Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.     

Changes in the Terms of Trade and Sectoral Reallocation of Labor: The Case of Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago

This paper quantifies the consequences of long-term changes in the terms of trade on the growth rate of real income in Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. We find that magnitudes of both the long-term changes in the terms of trade and the responses of income growth rates vary considerably across these three countries. We then develop a model that links a change in the terms of trade to a change in income through the degree of sectoral reallocation of labor. Using this model, we analyze whether specific fiscal and trade policy responses cushion or amplify the impact of terms of trade on income. In a calibrated version of the model, we demonstrate that the degree with which an economy reallocates its labor across sectors is not necessarily a good indicator of its vulnerability to changes in its terms of trade.     

Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China

China has a dual-track interest-rate system: bank deposit and lending rates are regulated while money and bond rates are market-determined. The central bank also imposes an indicative target, which may not be binding at all times, for total credit in the banking system. We develop and calibrate a theoretical model to illustrate the conduct of monetary policy within the framework of dual-track interest rates and a juxtaposition of price- and quantity-based policy instruments. We show the transmission of monetary policy instruments to market interest rates, which, together with the indicative credit target in the banking system, ultimately are the means by which monetary policy affects the real economy. The model shows that market interest rates are most sensitive to changes in the benchmark deposit interest rates, significantly responsive to changes in the reserve requirements, but not particularly reactive to open market operations. These theoretical results are verified and supported by both linear and GARCH models using daily money and bond market data. Overall, the findings of this study help us to understand why the central bank conducts monetary policy in China the way it does, using a combination of price and quantitative instruments with differing degrees of potency in terms of their influence on the cost of credit.     

资本开放、外汇储备累积与货币政策独立性——中国数据的实证研究

在开放和发展条件下,基于凯恩斯动态货币需求调节方程和Cavoli模型,本文构建了一个包含外汇储备增加的国内市场利率决定模型。对中国2001~2008年月度数据的OLS和TSLS回归结果表明,国际市场利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率影响并不显著,而物价水平、产出和滞后一期的货币供给等变量系数符号不仅与理论预期一致,且检验显著。论文进一步采用了递归的SVAR模型来分析国际利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率的动态冲击效应,脉冲响应函数表明这种动态冲击效应同样十分微弱,说明了中央银行的货币冲销有效性和国内货币政策的独立性。     

Bertrand-Edgeworth equilibrium in a cash-in-advance economy

This paper is about price and wage competition in a dynamicgeneral equilibrium model. We consider an equity financed economywhere firms need money to finance their input costs. Part ofthe output is sold for money to be used in the next period asworking capital and the remaining part is distributed to ownersas real dividends. We first characterize the steady state competitiveequilibrium path. Second, we study whether this competitiveequilibrium can be supported as a pure strategy Nash equilibriumin price and wage setting games. We prove a positive resultfor price competition and a negative one for wage competition.     

货币供给、通货膨胀与产出波动的动态效应研究：1992—2013

本文基于包含随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归（SV—TVP—VAR）模型研究了货币供给冲击作用下我国货币政策传导的动态响应机制。实证结果表明：我国的货币传导机制具有明显的时变效应,SV—TVP—VAR模型能够很好的刻画货币传导机制中的时变特征。同时,货币政策传导机制中时变效应大于惯性效应。此外,我国的货币供给过程表现为逐渐增强的产出缺口驱动特征。进一步研究发现,增加货币供给量这种扩张性的货币政策在短期内具有真实效应,能够显著的影响实际利率和产出水平,然而从长期来看对实际利率和产出水平却缺乏永久性影响。     

货币市场基金影响货币流通速度吗

货币流通速度不仅受实体经济影响,而且受虚拟经济影响,本文运用实证分析方法探讨货币市场基金对货币流通速度是否产生影响,结果表明货币市场基金收益率变动是货币流通速度变动的格兰杰原因,两者正相关,可根据货币市场基金收益率和一年期国债收益率预测货币流通速度,货币政策实施效果受货币流通速度影响,管理者可通过调整货币市场基金政策稳定货币流通速度。     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

美联储货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应研究

文章主要研究了美国货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应,理论部分分析了在开放经济条件下两国模型关于货币政策跨国传输等相关问题。货币供给分为国内供给和外部输入,通过中央银行资产负债表中资产负债的变化可以分析外部货币的输入影响到基础货币的被动投放,在流通过程中由于乘数效应影响了货币供给量。外部货币的输入影响央行调控独立性的发挥,外部货币的输入容易形成对国内货币市场和产品市场某种程度的冲击,央行货币政策调控的难度增加。经验分析发现,美元输入对中国货币政策存在溢出效应,影响到中国的基础货币投放,影响到中国的货币政策的独立性以及执行的效果。     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its good and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth.We also estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth such as that seen in late 2008 and 2009 lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.     

On black market exchange rate and demand for money in developing countries: The case of Nigeria

This paper examines the hitherto unexplored question of the effects of the black market exchange rate expectations on the domestic demand for money in Nigeria. This study finds that real income and expected inflation rates are the appropriate scale and opportunity cost variables for the demand for money function in Nigeria. The results also suggest that depreciation in black market exchange rate exerts a significant negative impact on the domestic demand for money. A policy implication of this research is that since a depreciation of the black market exchange rate tends to decrease the demand for money, it should be taken into account in the execution of monetary policy. The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions which substantially improved the quality of the paper. This research was supported in part by a summer research grant from the College of Business Administration, University of New Orleans.     

Does Money Have a Role in Monetary Policy for Price Stability under Inflation Targeting in Thailand?

