基于VAR和价格溢出模型的黄金现货市场高频关联性研究北大核心CSSCI

本文主要通过研究国内外黄金现货合约的价格关联情况,得出国内黄金现货定价来源和模式。研究使用的数据为1分钟高频数据,所用模型包括交叉自相关模型、基于向量自回归的引领-跟随模型、正交冲激响应模型和价格溢出模型。研究表明:Au(T+D)合约是现货黄金市场的定价合约,其价格领先其他国内现货合约;同时,Au(T+D)价格与伦敦LBMA市场现货价格在高频上既存在一定的独立性,又有互相引领的情况出现。本文期望通过该项研究,为我国商品现货市场发展提供参考。     

北京商品住宅价格变动实证分析

以动态资本市场分析为基础，运用住宅价格回归模型和二次曲线趋势模型对北京市商品住宅价格的变动趋势及影因素进行了实证分析，到目前为止，北京市商品住宅的价格以较快的速度上升，没有明显的周期性，影响住宅实际价格的因素主要是住宅实际建造成本和实际国内生产总值，其中，实际建设成本对住宅价格的影响作非常显著。     

中国权证市场理论价格及偏离度的面板数据分析

本文从中国权证市场选取了六只代表性的权证,运用修正的Black—Scholes模型(以下简称B-S模型),分析计算了6只权证的理论价格。我们发现权证的市场价格与理论价格存在很大的偏差,我们定义其为偏离度。为了解释偏离度的影响因素,我们运用面板数据模型(Panel Data Model)对其进行了数量分析。分析结果表明,我国中国权证市场存在一定的投机氛围,但造成投机的主要因素是缺乏卖空机制。     

新政策

发改委严查节日哄抬价格串通涨价 国家发改委于2011年9月上旬下发通知，要求各地价格主管部门加强中秋、国庆期间市场价格监管，规范市场价格秩序，保持物价基本稳定。     

发挥期货市场功能 服务安徽新农村建设

期货市场是市场经济体系的高端形式，具有发现市场价格、规避价格风险等重要功能。有效利用农产品期货市场的组织功能、导向作用和避险机制，对于充分利用市场手段、发挥市场效力，来推动新农村建设具有重要价值。     

资本市场有效理论的演变和发展

资本市场是有效理论是众人们发现股票价格波动遵循随机走规律后逐步形成和发展起来的，它认为资本市场的有效程度取决于市场信息在价格中的反映程度，一个完全有效的市场不存在获取超额利润的可能性，也就没有投机空间；它主要研究信息如何充分反映到价格中的过程。这一理论对规范资本市场，提高市场效率，控制过度投机有重要意义。     

二级市场股票交易价格调节系统研究

二级市场股票交易价格调节系统研究田玉清，贾春新二级市场股票交易价格除国家政治、经济大动荡，上市公司破产或被收购外，一般情况下是不应大起大落的（当然，由于一定范围内供需矛盾，股票交易价格在股票价值附近波动是正常的）。然而，由于严重投机，我国二级市场股票...     

2007年乘用车市场分析及预测

2007年乘用车市场供求及价格分析 2007年乘用车产销增幅虽较上年同期有所回落，但依然保持了近22％的增长水平，供大于求的市场矛盾继续存在并在下半年明显加剧。同时，乘用车市场价格继续下跌且跌幅高于上年。     

优化资源配置需要建立合理有序的市场价格机制

优化资源配置需要建立合理有序的市场价格机制马晓玲价格机制是经济运行的重要构成部分。所谓经济运行，是指各种经济主体，包括政府、企业和消费活动的相互传导过程。一定社会经济体制中的各类经济主体，对环境作出的反应称为经济行为，而主体间各种行为的相互作用、相互...     

浮动利率债券定价模型与实证研究

本文从利率期限结构的随机模型理论出发，应用Vasicek模型得到当前的利率期限结构的估计及其隐含的远期利率，进而确定浮动利率债券的未来收益率，再利用附息国债定价公式得到浮动利率国债的价格。实证研究表明，Vasicek模型确定的债券理论价格与市场价格相当吻合。     

Hawkes model for price and trades high-frequency dynamics

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by four kernels associated with, respectively, the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion, the impact of trade arrivals on price variations and the feedback of price changes on trading activity. It allows one to account for both stylized facts of market price microstructure (including random time arrival of price moves, discrete price grid, high-frequency mean reversion, correlation functions behaviour at various time scales) and the stylized facts of market impact (mainly the concave-square-root-like/relaxation characteristic shape of the market impact of a meta-order). Moreover, it allows one to estimate the entire market impact profile from anonymous market data. We show that these kernels can be empirically estimated from the empirical conditional mean intensities. We provide numerical examples, application to real data and comparisons to former approaches.     

