“One-deal-fits-all?” On Category Sales Promotion Effectiveness in Smaller versus Larger Supermarkets

Even within a store chain and format, supermarket outlets often exhibit substantial differences in selling surface. For chain managers, this raises the issue of correctly anticipating the promotion lift, and of profitably managing promotion activities, across these outlets. In this paper, we conceptualize why and how store size influences the category sales effectiveness of four promotional indicators (depth of the promotional discount, display support, feature support, and whether the promotion is quantity-based). We then estimate the net moderating effect on four product categories for 103 store outlets belonging to four chains. For each of the promotion instruments, we find the percentage sales increases to be lower in large stores. For instance, whereas a 10% point increase in feature activity enhances category sales by about 1.64% in a 700 m² store, this figure drops to only 1.03% in a 1300 m² store – a 59% reduction. This moderating effect is especially pronounced for discount depth, the relative sales lift from a typical price cut being about 78% lower in the larger-sized outlet. However, since large outlets also have larger base sales, the picture changes when we consider absolute sales effects. The net outcome is that deeper discounts or quantity-based promotions do not systematically generate larger or smaller absolute sales bumps in large stores, whereas for in-store displays and features, we obtain a clear positive (be it less than proportional) link between store size and absolute category sales lift. When it comes to margin implications, we show that large stores gain higher profit from price cuts than small outlets only as long as the retailer keeps part of the manufacturer discount to himself. Managers can use these insights to improve their promotional forecasts across outlets, as well as to tailor their mix of instruments to store selling surface.     

Do Promotions Increase Store Expenditures? A Descriptive Study of Household Shopping Behavior

An important question for retailers is whether promotions induce households to increase their in-store expenditures or merely reallocate a predetermined shopping budget. Should expenditures be fixed, retailers might decrease their profitability when running promotions by displacing expenditures from high margin to lower margin products. Using household level store receipts and an extended AIDS model, we provide evidence that while household expenditures do increase with promotions, there is also a significant reallocation of expenditures among the different categories. This implies that retailers have to choose carefully which products are promoted, if promotions are to increase profits.     

How category characteristics affect the number of store brands offered by the retailer: a model and empirical analysis

Our research examines why retailers offer, not one, but multiple store brands in some product categories. More specifically, we are interested in how certain product category characteristics affect the number of store brands. We model a product category consisting of two incumbent national brands that may differ in strength. The retailer may introduce one or two store brands depending on which maximizes category profits. Our analysis suggests that the retailer is likely to carry two store brands in categories where (i) the national brands are similar in strength; and (ii) the price sensitivity between the national brands is low. Interestingly, the conditions that support the introduction of more than one store brand are quite different than the conditions that would facilitate the introduction of additional national brands. We provide empirical evidence that support our model-based predictions.     

Drivers of the synergy between price cuts and store flyer advertising at supermarkets and discounters

Despite retailers’ intense use of both price cuts and store flyer advertising, it is still unclear whether and when it is beneficial for retailers to combine the two promotion tools at the same time as opposed to using them separately. We systematically investigate synergies between price cuts and store flyers for a broad set of 488 brands from 44 consumer packaged goods categories across six leading German retailers. We find that a clear majority of the brands benefit from positive synergies and hence, combining price cuts and store flyer advertising is recommended, especially at supermarkets. This synergy can be strong. For instance, a 15 % price cut without store flyer support at a supermarket, on average, increases sales by 11 %, and medium spending on store flyers for the brand at its regular (non-promoted) price results in a sales lift of 8 %. The combined use of both tools, however, increases sales by 52 %, much more than the sum of their separate effects (11 % + 8 % = 19 %). Yet, there is also substantial variance in the synergy, which we explain with retailer format (supermarkets versus discounters) as well as various brand and category characteristics. Our findings have important implications for the coordination of promotion activities by retailers.     

Evaluating the impact of VAT-free promotion: the role of loyalty program membership and category characteristics

This study examines the impact of value-added tax (VAT)–free promotions on sales performance. VAT-free promotions are a recently adopted form of price promotions where consumers are exempted from paying the VAT amount across almost all products in the assortment during a limited number of days. They are typically organized once per year and surrounded by a large amount of media attention from the involved retailer. To test the effects of this promotion on store and category sales, and investigate the differences between loyalty program (LP) members and non-LP members, the authors use scanner data from a Dutch durable goods retailer across a range of categories. The results show that VAT-free promotions positively impact store performance. Moreover, the findings indicate that more non-LP members are attracted to the store and that they increase the amount they spend in the store. While LP members also spend more in the store, this increase in shopping basket size does not compensate for the significant drop in the number of LP members that visit the store, leading to an overall decrease in sales coming from LP members during VAT-free days. We furthermore find that the positive effect of VAT-free promotions for non-LP members (rather than LP members) generalizes across all investigated categories. Our results provide key insights for retailers and direct marketers with regard to the effectiveness of VAT-free promotions in order to strategically segment the customer base.

