市场均衡就业区间与劳动市场的“连续非出清”特性

市场经济条件下厂商将其供给量调整到合理水平所需的费用可称为微观调节成本。由于存在微观调节成本，传统分析中宏观层面上的就业均衡中心心两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”，这两点界定一个“市场均衡就业区间”，社会就业一旦进入该区间，市场机制便不可能再对其作出调节。“市场均衡就业区间”的存在，使现代市场经济条件下的劳动市场成为一种特殊的“连续非出清市场”，其直观表现即经济运行中经常性地存在两个层面的就业失衡；根源于有效需求不足的 “需求短缺型失业”，与存在于市场均衡就业区间内部的“区间内就业失衡”。前者可通过实行各种扩张性经济政策予以消除，后者则一般需采取多种特殊政策措施方可有效应对，其中，积极扶持和促进个体经济发展对有效化解“区间内就业不足”，从而减轻就业压力具有独特作用，因而尤应引起高度重视。     

论大开发中的西部就业市场均衡

西部大开发要求形成以生态、环保产业为基础，以交通运输业为依托，以特色产业为支柱的特殊产业梯次。本文基于此分析了西部上述相关产业各类劳动力的需求状况：以及供给形势，认为多种专业人才在相当长时期内将供给不足，普通劳动力则有过剩。为促进西部就业市场均衡，应积极实施完整的劳动就业市场化政策，加大人才引进和劳动力培训力度。     

总量均衡区间及其对宏观经济运行与调控的影响

市场经济条件下,供给方调整其生产规模所需的成本可称为调节成本.由于存在调节成本,传统分析中的总量均衡中心点两侧便分别存在着"低位临界点"与"高位临界点",这两点界定了一个特殊的"总量均衡区间".总量均衡区间的存在对宏观经济运行与调控有着多方面的影响,它使总量波动的形态发生了一定变化,使市场机制对总量平衡的调节作用进一步削弱,使现实经济运行中的总量失衡呈现出更为复杂多样的形态,使政府宏观调控的操作难度进一步增加.因此,应更新对总量失衡状态的理解,重视总量均衡区间及其影响,对区间内总量失衡进行专门而深入的研究.     

房地产市场运行特点及形势分析与预测

12008年房地产市场运行特点2008年,在国际金融危机的形势下,国内宏观经济形势日趋复杂。房地产市场受经济环境以及宏观调控影响,上半年逐步回归理性,3季度开始迅速下滑,呈现出低迷的运行态势。开发投资、施工和竣工面积增速较2007年持续回落,商品房成交量大幅降低,购房需求明显不足,房价继续走低,房地产开发企业资金链条绷紧,房地产市场景气回落。但市场供给仍保持充足,结构优化调整加快。四季度,国家出台系列“保增长”措施,房地产市场进一步恶化的趋势得到遏制,整体市场基本保持了理性回归并稳定发展的态势。     

河北省票据市场运行特点及存在问题

2006年河北省票据市场运行特点:承兑签发以银行承兑汇票为主,签发量呈快速增长,票据承兑签发和贴现投向以制造业、零售批发业为主;票据签发市场大、中型企业占比较高,票据直贴由上半年以小型企业为主转为中型企业,进入3季度,票据市场较上半年发生较大变动,票据贴现量出现较大幅度的下降,贴现利率大幅走高。     

农民转移就业与劳动力市场建设

农民转移就业催生中国劳动力市场,然而目前农民转移就业方面出现的许多问题又凸显出劳动力市场功能的缺陷,主要原因就在于城乡分割体制下劳动力市场的“分割”上。这就需要理清思路,在统筹城乡就业政策的引导下,对一系列制度体制进行深层次的改革,同时也要注意因地制宜的拓宽就业渠道,培育劳动力市场。     

我国就业与财政货币政策实证分析

就业是我国今后较长时期内一个重要的经济问题和社会问题，它关系到我国国民经济能否保持持续、快速、健康发展，也与社会的稳定与否、人民生活能否得到改善密切相关。我们应该从战略的高度重新审视就业问题，把就业与我国的宏观调控手段结合起来，在调整财政货币政策时充分考虑就业。由于我国近期财政政策的主要调控目标     

总量均衡区间与总供给波动特性的新考察

现代市场经济运行中,由于调整供给量须耗费调节成本,因而传统分析中的“总量均衡中心点”两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”,这两点界定了一个特殊的总量均衡区间。总量均衡区间的存在,导致总供给具有了“粘性”波动的特性,这一特性将对宏观经济运行与调控产生重要影响,因而必须对之高度重视,并采取相应的方略以应对由此产生的诸多新问题、新挑战。     

