股权分置对中国资本市场实证研究的影响及模型修正

流通股和非流通股并存的特殊股权制度影响到中国上市公司股价和股数科学合理的确定,进而影响到几乎所有的中国股票市场实证研究结果。股权分置改革全部完成之后,涉及股改前数据的所有实证研究和数据库建设也都不能忽视改革前后的股数和股价的不可比问题。现有的基于股权分置的指标修正方法五花八门,也缺少合理的经济逻辑和数据支持。本文证明忽视股权分置现实,或者不适当的修正都将导致偏颇的结论,进而提出了一个通用的修正方法,即每股非流通股的价格相当于每股流通股的一个百分比。然后用实际数据对这个百分比的表达式进行了估计,从而对股权分置条件下价格模型与回报率模型进行了修正。结果显示,经过修正后的模型估计优于未修正的模型。在此基础上,我们研究了现在的全流通改革是否公平地补偿了流通股股东。结果显示,对于非流通股比率较小的公司,补偿是公平的,但对于非流通股比率较高的公司,还是存在着大的非流通股股东剥削流通股股东的现象。     

ITQs,Firm Dynamics and Wealth Distribution: Does Full Tradability Increase Inequality?

Concerns over the re-distributive effects of individual transferable quotas (ITQ’s) have led to restrictions on their tradability. We consider a general equilibrium model with firm dynamics to evaluate the redistributive impact of changing the tradability of ITQs. A change in tradability would happen, for example, if permits are allowed to be traded as a separate asset from ownership of an active firm. If the property right is associated with ownership of an active firm, the permit can be leased in each period but it is not possible to exit the industry and keep the right. However, allowing the permits to be traded as a separate asset has two effects. First, it leads to a greater concentration of production in the industry. Second, it directly converts a non-tradable asset into a tradable one, and this is equivalent to giving a lump sum transfer to all firms. The first effect implies a concentration in revenues, while the second implies a redistribution of wealth. We calibrate our model to match the observed increase in revenue inequality in the Northeast Multispecies (Groundfish) U.S. Fishery. We show that although observed revenue inequality—measured by the Gini coefficient—increases by 12 %, wealth inequality is reduced by 40 %.     

我国贸易顺差的根源及外需的可替代性——基于贸易品—非贸易品的分析框架

本文在开放宏观经济的平衡关系中引入产品的可贸易性差异,探讨我国贸易顺差的根源以及外需的可替代性。研究结果表明,(1)我国国内总供给结构偏向于贸易品,国内总需求结构偏向于非贸易品,两者之间不断扩大的差距是贸易顺差不断增长的根本原因;(2)非贸易品供给不足所导致的"强制储蓄"现象,制约了我国居民消费需求的增长,使其无法有效替代外需;(3)给定国内供给和需求的结构性特征,外需增加是国内投资增加的必要条件,投资需求无法替代外需;(4)为了实现总需求构成的重新平衡,特别是提升国内消费需求在总需求中的比重,不能简单地依赖总需求管理政策或收入分配政策,必须配合以促进供给结构调整的政策措施。     

Non-tradable Share Reform and Tradable Shareholders＇ Wealth： An Event Study Analysis

On April 29, 2005, the reform of non-tradable shares was started. 46 companies were selected as the first and second batches of non-tradable share pilot reform, and among them 45 pilot companies finished their non-tradable share reform. This study examines the abnormal stock returns of the 45 pilot companies finishing their non-tradable share reform to determine whether tradable shareholders gain profits from this non-tradable share reform. By employing event study analysis, we find that tradable shareholders do gain profits from the non-tradable share reform. The average abnormal return of the 45 pilot companies was 10.62% on the resumption trading day after they finished their non-tradable share reform, which was statistically significant. We also find that the average abnormal return of high-compensation package group is significantly higher than that of low-compensation package group.     

