Are there political cycles hidden inside government expenditures?

This article examines the presence of political cycles inside the Portuguese governments’ aggregate expenditures by using annual data for 10 expenditure components. The results indicate that the choice of the expenditure components to be increased during election periods by Portuguese governments generally relates to more visible items such as general public services, social protection and health care.     

Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea

Local governments tend to show strategic behaviours when making their spending decisions. However, few studies have examined strategic behaviours when promoting fiscal decentralization. Thus, this study empirically examines the presence of strategic interactions in expenditure decisions in South Korea as well as how fiscal decentralization affects those interactions, using a panel data set from 2010 to 2017. The results demonstrate that a local government mimics other governments' spending when those governments' residents share similar age demographics. Moreover, local governments in South Korea engage in strategic interactions as their expenditure side becomes more decentralized. However, local governments tend to demonstrate less isomorphic behaviour in welfare spending decisions when they have higher revenue decentralization. This is because local governments have no motive to emulate other welfare policies, as the central government delegates the provision of social services to local governments by providing grants with strings attached.     

Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in Australia

Projections of the social expenditure to GDP ratio indicate the extent of the ‘burden’ of population ageing on future workers and have been used by governments to aid policy decisions in such areas as immigration and superannuation. This article shows that the social expenditure to GDP ratio is heavily dependent on assumptions made about real spending growth, productivity growth, unemployment and participation rates. It produces a framework that makes the assumptions underlying the projections clear and enables the results of changing the assumptions to be easily compared. The projected ratios are significantly higher than those obtained in previous Australian studies.     

The time profile of public expenditure growth in India: An emprical investigation

Empirical tests confirm that the major social upheavals produced interfunctional and intrafunctional ‘displacements’ in government spending and thereby changed the character of public expenditure in India. There was a strong resurgence in the growth of public expenditure on social and development services; the State governments gained a greater role in this area in the post-disturbance period. Perhaps this could be inferred as a disturbance-generated ‘decentralization process’ giving a greater scope for the State governments in dealing with social and development services.     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

中国地方公共支出规模的膨胀性、成因及其控制

各国公共支出规模膨胀过程中的潜在问题,特别是欧洲一些国家的财政危机引起了人们的广泛关注。所以,研究在调整社会福利的同时降低政府公共支出规模的问题,就显得非常重要。根据中国省级政府的面板数据研究,结果发现:城市化对于政府支出规模具有明显的扩张效应,公共教育需求却具有明显的规模经济效应。基于实证分析的结果,未来中国的地方财政必须要优化支出结构、强化支出管理,在"有增有减、减大于增"的政策取向上进行改革。     

Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries

The authors make two contributions to the debate on aid‐effectiveness, illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other) expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development. Regression analysis confirms that these are not only direct expenditure on agriculture, but also on education and infrastructure, and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable pro‐poor expenditure patterns (and in particular pro‐agriculture expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which protect the poor against risk, the development of stable relations between governments and aid donors, and long‐term political commitment to pro‐poor strategies by government. The argument is pursued partly by panel‐data econometric analysis of developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of sustained and non‐sustained green revolutions in heavily aid‐dependent countries in Africa.     

现代化进程中的东亚行政改革

在现代化进程中,东亚各国(地区)的政府在大力推进经济社会发展的同时,本身也面临着革新的任务。特别是亚洲金融危机的出现和克服,进一步说明了加快行政改革的紧迫性和共谋行政发展的重要性。在东亚行政改革中积累了一些丰富的经验,值得中国借鉴。中国的行政体制改革和发展,应该立足于中国自身的环境和现实。     

对地方政府保障房支出缺口的估计——来自江苏省的证据

估计地方政府保障房实际支出与合理支出之间缺口的大小对于判断政府供给责任以及制定保障房建设规划具有非常重要的意义。为此,本文运用IMF较为齐全的40个国家(地区)2005-2007年的面板数据,估计了地方政府保障房的合理支出值,利用《2009年江苏省住房保障目标任务完成情况表》估算了江苏各市(县)政府保障房的实际支出值,以江苏各市(县)为例测算地方政府保障房支出缺口。估计结果表明,几乎所有地方政府均存在保障房支出的正缺口。经济发展水平居中且受到上级政府监管力度不大的苏中地区政府保障房支出缺口相对较大,苏南和苏北地区缺口相对较小。深化经济体制改革与加大监管力度双管齐下、约束地方政府非公共服务行为,有利于促使保障房的实际支出值等于或者接近合理支出值,从而缩小地方政府的保障房支出缺口。     

财政分权体制下的地方政府行为与中国经济增长——基于转型期的实证研究

以财政收支活动为具体体现的地方政府行为是在特定财政体制框架内,对财政资源在中央、地方和各微观经济主体(包括企业和个人)之间的筹集和分配,其实质是对诸多社会利益主体产权边界重新划分、界定而使其达到均衡.笔者从包含公共支出的内生增长模型,推出了反映宏观税负与经济增长关系的Laffer曲线;并利用转型期分省宏观经济数据对Laffer曲线进行了实证检验,揭示出宏观税负过重不利于经济增长的结论.     

Does development aid increase military expenditure?

