关于我国经济增长因素的主成分分析

本文首先从理论上分析影响我国经济增长的各种因素,然后运用SPSS软件分析影响我国经济增长因素的主成分,最后运用Eviews对建立的主成分回归模型进行实证分析。基于分析的结果,提出若干政策建议,以更好的促进我国经济的稳定健康的发展。     

山东省经济增长影响因素分析

主流经济增长理论表明,资本、劳动力、产业结构、消费水平、科技以及制度因素是影响经济增长的主要因素,选取以上指标,运用灰色关联分析法对山东省经济增长与各因素的关联度进行了实证分析,结果表明,物质资本投入、科技因素及消费水平的作用更为显著,最后提出了更好的运用这些要素推动经济增长的相应的对策建议.     

陕西省人力资本与经济增长关系的实证研究

陕西省人力资本与经济增长关系的实证分析,引入生产函数模型,对物质资本投资、人力资本投资与陕西省经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,数据处理方面均扣除了价格因素,全部换算为1978年的不变价格,具有可比性,综合分析了陕西省人力资本对经济增长的推动性作用;第四部分根据实证研究结果得出结论,并提出加大人力资本投资力度以加快陕西省经济增长及转变经济增长方式的建议。     

经济增长、通货膨胀的税收增长效应研究

文章选用2001—2010年间的数据为面板数据,采用Excel分析工具,运用回归分析法,进行了税收增长、经济增长、通货膨胀关联度的实证分析。结果表明,我国税收收入的高速增长主要源于经济的高速增长,税收和通货膨胀之间有明显的互动效应;兼论税制因素和其他因素对税收增长的贡献,发现税制对税收增长有自动助推作用,其他因素中税收政策、经济危机冲击可能会使税收增长偏离正常的增长路径。     

对外贸易、政府支出对我国经济增长的影响

本文以1978年到2008年的出口、政府支出和国内生产总值数据为样本,实证检验了对外贸易、政府支出对我国经济增长的影响。实证结果表明,对外贸易、政府支出与我国经济增长之间存在着长期协整关系:对外贸易、政府支出对经济增长有显著的正向影响;短期内,由于误差修正的原因,中国出口贸易和政府支出的过多或过少,都会降低中国经济增长。最后,本文根据实证结果提出适合我国国情的政策建议     

基于VEC模型的中国经济增长因素的协整分析

本文关注影响我国经济增长的四个因素并对其进行协整分析。为了克服"伪回归"带来的不真实结果,首先对非平稳变量进行分析、处理,找到他们之间稳定的数量关系。然后,采用协整理论对变量之间的关系进行进一步的实证分析。最后得出结论消费在短期和长期都是拉动我国经济增长的主要因素;投资应具有合理性否则会阻碍经济增长;可以通过刺激消费来影响进出口与投资的途径从而促进我国经济增长。     

中国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响分析

首先对我国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响的正负效应进行了理论分析;接着,对我国贸易方式变化与经济增长的关系进行实证了分析。分析的结论是,我国贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响;我国进出口贸易方式的变化是导致经济增长变化的格兰杰原因;而且进出口贸易方式变化产生了不同的作用,一方面我国进口贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响,另一方面出口贸易方式变化促进了经济增长。     

经济增长因素分析 ——基于我国近二十年的实证数据

索罗模型通过资本、 劳动和技术三种生产要素来研究一国的经济增长,在此基础上,本文采用我国1995～2014年的相关数据,对影响我国经济增长的相关因素进行了实证分析.模型表明,制约我国经济增长的首要因素是国外投资,并且,劳动和资本在现实中不能完全相互替换.最后,根据模型结果提出了相应政策性建议.     

出口贸易对中国经济增长影响的再思考

本文分别从平稳的实际变量系统和非平稳的名义变量系统两个角度来考察出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。对于前者,利用传统的OLS回归方法和Granger因果检验进行分析;对于后者,则利用协整理论进行研究。实证结果表明,尽管中国经济属于多因素共同驱动的复合型增长而并非出口导向型增长,但出口贸易仍然是拉动中国经济增长不可忽视的因素之一,而且从长期来看,其对保持我国宏观经济系统的稳定运行有着重要意义。     

进口贸易对我国经济增长影响的实证研究

随着近年来进口的大幅增长,进口对经济拉动作用日益明显,我们研究对外贸易对经济增长的影响时,不仅要考察出口对经济增长的影响,也要考虑进口对经济增长的影响。本文以中国进口贸易的经济增长效应作为研究选题,研究进口贸易对我国经济增长的作用。本文在从需求角度出发,贸易对消费、投资和出口的实证研究说明尽管进口贸易是国民收入的一个负向因子,但是从系统角度来看,进口贸易与经济增长的三驾马车有较强的正相关作用。最后,在综合上述分析基础上,对如何进一步提高我国进口对经济增长的贡献提出了对策建议。     

Federalism,taxation, and economic growth

We present a model of endogenous growth where government provides a productive public good financed by income and capital taxes. In equilibrium, a decentralized government chooses tax policy to maximize economic growth, while a centralized government does not do so. Furthermore, these conclusions hold regardless of whether governments are beholden to a median voter or are rent-maximizing Leviathans. However, a decentralized government will under-provide public goods which benefit citizens directly, while a central government beholden to the median voter will optimally invest in such public goods.     