This paper deploys Thai quarterly data for the study period 1999q1–2014q4 to econometrically investigate the proposition that money growth is an important, if not the sole, determinant of inflation under inflation targeting and that the money growth-inflation relation is not conditional on the stability of the money-demand function. The autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) bounds-testing results suggest that, across the study period, the Thai money stock (narrow or broad), real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates maintained a long-run equilibrium relationship. The associated error-correction model of inflation confirms the cointegral relationship among money (narrow or broad), real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates. It also suggests that money growth has a significant distributed-lag impact on inflation. The presence of this money growth-inflation relationship was associated with a stable narrow money-demand function, whereas the broad money-demand function remained unstable. These results for the study period are consistent with the view that the causal relationship between money growth and inflation holds in Thailand under inflation targeting when the Bank of Thailand deploys a short-term policy interest rate, rather than a monetary aggregate, as the instrument of monetary policy and that this relationship is not conditional on the stability of the money-demand function.     

Detrending and the Money-Output Link: International Evidence

An important policy question is whether nominal money is relatively more useful than interest rates in explaining movements in real output. Previous analyses usually rely only on U.S. data or other financially developed countries from a specific region, such as the EU. This study examines the empirical relation between money, interest rates, and output across a sample of 20 countries, including industrial countries from different regions as well as economically and financially less-developed countries. On the basis of estimating an unconstrained, four-variable VAR model, the weight of evidence indicates that rejecting money as a potentially informative tool in setting monetary policy is unwarranted.     

Monetary Shocks and the Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate under the Hong Kong Currency Board

To assess the claim that flexible markets render monetary policy unimportant under the currency board, we test the impact of monetary shocks on Hong Kong's real exchange rate. Using vector autoregressions, we find persistent effects of monetary shocks on the real exchange rate, implying money is not neutral in Hong Kong. We then estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate, employing the definition developed by Rogoff-Obstfeld-Stein. The divergence between the observed and equilibrium rates is clearly stationary throughout the 1980s, but after a key policy shift in 1991 that divergence becomes non-stationary. We conclude that Hong Kong's real exchange rate moved away from the real fundamentals in the latter period.     

The Demand For Money: A Structural Econometric Investigation

This study empirically investigates dynamic microfoundations for the conventional static money demand equation. An intertemporal substitution model with the addilog utility function yields a money demand relationship that closely approximates the double log specification. Results from previous empirical studies largely support the derived equation. Estimations with quarterly U.S. data support cointegration among real per capita M1 and consumption, and an after-tax long-term interest rate for the post-1980 period. Estimated short-run intertemporal interest rate elasticities of consumption vary from -0.26 to -0.93. Estimated long-run elasticities of substitution between consumption and money range from -0.26 to -0.41.     

Monetary theory and monetary policy a central banker's view

Summary In this article attention is paid to monetary theory, the relationship between the instruments of monetary policy and other important macro-economic policy instruments, and finally to the real possibilities of pursuing an effective monetary policy. The conclusion from the theoretical analysis is that the total money supply must be considered one of the most important macro-economic policy instruments. An excessive supply of money will sooner or later lead to inflation, to the debasement of money. Therefore the volume of money should be controlled. The use and effectiveness of monetary policy should always be seen in the context of other policy instruments, especially fiscal policy and, under circumstances, wage- and price policy. The possibilities to pursue an effective monetary policy are not unlimited. The effectiveness of such a policy can,e.g., be hampered by external factors. It is vital for a central bank to have the widest possible range of instruments at its disposal.     

LONG-RUN M3 DEMAND IN SOUTH AFRICA: A COINTEGRATED VAR MODEL

This paper presents a system cointegration analysis of a long‐run demand for money (measured in terms of M3) in South Africa. In particular, the paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregression model, consisting of real money, income and the opportunity cost of holding money. Using a variety of theory consistent identification schemes, the money demand function is identified along with other two cointegrating relations, namely, an IS‐type relationship and a relationship relating inflation to the spread between long‐ and short‐term interest rates. The model shows that of the variables used, only income and real money are error‐correcting to the money demand relation. The money demand relation is found to be relatively stable over the sample period, when short‐run fluctuations are corrected for. The model further shows that the long‐run link between money and inflation is rather weak.     

中国货币政策数量效果的实证研究

文章主要运用了单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,利用1994年到2004年的季度数据,对货币供应量、利率这两个重要货币政策变量与GDP之间的关系进行了计量分析,利率对实体经济的影响不显著;不同层次的货币供应量都能对经济产生影响,但它们对GDP的作用效果是有差异的.为提高我国货币政策的效果,实现我国货币政策的目标提出了相关的政策建议.     

Interest rates, risk, and imperfect markets: puzzles and policies

Traditional theory emphasizes the key role that monetary policycan play through the manipulation of interest rates. But thereare several puzzles that cannot be reconciled with standardmodels. These include: the apparent constancy in interest ratesover extended periods, and changes at other times which appearunrelated to changes in technology and demography; the cyclicalpattern of movements in real interest rates; the impact of nominalnot real interest-rate changes on real variables; and the cyclicalpattern of movements in interest-rate spreads. This paper reachesbeyond the standard competitive equilibrium, perfect information,model of credit markets towards imperfect information models,particularly those that focus on the determinants of bank behaviour.Of the standard models, the money demand model is most deficientin understanding these puzzles. The loanable funds theory anda generalized version of real productivity theory can be reconciledwith imperfect information, and markets and the consequent creditand equity rationing regimes help to explain the puzzles. Specifically,banks may be insensitive to changes in monetary stance owingto risk aversion. There are strong policy implications; it isargued, for instance, that in East Asia raising interest ratesexacerbated economic decline and, rather than contributing toexchange-rate stability, may have induced capital flight asdefault risk increased, lowering risk-adjusted expected returns.