Price Volatility and Risk Exposure: On the Interaction of Quota and Product Markets

We consider an industry with firms that produce a final good emitting pollution to different degree as a side effect. Pollution is regulated by a tradable quota system where some quotas may have been allocated at the outset, i.e. before the quota market is opened. We study how volatility in quota price affects firm behaviour, taking into account the impact of quota price on final-good price. The impact on the individual firm differs depending on how polluting it is??whether it is ??clean?? or ??dirty????and whether it has been allocated quotas at the outset. In the absence of long-term or forward contracting, a grandfathering regime??where clean firms are allocated no quotas and dirty firms are allocated quotas for a part of their emissions??minimizes the impact on firm behavior relative to a risk-neutral benchmark.With forward contracts and in the absence of wealth effects initial quota allocation has no effect on firm behaviour. Allowing for abatement does not change the qualitative nature of our results.     

Exchange rate regimes and the real sector: a sectoral analysis of CEE Countries

This article analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and non-tradable sectors. First, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependent on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of the shocks analysed. Second, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and non-tradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes in seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.     

市场结构与实际汇率——理论模型和对人民币／美元实际汇率的经验分析

文章在一个存在垄断竞争的两国动态一般均衡模型中分析市场结构变化对实际汇率长期趋势的影响,结论认为,本国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际升值,而外国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际贬值。对人民币/美元实际汇率和中美两国市场垄断程度关系的实证分析基本验证了模型的结论。文章建议,可以通过拆分重组、发展民营企业、引进外资企业等方式引入竞争、降低垄断程度,从而缓解部分人民币升值压力。     

On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs

This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or non-tradable goods. Under a cash-in-advance assumption, a temporary reduction in the devaluation rate induces a consumption boom accompanied by real appreciation, which hurts the owners of tradable goods. The owners of non-tradables have to weigh two opposing effects: an increase in the present value of non-tradable goods wealth and a negative intertemporal substitution effect. For reasonable parameter values, owners of non-tradables are better off.     

“大小非解禁”对我国A股上市企业股价的影响

本文从理论和实证两方面研究"大小非解禁"对我国A股市场的负面影响及影响程度。结果发现:"大小非解禁"上市公司的股价在公告日具有显著的负异常收益表现,其市场负异常收益与企业业绩相关度不大,与流通盘大小无关;解禁时其市场负异常收益与解禁比例、市场预期表现显著负相关,与换手率、企业每股净资产显著正相关,与市净率、企业当季每股收益没有表现出显著的相关性。据此,本文提出一些研究建议和对策。     

Volume Quotas with Heterogeneous Product Categories*

Volume quotas on imports are an important part of assistance packages afforded a number of major industries in Australia. Generally, quota is allocated to importers free of charge, although recently a proportion of quota for some product groups has been sold by tender. In this paper we compare the effects of volume quotas applied to heterogeneous product groups when allocated free of charge, by full tender sale and by a combination offender sale and free allocation. The analysis is undertaken for both competitive markets and in the case where importers have some market power.     

Strategic Environmental Policy under Free Trade with Transboundary Pollution

We analyze the effects of trade liberalization on environmental policies in a strategic setting when there is transboundary pollution. Trade liberalization can result in a race to the bottom in environmental taxes, which makes both countries worse off. This is not due to the terms of trade motive, but rather the incentive, in a strategic setting, to reduce the incidence of transboundary pollution. With command and control policies (emission quotas), countries are unable to influence foreign emissions by strategic choice of domestic policy; hence, there is no race to the bottom. However, with internationally tradable quotas, unless pollution is a pure global public bad, there is a race to the bottom in environmental policy. Under free trade, internationally nontradable quotas result in the lowest pollution level and strictly welfare‐dominate taxes. The ordering of internationally tradable quotas and pollution taxes depends, among other things, on the degree of international pollution spillovers.     

人民币实际汇率与中国两部门生产率差异的关系——基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的实证分析

长期实际汇率主要取决于经济的供给面,即生产率的变化,这一思想体现在巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的模型中。文章从巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的理论出发选择合适的计量模型,然后以制造业和服务业分别表示贸易品部门和非贸易品部门,通过差分回归模型和协整检验来分析人民币实际汇率与中国两部门间生产率差异之间的关系,回归结果符合巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的结论。在1980~2004年间,人民币实际汇率的变动趋势与中国两部门间的生产率差异变化趋势基本相符:非贸易品部门生产率提高幅度大时,人民币趋向于贬值;而贸易品部门生产率提高幅度大时,人民币实际汇率趋向于升值。     

International emissions trading with endogenous allowance choices

This paper compares endogenous choices of tradable and non-tradable emission allowances by non-cooperative countries. I find that the cost savings of trading do not necessarily lead to less pollution. In particular, environmentally more concerned countries usually choose less allowances if these are tradable, but this may be offset by the choice of more allowances on the side of environmentally less concerned countries. Moreover, if the establishment of a trading system requires the unanimous approval of all countries, there may be no agreement on trading even if it were to lead to less pollution overall. Conversely, a trading system may find unanimous approval even if it induces more pollution.     

