The material basis of the global economy: Worldwide patterns of natural resource extraction and their implications for sustainable resource use policies

Material flow accounting and analysis (MFA) has been established as an influential framework for quantifying the use of natural resources by modern societies. So far, however, no reference data for overall scale and trends of global extraction of natural resources and their distribution between different world regions has been available. This paper presents the first comprehensive quantification of the material basis of the global economy, i.e. used domestic extraction in a time series from 1980 to 2002. We analyse time trends for major material groups (fossil fuels, metals, industrial and construction minerals, and biomass) disaggregated into seven world regions. This allows for (a) an illustration of the global economy's physical growth driven by worldwide processes of economic integration over the past decades, and (b) an indication of the worldwide distribution of environmental pressures associated with material extraction. The results show that annual resource consumption of the world economy increased by about one third between 1980 and 2002. This indicates that scale effects due to economic growth more than compensated for other effects, such as the relative increase of the service sectors' contribution to GDP (structural effect) and the use of new production technologies with higher material and energy efficiency (technology effect). The observed growth of natural resource extraction is unevenly distributed over the main material categories, with metals showing the highest growth rate. The regional analysis shows the increasing importance of Asia and Latin America in global resource extraction. On the global level, material intensity, i.e. resource extraction per unit of GDP, decreased by about 25%, indicating relative decoupling of resource extraction from economic growth. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for a more sustainable use of natural resources.     

中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响

本文在测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上,构建了关于产业结构变迁与经济增长的计量经济模型,进而探讨了二者对经济波动的影响。研究结果表明:产业结构合理化和高级化进程均对经济增长的影响有明显的阶段性特征。相对而言,产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系具有较强的稳定性,而高级化则表现出较大的不确定性。产业结构合理化和高级化对经济波动的影响主要表现在不可预测的周期性波动方面,而它们的影响机制却截然不同。产业结构高级化是经济波动的一个重要来源,产业结构合理化则有助于抑制经济波动。总体上,现阶段我国产业结构合理化对经济发展的贡献要远远大于产业结构高级化。本文认为,政府在制定产业结构政策时,应在强调产业结构合理化的同时,积极突破制约产业结构高级化效应的限制条件,有效推进产业结构的高级化,充分发挥产业转型与升级对经济增长的持续推动作用。     

The global business revolution, the cascade effect, and the challenge for firms from developing countries

The global business revolution since the 1980s has witnessedan unprecedented degree of industrial consolidation and concentrationof business power at a global level. Firms with powerful, globallyrecognised technologies and/or brands constitute the ‘systemsintegrators’ at the apex of extended supply chains. Thispaper examines the supply chains in four different sectors:aerospace, telecommunications, automobiles and beverages. Itfinds that these sectors have striking similarities in the wayin which the core systems integrators have stimulated industrialconcentration across the whole supply chain. This ‘cascadeeffect’ has profound implications for firms from developingcountries in catching up at the firm level.     

产业链的全球延展与我国地区产业发展分析

经济全球化进程的深化和拓展,引发世界价值创造体系的整合重构及产业链的跨国延展,并形塑了区域产业链群演进的新特征和新趋势.本文基于此宏观背景,提出我国地区产业发展的策略取向与企业战略的选择组合.前者包括强化苦笑曲线中制造功能的专属优势、逐步抬拉曲线两端的竞争能力和采取另起炉灶的技术创新,后者包括品牌导向战略、产能导向战略和因势借势战略.     

Innovation strategies of industrial groups in the global crisis: Rationalization and new paths

In the on-going context of globalization, the strategy of multinational enterprises combines the aims of constant supply renewal (through technological, but also organizational and commercial innovation) and of production rationalization (reduction of production costs). The financial dimension is narrowly linked to these strategies, as the financial deregulation has generated a strong pressure on enterprises, aimed at increasing the shareholder value. In this paper, we study the impacts of the current financial and economic crisis on the strategy and the management of innovation in big industrial firms. We present the result of an enquiry that has been achieved in France in 2009 and 2010 in companies such as Renault, Thales, General Electric, Lesieur, PSA, Saint-Gobain, Valeo, and ArcelorMittal. We show that firms rationalize their R&D expenses, accentuate their open innovation strategies, develop a strategic use of IPRs and try to implement new innovation paths, oriented toward the exploitation (low cost strategies) and the accumulation (clean technologies) of their knowledge-capital.     

Forecasting material and economic flows in the global production chain for silicon

Material and economic flows in a global production chain are analyzed in order to identify shifts in economic structure relevant to environmental issues. Results suggest that the economic and environmental weight of high-tech manufacturing and specialized material sectors will increase significantly relative to extractive and primary commodity sectors, perhaps reaching a similar environmental scale within a few decades. Though further study is needed, the forecasts suggest that a reprioritization of analysis and policy to address these new industries is in order. These results are based on a case study of the global production chain for high-purity silicon and its use in semiconductors, solar cells and optical fiber from primary materials. Forecasts for future material/economic flows are carried out based on the identification of time scales that reveal stable long-term trends. Assuming constant growth over 7–10 year averages reproduces thirty years of historical growth of three global sectors to around 1–2% accuracy. This suggests the constant growth model can be used to forecast with a relatively high degree of confidence.     

产业协同集聚、技术创新与经济增长——一个中介效应模型

提出生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚通过技术创新促进经济增长的理论机制,并基于2009—2018年中国省级面板数据,利用中介效应模型探究产业协同集聚通过技术创新对经济增长的影响。结果表明,产业协同集聚对经济增长具有直接促进作用,并通过促进技术创新发挥积极部分中介效应,即产业协同集聚可以促进经济增长由传统模式向创新驱动模式转型。基于行业异质性,高端生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚通过区域创新对经济增长的部分中介效应强度高于传统生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Financial Development and Their Impact on the GDP Growth in Low-income Countries

ABSTRACT

This essay empirically studies the effects and causal links between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and economic growth. The sample consists of the main economies of low-income countries and the study covers the period 1990–2015. The results of the estimate show that, under certain specific economic conditions, FDI affects positively the level of long-term economic growth; it thus makes it possible to improve the economic situation of these countries. Using Johansen’s cointegration technique, the results find that FD; FDI and GDP growth are cointegrated, that shows the pursuit of the long-term equilibrium relationship between them. The error correction model confirms the existence of a double causal relationship between FDI and GDP growth, and between FD and FDI and between GDP growth and FD.     

Trajectories in human domination of ecosystems: Human appropriation of net primary production in the Philippines during the 20th century

The “human appropriation of net primary production” (HANPP) has been suggested as a comprehensive indicator to measure impacts of human land use on ecosystems. It accounts for (a) human-induced changes in biological productivity and (b) biomass harvest. This study presents an analysis of aboveground HANPP in the Philippines between 1910 and 2003, a period characterized by massive deforestation and increases in land use intensity and biomass extraction. Results show a steep increase of aboveground HANPP from just below 35% of potential productivity in 1910 to slightly above 60% in 1970 and constant values since then. Large-scale changes in land cover and agricultural practices were the main direct determinants of this trajectory in HANPP. Remarkably, HANPP grew at much slower pace than population did: While the amount of NPP appropriated by humans doubled throughout the period, population increased by a factor ten. Increasing efficiency in terms of biomass extraction per unit of area, relying on ever-increasing inputs, and changes in the nation's physical biomass trade balance were of major importance for this difference in growth rates. In the coming decades, the Philippines will have to face the challenge to meet increases in biomass demand without putting even higher strains on the ecosystems.     

Exit, voice and the evolution of industrial districts: the case of the post-World War II economic development of Prato

In this paper, the Hirschmanian exit–voice approach isapplied to the development of industrial districts. The analysisof the post-World War II evolution of the Prato district helpsto make explicit how the industrial district competitive advantagecan be reproduced over time during periods of regular development.In addition, the exit–voice polarity helps in understandingalso the specific difficulties that industrial districts facein responding to major changes in their external circumstances.In particular, the case examined sheds light on the role thatconscious collective action has in permitting the successfuladjustment of a local system.     

中国GDP增长与CPI:关系、均衡与“十二五”预期目标调控

通货膨胀率和经济增长率之间动态关系的认识是宏观调控的基础,然而,目前在线性和静态的分析框架内未能揭示出通货膨胀和经济增长的复杂动态关系。本文运用1996—2009年GDP增长率、CPI与M2增长率的季度数据建立我国经济增长与通货膨胀的非线性动力系统模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我国最优的季度GDP增长率和CPI,以及零通货膨胀的季度GDP增长率。总体上,我国经济增长与通货膨胀处在次优化的非均衡运行状态,两者呈现出同向性变动的特点。最优调控实验表明,仅调节M2增长率不能完全实现"十二五"调控目标。文章建议"十二五"期间要以调控GDP增长为导向,以从紧货币政策为基础,配合多种调控手段,形成强有力的联合调控机制,以确保GDP增长率和CPI目标的最优实现。     

Reliving the 1950s: the big push, poverty traps, and takeoffs in economic development

The classic narrative of economic development—poor countries are caught in poverty traps, out of which they need a Big Push involving increased investment, leading to a takeoff in per capita income—has been very influential in foreign aid debates since the 1950s. This was the original justification for foreign aid. The narrative lost credibility for a while but has made a big comeback in the new millennium. Once again it is invoked as a rationale for large foreign aid programs. This paper applies very simple tests to the various elements of the narrative. Evidence to support the narrative is scarce. Poverty traps in the sense of zero growth for low-income countries are rejected by the data in the whole period 1950–2001 and for most sub-periods. The poorest quintile also does not have significant negative growth of the relative income ratio to the world’s richest country over 1950–2001, nor is relative growth for the lowest quintile significantly different than other quintiles. The claim that “well-governed poor nations” are caught in poverty traps is rejected by simple regressions that control for both initial income and quality of government (instrumenting for the latter). The idea of the takeoff also does not garner much support in the data. Takeoffs are rare in the data, most plausibly limited to the Asian success stories. Even then, the takeoffs are not associated with aid, investment, or education spending as the standard narrative would imply.     

Total factor productivity growth in Central and Eastern Europe before,during and after the global financial crisis

This article presents growth accounting results for 11 EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe for the years 1996–2016. Its contributions include the estimation of new capital stock series and adjustment for the utilisation of capital stock. Before the crisis, growth in total factor productivity (TFP) was the main contributor to output growth in Slovenia, Hungary and Slovakia, while capital deepening was more important in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Poland. During the global financial crisis the contributions of TFP and capital growth differed markedly across the countries, reflecting the very diverse dynamics of the crisis. After the crisis the contribution of TFP growth has been negligible in all of the sample countries coinciding with generally weak output growth. The results are generally robust to changes in estimation methods and parametrisations, but some assumptions regarding the construction of the capital stock series are critical for the results.     

Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets

The recent US-China trade conflict has caused substantial uncertainty in the global markets. What is the rationale of this conflict? Is the rising of Chinese economy imposing a realistic threat to the US-led post-war international system? Using economic policy uncertainty in each of these two key global economic players as a measure of policy stance, this paper builds a time series model following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to estimate the influence of both the US and China on several key international markets, namely, stock, credit, energy and commodity markets. We find that, although China has become more influential, the US's dominant position still holds in all the markets. The results suggest that concerns regarding China's competition with the US in shaping the global world order are more likely to be driven by political factors rather than economic motives.     

Examining the association between pain severity and quality-of-life,work-productivity loss,and healthcare resource use among European adults diagnosed with pain

Objective: The goal of this research was to quantify the association between pain severity and several health outcomes in a large sample of patients diagnosed with some form of pain.

Methods: Responses from patients who had been diagnosed with some form of pain (n?=?14,459) were drawn from the 2013 EU National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS; n?=?62,000). Respondents reported their subjective pain severity in the past week on a numerical rating scale (0–10) as well as the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36), Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire (WPAI), and healthcare resource utilization in the past 6 months (healthcare professional (HCP) visits, emergency room (ER) visits, and hospitalizations). Associations between pain severity and health outcomes were examined via a series of regression models controlling for a set of demographic and health-related covariates.

Results: After controlling for demographics and comorbidities, pain severity in the past week was shown to be significantly negatively associated with Health Utilities (b = ?0.022, p?b?=?0.18, p?b?=?0.13, p?b?=?0.14, p?b?=?0.08, p?Limitations: This study was a self-report cross-sectional study which may have biased the results and does not allow for causal inferences to be made. Finally, the regression models run were limited to available covariates and, hence, some potentially important covariates may not have been included in these models.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that reducing pain severity could result in an increase in patients’ quality-of-life and work productivity, and a decrease in healthcare resource use. The equations, linking pain and outcomes, were presented in an accessible format so they could be readily applied in healthcare decision-making.     

社会平等、中性政府与中国经济增长

本文从社会平等的角度给出了一个对中国经济增长的政治经济学解释。本文的理论模型表明,平等的社会结构使得政府选择成为一个中性政府,即在社会群体之间没有特定长期偏好的政府,这样的政府更可能把资源分配给生产力比较高的社会群体,从而促进经济增长。得益于中国革命所带来的平等的社会结构,以及改革开放初期党的工作重点向经济建设的转移,中国政府在过去三十多年是一个中性政府,采纳了有利于经济长期发展的政策。但同时,政府把有限的资源分配给生产力较高的群体或地区,必然会扩大收入差距。     

Time path in innovation, imitation, and growth: the case of the motorcycle industry in postwar Japan

This study attempts to explore how an industry evolves over time based on a case study of the motorcycle industry in Japan from 1948 to 1964. Using individual firm data, we estimate the determinants of technology improvement and firm growth separately for different development phases, after controlling for the probability of firm survival. We find that the industrys rapid growth in the early phase can be explained by massive entry and the imitation of simple technologies, whereas sustained growth in later phases can be explained by innovations and subsequent imitations, as well as the exit of inefficient firms.JEL Classification: O14, L10, L62, N65 Correspondence to: Tetsushi SonobeWe are grateful to Kotaro Horiuchi, Shunji Tanaka, Katsuaki Nishino, Michael Kevane, Uwe Cantner, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

基于空间计量视角下的碳排放与经济增长分析与对策--以中国地级市为研究对象

基于空间计量经济学为方法,实证分析中国31个省域2005—2012年经济增长与碳排放的关系。结果表明：在空间分布上中国31个省域的碳排放呈现出正自相关性和空间集聚效应,表现出环渤海地区、长三角地区等;经济增长与碳排放表现出正相关系,高碳排放、低碳排放分别处于经济发达的沿海地区、经济落后的内陆地区,表现出经济增长对碳排放的依赖性强,中国短时间内实现低碳经济较为困难。     

管理体制与中国开发区经济发展效率增长——基于Malmquist指数和GMM的实证分析

文章采用Malmquist生产率指数对2001-2008年30个国家级经济技术开发区的经济发展效率增长进行了测算,并采用广义矩估计对其影响因素进行了实证分析,重点考察了不同管理体制对开发区效率增长影响的差异。结果显示:开发区的经济发展效率整体上处于逐渐改善的过程,东部地区开发区的效率改善速度比较稳定,而西部地区开发区因缺少持续促进因素而效率变化波动很大;政区合一型管理体制对开发区经济发展效率的改善表现出积极影响,对外贸易、投资率、产业结构、政府干预以及科技含量等因素均有利于开发区效率的提高,政府规模的扩大则对其效率增长产生了负向效应;科技含量和政府规模对两类开发区的效率增长分别具有显著的积极影响和负向效应,对外贸易对政区合一型开发区的效率增长具有显著的正向影响而对管委会型开发区的影响并不显著。     

能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与APEC地区经济增长——基于SBM-Undesirable和Meta-frontier模型的实证研究

针对以往效率测算方法存在的缺陷以及跨国研究中制度的异质性问题,本文采用SBM-Undesirable模型和Meta-frontier生产函数这一综合分析框架,在能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的双重约束条件下,测算了APEC地区17个成员1980-2007年期间的经济增长效率,并对双重约束下经济增长效率的影响因素进行了计量检验。研究发现,除了发展中国家群组之外,发达国家群组和东亚新兴经济体群组中有部分国家(和地区)在个别年份位于潜在最佳生产技术的共同边界上;各群组的共同技术效率(MTE)和共同技术比率(MTR)平均值从高到低的排序均依次为发达国家、东亚新兴经济体和发展中国家;人均GDP、工业化水平、人口密度、劳均资本以及对外开放程度等因素对双重约束下APEC地区共同技术效率具有显著影响,但对三大群组技术效率的影响方向及程度则呈现出不尽相同的结果。