Simple contracts, renegotiation under asymmetric information, and the hold-up problem

In this article it is demonstrated that voluntary bargaining over a collective decision under asymmetric information may well lead to ex post efficiency if the default decision is non-trivial. It is argued that the default decision may be interpreted as a ‘simple’ contract that the parties have written ex ante. This result is used in order to show that simple unconditional contracts which are renegotiated may allow the hold-up problem to be solved, even if the parties’ valuations are private information.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Financial Instability under a Flexible Exchange Rate*

Many governments in developing countries contemplate the possibility of increasing the flexibility of their exchange rates despite having accumulated substantial dollar‐denominated debt. Using a model of corporate dollar debt in which the future exchange rate is uncertain, this paper studies the financial risks that might arise as a consequence of increased exchange rate flexibility. Since a firm may default on its debt either because its dollar income is too low or because investors refuse to roll over its debt, the measure of the overall risk of default should take into account both factors, as well as their interaction. Solving the model for the no‐default rational expectations equilibrium, we find that a small risk of insolvency may bring about a substantial risk of illiquidity.     

The desire for land: Strategic lending with adverse selection

This paper deals with a setting in which borrowers and lenders place different values on an asset that can be used as collateral. Under adverse selection, lenders may rationally choose credit contracts with the object of attracting a relatively risky group of clients, so raising their chances of gaining possession of the asset through default. Contracts of differing attractiveness to borrowers can also coexist in equilibrium. When an ‘inside’ and an ‘outside’ lender compete, the latter placing a lower value on the collateral, and their loanable funds are sufficiently limited, a separating equilibrium may exist in which the insider offers a contract which attracts risky borrowers, whereas the outsider's contract is aimed at a safer group. If loanable funds are ample, the only equilibrium will involve pooling contracts, but the insider may still offer more attractive contracts in an entry game.     

Time to default in the UK mortgage market

This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction.     

Institutional design for improved forest governance through REDD: Lessons from the global environment facility

This contribution focuses on carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation in the context of the UN initiative for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in Developing countries (REDD). The design of REDD is important as it may channel much of the international funding that will potentially be made available for future environmental problem-solving in developing countries. The most important multilateral environmental funding mechanism is the Global Environment Facility (GEF). With its basic structural similarity to the emerging REDD, it provides a good starting point for drawing lessons relevant to the design of REDD. In explaining GEF priorities and performance we discuss the role of key actors as well as the organizational and institutional structure of GEF. These factors do not encourage coalitions for addressing environmental problems in the poorest countries. The institutional setting of REDD in the Convention on Climate Change may further exacerbate this trend, as neither conservation nor socioeconomic concerns like the rights and well-being of indigenous peoples and local communities are addressed. Factors that favour utilizing a similar organization structure include scope for donor trust, for bringing in established competence and a comprehensive approach. REDD must be wary of catering solely to a Northern environmental agenda.     

A bibliometric account of the evolution of EE in the last two decades: Is ecological economics (becoming) a post-normal science?

In ecological economics the debate on formalism and formalization has been addressed in the context of a lively discussion on ecological economics as a ‘post-normal’ (versus ‘normal’) science. Using ecological economics (EE) as a ‘seed’ journal and applying bibliometric techniques to all (2533) the articles published in EE from January 1989 to December 2009, we analyze the evolution of the field of ecological economics aiming to shed light on this debate. We observe the predominance (and increased relevance) of certain research topics: ‘Methodological issues’, ‘Policies, governance and institutions’ and ‘Valuation’. Moreover, ‘Collective action’, ‘Technical change and the environment’ and ‘Values’ stand as emergent themes of research. Finally, we note that ecological economics experienced an ‘empirical turn’ reflected in a shift away from exclusively formalized papers towards exclusively empirical and, to a larger extent, ‘formal and empirical’ ones. The combination of the prominent and emergent topics and the ‘empirical turn’ mirrors the increasing awareness among researchers in the field of the need to address a key specificity of ecological economics — the interdependence of the economic, biophysical and social spheres. On this basis, we argue that at least through the lens of EE, ecological economics has evolved towards a post-normal science.     

