农业水价效应研究进展

[目的]中国是农业大国,也是灌溉大国,农业水价的变化对农业影响较大。文章阐述了国内外农业水价效应的研究进展。[方法]农业水价效用是指农民在消费水资源时对农业水价的满足程度,由于农业用水是准公共物品,具有明显的外部性,农业水价效用体现在水价变化对农户用水行为的引导以及由此导致的节水技术采用,种植结构调整等生产方式方面的改变、以及对农民收入影响及思想观念方面的作用等。[结果]国内主要通过需求弹性等方法分析了农业水价变化对农业节水、农业生产、农民收入、粮食安全等方面的影响,国外专家通过建立数学模型分析农业水价对农户行为、经济价值及管理体制的变化。[结论]该文探讨了农业水价效应研究存在的问题,即农业水价效应宏观性不足、研究缺乏完善指标体系、水价效应滞后性关注不足。提出了农业水价效应研究发展趋势:(1)拓展视角,从宏观角度观察;(2)建立完善的农业水价效应评价指标体系;(3)结合改革,关注农业水价长期效应。     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.     

农业生产风险对区域经济的影响分析

[目的]农业作为国民经济的基础产业对区域经济的发展至关重要,两者之间存在相互影响和相互制约的耦合关系。文章通过对作用于农业生产活动的主要因子对区域经济的影响研究,以期筛选出两者相互作用的关键因子,为规避或降低农业生产风险、协调经济发展提供理论基础。[方法]通过选取作用于农业生产活动的36个作用因子,对农业生产风险因子对区域经济的影响程度进行综合评分,采用层次分析法分析各指标对农业生产与区域经济影响的重要程度。[结果](1)市场需求量、农民人均纯收入、农业机械化总动力、市场价格动态、农作物种类和面积、农药化肥施用量、农田有效灌溉面积、单位耕地面积粮食产量、干旱、温度、洪涝、农业机械自动化、交通运输条件、农业信息化、农业技术推广程度等是重要性排序为前15位的风险因子。(2)随着农业机械自动化、农业信息化和农业技术推广程度的进步,干旱、温度和洪涝等风险因子对农业生产造成的产量风险随之降低。而市场需求、市场价格动态等对农业生产的作用风险在扩大,特别是在区域经济发展不稳定、发展不平衡的情况下更为突出。(3)政府财政对农业的投入、投资的规模和结构以及对农产品价格和流通的干预则影响到农业生产经营、地区生产总值和GDP的增长速率;且农业资源利用程度、栽培环境的保护以及农业环境污染的保护和治理则是区域经济可持续发展的重点。[结论]通过测度不同评价指标对农业生产的影响程度,指出作用于区域经济的关键风险因子,对降低和规避农业风险,协调农业与区域经济的稳定、可持续发展具有重要意义。     

国际大米价格波动对国内大米价格的传递效应研究

［目的］国际粮食价格波动会对国内粮食价格产生影响,其影响程度和途径一直是农产品价格领域的研究热点。［方法］基于2002年1月至2017年6月的月度数据,运用Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型检验了国际大米价格与国内大米价格的长期均衡与短期输入关系,在考虑国内大米价格形成机制的基础上分析了国际大米价格的影响程度,并进一步检验了大米与其他粮食品种价格间的整合关系。［结果］（1）国内大米价格与国际大米价格保持长期均衡关系,短期内国内大米价格对国际大米价格波动的弹性为00226。（2）国际大米价格对国内大米价格具有显著的影响,在控制其他变量不变的前提下,国际大米价格每上涨1%,国内大米价格会上升约01%。（3）Johansen协整检验表明大米会与其他粮食品种价格保持长期整合关系,国际大米价格上涨可能会通过间接渠道传递至国内大米市场。［结论］因此不仅需要关注国际大米价格对国内大米价格的影响,还需要关注其他粮食品种对大米价格的影响。     

农地资源价格研究

论述了农地资源价格特征和构成。农地资源作为土地资产的一种，其价格具有外溢性、市场失灵性、影响因素复杂性等特征。农地价格和其他土地一样具有二元性，即包括农地物质虚幻价格和农地资本次生虚幻价格。从农地产生效益的角度看，农地价格包括农地社会效益价格、农地生态效益价格和农地经济效益价格。作为农地所有者（或使用者）真正把握住县可让渡的价格仅是农地真实的价格中的极少的一部分。     

农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及影响研究——以武汉市黄陂区为研究对象

[目的]农业生态旅游的发展逐渐成为区域经济新的增长点,分析农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及负面影响,协调两者间的关系,对于区域经济可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章通过文献查阅和数据调查法,以武汉市黄陂区为研究对象,分析其农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及负面影响。[结果]农业生态旅游对黄陂区域经济的贡献主要表现在有效地促进区域现代农业的发展、产业结构的调整、农民就业及国民经济的增长,然而也存在农业生态旅游投资大、农民获利不均等因素直接影响区域经济发展以及农业生态环境遭受破坏后间接影响区域经济发展等负面影响。因此政府有必要提前科学规划农业生态旅游,提供支持引导,培养和提高公民的生态环保意识,保障社会、经济和环境的协调发展。[结论]鉴于黄陂区农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献高于负面影响,为进一步保障区域经济的可持续发展,建议综合协调各个方面,将负面影响降到最低,以其为推动今后社会主义新农村建设提供一定参考。     

