policy‐making. This paradigm rests on a different approach to agency than that which is most influential in sociology.     

Capacidades,liderazgos y estrategias de gestión de organizaciones de la sociedad civil en zonas rurales

Poverty in rural areas of Mexico is still an unresolved problem. Experiences of civil society organizations in other countries show that they can be allies of the government to contribute to rural development because of their roles and capabilities. This article focuses on the role of civil society organizations to improve living conditions in rural areas of the State of Mexico by analyzing the work of six civil society organizations under a qualitative perspective. Leadership and commitment are some of the most important capabilities of their female founders. They have created and implemented management strategies that allow them to obtain and generate resources to satisfy local needs. Thus, their management strategies are seen as a methodological model and a key to work in a close partnership whit rural communities which can be seen as an added-value to civil society organizations and community participation for rural development.     

Critical factors and pathways influencing genetically modified food risk perceptions

This study aims to identify the critical factors and paths that affect the Chinese public’s risk perceptions of genetically modified (GM) foods from an emotional appraisal perspective. Using an experiment conducted with university undergraduate business students in China, we examined the evaluative pathways of the Chinese public by manipulating fairness and controllability appraisals in scenarios constructed about GM foods risk. The experiment was designed around two evaluative pathways – consequentialist and deontological perspectives – focusing on controllability and fairness. This led to a distinct set of emotional responses. It was found that both consequence-based and morality-based emotions caused stronger perceived risks toward GM foods. Understanding these responses provides new insight into how scientists and experts in China might best frame their communications about GM foods.     

德意志联邦银行财务缓冲机制及其启示

国际金融危机爆发后,主要国家中央银行纷纷进行各种常规、非常规操作,资产负债表规模较快扩张,财务状况面临较多不确定性。德意志联邦银行通过建立有效的财务缓冲机制,使用更为谨慎的会计处理手段,维护其财务实力。文章考察介绍了德央行财务缓冲机制的运作经验,并探讨了其对于我国央行如何通过完善财务制度增强抗风险能力的借鉴意义。     

Risk Communication and the Social Amplification of Public Sector Risk

Concerns exist within the public sector about the ability of organizations to communicate issues of risk. These concerns include: the nature and magnitude of risks; the vulnerability of those who may bear the consequences associated with an event; and the sense of helplessness felt by victim groups. Apart from the public sector's role as risk generator, regulator and communicator, it also has some responsibility for dealing with the consequences of a major catastrophic event through agencies such as health care and the emergency services. Under certain conditions, it is apparent that concerns over risk issues can escalate beyond a level expected by those charged with the management of that risk. Within this framework, the effective communication of risk and uncertainty is an integral, but often neglected, part of public sector activities. This article explores the process of risk communication and risk amplification and suggests a number of perspectives on policy development.     

Risk assessment of highway bridges under multiple hazards

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational framework for the quantitative risk assessment of highway bridges under multiple hazards. Risk is a crucial indicator to be considered when managing structures of great importance such as highway bridges. It associates the consequences of a structural failure or malfunction with the probability of bridge failure. Time-dependent total risk is computed and the effect of structural redundancy is investigated and implemented. The proposed framework includes the estimation of the effects of multiple common hazards such as abnormal traffic loads, environmental attacks, scour, and earthquakes. The failure probabilities associated with the considered hazards are evaluated separately using different approaches. Time-dependent failure probabilities, hazard functions, and probability density functions of the time-to-failure are also assessed for each hazard. These assessments contribute to the evaluation of risk considering the traffic flow and the local economy at the bridge location. Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are considered in this approach. Time-dependent profiles of risk, accounting for direct and indirect consequences, are obtained for an existing highway bridge.     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: A contingency perspective

In recent years, a paradigm shift has occurred regarding the way organizations view risk management. Instead of looking at risk management from a silo-based perspective, the trend is to take a holistic view of risk management. This holistic approach toward managing an organization’s risk is commonly referred to as enterprise risk management (ERM). Indeed, there is growing support for the general argument that organizations will improve their performance by employing the ERM concept. The basic argument presented in this paper is that the relation between ERM and firm performance is contingent upon the appropriate match between ERM and the following five factors affecting a firm: environmental uncertainty, industry competition, firm size, firm complexity, and board of directors’ monitoring. Based on a sample of 112 US firms that disclose the implementation of their ERM activities within their 10Ks and 10Qs filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, empirical evidence confirms the above basic argument. The implication of these findings is that firms should consider the implementation of an ERM system in conjunction with contextual variables surrounding the firm.     

Country-specific risks and geographic disclosure aggregation: Voluntary disclosure behaviour by British multinationals

Country-by-country reporting can promote accountability and corporate transparency by highlighting the activities of multinational firms in different countries. We examine the voluntary disclosure behaviour of leading British multinational firms in respect of country-specific risks. Specifically, we consider whether British multinationals' engagement in geographic disclosure aggregation/disaggregation of their country-by-country operations is associated with the country-specific business, economic, and political risks faced by their principal operating subsidiaries. We study the information disclosed in two key sections of corporate annual reports: segment information, and principal uncertainties and risks. Our findings show that British multinationals are less likely to voluntarily report their segment and risk information on a disaggregated geographic country-by-country basis if they are engaged in operations in countries associated with higher levels of country-specific risks. Country-specific risk disclosures are an important case, consistent with voluntary disclosure theory, where costs tend to outweigh benefits from the perspective of what is perceived to be in a multinational firm's best interests.     

Risk analysis for accounting models: A spreadsheet simulation approach

Risk analysis can be performed on accounting models using spreadsheet add-ins having statistical forecasting and simulation capabilities. Modeling uncertainty, performing a simulation, and viewing probability distributions of key output variables present to students the risk within a modeled relationship. This use of technology for accounting instruction is presented for capital budgeting, budgeted cash flow, and a budgeted income statement.     

Economic policy uncertainty and executive turnover

This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover. The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress. However, the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover, thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes. Based on the literature, we propose a check-and-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change, according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2013), we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis. Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover, and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.     

Communities as a risk in mining: managing community legitimacy

Abstract

Using three cases from mining multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Armenia, this article conceptualises community risk, providing an alternative framework to conventional risk management approaches when managing local community relations. These approaches have been struggling to capture the increasingly complex risks originating from communities – both those who are directly affected by mining activities and the ones who have a vested interest in mining. The article defines two types of community relations which mining companies manage: communities of place (CofP), who live near the mine and are directly affected by its operations, and communities of interest (CofI), who are outside interest groups either opposing or supporting a given project. Community risks arise when CofPs create meaning about the legitimacy of the changes introduced into their physical and social environment, leading them to take action that affects the MNEs’ risk exposure to political, cultural or financial risks. The CofP can present these types of risks by acting alone or in cooperation with the CofI, who often have the resources and knowhow to affect corporate decision-making. The article contributes by defining community risk as an increasingly salient source of uncertainty for mining companies and MNEs in particular. Conceptualising community risk as the lack of legitimacy with these important stakeholder groups enables MNEs to strategise and adopt practices which are adapted to the local context. At the same time it assures investors, political and cultural stakeholders that the communities who have a specific interest in the project accept its impact.