我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

近年来,我国房地产等资产的价格高涨所引起的“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”现象比较明显。通过观察我国近年来房屋销售价格指数和居民消费价格指数的走势发现,房地产高涨与通货膨胀之间具有很大的联动作用。因此,研究房地产价格与通货膨胀的关系,寻找破解房地产价格高涨、缓解通货膨胀压力的方法,具有重要的学术研究价值和现实意义。本文利用Granger因果关系检验模型,验证了我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系之间存在Granger因果关系,并围绕高房价是怎样影响通货膨胀的逻辑思路,提出破解高房价、缓解“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”压力的解决方法。     

我国股票资产价格与通货膨胀关系的研究

货币政策是否应该干预股票资产价格的波动,这是一个广受关注且富有争议的问题.这一问题的关键因素在于正确判断通货膨胀与股票资产价格的关联性.目前,股票收益率与通货膨胀之间存在四种相关关系,即正相关、负相关、不确定以及不相关.我国的资本市场成立较晚,研究股票收益率与通胀率之间关系的成果非常少.所以从我国沪深两市股指与通货膨胀走势、沪深两市股指波动区间、波动频率与通货膨胀间的关系,以及我国沪深两市股票市盈率与通货膨胀关系描述等三方面来揭示股票资产定价与通货膨胀间的关系,为全面认识我国证券市场与通胀间的关系提供实事依据.     

Dollarization,Inflation Targeting,and Inflationary Dynamics in Ghana

ABSTRACT

The impact of dollarization on domestic economic performance, and the welfare implications of high inflation in an inflation targeting environment, have remained a matter of much concern for policymakers in recent years. This study investigates the effects of dollarization on inflation and inflation uncertainty in Ghana for the period January 1990 to December 2017. We apply the exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model together with impulse response and Granger causality tests to explore how dollarization affects the behavior of inflation for the pre-inflation targeting period (January 1990 – May 2007) and post-inflation targeting period (June 2007 – December 2017). The results indicate that dollarization has not played a significant role in the volatility of inflation in Ghana. Also, inflation Granger causes dollarization in both the pre- and post-inflation targeting regimes. Finally, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty following the adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy. We conclude that, although inflation targeting has not presented a significant impact on inflation volatility, it has affected the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Ghana. The dynamics of inflation volatility and asymmetries present crucial implications which are discussed to guide policymaking.     

通货膨胀对传统历史成本会计的影响

通货膨胀已成为现代经济发展过程中不可避免的现象。在通货膨胀发生时,采用传统历史成本会计模式,既不能保证会计信息的真实可靠,也不能使货币和实物资本得到维护,无法维持生产经营能力。通过揭示通货膨胀给历史成本会计带来的影响,找出历史成本会计在通货膨胀环境下的种种缺陷,采用局部调整或全面调整的手段消除通胀的影响,可使会计信息的真实、相关得到保证。     

两岸通货膨胀及其不确定性研究

基于两岸1983年1月～2011年12月的通货膨胀数据,应用EGARCH-M模型分析了大陆和台湾的通货膨胀不确定性,结果发现两岸通货膨胀不确定性均存在杠杆效应,正向冲击大于负向冲击,台湾更易受到外来冲击的影响,台湾通货膨胀及其不确定性关系符合Holland假说。格兰杰因果关系检验得出两岸通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性关系均符合Friedman-Ball假说,两岸通货膨胀之间、通货膨胀不确定性之间存在相互影响关系。     

我国近期通货膨胀的影响因素与治理对策

自08年金融危机以来,我国通货膨胀的问题随着2009年经济呈现"v"型反转的出现也显现出来了,而且呈现愈加严重的情况.本文对当前我国的经济形势进行了分析,从而对形成我国通货膨胀的主要原因进行了研究总结,并提出了相应的治理对策.     

The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation

The most flamboyant economic effect of the euro changeover on consumers was a dramatic increase in perceived inflation. To directly measure perceived inflation, Brachinger developed a new index of perceived inflation (IPI). This index is based on some hypotheses about factors influencing perceived inflation. An experimental study is presented which investigated the influence of two of these hypothesized factors, purchase frequency and loss aversion, on individual judgments of price changes. Furthermore, two additional factors have been included that are informative with respect to the IPI, product segment and price level. Judgments of inflation were assessed with three methods, yielding different results. Empirical evidence for the hypotheses was obtained.      

人民币升值背景下的通货膨胀问题

在中国通货膨胀引起全社会广泛关注的同时,人民币也受到以美国为首等国家的升值压力.人民币升值能否抑制中国目前的高通胀问题引发了热烈争论.从经济理论与现实结合研究表明:流动性过剩对通货膨胀的推动作用远远大于人民币升值对通货膨胀的抑制作用,人民币升值在短期内无法缓解通货膨胀.     

对目前通货膨胀现象的理论分析

本文通过对哈耶克有关文献的梳理,着重指出目前的通货膨胀是一种＂凯恩斯的通货膨胀＂,进而从理论上指出：凯恩斯通货膨胀是一种＂人为＂性质的通货膨胀,是一种忽视生产过程和结构的通货膨胀,是一种在经济和政治层面上将造成危害的通货膨胀。在国内外通货膨胀已存蔓延之势的情形下,批判凯恩斯通货膨胀将为中国制止通货膨胀从心理、政治和现实三个方面提供思想资源。     

我国当前通货膨胀产生的原因及对策分析

一直以来,通货膨胀问题都是困扰各国经济发展的顽石,尤其对社会经济发展和人民生活稳定造成了极大的冲击。2010年以来,我国的通货膨胀问题加剧,主要原因为需求拉上和成本推动,针对这些问题,我国应采取＂需求紧缩,共计扩张＂相结合的政策措施。     

通货膨胀对我国股市条件波动影响的统计检验

将通货膨胀因素引入到GARCH模型的方差方程中,以检验通货膨胀、通货膨胀变动以及通货膨胀不确定性对股市条件波动的影响。实证分析的结果表明,在统计意义上,通货膨胀及其变动对股市收益的条件波动几乎不会产生影响,而通货膨胀不确定性对股市波动的影响是显著的。这一结果意味着管理好通胀预期,降低通货膨胀不确定性,引导公众形成合理的通胀预期对促进股市平稳发展具有重要意义。     

Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?

This article assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity), and efficiency. Three main findings are established: (a) there are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals; (b) the error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship; and (c) in the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.     

MARKETS FOR INFLATION‐INDEXED BONDS AS MECHANISMS FOR EFFICIENT MONETARY POLICY

We consider a continuous‐time framework featuring a central bank, private agents, and a financial market. The central bank's objective is to maximize a functional, which measures the classical trade‐off between output and inflation over time plus income from the sales of inflation‐indexed bonds minus payments for the liabilities that the inflation‐indexed bonds produce at maturity. Private agents are assumed to have adaptive expectations. The financial market is modeled in continuous‐time Black–Scholes–Merton style and financial agents are averse against inflation risk, attaching an inflation risk premium to nominal bonds. Following this route, we explain demand for inflation‐indexed securities on the financial market from a no‐arbitrage assumption and derive pricing formulas for inflation‐linked bonds and calls, which lead to a supply‐demand equilibrium. Furthermore, we study the consequences that the sales of inflation‐indexed securities have on the observed inflation rate and price level. Similar to the study of Walsh, we find that the inflationary bias is significantly reduced, and hence that markets for inflation‐indexed bonds provide a mechanism to reduce inflationary bias and increase central bank's credibility.     

货币需求、货币溢出与通货膨胀:基于中国货币现象的实证检验

根据所承担的职能,本文将货币分为贮藏货币和交易货币,认为通货膨胀会通过费雪效应导致贮藏货币向交易货币的溢出,而这一溢出又会通过交易方程式机制加剧通货膨胀.这就形成了一个动态循环机制.本文在设置了一个贮藏一交易货币转移方程的基础上,构建了一个关于通货膨胀的动态模型,考察了这一循环机制,发现如果货币溢出的通货膨胀弹性足够大,就会使得通货膨胀走向发散.通过实证检验,我们发现我国虽仍具有刚性的储蓄倾向,但是近期的通货膨胀已经造成了贮藏货币向交易货币的溢出,而这种溢出如果不能被抑制,则很可能会进一步加剧通货膨胀,形成一种恶性循环.同时也提醒我们,如果存在经济衰退预期,交易货币会被贮藏货币吸收而造成通货紧缩.     

通货膨胀对低收入群体的影响

通货膨胀对低收入群体造成的影响是财富水平被更多地稀释、利益分配更为不利、基本生活更为窘迫。富人和低收入人群的财富水平不仅表现在数量上的悬殊,同时也表现在结构上的差异。通货膨胀对高收入群体的影响,主要是货币贬值、购买力下降,不会对其生存构成威胁。但对低收入群体等弱势群体来说,通货膨胀无疑切断了他们生存的脉搏,生活的希望。     

通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析：货币错配的视角

随着经济全球化、金融一体化浪潮的兴起以及金融创新的不断推进,传统的货币政策框架日益受到冲击和挑战,近年来在许多国家已取得良好效果的通货膨胀目标制正受到越来越多的关注,很多学者认为我国也应该采取通货膨胀目标制。本文正是在这种背景下,在考察了我国货币错配现状并界定通货膨胀目标制内涵的基础上,从分析货币错配影响通货膨胀目标制实施的内在机制这一视角,结合我国特殊的国情对通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性进行了研究。     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

东亚通货膨胀趋势及决定因素

文章选取11个东亚国家和地区的数据为代表,采用针对不同国家的最优ARIMA模型预测东亚通货膨胀的发展趋势,发现东亚大部分国家面临较大的通货膨胀压力,通货膨胀持续上涨的趋势明显。并采用面板数据和Pooled-OLS分析法分析东亚通货膨胀的决定因素,研究表明东亚的通货膨胀形成的原因复杂,在惯性通胀、产出缺口、国际油价和粮食价格等多个因素的共同作用下形成;并发现次贷危机前后的东亚通货膨胀的决定因素有所不同,次贷危机前石油和粮食价格等成本因素大大地推动了东亚的通货膨胀,次贷危机后产出缺口等需求因素较大地影响了东亚的通货膨胀。针对东亚通货膨胀问题,文章提出包括中央银行改革、紧缩性货币政策、能源和粮食储备战略和调控个别行业或商品的对策和建议。     

中国当前的通货膨胀及采购方略

近年来,在我国当前的通货膨胀及采购方略中,我国经济从通货紧缩走出后呈加速状态,已进入通货膨胀周期。本轮通货膨胀有我国国内经济原因,也有明显的成本输入特征。所以,在通货膨胀周期里,进行何种采购的方略尤为重要。