就业、失业与劳动力市场退出——来自资源型城市的实证研究

本文利用Probit和Multinomial logit模型,对影响我国资源型城市就业、失业、退出劳动力市场的因素进行了实证分析,分析认为处于三种不同状态的人群在人口特征、受教育程度和家庭特征等方面具有系统性的差异。     

中国劳动力市场的就业悖论:分工体系新视角

农民工和大学生在就业市场上冰火两重天的待遇是中国劳动力市场存在的就业悖论。将现有解释大学生和农民工就业悖论的文献按照解释的原因不同可分为外部环境说、教育质量说以及自身素质说等三大类型,并对现有研究的不足进行分析与说明,在此基础上构建一个新的理论框架—分工体系理论框架试图将各种不同的包括经济发展、产业结构、高等教育质量、大学生能力素质等理论解释纳入其中,并进一步利用该框架指出进入分工体系的难度、与分工体系的匹配程度、在分工体系中的活动幅度、在分工体系中发挥的不同作用是导致就业悖论的根本原因,并根据研究结论就如何改变这一现状提出建议。     

Employment Quota System and Labour Market Outcomes of Individuals with Disabilities: Empirical Evidence from South Korea

To date, only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of disability employment quota systems using structural changes in policies. This study exploits the structural changes in South Korea's disability employment quota system that took place in 2004 and 2006 to expand the current disability policy evaluation literature. We separate the effect of these changes in the quota system into their effect on the probability of labour force participation and their effect on the probability of employment (after controlling for selection into the labour market). We also study the extent to which the changes – which included increasing the number of employers covered by the quota system, the number of jobs available to individuals with disabilities and the financial incentives for employing individuals with disabilities – have affected job satisfaction among individuals with disabilities. Our results suggest that the changes in the quota system may have increased labour force participation but have had a limited positive impact on the probability of employment among people with disabilities in South Korea. Further, compulsory hiring and expanded opportunities have not substantially affected the level of job satisfaction observed among employees with disabilities relative to their non‐disabled counterparts.     

市场均衡域:对传统市场均衡的一种思考

由于信息不完备和经济主体之间的讨价还价,均衡域的存在具有普遍性和广泛性,因而均衡域作为一种分析工具,可以更好地描述和揭示现实经济生活中经济主体之间博弈结果的多种可能性.作为均衡域的一个应用,在就某种资源进行谈判时,谈判双方在均衡域内可以达成多种双赢结果,而双方赢利的程度则可以通过利益分配系数反映出来.     

The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families' Tax Credit

In October 1999, the working families' tax credit (WFTC) replaced family credit as the main package of in‐work support for families with children. Among a range of stated aims, the WFTC is intended to‘… improve work incentives, encouraging people without work to move into employment'. In this paper, we consider the impact of WFTC on hours and participation. To simulate labour supply responses, we use a discrete behavioural model of household labour supply with controls for fixed and childcare costs, and unobserved heterogeneity. In simulation, we experiment with a number of scenarios regarding the take‐up of the credit, entry wage level and hourly childcare price. We find participation rates among single mothers to increase by around 2.2 percentage points for the base‐case scenario, while for married women participation rates are modelled to fall. Our simulation results indicate a small increase in overall participation of around 30,000 individuals.     

Consensus Beliefs Equilibrium and Market Efficiency

This paper presents an analysis of the concept of consensus beliefs and its relation to market efficiency. We show that unless traders have rational expectations, the two published interpretations of consensus beliefs are not useful for considerations of market efficiency. One interpretation (see Verrecchia 6 ) has no implication for market efficiency. Under the second interpretation (see Verrecchia 7 , 8 ) consensus beliefs equilibria are efficient, but they typically do not exist unless traders have rational expectations.     

The Effects of Anticipated Inflation on Housing Market Equilibrium

An increase in the anticipated rate of inflation causes distortions in the housing market due to a nonindexed tax system. Since nominal rather than real interest payments are tax deductible, an increase in inflation decreases the aftertax cost of capital for homeowners, which in turn increases the demand for housing and increases its real price. This tax gain is shown to be larger for rental housing than for owner-occupied housing. In a competitive market, this implies that although the real price of housing increases with a rise in anticipated inflation, real rental rates fall.     

农村金融市场均衡理论及对中国的启示

农村金融问题的核心是农村金融市场的供给无法满足农村金融的需求。本文以农村金融市场为切入点,对农村金融市场的供给、需求以及供求均衡理论进行了回顾,并应用这些理论对中国农村金融的现状进行了分析,得出了一些有益的结论。