     

Brand promotions as a lottery

This paper shows that imprecisely stated discounts in brand promotions offered in the form of a low-probability lottery can lead to higher sales (purchase intentions) and consequently profits than equally costly conventional promotions offering a precise discount on the entire stock. Results from two different experimental studies support our findings. For high-probability lottery-like promotions, imprecise discounts lead to a lower performance for the brand than conventional promotions. We attempt to explain the findings by drawing on the behavioral decision theory literature.     

Exploiting the installed base using cross-merchandising and category destination programs

We investigate two ways to increase sales and customer loyalty by taking advantage of a store's installed base of current customers. We propose a classification of products into two types. Products of Type 1 are products for which consumers have a loyalty to a specific retailer and, as far as possible, always shop at that retailer for these products. The other products (Type 2) are not associated with any retailer and are bought at whichever retailer consumers happen to shop when they plan or remember to buy the product. With this in mind, we test the potential of two marketing tools to help retailers increase their share of sales of the Type 2 segment. Using a category destination program we show that one can successfully transform Type 2 into Type 1 products. Using cross-merchandising promotions, we show that one can increase the sales of Type 2 products thereby gaining a larger share of discretionary purchases than what one would receive from a straight random allocation. Both series of tests yielded significant increases in sales and profits and were deemed successful by the retailers who implemented them.     

The dark side of multiunit discounts: Multiunit discounts reduce rest of basket revenue

Multiunit discounts refer to the practice of offering a discount on purchase of multiple units of a product. An example of multiunit discounts, which are commonly used by retailers, is ‘3 for $10’. While past research suggests that multiunit discounts generate higher sales than per-unit discounts, there is no research on how such discounts affect sales of other products in the store. We argue that consumers exposed to multiunit discounts may purchase the products offered as such to benefit from the deal. These customers, however, will spend less on other products, resulting in lower revenue from the rest of the basket during the shopping trip. Based on theoretical insights, we propose why such an effect could occur and test our arguments using store data and a lab experiment. The findings of this research suggest that multiunit discounts have a multifaceted impact on consumer decision-making. We also discuss the theoretical, managerial, and methodological contributions of this research.     

The impact of store flyers on store traffic and store sales: a geo-marketing approach

This paper analyzes the impact of the composition of a retailers’ weekly store flyer on store performance. The paper presents and tests propositions on how a store flyer’s size, its average discount size, and the allocation of store flyer space to category and brand types, affects store traffic and sales. The moderating impact of location variables—socio-demographics of trading area inhabitants, characteristics of the store and competition—is also discussed and empirically tested. The outcomes provide key insights for retailers with regard to the financial ramifications of store flyer competition.     

Consumer and Retailer Promotions: Who is Better Off?

The long-term effects of promotions on sales are increasingly linked to the supposed shift of economic power within channels from manufacturers to retailers. However, formal knowledge about how they influence channel decisions under different promotional arrangements and the distribution of channel profits remains very sparse. In this paper, I develop two 2-period models to investigate the impact on channel decisions and profits of manufacturer-controlled and retailer-controlled promotions targeted at consumers. My findings indicate that retailers always invest in retailer promotions, while manufacturers may find it optimal to not invest in consumer promotions. Economic power shifts from manufacturers to retailers when consumer promotions significantly expand the baseline demand in the long-term. Otherwise, manufacturers remain more powerful. Trade promotions or other profit-transfer mechanisms may be indispensable in easing conflicts over who should undertake promotions, especially when these promotions substantially increase future sales.     

Understanding the impact of store flyers on purchase behaviour: An empirical analysis in the context of Spanish households

The purpose of this paper is to analyse how Spanish consumers are really influenced by store flyers. The present study examines decisions of households regarding: (i) incidence (using a binary logit model); (ii) brand choice (using a multinomial logit model); and (iii) quantity (using a Poisson model). The models described above are applied to scanner choice datasets of the purchases made by Spanish households in two product categories (olive oil and coffee) over 53 weeks. The study finds that the main effect of such flyers is brand switching, rather than acceleration or stockpiling. However, consumers are not homogeneous in these responses to store flyers. Price sensitivity is found to be a more important driver of flyer-proneness than brand loyalty; moreover, the study finds a strong relationship between price-sensitive, flyer-prone consumers and decisions on incidence, choice, and purchase quantities. In contrast, the influence of the presence of brands in store flyers on incidence of purchases is not more prevalent among brand-loyal consumers than among non-brand-loyal consumer; however, such flyers are able to induce loyal users to stock up on their preferred brand. The managerial implications underline that manufacturers and retailers should be aware that the inclusion of a brand in store flyers (without necessarily offering a price discount) can simultaneously cut promotional costs and increase sales profits. In addition, managers should use other types of promotions (such as in-store displays) to encourage consumers to stock up on the brand.     