Using a new instrumental variable strategy, we examine whether bilateral development aid increases military expenditure in recipient countries. The instrument is the interaction of donor government fractionalization and the probability of receiving aid. The dataset includes new data on military expenditure for 124 recipient countries over the 1975–2012 period. When accounting for outliers, our results do not suggest that development aid affects military expenditure in the full sample. However, the effect of aid on military expenditure varies across characteristics of recipient and donor countries, even after excluding outliers. First, aid increases military expenditure in countries that depend on aid and are prone to conflicts. Second, aid provided by coordinated market economies increases military expenditure.     

Asymmetric Decentralization,Intergovernmental Transfers,and Expenditure Policies of Local Governments

Although China’s asymmetric fiscal decentralization system has been criticized for many years, there have been few studies giving direct evidence of its negative incentives on local government spending policies. By introducing the mechanism of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers to the objective function of local government, this paper studies the incentive effects of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers on spending policies of local governments, and uses the provincial panel data to carry out an empirical test. The conclusion shows that the asymmetric decentralization significantly weakens the incentives of local government to increase social expenditure, and as a solution to asymmetric decentralization, fiscal transfers fail to play a good role. Due to the relatively large income effect, the financing mechanism of fiscal transfers not only significantly reduces the incentives of local government to provide social public goods, but also weakens the constraint effect of fiscal competition on expenditure policies of local governments because of the increase in the relative cost. Although the distribution mechanism of fiscal transfers has a significant positive incentive to local government in regions where the net inflow of fiscal resources is more than zero, because of common pooling effects, the comprehensive effects of fiscal transfers in the distribution of incentives of local governments to provide social public goods are negative in all regions.     

POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNANCE, AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This article aims at identifying the determinants of government expenditures of developing countries by placing emphasis on the political institutions and governance variables, which have not been addressed so much in the previous literature. Using a panel data analysis for 97 developing countries from the period 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that controlling for economic, social, and demographical factors, political institutional and governance variables significantly influence the consumption expenditure in developing countries. Political institutional variables such as the type of political ruling and political power in the parliament positively influence consumption expenditure; on the contrary, governance variables such as corruption influence negatively. Furthermore, we find that autocratic governments with military ruling are not particularly accommodative toward consumption expenditures as the public spending significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other forms of governance. In order to check consistency of our findings, we ran alternative specifications as well as conducted extreme bound tests. Our results largely survived these tests showing robustness of our findings. (JEL E01, E02, E61, E62, H2, H4, H5, H6, O11, O5)     

公共支出结构对收入不均等影响研究——基于公共服务均等化视角分析

收入不均等影响到社会公平与经济发展,而收入公平分配是政府的主要责任,也是政府公共支出的依据之一.影响收入分配不均等的因素有很多,其中由于政府相应责任缺位,公共支出结构偏向,使得公共支出中基本公共服务支出不足是其主要原因.本文实证分析得出公共支出总量与结构严重影响基本公共服务供给,进而影响着收入不均等的水平,成为社会公平和稳定的重要因素.政府应从制度上进行公共支出改革,规范督促地方政府优化公共支出结构,不断提高对民生支出的主动性,逐步缩小基本公共服务的差距,缩小收入不均等的水平.     

Fiscal decentralization and fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies

Results using event study analysis based on a data panel of expenditure and revenue developments in emerging market economies during 1972–2001 indicate that subnational governments supported fiscal consolidation efforts by cutting their capital expenditure and increasing their revenues.     

Continuity and Change: Labour Market Programs and Education Expenditure

Since 1971 Australian governments have varied expenditure on labour market programs and education. This article attempts to explain these changes in the context of several straightforward hypotheses concerned with political processes. In both policy areas the evidence is generally consistent with four views: that ALP governments spend relatively more than coalition governments; that ALP expenditure is more likely to be directed to the public sector, and coalition expenditure to the private sector; that governments of both political persuasions tend to move towards their opponents' position in budgets immediately preceding elections; and that, after the marked changes initiated in the 1972 to 1974 period, the parties have become increasingly similar in expenditure terms. Apparently there have been important differences between the political parties in government, but these distinctions have become less clear–cut over recent years.     

The impact of redistributive policies on inequality in OECD countries

Due to behavioural effects triggered by redistributional interventions, it is still an open question whether government policies are able to effectively reduce income inequality. We contribute to this research question by using different country-level data sources to study inequality trends in OECD countries since 1980. We first investigate the development of inequality over time before analysing the question of whether governments can effectively reduce inequality. Different identification strategies, using fixed effects and instrumental variables models, provide some evidence that governments are capable of reducing income inequality despite countervailing behavioural responses. The effect is stronger for social expenditure policies than for progressive taxation.     

Do public account financial statements matter? Evidence from Japanese municipalities

Many governments are introducing business-like accounting systems. This paper examines the fiscal effects of compiling business-like financial statements on the expenditures of local governments in Japan as a complement to cash-based reporting. Using the variation in the deadlines for compiling new statements given by the central government in a difference-in-differences instrumental variable approach, we found that business-like financial statements have limited effects on municipalities’ expenditures but have short-run effects on social assistance expenses. This might be a part of the reconstruction of their expenditure structure.     

地方政府支出结构的经济增长效应

文章运用面板数据分析方法对1998—2008年间我国31个省、自治区和直辖市的地方政府支出结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,生产性支出对经济增长的影响更为显著,东、中、西部的政府支出对经济增长的影响较为显著的分别是城市维护建设支出、教育支出和农业支出。从全国范围看,教育支出对经济增长的影响最为明显。