Entrepreneurship,innovation and economic growth

The linkages among entrepreneurship, creativity, innovation and economic growth are only vaguely understood presently. This paper is an attempt to improve that understanding. The first step in establishing the linkages requires the formulation of knowledge about the psychological make-up of entrepreneurs. These questions are pertinent: What motivates humans to become entrepreneurs? Are entrepreneurs “rational economic men”? How important are monetary rewards to entrepreneurial creativity ? The second step requires information about how the human brain functions. The brain is bi-hemispheric and both sides of the brain play an important role in human decision-making. Nevertheless, we have a cultural bias in favor of the functions performed by the brain's left side. The third step requires an understanding of the process of creation and innovation. Several stages in this process have been identified. The stages of preparation, incubation, and illumination involve the brain's right hemisphere while the verification stage involves the left hemisphere. The final step integrates the first three. We assume that entrepreneurship is an essential determinant of economic growth, that the entrepreneurial function involves creation and innovation, and that entrepreneurship can be taught. This article is intended to provoke thinking and research incorporating new insights from several disciplines. These insights appear to bear more on entrepreneurship than is generally acknowledged.     

Population,pensions, and endogenous economic growth

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.     

Institutions,social capability,and economic growth

I discuss correlations between the historical growth of social capabilities and patterns of economic growth across world regions since the industrial revolution and especially in recent decades. Based on this analysis, I argue that the apparent relationship between institutions and economic growth results in part because better institutional performance goes hand in hand with more advanced social capabilities.     

Education,economic growth,and brain drain

This paper constructs a two-sector overlapping-generations model of endogenous growth to study the effects of brain drain on growth, education and income distribution. It is shown that brain drain reduces the economic growth rate and generally hurts the non-emigrants through the static income-distributional effects and the dynamic damage on economic growth and human capital accumulation. If the initial rate of human capital accumulation is relatively low, brain drain could deteriorate both the sum of discounted income and lifetime discounted utility of a representative non-emigrant. The government can choose to spend more on education to lessen the detrimental growth effects of brain drain.     

Natural inequality,production and economic growth

This paper explains why the effect of income inequality on productivity and growth is ambiguous. When income distribution exhibits inequality levels that are compatible with accepted criteria, productivity and growth ensue. When the divergence from an acceptable level of inequality occurs, then under certain conditions, we may expect lower (higher) production levels and lower (higher) levels of economic growth.     

Complementarity,fiscal decentralization and economic growth

Theories of the voluntary provision of public goods and development economics have clarified that complementarity in the production process is a crucial ingredient to understanding how alternative economic environments affect economic performance. This paper examines how the structures of intra- and inter-regional complementarity affect the relationship between economic growth and fiscal decentralization. We provide a theory that describes how fiscal decentralization affects economic growth under various structures of regional complementarity. Our empirical analysis, based on a panel data set of the fifty states of the United States over the period of 1992–1997, supports our theoretical specification of the production function. Also, we observe a hump-shaped relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth that is consistent with our theoretical result. Our analysis also shows that the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization conducive to economic growth is higher than the average of the data in some cases, and hence further decentralization is recommended for economic growth. The previous version of the paper was presented at the 59th Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (University of Economics in Prague, Prague), the 2003 Fall Meeting of the Japanese Economic Association (Meiji University, Tokyo), the 60th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Institute of Public Finance (Kansai University, Osaka), and in seminars at Yokohama National University and the University of California, Irvine. The authors acknowledge the comments and discussions by people including Timothy Goodspeed, Kiyoshi Mitsui, Motohiro Sato, Etsuro Shioji, Tsunao Okumura, and Craig Parsons. We are also grateful for the comments by the Editor (Amihai Glazer) and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies. Nishimura acknowledges the financial support from JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) Postdoctoral Fellowships for Research Abroad.     

Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence

Optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one-sector models of economic growth. The relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state. Cross-country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates, even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions. Finally, by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization, standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady-state equilibrium.     

Entrepreneurship,income distribution and economic growth

Traditionally different factors and variables have been considered in the economic growth models. Following Solow’s model, economists considered physical capital and technology during 1950s–1980s. With the introduction of endogenous growth models, new forms of capital were introduced in the production function; human capital, public capital and more recently social capital. However, the consideration of qualitative variables is necessary to improve the economic growth analysis. The improvement of statistical information has favored their introduction in the economic growth models. Recently, “entrepreneurship” concept has been considered in this type of analysis. Entrepreneurship considers the capacity and ability to create new business and production activity. It is an activity not an occupation. Some authors like Schumpeter have included it in their models and they have analysed its effects on economic growth. But it is also necessary to include the role of social climate, that in a schumpterian way it could be represented by income distribution. The main objective of the paper is to analyze the relationship between entrepreneurship, income distribution and economic growth following the ideas developed by Schumpeter and we will contrast them from a empirical analysis using the GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) data.     

Endogenous lifetime,accidental bequests and economic growth

This paper introduces the concept of unintentional bequests in a closed economy à la Chakraborty (J Econ Theory 116:119–137, 2004) with overlapping generations. We show that scarce public investments in health can lead to poverty traps depending on the relative size of the output elasticity of capital. More importantly, the existence of unintentional bequests, rather than a market for annuities, means that health tax rates play a prominent role in determining the stability of the long-term equilibrium in rich economies. In fact, Neimark–Sacker bifurcations and endogenous fluctuations occur depending on the size of the public health system.