股权二元结构下配股对股权价值的影响

本文建立了股权二元结构下配股的理论模型,针对我国上市公司两类典型的公司治理结构——经理控制和大股东控制以及“一股独大”的股东结构,运用博弈论方法探讨了股权二元结构下配股对流通股和非流通股价值的影响。本文首次提出了配股的“再分配效应”——配股导致价值在流通股与非流通股之间转移,配股的“股权成本效应”——在非流通股股东不认购的情况下配股能降低公司的平均股权成本以及“配股中的搭便车现象”——流通股股东明知配股有损于流通股价值,在个体理性的驱使下仍然认购配股。本文揭示了股权二元结构与现行配股制度的缺陷,有助于解释我国股票市场与上市公司的一些重要实证现象。     

股权二元结构下配股对股权价值的影响

本文建立了股权二元结构下配股的理论模型，针对我国上市公司两类典型的公司治理结构——经理控制和大股东控制以及“一股独大”的股东结构，运用博弈论方法探讨了股权二元结构下配股对流通股和非流通股价值的影响。本文首次提出了配股的“再分配效应”——配股导致价值在流通股与非流通股之间转移，配股的“股权成本效应”——在非流通股股东不认购的情况下配股能降低公司的平均股权成本以及“配股中的搭便车现象”——流通股股东明知配股有损于流通股价值，在个体理性的驱使下仍然认购配股。本文揭示了股权二元结构与现行配股制度的缺陷，有助于解释我国股票市场与上市公司的一些重要实证现象。     

Globalization and flattening of Phillips Curve in Turkey between 1987 and 2007

In the last two decades, there have been important changes in inflation dynamics in Turkey. While average inflation rate, inflation volatility and inflation persistence declined, the prices of tradable goods have shown an increase less than prices of non-tradable goods. The aim of this paper is to inquire whether the globalization has an effect on this change and to test whether and how it affected the slope of the Phillips Curve. The findings point out that global activity did have an effect on domestic inflation rate and that Phillips Curve got flatter.     

中国股票市场流通性价值研究——基于非流通股协议转让与限售股转让的证据

文章利用股权分置改革前的非流通股协议转让样本与股权分置改革后的限售股票转让样本研究中国股票市场的流通性价值水平。研究结果表明,流通性存在价值,股权分置改革前,股票流通性价值水平均值约为66%,流通股市场的流动性显著影响股票流通性价值,但流通股的流动性与流通股价格波动率对股票流通性价值没有显著影响;股改后的股票流通性价值水平约为56%,流通股的流动性与波动性水平显著影响流通性价值。     

Impacts of capital inflows on aggregate spending categories: the case of Turkey

This paper discusses the impact of foreign savings on aggregate spending categories in Turkey. Using the vector autoregressive (VAR) models the major finding is that foreign savings has an increasing effect on consumption. The increase of investment arises from the accelerator effect of consumption, which results in an upward trend in investment in non-tradable sectors. Concluding that the policy of relying on foreign savings, to obtain long-term increases in tradable sector investment and competitiveness is ill-judged.     

Location choice,competition, and welfare in non-tradable service FDI

We investigate whether non-tradable service FDI is efficient from a welfare point of view. A fixed number of firms strategically decide which markets to locate in and then compete in quasi-Cournot fashion. Considering firm location in two symmetric markets, non-tradable service FDI may or may not be efficient for the source country, depending on the total number of firms, competition in markets and the curvature of the demand function. In contrast, non-tradable service FDI is always efficient for the host country and the overall economy. This implies that any policy that affects firm location between two symmetric markets will not be beneficial from a welfare viewpoint.