Applying physical input–output analysis to estimate land appropriation (ecological footprints) of international trade activities

In the last few years some studies have been presented, which link land use accounting and input–output analysis (based on monetary input–output tables (MIOTs)) for the calculation of direct and indirect land appropriation of production and consumption activities. The compilation of the first comprehensive physical input–output tables (PIOTs) for some western European countries in the 1990s opened new possibilities for linking physical accounting and input–output analysis. Using a physical multiplier for this kind of calculation is more appropriate, as the most land intensive sectors are also the sectors with the highest amounts of material flows. Physical input–output analysis illustrates land appropriation in relation to material flows of each of the sectors, which is more appropriate from the point of view of environmental pressures than land appropriation in relation to monetary flows of a MIOT. Physical input–output analysis has so far not been applied for any land-related studies. Based on a physical input–output model of the EU-15, physical input–output analysis is applied in this paper, in order to calculate direct and indirect land requirements for the production of exports from EU-15 to the rest of the world.     

A new approach to modeling waste in physical input-output analysis

It is important to treat waste properly in physical input-output analysis and a series of publications discussed this topic in this journal recently. In this paper, we propose a new approach to deal with physical input-output table (PIOT) measured in a single mass unit, by which the structure of PIOT need not be changed. The new approach yields consistent and reasonable results. It not only is simpler than the existing approaches but also can reflect the physical reality of economic systems. We first discuss and clarify the concept of different kinds of inputs and outputs of economic systems. We then present the details of the new approach. During the process we define a new multiplier, which builds a bridge between the total input and the final demand in PIOT, just like the traditional Leontief inverse in MIOT. We select the three-sector PIOT for Germany 1990 as a case study to show the validity of the new approach. Finally, we prove the equivalence between the new approach, Suh's approach and Dietzenbacher's approach and the equivalence of non-waste part and waste part multiplier of the new approach and Dietzenbacher's approach.     

An input-output approach to forecasting gross domestic output and employment intensities by sectors

The purpose of this paper is to integrate two commonly known input-output models of Leontief and Stone for employment analysis. Although assumptions of Leontief model are somewhat different from Stone's model, the empirical analysis can be conducted ignoring the difference between competitive and noncompetitive imports in the initial stage. The Leontief model is used to make predictions of gross domestic output on the basis of predicted imports and final demand by sectors. The predicted output is used to derive employment by sectors for a target year and this in turn is used in Stone's input-output framework for the analysis of total labour intensity by sectors. The approach on the estimates of labour intensity by sectors is illustrated using Japan's input-output data.     

Environmental Input-Output Models for Life-Cycle Analysis

The Leontief input-output model has beenapplied for macro environmental analysis since1970, and life cycle analysis has been used inindustrial design over the last decade. Thispaper presents two extended environmentalinput-output models for life cycle analysis inpollutant abatement and towards resourcerecycling. It is demonstrated that thesuggested models are systematic tools that canbe used for integrated environmental analysisand planning.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 2: Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade

This paper offers a detailed review of recently described single- and multi-region input-output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services. It is the second part of a two-part contribution. In Part 1 [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T. and Barrett, J. in press. Examining the Global Environmental Impact of Regional Consumption Activities — Part 1: A Technical Note on Combining Input-Output and Ecological Footprint Analysis; Ecological Economics.] we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of Ecological Footprints.A large number of such environment-economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi-region, multi-sector input-output framework. This has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability. We identify six major models that employ multi-sector, multi-region input-output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade. Results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe, land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi-region, multi-sector and multi-directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation. Only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade, such as the Ecological Footprint, can be derived.     