中国利率市场的价格发现——对国债现货、期货以及利率互换市场的研究

本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。     

信息传导与市场整合——基于商品期货上市的准自然实验

从制度设计上打破市场分割、促进市场整合,对提高市场效率、促进经济有序健康发展具有重要意义。本文以商品期货上市作为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,实证检验了商品期货上市交易对现货商品市场价格整合的影响。研究发现,现货商品市场价格整合程度在相应商品期货上市后显著提升,这是因为商品期货上市显著地促进了价格信息在全国范围内的传导,且这种提升效应主要体现在价格信息传导比较顺畅的地区。此外,商品期货上市提高了现货商品市场价格同步性,缓解了现货商品价格信息滞后程度,降低了现货商品交易成本。进一步研究发现,商品期货市场的交易信息质量越高,越有利于提高现货商品市场的整合程度。本研究为当前我国建设全国统一大市场提供了一定参考。     

房地产市场垄断、供给失灵及其治理

本文在考察我国房地产市场供求特征及其经济后果的基础上,构造了一个具有正反馈效应的概念模型。认为由房地产市场的垄断特性带来的供给失灵使得房地产潜在使用需求受到抑制,投资需求得到强化,而这两者又放大和强化了房地产供给失灵,从而解释了我国目前房地产市场房价高、房屋空置率高的矛盾现象,指出房地产问题的根源在于市场垄断下的供给失灵,并提出通过增加房屋供给和制度建设两个方面来治理供给失灵、改善房地产市场运行的政策建议。     

A perfect storm in the financial market

This study provides a model explaining how small changes in asset prices may disrupt an entire financial market. Based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), our model implies that during a market crash, asset price changes affect the relative distribution of the CAPM betas of individual assets and force all tradable assets to co-move. Using US stock market data, our empirical results are consistent with the model’s predictions. Overall, the study aids understanding of the price patterns of assets during substantial market downturns, such as financial crises.     

宏观经济统计数据公布对中国金融市场影响的实证研究

本文分别运用无市场预期和引入市场预期之后的GARCH模型,研究消费者物价指数、固定资产投资增速、消费品零售总额增速、贸易顺差额以及货币供应量这五个宏观经济数据的定期公布对于我国股票市场、债券市场及外汇市场波动的影响。我们发现在股票市场,CPI统计数据的公布加大了日收益率的波动率,而其它经济数据的公布减小了其波动率;债券市场和外汇市场由于市场化程度较低,宏观经济统计数据的公布对其价格行为的影响较小。     

An information-based model of target stock price runup in the market for corporate control

The stock price runup of target firms in the market for corporate control has been anecdotally attributed to inside trading. Moreover, the empirical merger and acquisitions literature documents a time-varying level and duration of the stock price runup of target firms. Using a market microstructure approach, we model stock price runup as a stochastic process that shifts between a random walk without drift and a predictable process dependent on a parsimonious set of state variables. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, predictability in prices can be exploited only by the informed trader. The model is capable of explaining the complex stylized facts observed in stock price runup. It is also consistent with the merger wave literature, as we find that capital liquidity, economic growth, and market valuations drive the complex dynamics of stock price runup.     

Determinants of bid and ask quotes and implications for the cost of trading

Financial transaction costs are time varying. This paper proposes a model that relates transaction cost to characteristics of order flow. We obtain qualitatively consistent model results for different stocks and across different time periods. We find that an unusual excess of buyers (sellers) relative to sellers (buyers) tends to increase the ask (bid) price. Hence, the ask and bid components of spread change asymmetrically about the efficient price. For a fixed order imbalance surprise these effects are muted when unanticipated total volume is high. Unexpected high volatility in the transaction price process tends to widen the spread symmetrically about the efficient price. Our findings are consistent with predications from market microstructure theory that the cost of market making should depend on both the risk of trading with better-informed traders and inventory risk. We also find that order flow surprises have a significant impact on the efficient price and can also explain a substantial amount of persistence in the volatility of the efficient price. This dependence does not violate the efficient market hypothesis since the surprises, by definition, are not predictable.     

The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives

Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the unique behavior of power prices, and (2) time-dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement a model in which the spot price of power is a function of two state variables: demand (load) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 1999–2001, the upward bias in the forward price was as large as $50/MWh for some days in July. By 2005, the largest estimated upward bias had fallen to $19/MWh. These large biases are plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices; this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets.