分工演进与经济增长的理论模型分析

本文以Yang and Borland(1991)的内生分工演进模型为基础,将模型由比较静态分析发展到完全动态的分析,分析了分工水平的发展路径以及专业化程度、交易成本、分工水平与地区经济增长间的影响关系,发现地区分工水平的演进为地区经济增长的主要动力,交易成本的变化、专业化程度的演进均为影响地区经济增长与分工演进的重要因素。在分工水平演进的不同阶段,分工水平、交易成本对地区经济增长的影响均具有不同的效果,而熟能生巧以及"干中学"所引致的专业化程度的演进则是不同地区分工水平演进的动力,同时也是影响分工水平增长速度的主要因素。     

上海建成国际金融中心的四大难题

所谓金融中心分为三个层次，其中第一层次是国内金融中心；一旦其辐射能力和服务功能超越国界，就上升为第二层次，成为区域性国际金融中心，如法兰克福、巴黎、香港等；如果其辐射能力和服务功能进一步覆盖全球，也就一跃而上第三层次，成为全球性国际金融中心，如伦敦、纽约、东京。国际金融中心的形成有两条途径：一是实体经济发展推动的自然结果；二是依靠国家对具备条件的中心经济城市的政策扶持。我国是从计划经济逐步转向市场经济的经济体，金融中心的建设属于国家战略，离不开国家政策的支持。目前，上海金融发展水平虽然处于国内领先地位，但与当今国际金融中心相比，差距依然很大。本文将分析目前上海建成国际金融中心存在的四个方面的难题，并提出相应的破解策略。     

灰色关联度法研究香港国际航运中心和国际金融中心的关系

本文通过建立航运中心和金融中心评价指标体系,利用灰色关联分析法从定量角度研究香港国际航运中心和国际金融中心的联动关系。研究结果显示,香港国际航运中心和国际金融中心存在一定的关联性,其关联度大于国民经济发展水平对两者的影响,且金融中心对航运中心的影响程度要大于航运中心对金融中心的影响程度。     

金融中心——国际化大都市的重要内涵

所谓国际金融中心,即国际上资金融通、集散和交易的中心城市。20世纪中后期以来,科技进步大大加快了国际金融中心城市的发展,形成了多层次、多元化的趋势,出现了一个国家或地区内同时拥有若干个功能互补、层次不同的全球性国际金融中心、区域性国际金融中心以及国内金融中心的局     

建设国际金融中心的国家获益

国际金融中心建设对国家而言,是遵循金融业空间发展规律,促进国内金融业发展的手段,而不是目的本身。通过健全国内金融体系,促进有效投融资和有效率的资源配置,实现经济又好又快的增长,实现民富国强,才是国际金融中心建设体现国家全局利益的核心所在。     

香港作为国际金融中心的优势及挑战——简评香港金融管理局的“策略文件”

香港作为国际金融中心的众多优势中,其中举足轻重、不可或缺的优势就是与中国的联系,或者说,是“中国因素”的影响。从发展趋势看,香港极有可能成为“中国的纽约”,这种态势将大大加强香港作为亚洲主要国际金融中心的份量和地位。     

安徽产业演进机制与区域主导产业成长研究

主导产业的发展水平是决定一个国家或地区产业结构水平、经济增长质量的根本因素。资源再配置机制、产业关联传导机制的演化作用是影响主导产业成长的重要因素,文章通过大量数据的实证研究,分析了安徽主导产业演进状况,指出发挥演进机制作用、加快产业成长的路径。     

国际金融中心形成模式和条件及对上海的启示

文章比较分析了国际金融中心形成的两种模式:自然形成模式(或市场主导型)和国家建设模式(或政府主导型),提出了上海建设国际金融中心的选择,并通过重点分析国际金融中心形成的多种因素和条件,得出上海建设国际金融中心的启示.     

全球金融中心的分类和区位布局

本文对全球金融中心做了科学分类,对国际金融中心的概念做了界定。对几个重要金融中心的区位以及国家政体做了一些比较分析,涉及到经济地理因素、各国历史背景、经济政策、金融机构因素;做出了上海将会成为中国国际金融中心的推断。     

贸易失衡的根源:汇率还是经济结构——基于美国案例的实证分析

本文基于协整理论、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等时间序列处理技术对美国经济结构、财政赤字、汇率与其贸易收支之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:长期内,实体经济占比的增加会改善贸易收支,虚拟经济占比、财政赤字增加会恶化贸易收支,而汇率水平对于贸易收支的影响不显著;短期内,实体经济占比、虚拟经济占比对贸易收支的影响与长期相一致,财政赤字则相反,而汇率水平的上升在短期内导致贸易盈余的增加,但弹性值有变小的趋势。其政策的含义在于:影响美国贸易收支的主要因素来自其财政赤字及其国内经济结构,即实体经济与虚拟经济创造GDP的比例关系,而非汇率因素。因此,只有通过协调其国内实体经济与虚拟经济的发展,减少财政赤字,收缩储蓄-投资缺口才可以有效地调节贸易失衡问题,而不能一味地强调汇率因素。     

Understanding the Growth of African Financial Markets*

Abstract: This paper examines empirically the determinants of financial market development in Africa with an emphasis on banking systems and stock markets. The results show that income level, creditor rights protection, financial repression, and political risk are the main determinants of banking sector development in Africa, and that stock market liquidity, domestic savings, banking sector development, and political risk are the main determinants of stock market development. We also find that liberalizing the capital account promotes financial market development only in countries with high incomes, well‐developed institutions, or both. The powerful impacts of political risk on both banking sector and stock market development suggest that resolution of political risk may be important to the development of African financial markets.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

基于上海国际金融中心建设的进度与对策研究

上海金融中心建设已经成为国家战略,加快推进上海国际金融中心的关键环节建设,对于提升上海金融中心的整体功能具有重要意义。文章根据国际金融中心的指标评估与分析得到的结论证明,上海国际金融中心还不是真正意义上的全球性国际金融中心,目前正处于由国内中心金融到区域(APEC)金融中心转变的阶段。上海的区位优势明显,但是金融集聚优势不明显,制度与政策的限制重重,导致国内金融机构缺乏国际竞争力,金融业务创新原动力不足。若不在这个关键环节着力改善,将阻碍上海国际金融中心的发展进程。     

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in Developing Asia during the 1966–2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in Developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy, that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development, and that the impacts of income levels and the level of financial sector development have been nonlinear (convex and concave, respectively). We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in Developing Asia for the 2011–2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in Developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in Developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.     

ROLE OF GOVERNANCE IN EXPLAINING DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA

This study examines the determinants of domestic investment in Nigeria with a special focus on the role of governance. The estimations are carried out with time series data from 1975 to 2009 using the Johansen estimation techniques. The results conform to the findings of existing literature that real output, user cost of capital and level of financial development are significant determinants of domestic investment in Nigeria. The distinctive feature of the paper is the significant role played by governance in explaining the long‐term pattern of domestic investment in Nigeria. The results from the long‐run estimation and the impulse responses revealed that a well‐structured and stable socio‐economic environment will boost domestic investment over the long run. Therefore, in modelling domestic investment for Nigeria, it is imperative to incorporate the significant role played by governance. 1     

The micro-economic effects of financial market structure: evidence from 20th century North American steel firms

This paper analyzes the historical relationship between domestic financial institutions, firm level financing decisions, and average capital costs in a sample of US and Canadian firms from a large and economically important manufacturing industry—primary steel production. We find that national capital market characteristics and firm specific characteristics were important determinants of 20th century US and Canadian steel firms’ financing decisions. We also show that, despite source-specific price differences, average capital costs were approximately equal in the two countries, and the firms’ financing decisions were important determinants of these average capital costs. We conclude that firms structured their balance sheets in an effort to exploit the idiosyncratic features of their domestic financial institutions, and thereby, minimize their average capital costs.     

Cryptocurrency,Money Demand and the Mundell-Fleming Model of International Capital Mobility

Atlantic Economic Journal - If cryptocurrencies are perceived as financial innovations that could disrupt domestic and international financial systems, it becomes imperative for economists to...     

Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center

We study the pattern of volatility of gross issuance in international capital markets since 1980. We find several short-lived episodes of high volatility. Over the long run, however, volatility has declined, suggesting that international financial integration has not made financial markets more erratic. We use VAR analysis to examine the determinants of the time-varying pattern of volatility, focusing in particular on the role of financial centers. Our results suggest that a significant portion of the decline in volatility of issuance in international capital markets can be explained by the reduction in the volatility of US interest rates.     

金融监管国际合作机制问题研究

借鉴国内外理论研究成果和金融监管国际合作成功经验的基础上,探讨了推动金融监管国际合作的因素与机制,认为金融监管国际合作的发展与深化是金融国际化深入发展的必然结果和要求,合作的根本动因是利益驱动,也就是监管合作的效应。最后提出了深化金融监管国际合作的对策建议。     

Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature

Monetary economists have long been interested in economic history as a laboratory for the testing of theory. This paper surveys recent work in monetary history within the context of the modern quantity theory of money and the new classical macroeconomics. Topics surveyed include the development of historical monetary statistics and the determinants of money supply and money demand; historical uses of Granger-Sims causality tests of the relationships between money, prices, and output; historical studies of the secular behavior of velocity; the Great Depression; financial crises; historical evidence for the long-run and short-run neutrality of money; and domestic and international aspects of monetary standards. Each topic surveyed concludes with an evaluation and an agenda for future research.