基于RIMS Ⅱ的国防支出区域经济效应分析——以美国圣迭戈县为例

国防支出对区域经济影响的主要分析工具之一是投入产出分析技术。本文在RIMS Ⅱ(Regional Input-Output Mod-eling System,区域投入产出模型化系统)基础上,讨论了区域投入产出分析的主要乘数模型:产出乘数、就业乘数和收入乘数。将乘数模型应用于国防支出的区域经济效应研究,我们发现,国防支出通过驻地军事基地和装备采购支出对区域经济发展的影响是显著的。由于国防支出由中央政府支付,经济区域内国防支出的流入意味着为区域经济注入了必要的生产发展资金,推动经济区域内循环往复的生产、消费、税收和就业。同时,不同类型的国防支出流入在区域经济内发挥的经济效应是不同的。以生产武器装备,承接国防合同为主而流入大量国防采购资金、国防R&D资金的地区,显然要比经济区内单纯驻有军事基地的地区有更高的乘数效应,国防支出对区域经济的产出、收入和就业的经济效应更为明显。     

用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响

利用2002年上海市统计年鉴和投入产出表(1997年度.价值型)数据,用投入产出模型分析旅游对经济产出和收入的直接和乘数影响,计算出旅游产出乘数为2.8876,旅游收入乘数为0.6497,旅游消费引起产出增长的乘数效应主要集中在企业服务业、化学工业、商业、饮食业、旅客运输业等行业,然后将旅游乘数与已有研究的香港、新家坡、秦皇岛、天津市旅游乘数进行了比较,最后讨论了投入产出法和卫星帐户法在分析旅游经济影响方面的优缺点。     

新疆旅游业投入产出分析

本文以新疆2002年和2007年投入产出表为依据,从直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数、感应度系数和影响力系数以及投入产出乘数效应这三方面对新疆旅游业进行投入产出分析后发现,新疆旅游业对新疆经济的推动作用有限,旅游业自身的发展依赖于交通运输业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业及交通运输设备业的发展,且旅游业的发展并未带来交通运输业的显著发展。     

Hybrid input-output analysis of wastewater treatment and environmental impacts: A case study for the Tokyo Metropolis

This paper proposes a new hybrid input-output model designed to analyze both the generation and treatment of wastewater. This model, named wastewater treatment input-output model (WWIO), can be regarded as an extension of the waste input-output model (WIO) (Nakamura, S. and Kondo, Y., 2002. Input-output analysis of waste management. Journal of Industry Ecology, 6(1): 39-63.). As an application, I compiled the Tokyo Metropolitan WWIO table for 2000, which comprises 482 economic sectors, 11 wastewater treatment sectors, 12 types of wastewater-related waste and 6 types of environmental load. The model was applied to different scenarios to compare alternative wastewater treatment systems. The results indicate that replacing the simple treatment with the high-class treatment improves the quality of treated water while increasing CO₂-equivalent emissions. Meanwhile, when the dewatered sludge is incinerated instead of landfilling, both CO₂-equivalent emissions and landfill volume decrease.     

Ricardian equivalence and the intertemporal Keynesian multiplier

We show that Keynesian multiplier effects can be obtained in dynamic optimizing models if one combines both price rigidities and a “non-Ricardian” framework where, due for example to the birth of new agents, Ricardian equivalence does not hold.     

An additional explanation for the variable Keynesian multiplier: The role of the propensity to import

This article analyzes the concept of the Keynesian multiplier from a new perspective. Several recent studies have shown that the fiscal multiplier is endogenous to the level of economic activity, increasing during recessions and decreasing during the boom. Here, we provide some evidence, explaining this variability over the business cycle, based on the overreaction of aggregate imports. Then, we apply the concept of endogenous propensity to import, varying with capacity utilization, to a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution. We perform some simple simulations showing that the Keynesian multiplier increases during a recession, which logically does not advocate a reduction in public spending when the economy is in crisis.     

The Effects Of New Technologies On Employment

This paper is a contribution to the analysis of the relationship between technical change, economic development and employment. It forms part of a larger study of technical change and employment in Germany, encompassing a macroeconomic model of income circulation, a disaggregated econometric model of the sectoral differences of the effects of new technologies, and an input-output analysis of the direct and indirect effects of technological change. The present paper concentrates on examining the relationships between users and producers, the intersectoral technology flow matrix, and its links with the disaggregated demand model for analysing the influence of different technology variables on labour demand.     