Nonlinear Pricing, Redistribution, and Optimal Tax Policy

This paper examines the role of nonlinear pricing by public (or regulated) utilities as a redistributive mechanism in presence of an optimal nonlinear income tax. It models an economy with many types of persons who differ in two unobservable characteristics (earning abilities and tastes). We show that nonlinear pricing does have a redistributive role; it is not a substitute for an ill-designed tax policy. We prove, assuming separable preferences, that a person whose valuation of the public sector output is smaller than the average valuation of the population (all measured at the same consumption bundle) must face a marginal price for the good above its marginal cost. Further assuming that tastes and earning abilities are perfectly correlated, we prove that everyone must face a marginal price for the public sector's output which strictly exceeds its marginal cost if correlation is positive. These properties provide an economic rationale for the provision of "support for low-income consumers" as mandated by the universal service and similar regulatory policies. Finally, we show that with correlated characteristics, implementation can be achieved through two separate functions: a pricing function that depends only on the public sector output and a tax function that depends only on income.     

Ex-ante evaluation of a targeted job program: Hypothetical integration in a social accounting matrix of South Africa

To analyze policy impacts of a targeted employment program calls for a new approach of estimation. This study proposes a simple modification to a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in order to analyze the multiplier effects of a new sector. A different input composition, or technology, of the sector with targeted job provision makes a conventional analysis of final-demand injections on existing sectors invalid. Instead of a costly full-scale rebalancing, we apply the modification—so-called hypothetical integration—into a SAM to assess a proposed expansion of social care sector within the Expanded Public Works Program in South Africa.     

The economic effects of health care systems on national economies: an input-output analysis of Slovenia

This paper estimates the size of the economic impact generated by the Slovenian health care sector on the national economy in the 2009–2014 period. The study separately calculates output, income, employment, value-added and import multipliers for the Slovenian health care sector based on input-output analysis covering 49 sectors. Initially, values of simple output multipliers for all years are estimated. When the re-circulation of final demand through households is added to the direct and indirect economic effects, the values of total output multipliers considerably exceeds 2. The results suggest that an additional million EUR of final demand in the health care sector will, based on different scenarios, increase the total employment by 20 to 30 units. Moreover, the type II employment multipliers imply that under the best-case scenario one employee in the health care sector creates an additional 0.7 unit of employment in remaining structures of the observed economy. Stability evaluation of the derived multipliers suggests that the domestic health care sector may reduce volatilities in production, income and employment and consequently act as an important shock absorber in the economy.     

用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响

利用2002年上海市统计年鉴和投入产出表(1997年度.价值型)数据,用投入产出模型分析旅游对经济产出和收入的直接和乘数影响,计算出旅游产出乘数为2.8876,旅游收入乘数为0.6497,旅游消费引起产出增长的乘数效应主要集中在企业服务业、化学工业、商业、饮食业、旅客运输业等行业,然后将旅游乘数与已有研究的香港、新家坡、秦皇岛、天津市旅游乘数进行了比较,最后讨论了投入产出法和卫星帐户法在分析旅游经济影响方面的优缺点。     

我国服务业增加值的核算问题

本文集中讨论我国服务业增加值估算中存在的问题。由于历史原因和服务业本身的一些特点 ,我国现价服务业增加值被严重地低估了 ,服务业增长率计算也可能存在着偏差。对服务业增加值的以往研究均受到基础数据的限制而未能根本地解决这些问题。服务业统计核算的缺陷严重地阻碍着经济分析和经济决策。因此 ,改善我国服务业统计核算是当务之急。从长远的角度来说 ,服务业增加值核算的改善在很大程度上取决于统计调查的完善。但是 ,在现有的条件下 ,仍然有很大的改善余地。     

Pollution macro-economic trade-off at regional level (An input-output analysis of Moreton Region)

The conflict between economic development and growth and environmental quality at a regional level has been analysed using input-output techniques. The trade-offs between macro-economic goals such as output expansion, income growth, employment creation on the one hand, and pollution abatement on the other, have been quantified using multiplier analysis. These trade-offs provide valuable information for policy and planning purposes. The normative implications of the empirical results of the study, the conceptual limitations and the scope for refinement are also discussed.     

