上海A股市场股价波动相互影响能力实证研究

股票市场中股票价格的波动是相互影响的,但不同的股票其价格波动时对其他股票价格行为的影响能力是不同的。本文通过对我国上海A股市场的实证分析表明,有少数股票其价格波动时对其他股票价格行为有很强的影响能力,而大多数股票的这种影响能力很小。此外,单个股票价格波动时引起其他股票价格涨、跌的能力一般都有显著差异。     

Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices

This paper examines price effects related to one day abnormal returns on the stock market indices of both developed and emerging countries while accounting for differences between environmental, social, governance (ESG), and conventional indices. Using daily data from MSCI family indices from 2007 to 2020 and various methods to avoid methodological bias, the following hypotheses are tested: after one-day abnormal returns, specific price effects (momentum/contrarian) appear (H1) in cases of positive (H1.1) and negative (H1.2) returns, price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in the case of traditional indices as compared to ESG indices (H2), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger during the crisis period (H3), a dynamic trigger approach is more appropriate for defining abnormal returns than a static approach (H4), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in emerging markets as compared to developed ones (H5). The results are mixed in the case of H1 and provide no evidence in favor of H2-H5. They also show no significant differences between ESG and conventional indices. The types of detected price effects are the same for the cases of ESG and conventional indices; their power is different in some cases. Overall, a strong contrarian effect is observed in the US stock market after one-day abnormal returns; a trading strategy constructed based on this observation could generate profits from trading. The main results offer additional evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and provide implications that can assist practitioners in beating the market.     

Econometric Analysisof Collusive Behaviorin a Soft-Drink Market

This paper proposes an empirical methodology for studying various (implicit or explicit) collusive behaviors on two strategic variables, which are price and advertising, in a differentiated market dominated by a duopoly. In addition to Nash or Stackelberg behaviors, we consider collusion on both variables, collusion on one variable and competition on the other, etc. Using data on the Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola markets from 1968 to 1986, full information maximum likelihood estimation of cost and demand functions are obtained allowing for various collusive behaviors. The collusive hypothesis is not rejected, and the best form of collusive behavior is selected via nonnested testing procedures. Using the best model, Lerner indices are computed for both duopolists to provide summary measures of market power. Finally, our approach is contrasted with the conjectural variation approach and is shown to give superior results.     

Cross-sectional implications of dynamic asset pricing with stochastic volatility and ambiguity aversion

Building on recent research that highlights the importance of macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity aversion in explaining the dynamics of stock returns, in this paper we propose a dynamic asset pricing model that simultaneously accounts for stochastic macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity, assuming that investors deal with uncertainty about the mechanics of macroeconomic fluctuations using first-release consumption and revisions to aggregate consumption on vintage data. Our results show that the proposed model captures a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation of excess returns for a wide range of market anomaly portfolios. Furthermore, while the price of risk for ambiguity is positive and significant for the vast majority of assets under study, macroeconomic volatility yields ambiguous outcomes, although it significantly increases the explanatory power of the model for specific assets. Our results suggest that macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity complement each other in explaining the cross-sectional behavior of stock returns.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

Why Lever into a Zero-Profit Industry: Tying, Foreclosure, and Exclusion

This paper considers the incentives of a firm with power in a market for one good to tie in the sale of a complementary good even though the complementary good is produced in a zero profit market. If the zero-profit price of the tied good is greater than the marginal cost (which occurs for example when the technology is characterized by a fixed cost and a constant marginal cost), a firm will fie in order to increase the sales of the complementary good, which at the margin is profitable. We show that such tying will lower the effective prices paid by customers and increase welfare. This incentive exists if the firm with market power is a monopolist or one of several competing oligopolists.     

Disclosure quality,price efficiency,and expected returns

Using a composite disclosure quality measure, we examine the effect of disclosure quality on price delay and the effect of price delay determined by disclosure quality on expected returns in the Taiwan stock market. We find that higher disclosure quality can reduce stock price delay through more investor attention and higher stock liquidity after we control for accounting quality variables and consider the endogeneity issue. Furthermore, we show that disclosure quality reduces expected stock returns through the price efficiency channel associated with both investor attention and stock liquidity. Our results indicate that increasing a firm’s standardized information rating by one standard deviation can reduce its expected stock return by 0.63% annually. Taken together, our evidence suggests that regulatory activities enforced to improve public firms’ disclosure quality in the Taiwan stock market can make the stock market more efficient and therefore lower investors’ required return for stocks.     

