中国对非洲的援助政策及评价

对非援助一直是中国对非政策的重要组成部分,它经历了一个漫长的演变过程。中国对非援助已经成为一种独特的模式,这是一种成功务实的中国对非援助与经贸结合的合作方式,它对中非关系产生了重要影响,其得失也引起世界的热议。近年来,中非关系正经历着战略性大转变。中非双方应该共同努力,把这种关系更好地引导到促进非洲经济及社会发展的轨道上来,这是非洲自己的职责,也是中国的责任。     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

中国对非援助的减贫效应:基于时空估计策略的研究

随着援助规模不断扩大,合理评估“南南合作”框架下中国对非援助的减贫效应对回应外界质疑和优化资源配置至关重要。本文采用时空估计策略回归分析中国援助项目对撒哈拉以南非洲多维贫困的影响,发现中国援助总体有效降低了附近居民贫困程度。机制分析表明,中国援助不仅能够通过调整居民就业结构,带动当地工业发展和提升经济表现增加居民收入,还能通过提高公共资源可获得性改善居民福利水平。进一步地,当地受援强度、项目类型、受援国政府治理和自生能力差异均使援助减贫效应产生异质性。本研究推进了对中国援助有效性的认识,为进一步优化中非国际发展合作机制以提高援助减贫的可持续性提供了政策启示。     

平行经验分享:中国对非援助理论的探索性构建

随着中国对非援助政策和实践的不断推进,中国对非援助理论建构的意义日渐凸显。作者在社会科学研究实践转向的背景之下,通过综述国内外发展援助的研究文献,构建了平行经验分享的理论框架,该框架包括三个要素,即援助实践中流动的是发展中国家历经实践检验的发展经验、推动援助实践的是注重发展的技术专家以及援助实践促成的是中非发展共同体。此三要素正好回应了当前有关发展援助探讨中的知识体系、援助主体与援助影响这三个关键议题。基于上述理论框架,作者通过追溯中国对非援助的历史实践后指出,尽管在不同的历史阶段,中国对非援助的内容和方式等在不断调整,但发展经验的平行分享这一实质始终未变。这一新叙事隐含着平行关系下启发式学习的推进和非洲发展新形象的确立。这一实践转向的理论构建方式以及由此而生的发展经验平行分享理论将为新时期中国制定国际发展合作政策提供参考,也为完善全球治理提供新的发展知识支撑。     

关于中国-非洲能源关系发展问题的若干思考

近年来,在中非关系全面深入发展的背景下,中非双边能源投资额和贸易额不断增长,非洲石油对中国能源安全的战略价值不断显现;与此同时,石油政治(问题)日趋凸显。石油和能源是中非关系发展的重要基础和内涵之一,是能源市场发展到一定阶段的产物,也是中非关系不断发展和"双赢"的结果。在正常的世界石油市场体系中,中国在非洲的能源利益有其充分和正当的合理性,并不需要刻意掩饰或受西方"石油政治"的影响。石油政治将是中非关系发展的常态问题,也是中国对非能源外交面临的主要战略挑战。从保障国家能源安全、促进中非能源关系进一步发展的角度看,中国必须重视和应对非洲的"石油政治"问题,并在坚持原则的基础上,对有关政策进行必要的调适。     

关于中国-非洲能源关系发展问题的若干思考北大核心CSSCISSCI

近年来,在中非关系全面深入发展的背景下,中非双边能源投资额和贸易额不断增长,非洲石油对中国能源安全的战略价值不断显现;与此同时,石油政治(问题)日趋凸显。石油和能源是中非关系发展的重要基础和内涵之一,是能源市场发展到一定阶段的产物,也是中非关系不断发展和"双赢"的结果。在正常的世界石油市场体系中,中国在非洲的能源利益有其充分和正当的合理性,并不需要刻意掩饰或受西方"石油政治"的影响。石油政治将是中非关系发展的常态问题,也是中国对非能源外交面临的主要战略挑战。从保障国家能源安全、促进中非能源关系进一步发展的角度看,中国必须重视和应对非洲的"石油政治"问题,并在坚持原则的基础上,对有关政策进行必要的调适。     

意识形态先行还是民生改善优先?——冷战后西方“民主援非”与中国“民生援非”政策之比较

20世纪90年代冷战结束以后,西方和中国对非洲的战略都有重大调整。西方把推行西式的民主与价值观作为其对非洲战略的首要目标,把经济援助作为其在非洲推进西式民主的工具。中国则把扩大对非洲经贸合作、实现经济上的互利双赢作为对非战略调整的重点,通过改革援非的方式,形成了援助与经贸相结合的援非新政策。总体上看,以西方意识形态优先的援助方式脱离了非洲当下的民生急需,成效不甚理想。中国经济优先的援非政策却因较为理性务实,给中非双方都带来了实利,从而获得了持续推进的动力。目前,西方对非援助又进入了一个新调整期,意识形态优先的做法有所变化;中国对非洲的援助也需要适时调整,努力完善对非援助战略。     

加强对非洲基础设施领域投资

中非发展基金是我国在2006年合作设立的对非投资专项基金，是在新的历史条件下促进对非经贸外交合作的重要手段，对于我国对非投资和经贸领域具有特别重要的意义，中非发展基金的设立填补了传统对非投资援助和银行贷款之间的空白，能够在更深层次和更广的领域加强中非之间的战略合作，通过基金的投资，能够真正的提升非洲国家的技术交流和就业，因此也收到了非洲各国的广泛欢迎。     

发展引导型援助:中国对非洲援助模式探讨

本文将中国对非洲援助模式界定为"发展引导型援助模式",认为它是一种通过"援助+合作"的平等方式帮助和引导受援国实现自主发展,并最终实现受援国与援助国共同发展的援助模式。在援助理念上,坚持"平等互助、共同发展";在援助方式上,强调"平等协商、互利互惠";在援助目的上,致力于"以援助促发展,以发展促合作、以合作实现共同繁荣"。总之,中国对非援助已经形成了自己独特的理论基础和实践特色。     

中国在非跨国公司与国家形象

一些国家对中国在非洲投资及援助的关注,为中国在非跨国公司贴上了政治标签,从而渲染了中国对非洲战略的负面国家形象。与非洲国家经济发展利益相关的中国跨国公司,应成为塑造中国良好国家形象的重要载体。中国跨国公司积极履行企业社会责任,既有助于建构良好企业形象,也有利于形成中国尊重人权,是一个负责任大国的国际形象,进而促进中非传统友谊关系的发展与深化。     

Aid and economic growth in LDCs: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper uses a disaggregated cross-national time-series aid data and a Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) model to investigate the effects of aid on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that, contrary to what some critics of aid argue, aid has a small but positive and significant effect on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. A simultaneous equation specification of the model shows that aid affects economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa directly and indirectly through increased domestic savings and investment.     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

国际援助再分类及其对受援国经济增长的异质性影响

国际援助对受援国的经济影响在学界并没有一致的答案，文章从不同类型国际援助的影响具有异质性的角度再次探讨这一问题。文章的主要工作有两点：一是对援助类型的重新分类；二是根据新分类的援助，实证分析不同类型援助的异质性影响。首先，基于中观经济学对生成性资源的分类方式，文章提出资源配对援助法，将国际援助分为了商业性援助、开发性援助和公益性援助三类，并与经合组织债权人申报系统相衔接，建立了分类后的国际援助数据集。然后，在实证分析部分，分别研究了援助总规模和不同类型国际援助对受援国经济发展的影响。结果发现，援助总规模对受援国的经济正向影响显著。同时，开发性援助和公益性援助存在门槛效应和滞后性，两者都有显著的正向影响，而且开发性援助对受援国经济发展促进作用要强于公益性援助。     

21世纪初日本对非洲官方发展援助政策评析

2000年以来,日本官方发展援助总额持续下降,但是对非洲援助却呈现明显的上升趋势。日本对非洲的官方发展援助政策呈现出政治利益优先,强调亚非合作和经验交流,以及高度关注环境问题和气候变化的新趋势。入常和能源是日本对非洲援助的主要目的。为此,日本希望能成为亚非合作的主导者,通过中日合作,借力中国在非洲的影响力。但是,从非洲国家的角度看,日本试图通过援助换取政治影响力的作用有限。由于援助的宗旨和原则不同,中日在非洲开展援助合作的空间有限。     

Capital Inflows and Exports Diversification in Sub‐Saharan Africa during the MDGs Era

This paper explores the impact of different forms of capital inflows, including foreign direct investment, foreign aid, portfolio investment, and remittances, on exports diversification in sub‐Saharan Africa during the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era. We employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to deal with the endogeneity issue. Using a sample of 35 countries over the period 2000–15, it shows that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification depends on the type of capital. We find evidence that foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and remittances have positive effects on exports diversification, while portfolio inflows negatively affect exports diversification. Moreover, we find that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification differs across the region of destination of the exported products. This study underscores the important role of international cooperation and capital inflows in sub‐Saharan Africa, and lends support to policies aiming to attract foreign capital.     

Aid Effectiveness in Africa*

Abstract: This paper revisits the issue of aid effectiveness in Africa by examining the effect of aid on growth. Historically, Africa's development context appears to be an aid‐dependent one, and with the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) calling for additional capital flows to improve growth levels on the continent, and the attainment of the UN's Millennium Development Goals partly conditioned on aid inflows, there is a new urgency to evaluate the effectiveness of aid. Using a sample comprising 40 member countries of the African Union, and estimating fixed‐effects growth models, we find a positive and statistically significant effect of aid on growth. Aid increases investment, which is a major transmission mechanism in the aid‐growth relationship. An extension of our analysis to examine sources of growth finance shows aid, workers' remittances, debt‐service resources and domestic savings are important sources of development finance. Thus, for now, aid matters for the continent's growth. However, given the apparent donor aid fatigue and the debt servicing implications of concessional loans, the paper supports the need to strategize to reduce future dependence on aid.     

Confucius Institutes and FDI flows from China to Africa

Is the establishment of new Confucius Institutes (CIs) in African countries motivated by resource seeking? We focus on uncovering new empirical evidence about the establishment of CIs, whether they are related to natural resources, and the extent to which the establishment of new CIs and Chinese foreign aid flows affect one another. Whereas Chinese aid flows do indeed appear to be empirically associated with African countries' natural resources, the evidence we report suggests that CIs are established based on a distinct set of motives. We find that CIs, Chinese foreign aid flows to Africa and natural resources have joint predictive power on the subsequent year's Chinese FDI outflows. CIs are not, however, positively associated with the subsequent year's aid flows. And aid flows are not positively associated with the subsequent year's expected number of CIs. We interpret this as evidence that CIs reflect an economically significant expression of Chinese soft power. The goals underlying the expression of this soft power are not subsumed by natural resource seeking and are not easily compressed to a single dimension. The data show that CIs and aid flows are not positive predictors of each other and are not subsumed (i.e., made to disappear) by the inclusion of controls for natural resources. Thus, the presence of a CI reveals independent, novel, and economically significant information about future trade flows that cannot be explained away by differences in resources or other control variables commonly found in empirical models of trade flows. The empirical evidence suggests that CIs are indeed an effective instrument for increasing China's soft power but that this soft power is not motivated solely (if at all) by resource seeking.     

Aid Modalities and Budgetary Response: Panel Data Evidence

We investigate the budgetary effects of project and program financing on the behavior of recipient governments. For this purpose, we developed a simple fiscal response model. The solution of the model is then tested using panel data techniques for a relatively large sample of 106 aid-recipient countries spanning the period 1970–2001. With respect to public expenditure, our results suggest that the impacts of project aid and financial program aid on total expenditure are positive and statistically significant. In terms of the composition of total expenditure, we find that project aid flows are associated with increases in capital expenditure while financial program aid is associated with an increase in government consumption. Turning to the revenue side we found no evidence that aid flows, project or financial program aid, are associated with a reduction in taxation effort. The evidence also shows that project aid flows are associated with an increase in trade tax. JEL no. F35, H2, H5