结构式乘数视角下产业投资对经济的影响

为考察产业投资对各产业部门和经济总体的乘数作用,利用里昂惕夫静态投入产出模型和汉森-萨缪尔森模型,在考虑了投资、国民收入和消费之间的相互作用以及产业投资与投资形成额关系的基础上,构建了结构式投资乘数模型,并由此测算了我国17个部门产业投资对各产业部门增加值和国内生产总值的影响.研究结果表明投资取向与经济增长速度无关,但会影响产业结构的变动,其中建筑业、机械设备制造业、批发零售贸易以及住宿和餐饮业的发展易受投资的影响,而在纺织、缝纫及皮革制造业、食品制造业、其他服务业等产业部门的发展中投资的作用则十分有限,这些产业部门的发展要靠消费来拉动.     

Assessing the Employment Impacts of Environmental and Natural Resource Policy

This paper provides an introductory guide for environmental andresource economists to methods of assessing the impact of environmentaland natural resource policy on employment. It examines five basicapproaches to evaluating the effect of a policy action on employment:1) supply and demand analysis of the affected sector; 2) partialequilibrium analysis of multiple markets; 3) fixed-price, generalequilibrium simulations (input-output (I-O) and social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier models); 4) non-linear, general equilibriumsimulations (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models); and 5) econometric estimation of the adjustment process, particularly timeseries analysis. The basic modeling structure and data requirementsfor each of these approaches are described. Simple examples of theirapplication to evaluation of environmental and natural resourcepolicy are developed and the relative merits and applicability of each are discussed.     

基于能值分析的土地可持续利用态势研究

本文应用能值分析的理论和方法，构建了基于能值的标定土地可持续利用态势的若干指数，如土地利用总能值投入产出比，土地利用工业能能值投入产出比，土地利用环境负载指数以及土地可持续利用指数。作为案例研究，作者利用上述指数对1978－1999年中车农业土地的可持续性进行判定。结果表明，尽管粮食产量或农业产值等经济指标为土地利用总能值投入产出比和工业能能值投入产出指数前期剧烈下降，后期趋于平缓；土地利用环境负载指数持续上升的态势说明，中国农用土地的环境压力逐渐增大，土地可持续利用指数在前期呈现上升趋势，至1985的达到最高，此后呈持续下降态势，近年趋于稳定。这表明，由过度使用化石能量引起的环境负面效应对农用土地生态系统的压力不断增大，若不遏制这种发展势头，中国农用土地生态系统的可持续性将得不到延存。     

对投入产出模型性质的理论思考#br#

投入产出方法作为一种经验研究方法被大量用于实际经济问题的分析，但是模型假定与方法性质的理解却是合理使用投入产出方法的前提。投入产出模型的突出特点表现为以生产为中心、结构性和方法的系统性。投入产出需求拉动的数量模型和成本推动的价格模型构成了其核心分析框架，两类模型都是以生产为中心；数量模型和价格模型所体现的产业间相互影响不仅包括直接联系，也包括间接联系，从而具有结构性特征。从系统性来看，这一分析框架以生产为核心形成模型的内生边界，并可以进一步对内生边界和概念进行调整；此外，通过引入分配系数建立供给驱动模型，以及与优化模型相结合扩展为广义投入产出模型体系，构成系统性的分析框架。为此，本文从投入产出模型的基本性质出发，对投入产出方法结构性的内涵、模型系统内生边界的划分和调整、需求拉动和供给推动模型体系的对称性，以及广义投入产出体系的对偶性等若干基本问题展开充分讨论，由此提出笔者对投入产出方法性质的思考。     

PRICE ANALYSIS AND A SYSTEM OF PRICE STATISTICS

For some considerable time the interest in price statistics has mainly been focused on their use as "intermediate goods". The requirements of a system of price index numbers which have to be established in this connection are largely in the field of statistical coordination (integration of statistics on quantities, values and prices).
Recently the inflation problem has given rise to an increased interest in price statistics as "final goods". A meaningful analysis of inflation will devote attention to the relation between input prices and output prices. In this article several versions of an analysis of prices of final demand categories based on an ordinary Leontief input-output scheme are presented and the needs for price statistics are discussed. In fact a self-contained system of price statistics emerges from the price analysis.
There is a difference in the nature of the price index numbers required in compiling input-output tables in constant prices (Paasche) and that in the case of price analysis (Laspeyres). However the need for price observation runs largely parallel because in both cases the same detailed information on price developments will probably be used.
Price analysis gives the possibility of a step-by-step approach in building up a system of price index numbers.     