THE DEMAND FOR CANADIAN SEAWEEDS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO IRISH MOSS*

The acquisition of a new industry has been the major goal of many rural areas, especially in the Maritimes region of Canada. Faced not only with a marginal possibility of increasing their catch but also with the likelihood of a decline in the catch in many species of fish, the emergence of a seaweed industry, notwithstanding its occurrence in specified areas, provides a welcome feature for some fishermen and farmers. This additional or alternative source of income provides a stability hitherto not experienced in the areas. This article assesses the demand for Canadian seaweeds via a demand model and appraises the policy implications emanating from the forecasts of the model. The conclusions suggest that the almost non-existent management at the resource level (season limits in terms of months harvested are in effect) and the concomitant problems linked to a common property resource could give rise to difficulties for continued growth and the attainment of maximum returns which may be averted. La création ?une nouvelle Industrie est ce que recherchent depuis longtemps de nombreuses régions rurales, particulierement dans la region canadienne des Mart-limes. Enlrevoyant qui! leur est fort peu possible ?accroitre leurs prises et qu'il leur faut plutot envisager une diminution des prises dans le cas de nombreuses espèces de poisson, nombre de pécheurs et cultivateurs vient ?un bon oeil ?apparition ?une induslrie des algues marines, méme si ces dernières ne sont récollees que dans des secteurs particuliers. Ce supplément de revenu ou autre source de revenu offre une chance de stabiliser qu'on n'avait jamais connue dans les secteurs en cause. Dans le prèsent article, ?auteur èvalue à?aide ?un modèle la demande ?algues marines du Canada et ètudie ce qu'implique sur le plan des positions à adopter les réponses obtenues du modèle. Ces réponses incitenl à croire que la quasi-absence de gestion au niveau de la ressource (la saison des récoltes est réglemente) et les problémes de ?exploitation ?une ressource commune, pourraient provoquer sur le plan de ?expansion continue et de la realisation de réndements maximum des difficultes qui! serait possible ?éviler.     

THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

ASSESSING SOME EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

The time pattern of effects of inflation on prices received, prices paid, asset returns, and real incomes of different members of the agricultural sector is described. In the long run it is argued that inflation will have very small, if any, effects on relative prices or real incomes. For the short run, which may be several years, it is likely that some prices will rise more slowly than others and cause income losses. Included in the group of losers are producers of export products.     

农地规模化对农业科研生产率效应的影响研究

文章以农地流转为研究视角,基于中国1988~2012年31个省域面板数据,综合运用固定效应模型与动态门限回归模型,检验农业科技投入对农业生产效率的驱动作用。固定效应模型的分析结果表明,科技投入对农业生产效率提升的效果,受到农地规模的制约;随后的动态面板门限模型显示,以户均农地规模表示的农地流转值存在两个显著的门限。当户均农地规模低于第一个门限值时,科技投入对农业生产效率的影响微弱。随着农地流转的推进,科技促农的效果逐步增强。但当农地面积跨越第二个门限,科技促农系数又降低。因此,在中国农业科技投入有限的常态约束下,应以农地流转政策为契机,协调好农地流转与科技投入的关系而非一味加大科技投入,优化农业科研的区域空间布局,增强科技对中国农业的驱动作用。同时也应采取措施避免农地流转过快带来的负面效应。     

发挥山区资源优势 大力发展特色经济

我国山区幅员辽阔,类型多样,资源丰富.以市场为导向,从本地实际出发,因地制宜发展别具一格的特色经济,对调整山区产业结构、增加农民收入、脱贫致富奔小康、增加地方财政收入、吸纳农村富余劳动力、增强产品竞争力,都有着重要意义.发展山区特色经济的对策措施一是把市场需求和当地优势结合起来,发展别具一格的特色产业和产品;二是实施科技兴山战略,开发新品种,提高质量;三是积极发展加工业和储藏、保鲜、运销业;四是完善市场体系,推进农业产业化经营;五是增强市场经济新意识.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE REDUCTION AND DIRECT INCOME SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INPUT MARKETS IN AUSTRIA

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the effects of a shift from price support to direct income policy on agricultural factor markets and aggregate output. By utilising an econometric model for the Austrian agricultural sector, it is argued that the main purpose of this policy change, which is to move producers away from making production decisions in response to income support policies and to facilitate their response to market signals (‘decoupling’), is only partially realised. Switching from price to direct income support would result in little reduction in output, but some positive secondary effects can be observed. Ecological goals could be realised by lessening the degree of industrialisation due to lowering the capital-labour and intermediate input-labour ratios.     

