阿根廷金融危机的根源

一、阿根廷深陷危机１９９８年至今，阿根廷经济陷入停滞和衰退，即使在“新经济”的黄金时期，阿根廷经济也是毫无起色。四年多来，阿根廷的失业率在１５％以上。２００１年６月，阿根廷出现了剧烈的金融动荡，进入１２月以后，阿根廷局势急剧恶化，政局动荡，经济衰退，社会混乱，抗议活动和街头暴力活动不断，造成了巨大的经济损失。在短短的半个月时间内，换了３位总统，其中的１位总统甚至公开宣布，阿根廷无力偿付１３２０多亿美元的外债，成为世界上最大的暂停偿还债务的国家。阿根廷的国家风险指数也从２００１年初的８００点飙升到…     

阿根廷货币局制度何以不堪一击

货币局制度是指由法律明确规定本国货币与某一外国可兑换货币保持固定汇率,并要求本国货币的发行必须以一定(通常是百分之百)的该外国货币作为准备金保证的汇率制度。在这种制度下,货币发行量的多少由该国持有的储备货币量决定,货币当局失去了货币发行权;货币当局承诺按固定的汇率无条件地进行本币和储备货币的兑换。20世纪80年代,阿根廷因无法按时偿付巨额外债而陷入了二战后最严重的债务危机中,经济连年衰退,货币贬值,通货膨胀率高企,1990年通货膨胀率高达2314%。由于恶性通货膨胀,使经济运行混乱,公众对货币缺乏信心,引起货币对外贬值,而…     

阿根廷金融危机的货币局制度分析

90年代以初期，货币局制度较好地适应了阿根廷的经济状况，有效地抑制了严重的通货膨胀，稳定了金融形势。但货币局制度有着内在的缺陷，在阿根廷存在着高货币替代的情况下，货币局制度导致阿国政府丧失调节经济灵活性的致命弱点逐渐显露，继而导致了债务危机、金融危机的发生。     

阿根廷货币危机发生的原因及启示

本文考察了阿根廷经济的当前状况 ,对阿根廷发生货币危机的原因进行探讨 ,进而分析货币局制度对阿根廷经济的不利影响 ,并对同样实行联系汇率制度的中国香港提出了几点启示。     

阿根廷的货币危机:过去和未来

阿根廷的经济形势引起了人们对阿根廷是否会发生货币危机的关注。通过介绍70年代以来阿根廷历史上的货币危机以及分析阿根廷目前的经济状况可知，阿根廷经济中最严重的问题就是大量的公共债务和经济衰退，而造成这两个问题的深层次原因就是阿根廷目前的货币制度。大量的公共债务和经济衰退使阿根廷发生货币危机只是时间问题，一旦市场失去信心，货币危机就会随时爆发。     

IMF和阿根廷危机

阿根廷金融危机:一次特殊的金融危机 上个世纪90年代,国家金融危机此起彼伏.新世纪刚刚开始,发端于2001年12月的南美国家阿根廷金融危机,使人们又回忆起上个世纪的金融危机带给危机国人民深重灾难的噩梦,发展中国家和新兴市场国家不得不对未来经济充满着深深的忧虑.阿根廷金融危机从发生到现在已有半年多的时间了,但目前仍看不到局势走向稳定的明显迹象,阿根廷金融危机的深重和复杂性决定了其是历史上一次特殊的金融危机.     

新自由主义与阿根廷经济危机

本文从一个崭新的视角———"新自由主义"出发,即从新自由主义诸般理论主张到阿根廷新自由主义改革的种种实践,分析新自由主义改革与阿根廷经济危机的关系,并得出一些有益的启示。     

发展中国家的美元化问题及其前景

发展中国家的美元化问题作为一种事实一直是各方关注的焦点,赞成与反对两方各执其词。美元化在拉丁美洲的 实践有成功,也有失败。实施美元化的国家在消除货币风险的同时,也必须付出一定的代价。各国的实际情况和美国的态度 决定了美元化将是一个复杂而动态发展的过程。     