Regular Effective Demand Systems (REDS)

Empirical demand analysis is usually conducted on the basis of either ‘regularity’ or ‘flexibility’. This paper takes a middle ground between ‘regularity’ and ‘flexibility’, offering a compromise in the form of a new specification termed ‘REDS’.     

Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model

A major consequence of South Africa's strong economic growth since the democratic dispensation of 1994 is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an energy source has resulted in South Africa's growing dependence on external sources for its domestic crude oil needs. High oil prices, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ are major concerns for the security of South Africa's oil supplies. Accordingly, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks can serve as a vital guide in formulating any energy policy framework(s) aimed at alleviating the impact of such risks. This study utilises portfolio theory and develops an empirical framework to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa's crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. The paper examines the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and provides an objective evaluation of different import adjustment strategies on South Africa's total crude oil import risks. The results show that a policy of having constant monthly imports from each supply region reduces the specific and systematic risks of the oil import portfolio by an average rate of 71% and 2.9% respectively. Significant reduction in specific risks of South Africa's oil imports is achieved if imports from risky regions (mainly the Middle East) can be diversified to relatively less risky regions of Europe and North America.     

Removed preferences

In formalizing a ‘veil of ignorance’ type procedure, this paper considers how an agent?s preferences over a set of alternatives change as he is placed at an increasing ‘distance’ from the consequences of his choices. A definition for such ‘removed preferences’ is presented and its properties studied. As an application, it is demonstrated that present biased agents are ‘essentially’ exponential when distanced from the present, and that rank-dependent expected utility agents are ‘essentially’ expected utility when distanced from risk.     

Local community reaction to the ‘no-take’ policy on fishing in the Tsitsikamma National Park, South Africa

Fishing in the Tsitsikamma National Park has officially been halted since 2001. However, the desire to fish in the Marine Protected Area remains high among the local communities in Tsitsikamma. This has led to illegal fishing practices in the park. Consequently, the reaction of the local communities was measured using semi-structured questionnaires, informal interactions, personal observations, and through a key informant workshop that was organized in the Tsitsikamma National Park. It was found that responses from local communities to fishing within the park were defined by their residence status, ethnicity, gender, income, and educational level. There is a general understanding by local communities that the purpose of the Tsitsikamma National Park is to conserve nature within its boundaries. However, there is a mismatch in the understanding of the term ‘conservation’ between the local communities and conservation officials of the South African National Parks (SANParks). Local communities consider conservation to include sustainable utilization while conservation officials from the practice pursue absolute protection of the marine fisheries resources. The majority of local communities in Tsitsikamma resent this SANParks ‘no-take’ policy on fishing. They would like access to the fisheries resources in the Tsitsikamma National Park for both subsistence and recreational purposes.     

Debt overhang in a business cycle model

We study the macroeconomic implications of the debt overhang distortion on firms׳ investment and labor decisions. We show that the distortion arises when the levels of investment and labor are non-contractible and chosen after the signing of the debt contract. The financial friction manifests itself as investment and labor wedges that move counter-cyclically, increasing during recessions when the risk of default is high. Their dynamics amplify and propagate the effects of shocks to productivity, government spending, volatility, and funding costs. Both the size and the persistence of these effects are quantitatively important.     

Environmental market creation: saviour or oversell?

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the notion of market creation for the conservation of environmental assets. Market creation establishes a market in the external benefit or cost in question (e.g. biodiversity or pollution reduction) and leaves the relevant parties to adjust their behaviour accordingly. While most attention has been paid to market creation through tradable permits and taxes (the polluter-pays), it is less easy to secure a perspective on beneficiary-pays initiatives. Both polluter-pays and beneficiary-pays initiatives are examples of modified Coaseian bargains in which governments intervene in the bargains to lower transactions costs, establish property rights, deal with public goods issues, or act on behalf of disadvantaged groups. This paper reviews four major initiatives in this respect - debt-for-nature swaps, bioprospecting and the Global Environment Facility at the global level, and the Costa Rican Forest Law at the local level. It finds that while there is much to applaud in initiatives in these new markets, serious questions remain about the modest flows of funds associated with such global bargains, and the extent to which they secure environmental improvements relative to the baseline of business-as-usual.JEL Classification: D49, D62, H41, O19, Q57, Q2I am indebted to members of the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit at Oxford University and to David Simpson of Resources for the Future and University College London for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. Any remaining mistakes are entirely my responsibility.     