农业综合开发对农业GDP的影响研究  ———以淮安市为例

农业综合开发投资是农业发展的重要资金来源,是财政支农的重要手段,促进了粮食增产、农业 增效和农民增收,推进了农业结构调整和农业产业化经营,加快了农业现代化进程。文章对江苏省淮安市 的农业综合开发投资总体情况进行实证分析,比较了不同项目的资金投入对农业生产能力的影响,帮助优 化投资结构,以期能对淮安市农业综合开发投资发展产生一定的推动作用。     

合理农业水价形成机制构建研究

［目的］分析我国合理农业水价形成机制标准及其存在问题,提出改进方向,促进我国合理农业水价形成机制构建、农业用水高效利用和农田水利持续利用。［方法］在系统梳理文献的基础上,结合农业水价综合改革实地调研,综合研判农业水价形成机制存在问题,探寻解决途径。［结果］提出了我国农业水价形成机制合理性判别标准,指出了合理农业水价形成机制存在的问题,明确了改进的方向。［结论］合理农业水价形成机制构建具有紧迫性和现实性,农业水价合理形成机制首要补偿农业水价运行成本,回归农业水价基本功能,建立农业水价综合改革奖惩制度,同时开展农业水价合理分担理论研究。     

SUPPLY RESPONSE TO PRICE UNDER CERTAINTY,WITH REFERENCE TO THE UNITED KINGDOM EGG MARKET, 1954 TO 1966

Hen egg production in the United Kingdom expanded throughout the 1950's and early 1960's in the face of successive reductions in the guaranteed price thus raising questions about the efficacy of the guaranteed price system as a production control mechanism. The objective of this analysis is to estimate the guaranteed price elasticity of supply of hen eggs over the twelve-year period 1954 to 1966. Two models are used, a conventional linear form and a Nerlove type lagged model. The independent variables considered are the guaranteed price, the price of feed, and egg yield as a proxy for technology. The non-lagged equation is the more satisfactory and gives an elasticity value of 1.66, suggesting that flock owners were highly sensitive to changes in the guaranteed price. This sensitivity tended to be obscured by producer eagerness to profit from technological advance, which was the predominant factor affecting the scale of egg production over the period.     

INVESTMENT IN PRACTICE: WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GRANT-AIDED PRODUCTION OF CROPS UNDER GLASS

A pilot study of investment was made on twenty glasshouse-crop holdings in Kent on which action had been taken under the Horticulture Improvement Scheme. Attention was given to behavioural aspects as well as to financial results, in the expectation that large discrete investments would provide knowledge of investment practice. Most growers in the sample were found not to make a prior evaluation of new investment or to be concerned with its economic efficiency. They paid more attention to technical matters and their own relative eficiency (their comparative standing within the industry). All growers in a financial sub-sample of nine increased their annual revenue by investment, but the proportionate aggregate increase was very little greater than that in the aggregate value of fixed assets created. In the latest year of the post-investment period, the average return per invested-half this investment being two to three years old-was shown by accounts to be less than 10 per cent. The economic test of rate of return on added capital is shown to be impracticable. It is postulated that major investments may not provide forecast cash flows as quickly or as fully as frequently anticipated. Past forecasts must often have been made without empirical knowledge of post-investment situations.     

LAND USE STUDIES IN BRITAIN: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO APPLICATIONS OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS*

Since the ending of World War II increasing attention has been paid in Britain to the need for the formulation of a coherent land use planning strategy. Public control over land use has strengthened and interest in the conceptual and practical problems involved has grown to a sufficient extent to have generated a significant body of literature. This article begins with a short account of the land use planning process, considers the state of land use statistics and outlines the results of work by a number of writers on projections of land requirements in various uses notably for agriculture, forestry and urban expansion. Against this background attention then focuses on the use of cost-benefit analysis as a means of resolving conflicts in land allocation, particularly those which centre on agricultural use as against urban expansion, and agriculture versus forestry development. A further section considers the application of cost-benefit methods in research on recreational uses of land. The paper is designed primarily as a critical survey of the present state of knowledge, though it also indicates areas of study in which the expertise of the agricultural economist might be particularly useful.     

吉林省农产品进出口对农业经济增长的效应———基于出口扩展型生产函数的实证研究

吉林省是一个农业大省,农产品进出口在整个对外贸易中占有举足轻重的地位,进出口贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系历来也是学术研究的重点。文章首先分析吉林省农产品贸易的发展状况与特点,研究了吉林省农产品贸易对农业经济的贡献率与拉动率;然后以柯布道格拉斯生产函数为基础,构建出口扩展型生产函数模型,对吉林省农产品进出口与农业经济增长,农业劳动投入、资本投入与农业经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明吉林省农产品进出口、农业固定资本投入对农业经济增长均具有正向的促进作用,农业就业人数的变化对农业经济增长的作用不显著。其中吉林省农产品出口额每增加1%,会促进农业地区生产总值增加0.198%,进口每增加1%,促进农业经济增长0.205%,农产品进出口总额每增加1%,农业地区生产总值增加0.227%。因此,吉林省要努力发展外向型农业,提高优势农产品在国际市场上的份额;同时增加农业资本投入,优化投资结构。