Polygamous Store Loyalties: An Empirical Investigation

Grocery store loyalty has been traditionally viewed as a trait of consumers toward a particular store for their overall shopping needs. In this study, we argue that store loyalty shall be regarded as category specific trait, that is, a consumer could be loyal to store A in category one while at the same time be loyal to store B in category two. We name this consumer behavior polygamous store loyalties.We use an in-home scanning panel dataset that tracks purchases of 1,321 households in 284 grocery categories across fourteen retail chains over a 53-week period in a large US market. First, we provide model free evidence of polygamous store loyalties in the data, even though the overall store loyalty based on the traditional view is low. Next, we propose a model to separate category specific effects from overall store level effects. Finally, we discuss how retailers can use the results to gain a new perspective on store attractiveness to improve overall store patronage.     

Cross channel effects of search engine advertising on brick & mortar retail sales: Meta analysis of large scale field experiments on Google.com

We investigate the cross channel effects of search engine advertising on Google.com on sales in brick and mortar retail stores. Obtaining causal and actionable estimates in this context is challenging: Brick and mortar store sales vary widely on a weekly basis; offline media dominate the marketing budget; search advertising and demand are contemporaneously correlated; and estimates have to be credible to overcome agency issues between the online and offline marketing groups. We report on a meta-analysis of a population of 15 independent field experiments, in which 13 well-known U.S. multi-channel retailers spent over $4 Million in incremental search advertising. In test markets category keywords were maintained in positions 1-3 for 76 product categories with no search advertising on these keywords in the control markets. Outcomes measured include sales in the advertised categories, total store sales and Return on Ad Spending. We estimate the average effect of each outcome for this population of experiments using a Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model. The estimates from the HB model provide causal evidence that increasing search engine advertising on broad keywords on Google.com had a positive effect on sales in brick and mortar stores for the advertised categories for this population of retailers. There also was a positive effect on total store sales. Hence the increase in sales in the advertised categories was incremental to the retailer net of any sales borrowed from non-advertised categories. The total store sales increase was a meaningful improvement compared to the baseline sales growth rates. The average Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) is positive, but does not breakeven on average although several retailers achieved or exceeded break-even based only on brick and mortar sales. We examine the robustness of our findings to alternative assumptions about the data specific to this set of experiments. Our estimates suggest online and offline are linked markets, that media planners should account for the offline effects in the planning and execution of search advertising campaigns, and that these effects should be adjusted by category and retailer. Extensive replication and a unique research protocol ensure that our results are general and credible.     

Identifying Sales Performance Gaps with Internal Benchmarking

This research investigates how retailers can benefit from identifying the sales growth potential of in-store salespeople in every product category. The proposed novel approach helps retailers develop an equitable evaluation of their sales force, using both observable and unobservable factors that affect sales. By extending stochastic frontier regression to a multivariate case, the resulting factor-analytic frontier formulation leverages the correlation pattern of sales across product categories and salespeople over time. A unique data set, from a franchise chain with 481 salespeople, operating in 35 stores and selling 11 related product categories, identifies a gap between observed category profits and an estimated profit frontier for each salesperson and category. This novel model also can benchmark each salesperson against all others across product categories while accounting for observable and unobservable factors. This approach has practical value, in that retailers can identify both top-performing salespeople and underperformers, who then might be matched to establish a positive learning environment that aligns top performers with proven sales expertise in a product category with peers who struggle with that category.     

The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China

Despite extensive use of weather data to adjust replenishment and inventory strategies in the retail industry, these companies do clearly know the effect of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance. How does weather affect consumers' purchasing behavior and thus retail performance? We study empirically these questions by analyzing more than 6 million transactions made by more than 1.62 million unique consumers at 146 convenience stores in a convenience store chain in China. We choose sun, rain, temperature, and air quality index as the main weather variables. We use the average number of items per order and the average price of each item in each order as indicators of consumer behavior, and use store daily sales as an indicator of retail performance. We found that under rainy weather, people will buy more products with higher item prices in one order. When temperature rises, people will buy fewer products with a lower item price in one order. In addition, sunny weather and rainy weather have a positive impact on daily sales than cloudy weather. Air quality has a negative impact on daily sales, while temperature has a positive impact on sales. Finally, we study the impact of weather on different product categories. We find that the results depend on the product category characteristics.     

Combining sell-out data with shopper behaviour data for category performance measurement: The role of category conversion power

Retailers need to manage a series of complex decisions relating to numerous products. To reduce this complexity, they have introduced category management practices, which consider groups of similar products (categories) that can be managed separately as single business units (SBUs). Although the concept that the store offer should be organised as a category mix and that this strategy allows for better overall store management is already consolidated, retailers still struggle to adopt an approach to the store performance measurement starting from a category level perspective. Nowadays, the available methods for measuring categories’ performance are quite limited. The current trend sees the measurement of category performance mainly based on sell-out data that are ill-equipped to fully address category management issues. Retailers should broaden their field of analysis not only by focusing on the product/sales perspective but also by including other methodologies such as shopper behaviour analysis. In this regard, the use of technology offers the retail sector new perspectives for those analysis. Therefore, we intend to contribute to the ongoing debate on the retail analytics topic by presenting a shopper behaviour analytics system for category management performance monitoring. More in detail, we could derive a new key performance indicator, category conversion power (CCP), aimed at analysing and comparing the single categories organised within the store. The research is based on a unique dataset obtained from a real-time locating system (RTLS), which allowed us to collect behavioural data togheter with sell-out data (from POS scanner). We argue that retailers could exploit this new analytical method to gain more understanding at the category level and therefore make data-driven decisions aimed at improving performance at the store level.     

Understanding the Characteristics of Price Elasticities for Frequently Purchased Packaged Goods

This study examines category and brand level factors of packaged goods to determine which ones are related to brand price elasticities. A new nonparametric method of elasticity calculation is presented that is suited to situations where detailed feature and display information is not available. To obtain results that lead to strong and reliable generalisations, we examine 26 categories and 110 brands using store level weekly scanner data. We also synthesise our results with four previous studies that have looked at determinants of price elasticities. Three factors consistently emerge as important drivers of elasticity. They are, competitive intensity in the category, whether or not the product is storable and the brand market share. A further, less certain, factor is the frequency of promotion activity, with categories and brands having more frequent promotions exhibiting lower sales increases when one or more of the brands price promotes.     

Store Brand Quality and Retailer’s Product Line Design

This study analyzes a retailer’s store brand quality decision in vertically differentiated product categories. We analyze a game theoretic model composed of one or two national brand manufacturers and a retailer, who strategically chooses the quality level(s) of its store brand(s) relative to the well-established national brand position(s) to maximize its category profit. Our analysis reveals that the nature of a retailer’s store brand quality positioning is quite different from the manufacturer’s national brand positioning decision, and that the best position for a store brand is not “as close to a national brand as possible” as previous studies suggest. Instead, the optimal quality position of each store brand is remarkably sensitive to the distribution of consumers’ willingness-to-pay. In particular, the relative proportions of quality sensitive consumers and price sensitive consumers determine the balance of three key strategic forces — the market expansion force, the retail margin force, and the consumer profitability force, leading to different optimal product line designs for store brands across different category environments. Interestingly, against multiple incumbent national brands, the retailer’s optimal product line design includes a store brand positioned at the highest quality level in the category only if most consumers are moderately quality conscious. We also analyze the implications of national brands’ brand equity for retailers’ store brand strategy.     

On consumer choice patterns and the net impact of feature promotions

Even in the digital age, feature promotions continue to receive significant investments from CPG manufacturers and retailers. Whether this is money well spent depends on consumers' (heterogeneous) tendency to switch brands or stores in response to features. This study proposes a ‘Mixed-pattern Random-effects Nested Logit’ (MRNL) model to analyse the effect of feature promotions in a multi-retailer multi-brand setting. Across 16 different CPG categories, our results reveal that in all cases a mixture of choice patterns prevails: about half of households exhibit a brand focus (i.e. rather substitute between stores offering that brand), the remaining half show evidence of a store focus (i.e. rather substitute brand offers within a visited store). We find that the size of the promotion lift and its underlying sources differ substantially between patterns. Brand-focused consumers are generally more responsive to feature ads than store-focused consumers – especially in low-concentration categories; while they imply much stronger cannibalization for the manufacturer, and much weaker cannibalization for the retailer. It follows that retailers reap much higher benefits in the brand-focused segment, while manufacturers may not prefer that segment in terms of net gains and must be wary of subsidizing those consumers. We identify household and category characteristics that underlie the choice patterns and offer opportunities for targeting.     

Supermarket suggested shopping lists (SSSL), promotions and grocery purchases

This study examines the effect of providing or not providing millennial consumers with a supermarket suggested shopping list (SSSL). At the same time, it tests the effect of providing consumers with a large number of in-store promotions versus no promotions. The study also assesses the moderating effect of price concerns on both expenditure and the satisfaction attained after a shopping trip. The results of an experimental design with 240 subjects in a simulated supermarket setting show that SSSL users spend less, and that heavy supermarket promotions increase purchases. However, if an SSSL is provided while products are highly promoted, this decreases consumer satisfaction. Offering consumer promotions to millennials without providing an SSSL results in the highest level of store sales. Findings of this study will be of interest to retailers willing to offer a shopping list service to supermarket customers with the purpose of increasing loyalty.