An efficiency and welfare classification of rationing by waiting in the presence of bribery

Governments often allocate commodities at low prices and on a first-come-first-served basis (rationing by waiting), while bureaucrats who distribute the commodities usually take bribes. A model is developed to classify the efficiency implications of bribery, and socially optimal pricing schemes in rationing by waiting. If the rationed good and individual income spent on other goods (‘other’ income) are ‘complements’, then bribery may enhance allocative efficiency, and a ‘dual pricing’ scheme can augment social welfare. However, if the rationed commodity and ‘other’ income are ‘substitutes’, then bribery may not improve allocative efficiency, and distributing the rationed commodity free is socially optimal.     

A heuristic procedure to identify the most valuable chain of patent priority network

In this study, we provide support for the argument that patents are at their maximum value at those times when they are under litigation. We develop a heuristic procedure to determine the way in which such patents under litigation form a network of patent family members, and then go on to examine the priority patents involved. We subsequently attempt to develop a simple procedure to further identify both the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains within our proposed patent priority network. We suggest that the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains that are created within the above network provide companies with important information which will ultimately provide them with valuable support for the subsequent decision of their patent portfolio strategies.     

NOMINAL SOVEREIGN DEBT

I show that reputation alone can sustain nominal sovereign debt, which is subject to both the risks of default and opportunistic devaluations. Nominal debt combined with a countercyclical exchange rate policy allows more hedging against shocks than real savings if markets are incomplete. Thus, the loss of either repayment or monetary reputation severely affects the government's ability to smooth consumption. The model offers a simple explanation for the Bulow and Rogoff critique, while simultaneously helping explain the issuance of nominal sovereign bonds by emerging economies. The model also helps explain why many governments borrow and save at the same time.     

Single and Double Black–Cox: Two approaches for modelling debt restructuring

In this paper we propose two first-passage-time approaches for pricing debt and equity when the firm is able to restructure its debt as an alternative to liquidation. In contrast to other first passage models that account for reorganization, our approaches allow the firm to restructure its debt by changing its maturity and/or its face value. The first approach developed consists of a first-passage model for reorganization together with a Merton approach for default, while the second approach uses first-passage models for both reorganization and default. We also provide a comparison of the proposed approaches with the Merton (Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29, 449–470.) and Black and Cox (Black, F. and Cox, J.C., 1976, Valuing corporate securities: Some effects of bond indenture provisions. Journal of Finance, 31, 351–367.) models.     

Proposed changes to the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare: An application to Belgium

This paper presents the results of a Belgian case study on the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW). The index is first compiled using the standard methodology applied in other international studies. Owing to the short period in which Belgium's ‘traditional’ ISEW has recently declined, it is not possible to draw any solid conclusion regarding Max-Neef's ‘threshold hypothesis’. After a brief review of the criticism that the ISEW has attracted over the years, the paper then explains and discusses the rationale for omitting the ‘net capital growth’ and ‘change in net international investment position’ items. It is argued that these items do not comply with the theoretical foundation underpinning the ISEW. The paper also puts forward new valuation methods for several items within the index: the escalation factor in the valuation of natural capital depletion is dropped, long-term environmental damage is valued using a stock-based approach and considerably more government expenditures are considered to be non-defensive. The results of the ‘revised’ ISEW show significant improvements in sustainable economic welfare over the entire study period. These findings are not in line with the ‘threshold hypothesis’. Finally, the paper offers some guidelines for communicating about the ISEW — namely that (a) all methodological assumptions should be made explicit and (b) all raw (unadjusted) data used should be included in any final ISEW report so as to enable the reader to make his or her own assessment about the assumptions the researcher has employed.     

Agglomeration and tax competition

Tax competition may be different in ‘new economic geography settings’ compared to standard tax competition models. If the mobile factor is completely agglomerated in one region, it earns an agglomeration rent which can be taxed. Closer integration first results in a ‘race to the top’ in taxes before leading to a ‘race to the bottom’. We reexamine these issues in a model that produces stable equilibria with partial agglomeration in addition to the core-periphery equilibria. A bell-shaped tax differential also arises in our model. Therefore, the ‘race to the top’ result generalises to a framework with partial agglomeration.