美元化的深远影响

美元化实质上是现代信用货币制度下出现的一种货币替代现象。美元化是指在美国以外的外国居民因对该国本币币值的稳定失去信心或本币资产收益率比美元资产收益率低时而发生的大规模货币兑换，进而使美元在交易媒介、价值储藏和计价标准等货币职能方面部分或全部替代本币的现象。美元化意味着一国经济体的外币(主要是美元)对该国的货币政策产生了直接或间接的影响。     

Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability*

Using panel data from the Argentine Permanent Household Survey, this paper analyzes which households were more vulnerable to the Argentine macroeconomic crisis during 1999–2002. Results suggest that the impact of the crisis was not uniform across households, which differed in their ability to cope with shocks. In particular, households with more children, and whose head was male, less educated, and employed in the private sector were the most vulnerable, suffering larger than average declines in income. Shocks to labor income were significant, with both unemployment rates and unemployment spells increasing throughout the period, particularly during the peak of the crisis towards the end of 2001. Individuals with low levels of human capital (proxied by education and experience), males, and self‐employed were more likely to lose their jobs. Public sector employees, in contrast, were more protected from the impact of the crisis on employment.     

Dollarization: asymmetry and breaks

This paper examines the role of asymmetry and breaks in the dollarization-exchange rate nexus. The paper considers how countries respond differently to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals (exchange rate dynamics), which is contrary to theoretical argument. The study’s estimation is based on both symmetric (linear) ARDL and asymmetric (nonlinear) NARDL models. We also account for multiple structural breaks, which are determined endogenously and also included in the (N)ARDL models. Indeed, we found that there is a short-run asymmetric effect of dollarization in Sierra Leone, South Africa, and Burundi. In the case of Ghana, we found a symmetric effect. However, when breaks are accounted for, asymmetry became evident in both the short- and long-run. These results are sensitive to changes in data frequency and the inclusion of various control variables. Policy implications are considered based on the obtained results.     

美元化问题研究

本文从对美元化概念的界定入手,将美元化划分为"货币替代"、"固定汇率"和"法偿货币"三个层次:通过对美元化的发展现状、美元化国家和美国在美元化中的利弊得失以及美元化衰退趋势的分析,认为虽然短期内美元化仍有市场,但长期看美元化必将衰落,美元化只是一种过渡性的历史现象.在上述分析的基础上,本文还就我国对美元化的对策提出了建议.     

What Can We Learn from the Current Crisis in Argentina?

Currently, Argentina is experiencing what the government describes as a ‘great depression.’ Using the ‘Great Depressions’ methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002) , we find that the primary determinants of both the boom in Argentina in the 1990s and the subsequent depression were changes in productivity, rather than changes in factor inputs. The timing of events links the boom to the currency‐board‐like Convertibility Plan and the crisis to its collapse. To gain credibility, the Argentine government took measures to make abandoning the plan more costly. Because the government was unable to enforce fiscal discipline, however, these increased costs failed to make the plan more credible and instead made the crisis far worse when it failed.     

Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas

This paper undertakes an empirical assessment of Dollarization versus regional currency union as options for the economies of East Asia, South America and Central America. We use summary indicators of bilateral integration to examine the determinants of real exchange rate volatility within each region and between each region and the United States. While Europe is characterized by a high degree of regional integration, there is evidence of increasing integration in East Asia and persistently low integration in the Americas, especially as compared to the levels of bilateral integration vis-à-vis the United States. Our estimates confirm the patterns of regional integration above and reveal substantial regional differences as to the determinants of real exchange rate volatility.     

Twin Crises in Emerging Markets: The Role of Liability Dollarization and Imperfect Competition in Banking

Currency crises in emerging markets have been accompanied by banking crises, with concentration in the market for bank credit increasing after large devaluations. This paper examines how the presence of imperfect competition and liability dollarization in banking shapes the real effects of the just mentioned twin crises. An important gap in the theoretical literature is filled, by being the first paper to provide a model of twin crises in the presence of imperfect competition in banking, and the changes in market structure that occur in the aftermath of crises. Doing so, the analysis is able to reveal that currency devaluations generate more severe twin crises in economies with less competitive banking sectors. This result is consistent with the empirical evidence on the concentration‐fragility view, and it unveils the importance of prudential regulation that focuses on the market structure in banking.