Stable cost sharing in production allocation games

Suppose that a group of agents have demands for some good. Every agent owns a technology which allows them to produce the good, with these technologies varying in their effectiveness. If all technologies exhibit increasing returns to scale (IRS) then it is always efficient to centralize production of the good, whereas efficiency in the case of decreasing returns to scale (DRS) typically requires to spread production. We search for stable cost allocations while differentiating allocations with homogeneous prices, in which all units produced are traded at the same price, from allocations with heterogeneous prices. For the respective cases of IRS or DRS, it is shown that there always exist stable cost sharing rules with homogeneous prices. Finally, in the general framework (under which there may exist no stable allocation at all) we provide a sufficient condition for the existence of stable allocations with homogeneous prices. This condition is shown to be both necessary and sufficient in problems with unitary demands.     

Do cryptocurrencies provide better hedging? Evidence from major equity markets during COVID-19 pandemic

Using the five-minute interval price data of two cryptocurrencies and eight stock market indices, we examine the risk spillover and hedging effectiveness between these two assets. Our approach provides a comparative assessment encompassing the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 sample periods. We employ copula models to assess the dependence and risk spillover from Bitcoin and Ethereum to stock market returns during both the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk spillover from Bitcoin and Ethereum to stock market returns. The findings vis-à-vis portfolio weights and hedge effectiveness highlight hedging gains; however, optimal investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum have reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the cost of hedging has increased during this period. The findings also confirm that cryptocurrencies cannot provide incremental gains by hedging stock market risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

On the estimation of returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups

A number of theoretical results on estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups are derived when there are multiple outputs and inputs. The choice of value added versus gross output and problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy are also considered. Using US data on manufacturing, evidence is found of increasing returns to scale across all levels of aggregation. Technical progress is typically found to be insignificant implying that economic growth has been driven by increasing returns to scale rather than technical progress. Such findings have important implications for the macroeconomic modeling of economic fluctuations.     

Winner Take All: Competition, Strategy, and the Structure of Returns in the Internet Economy

In this paper, we develop an economic rationale for the following stylized fact: Web-based firms spend profligately on advertising and marketing and usually lose money. Our rationale is based on the winner-take-all structure of high fixed cost, low marginal cost, markets for information goods. This market structure ensures that market participation and investment policy are highly stochastic. Moreover, if a firm chooses to participate in a Web market, it is optimal to act very aggressively through saturation advertising. Although increases in advertising costs reduce the probability of entry, once the decision to enter is made, firm strategies are insensitive to advertising price. Consistent with empirical studies of the profitability of internet firms ( Hand, 2001 ), our model predicts returns that are highly positively skewed, that is, even the firms that survive the competition for market position have a small chance of huge gains combined with a large probability of very modest returns. In dynamic competition, firms weakened by early rounds are less likely to challenge in subsequent rounds. However, when a challenge is attempted, it is always aggressive. In addition, because large expenditures in the first period produce valuable strategic real options in later periods, which are treated as expenses using traditional accounting methodology, the financial valuation of Internet firms may actually be negatively related to performance when using standard accounting measures of profitability that fail to capitalize these strategic real options.     

Herding,trend chasing and market volatility

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuous-time to show that, although trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and to volatility clustering, their impacts are different. The fluctuations of the market price and return and the level of the significant autocorrelations (ACs) of the absolute and squared returns increase with the intensities of herding and trend chasing based on long time horizon. However an increase in switching intensity reduces the return volatility and in particular a low switching intensity reduces the price volatility and increases the level of the significant ACs, but the effect becomes opposite when the switching intensity is high. We also show that market noise plays a more important role than fundamental noise on the power-law behavior of returns.     

Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies

The global financial crisis (2007–2009) saw sharp declines in stock markets around the world, affecting both advanced and emerging markets. In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion originating from the US to advanced and emerging markets during the crisis period. Using a latent factor model, we provide strong evidence of contagion effects in both advanced and emerging equity markets. In the aggregate equity market indices, contagion from the US explains a large portion of the variance in stock returns in both advanced and emerging markets. However, in the financial sector indices we find less evidence of contagion than in the aggregate indices, and this is particularly the case for the advanced markets. The results suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.     

Accumulation, Technical Progress, and Increasing Returns in the Economic Growth of East Asia

Adopting homothetic variable returns to scale functional specifications, this study identifies the returns to scale in the aggregate production functions of four East Asian newly industrialized economies–Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan–and the Group of Five economies based on a maximum likelihood estimation. The study finds evidence of increasing returns in the early developmental stage of the East Asian economies. Separating out the scale contribution from the non-scale factor contributions, the decomposition of the sources of East Asian economic growth differs significantly from the conventional constant returns to scale results, indicating that the role of technical progress is overestimated when constant returns to scale is assumed.     

Oil prices,stock returns,and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States

Employing the diagonal BEKK model as well as the dynamic impulse response functions, this study investigates the time-varying trilateral relationships among real oil prices, exchange rate changes, and stock market returns in China and the U.S. from February 1991 to December 2015. We highlight several key observations: (i) oil prices respond positively and significantly to aggregate demand shocks; (ii) positive oil supply shocks adversely and significantly affect the Chinese stock market; (iii) oil price shocks persistently and significantly impact the trade-weighted US dollar index negatively; (iv) the US and China stock markets correlate positively just as the dollar index and the exchange rate does; (v) a significant parallel inverse relation exists between the US stock market and the dollar and between the China stock market and the exchange rate; and (vi) the Chinese stock market is more volatile and responsive to aggregate demand and oil price shocks than the US stock market in recent years.     

Price stickiness and markup variations in market games

In this paper, we show that the Shapley–Shubik market game model with production naturally generates an equilibration mechanism that can accommodate price stickiness arising from strategic interactions of firms. Unlike New Keynesian models that show similar price stickiness results, the market game model does not require enforcing menu costs or other additional restraints on price adjustment mechanisms in order to generate price stickiness. As such, we suggest that the market game model can provide a good micro-foundation for macroeconomic analysis. We then explicitly show the relationship between a typical firm’s markup of price over marginal cost and its market share.     

Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of price effects after one-day abnormal returns and their evolution in the US stock market, using Dow Jones Index over the period 1890–2018. We utilise several statistical tests and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, R/S analysis (Hurst, 1951), and the trading simulation approach). The results suggest that a strong momentum effect between 1940 and 1980 after a day of positive abnormal returns was present in the US stock market, and it was exploitable for profit. However, after the 1980s this has since disappeared. Overall, price effects after one-day abnormal returns during the analysed period tend to be unstable in terms of their strength and direction (momentum or contrarian effect). Nowadays, the evidence for the price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market is weak. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004).     

Multiple equilibria model with intrafirm bargaining and matching frictions

In this paper, we combine a matching model derived from Pissarides (2000) in the case of large firms with monopolistic competition on the product market and the model of intrafirm bargaining à la Stole and Zwiebel (1996). Moreover, we allow for increasing returns to scale in the aggregate production function leading to multiple equilibria. We study the dynamics of such a framework and propose numerical simulations. We show that labour market regulation can make unlikely the occurrence of the Pareto inferior equilibrium and that product market deregulation can have an effect on employment contrary to the expected result when the economy stands at this equilibrium. We give also some policy recommendations to reach the Pareto superior equilibrium when multiple equilibria exist.     

The cyclical nature of markups in Canadian manufacturing: A production theory approach

In this paper the effects of cost and demand characteristics on the magnitude and cyclical behaviour of markups in Canadian manufacturing are measured within a production theory framework. Price to marginal cost ratios for various manufacturing industries are computed, and the impact art their secular and cyclical trends from changes in capacity utilization, scale economies, variable input prices, import competition, unemployment and other exogenous market and technological determinants are explored using adjusted markup indexes and elasticities. The measured price margins seem weakly procyclical. Further, evaluation of the determinants of these cycles suggests that the procyclical nature of markups is primarily related to exogenous factors affecting costs such as energy price ‘shocks’, and that cost characteristics underlying scale economies provide a countercyclical influence that counteracts the profitability arising from markups.     

对上证指数波动性的实证分析

股票价格频繁波动是股票市场中最明显的特征之一。ARCH类模型可以成功的预测金融资产收益的方差。通过对我国股价指数的统计描述,表明我国金融资产收益率存在自回归条件异方差,并表现出非正态性。并且应用GARCH、TARCH、EGARCH模型理论,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性。