The bargaining set of a large game

We study the equivalence between the Mas-Colell bargaining set and the core in the general context of TU games with a measurable space of players. In the first part of the paper, we study the problem without imposing any restriction on the class of games we consider. In the second part, we first introduce a new class of exact games, which we call thin games. For these games, we show not only that the Mas-Colell bargaining set is equal to the core, but also that it is the unique stable set in the sense of von Neumann and Morgenstern. We then study the relation between thin games, exact non-atomic market games and non-atomic convex games. Finally, by further developing “thinness” related ideas, we prove new equivalence results for a class of non-exact market games as well as a class of non-exact, non-market games.     

Regional job multipliers

Job multipliers are often cited as justification for economic development incentives in particular industries. In this article, we use Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data for counties in the State of Ohio to estimate the tradable sector’s job multiplier. We find that for each additional job in the tradable sector over a 10-year period, there are 1.6 jobs created in the nontradable sector. This multiplier estimate is lower for shorter periods of 1 year and 3 years. For the manufacturing sector specifically, we find the multiplier effect to be 1.2 jobs in the nontradable sector over a 10-year period. We also provide evidence that the multiplier varies over time. During the recessionary period of 2008 and 2009, the multiplier appears lower compared to the time period preceding and proceeding the recession.     

Applying input-output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints

Application of input-output analysis to ecological footprints (EFs) is shifting from an ex-post static calculation toward an ex-ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of EF analysis. This change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination: (1) what is measured by Leontief inverses or extended environmental Leontief inverses, and (2) whether a sector's land multiplier (or compositions of land multiplier) can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector's output to final demand on the required area(s) of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production. The underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector's output and its intermediate inputs (input-output coefficients)—a critical assumption made by W. Leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input-output model—can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector's output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed (land-output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient). By reviewing the literature on input-output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation, this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the EF scenario analysis.To apply the input-output model to EF scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation, this study suggests a two-stage EF calculation procedure. In the first stage, the input-output application estimates only the required raw materials (or generated pollutants) for meeting a given consumption pattern, which is the objective of environmental input-output analysis; in the second stage, the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land/water area, and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

The evolution of socio-economic modeling in Canada

For the past 15 years the authors have been associated with a research program concerned with the development of structural economic models that had their origins in the input-output models of Leontief. This program has produced a set of conceptual tools embracing a new approach to socio-economic modeling which we term the “design approach.” This approach draws on general systems theory and control theory in application to large social systems. Also emerging from this program as its test prototype is a particular set of models designed for society wide resource analysis and a set of software tools within which design approach models can be designed, implemented, and operated. The design approach provides a new method of assessing technologies in regard to their overall socio-economic resource impact. The objective of this paper is to describe the unique institutional setting and the particular issues which provided the setting and the motivation for embarking on a large scale modeling program. The paper is organized chronologically, describing first of all the evolution of the program approach, the software tools, the Socio-Economic Resource Framework (SERF), which is the prototype set of models that have been implemented, and some results obtained from it.     

Scale and structure in economic modelling

In this paper an attempt is made to put together, within the same model, the supply and the demand side of the economic process. This is done by integrating the progress attained in two fields which have traditionally been considered separate: the input-output approach and the macroeconometric final demand approach. The composition of each traditional macroeconomic variable, determined within the model, is analysed into the functional headings which are peculiar for each variable (family budgets headings for personal consumption expenditures, investing sectors for investments, I-O sectors for output and so on). We can then identify for each variable a scale component - absolute level of the aggregated variable - and a structure component - its inner composition - which are mutually consistent. Two types of applications of the same model are then compared: simulation, where the parametric set is used to obtain the dynamic path of a specific scenario; and integrated impact multiplier analysis where scale and structure effects are evaluated with reference to all the potential behaviour of the system.     

Pollution macro-economic trade-off at regional level (An input-output analysis of Moreton Region)

The conflict between economic development and growth and environmental quality at a regional level has been analysed using input-output techniques. The trade-offs between macro-economic goals such as output expansion, income growth, employment creation on the one hand, and pollution abatement on the other, have been quantified using multiplier analysis. These trade-offs provide valuable information for policy and planning purposes. The normative implications of the empirical results of the study, the conceptual limitations and the scope for refinement are also discussed.     

Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece

This study explores the impact of government expenditure multipliers on economic growth utilising an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. We provide evidence on the short‐term dynamics as well as the long‐run expenditure multiplier effects on economic growth for the Greek economy over the period 1960–2014. We find that the size of the multiplier does not differ substantially over the phases of the business cycle. Our results also indicate that irrespective of the scale of inflation, government expenditure positively affects economic growth, whilst inconclusive evidence is obtained in the case of exceptionally low interest rates.     

旅游产业与区域经济增长研究

旅游产业作为一个新兴产业,其发展在我国已形成一定的规模,对国民经济增长的影响也越来越大。运用Cobb-Douglas生产函数和空间计量模型,实证研究了中部地区旅游业发展与经济增长的关系。基本的结论是:从固定效应模型的分析来看,旅游产业不仅能通过自身直接的收入效应带动经济增长,而且更为主要的是其具有的产业关联性,通过乘数效应扩大经济增长效应,从而有力地推动了拥有丰富旅游资源的六省经济增长。     

Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda

In this article, the goal is to offer a new research agenda for evolutionary macroeconomics. The article commences with a broad review of the main ideas in the history of thought concerning the determinants of economic growth and an introduction to the evolutionary perspective. This is followed by a selective review of recent evolutionary approaches to macroeconomics. These approaches are found to be somewhat disconnected. It is argued that the ‘micro-meso-macro’ approach to economic evolution is capable of resolving this problem by offering an analytical framework in which macroeconomics can be built upon ‘meso-foundations’, not micro-foundations, as asserted in the mainstream. It is also stressed that the economic system and its components are complex adaptive systems and that this complexity must not be assumed away through the imposition of simplistic assumptions made for analytical convenience. It is explained that complex economic systems are, at base, energetic in character but differ from biological complex systems in the way that they collect, store and apply knowledge. It is argued that a focus upon stocks and flows of energy and knowledge in complex economic systems can yield an appropriate analytical framework for macroeconomics. It is explained how such a framework can be connected with key insights of both Schumpeter and Keynes that have been eliminated in modern macroeconomics. A macroeconomic framework that cannot be operationalized empirically is of limited usefulness so, in the last part of the article, an appropriate methodology for evolutionary macroeconomics is discussed.     

经济增长、经济政策与公司业绩关系的实证研究

本文以1995年至2004年上市公司为样本,考察了经济增长、经济政策与公司业绩之间的关系。通过构筑IS-LM模型,本文测算了我国的各项财政政策与货币政策乘数,以量化我国宏观经济政策的变化,并在此基础上,研究了经济增长、经济政策对公司会计业绩和股票报酬的影响,发现经济政策显著影响公司会计业绩与股票报酬,但不同的经济政策对会计业绩和股票报酬的影响不尽相同;另外,我们还发现,在控制了经济政策因素后,经济增长并没有和公司业绩相背离。本文的发现为诠释我国股市是否是宏观经济的"晴雨表"提供了一个新的研究视角。     

A comparison of technology in centrally-planned and market-type economies

The present paper considers the role of technical progress in centrally-planned and market-type economies using a case study approach of Czechoslovakia and Austria. The paper goes beyond the usual treatment of productivities of prime factors in that the demand for intermediate inputs is specifically considered. The empirical analysis is based on the input-output approach which consists of testing the ‘fundamental’ properties of the input-output tables including triangularity, physical homogeneity and bloc decomposability. The comparisons include new sensitivity tests of ‘critical’ values and new methods of matrix triangulation. It is found that the ‘fundamental’ structures of both Czechoslovakia and Austria were triangular in form and formed a hierarchical arrangement. The findings suggest that the forces generating ‘fundamental’ properties of production structure in developed market economies can be also found in centrally-planned economies.     

Structures of foreign trade and income distribution: The case of Mexico

Using Mexico's input-output tables and household survey data, this paper examines various trade strategies and their relationship to commodity production with a view to assesing their effect on the distribution of income. The model incorporates income-induced multiplier effects, taking into account the full range of input import-substitution possibilities. The results show that the differences in the impact on income, particularly, of the lower incomes, are most marked in the tensions between exportable and import-competing activities. On the whole, production per unit of output in the non-tradable sector produces as much factor income as that in the export sector. Expansion of exportable activities marginally improves the economic position of the poor in relation to other income groups, but only when direct effects are taken into account. If, however, domestic production meets the needs of intermediate imports, then the distribution of income remains unaffected by alternative trade strategies.