THE SEERS MODIFIED INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE: SOME PROJECTION TECHNIQUES

Dudley Seers and his colleagues in working with various less developed economies have proposed a modified version of an input-output table for making projections and tests of consistency in planning. The table includes only the important inter-sectoral flows. By making a simplifying assumption with regard to the non-included inter-sectoral flows, an algebraic formulation of the modified input-output table is possible. The resulting matrix of input-output coefficients and final demands can be transformed into a Leontief input-output matrix which is block triangular and composed of two-blocks, one of which is diagonal. Given a set of final demands it is very easy to solve for the total output of each of the sectors. The amount of computation involved is directly related to the number of intersectoral flows included in the original modified input-output table.     

OPTIMAL TRANSITION DYNAMICS IN THE LEONTIEF TWO‐SECTOR GROWTH MODEL WITH DURABLE CAPITAL: THE CASE OF CAPITAL INTENSIVE CONSUMPTION GOODS*

We present results on undiscounted optimal policies in the Leontief two‐sector growth model with durable capital. Unlike the results with a labour intensive consumption goods sector, we show that a monotonic optimal programme is only one special case out of many richer possibilities of transition dynamics. Depending on the initial capital stock, and a key parameter ζ that could be interpreted as a marginal rate of transformation of capital between today and tomorrow, an optimal programme may converge to a period‐two cycle; and even when it converges to the golden rule stock, it can do so (damped) cyclically or with a “jump”.     

Effects of changes in outputs and in prices on the economic system: an input–output analysis using the spectral theory of nonnegative matrices

The (physical) output adjustment model and the price adjustment model are presented. By the two models we quantitatively analyze the influences of alterations of one sectoral (physical) gross output and of one sectoral price on another sectoral (physical) gross output and on another sectoral price, respectively. Hence, a basic nature of the Ghosh inverse and a fundamental character of the monetary Leontief inverse are obtained. The proposition that a matrix of intermediate output (input) coefficients alters if the vector of output (price) adjustment coefficients is nontrivial holds, if and only if this matrix is C-irreducible. It is impossible that (i) the adaptation of output system causes all sectoral final output rates (or input multipliers) either to rise or to fall collectively, or (ii) an adjustment of price system causes all sectoral value-added rates (or output multipliers) either to increase or to decrease jointly. However, maybe (i) a change of output system enables some sectoral final output rates (or input multipliers) to rise (fall) and all others to be constant, and (ii) an alteration of price system enables some sectoral value-added rates (or output multipliers) to increase (decrease) and all others to be fixed, whose necessary and sufficient condition is that the matrix of intermediate output (or input) coefficients has at least one non-final (or non-initial) class. The proposition that the vector of final output rates (or input multipliers) changes if the vector of output adjustment coefficients is nontrivial is true, if and only if the matrix of intermediate output coefficients has only one final class. The proposition that the vector of value-added rates (or output multipliers) alters if the vector of price adjustment coefficients is nontrivial holds, if and only if the matrix of intermediate input coefficients has only one initial class. The necessary and sufficient conditions and the matching economic explanations for possibility and uniqueness of the economic adjustment that enables (i) all sectors to have a uniform final output rate (or input multiplier), and (ii) all sectors to have the same value-added rate (or output multiplier) are respectively given. I would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Environmental efficiency and labour productivity: Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA

In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between ‘environmental efficiency’ (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991-2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results.On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity — a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity — which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a ‘complementary’ relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments.