A new approach to modeling waste in physical input-output analysis

It is important to treat waste properly in physical input-output analysis and a series of publications discussed this topic in this journal recently. In this paper, we propose a new approach to deal with physical input-output table (PIOT) measured in a single mass unit, by which the structure of PIOT need not be changed. The new approach yields consistent and reasonable results. It not only is simpler than the existing approaches but also can reflect the physical reality of economic systems. We first discuss and clarify the concept of different kinds of inputs and outputs of economic systems. We then present the details of the new approach. During the process we define a new multiplier, which builds a bridge between the total input and the final demand in PIOT, just like the traditional Leontief inverse in MIOT. We select the three-sector PIOT for Germany 1990 as a case study to show the validity of the new approach. Finally, we prove the equivalence between the new approach, Suh's approach and Dietzenbacher's approach and the equivalence of non-waste part and waste part multiplier of the new approach and Dietzenbacher's approach.     

Qualitative input-output analysis and structural information

The authors first introduce a slightly modified version of the quantitative theory of pull effects. After a short presentation of the basic ideas of qualitative input-output analysis with the aid of matrices, the qualitative goals of ‘completeness’ and ‘velocity’ are defined. The article ends with an investigation of the compatibility of these qualitative goals with the usual quantitative economic goals.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis

In recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and/or pollution generation embodied in trade flows, including contributions that combine input-output techniques and Ecological Footprint analysis. In this two-part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and/or pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows (Part 1) and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments (Part 2). It is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input-output approach to capture international trade flows. However, in practice, problems of data availability and compatibility, and of computability of extended input-output matrices, mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied, but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit. What appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which Ecological Footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input-output accounting analysis. This allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short-cut methods in a transparent way. The objective of this paper is to provide such an account.     

From ecological footprint to ecological rent: An economic indicator for resource constraints

This paper takes as a starting point a combination of an input-output model with a national Ecological Footprint account for Germany in the spirit of Wiedmann et al. [Wiedmann, T., Minx, J., Barrett, J., Wackernagel, M., 2006. Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input-output analysis. Ecological Economics. 56, 28-48]. Footprint as well as Biocapacity is dealt with at the industry level. Gross output of each industry and final demand for each industry can then be split up into a share that is reconcilable with Biocapacity and another share that corresponds to the ‘Ecological Deficit’. The Ecological Footprint concept is extended in this study by introducing the additional biocapacity necessary for sustaining the given level of economic activity. It is assumed that each industry had to rent the corresponding areas and to apply a given technology in order to make this additional land biophysically productive. That results in an additional technology for each industry leading to an increase in costs and prices. The new price level is directly linked to the share of output that corresponds to Biocapacity overshooting, which is defined by the ‘Ecological Deficit’. Economic indicators can be derived by measuring the income difference brought about by the price increase. This difference corresponds to a Ricardian rent which is due to resource constraints on output growth.     

The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO₂ emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO₂ emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO₂ emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO₂ during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO₂ that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO₂ than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO₂ emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO₂ emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO₂ being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints.     

Measuring sustainability: Why the ecological footprint is bad economics and bad environmental science

The ecological footprint is a measure of the resources necessary to produce the goods that an individual or population consumes. It is also used as a measure of sustainability, though evidence suggests that it falls short. The assumptions behind footprint calculations have been extensively criticized; I present here further evidence that it fails to satisfy simple economic principles because the basic assumptions are contradicted by both theory and historical data. Specifically, I argue that the footprint arbitrarily assumes both zero greenhouse gas emissions, which may not be ex ante optimal, and national boundaries, which makes extrapolating from the average ecological footprint problematic. The footprint also cannot take into account intensive production, and so comparisons to biocapacity are erroneous. Using only the assumptions of the footprint then, one could argue that the Earth can sustain greatly increased production, though there are important limitations that the footprint cannot address, such as land degradation. Finally, the lack of correlation between land degradation and the ecological footprint obscures the effects of a larger sustainability problem. Better measures of sustainability would address these issues directly.     

Economic impacts of the Natural Forest Protection Program in Yunnan Province, China： an input-output analysis

The paper assesses the economic impacts of the natural forest protection program （NFPP） on the economy of Yunnan Province, China.in terms of gross output, value added,employment, and household income. An inputoutput model is developed to estimate NFPP＇s economic impacts by means of backward linkages in the forestry sector and logging and haudage sector. It is found than the NFPP has positive impacts on gross output, value added and houschold income in the initial year, but has significantly negative impacts on the regional economy in the following years as the investment decreases.     

Relating the environmental impact of consumption to household expenditures: An input-output analysis

In this paper we evaluate the relationships between household expenditures and the environmental impact categories climate change, acidification, eutrophication and smog formation, by combining household expenditures with environmentally extended input-output analysis. Expenditure elasticities are examined with regression analysis, and are compared and interpreted on the basis of insight at the product level. With data from the Netherlands in the year 2000, we find that environmental impact increases with increasing household expenditures, although the degree to which the environmental impact increases differs per impact category. Climate change and eutrophication increase less than proportionally with increasing expenditures. Acidification increases nearly proportionally with increasing expenditures, whereas smog formation increases more than proportionally. It appears that the mix of necessities and luxuries to which an environmental impact is related is essential in explaining the relationship.     

Incorporating methane into ecological footprint analysis: A case study of Ireland

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) accounting is important to global ecological footprint analysis. However methane (CH₄), with a global warming potential (GWP) 25 times that of CO₂, should not be neglected as an environmental indicator for informed environmental management. While this is a significant component, the CH₄ associated with imported embodied energy should also be included in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. This study proposes an initial method for incorporating methane into ecological footprint analyses and hopes to inform future debate on its inclusion. In order to account for differences in methane intensities from exporting countries, methane intensities for OECD countries were calculated using emission and energy consumption estimates taken directly from National Inventory Reports (NIR), published in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For other countries the methane intensities were estimated using energy balances published by the International Energy Association (IEA) and IPCC default emission factors. In order to estimate embodied organic methane, material imports and exports were translated into units (such as live animals) capable of conversion into methane emissions. A significant increase in Ireland's footprint results from the inclusion of the GWP of methane is included within the footprint calculation.     

Application of ecological footprint in ecological industrial systems：a study case of maize-MSG production systems

To improve the comparability of the research results of ecological industry, the ecological footprint is appliedto analyze the resource utilization and environmental pollution in various subsystems, taking maize-MSG as a case.Results show that the production process from maize to MSG is a extended process of ecological footprint, and that theecological footprint of the maize production is the biggest; the extension of ecological footprint is followed by the increaseof footprint profit, which means that the extension of production chain is an important method to improve the resourcesprofit; the systems have a big proportion of the indirect energy ecological footprint; the air and water pollution in MSGsubsystem is the most serious. At last, it can be identified that ecological footprint is a good method to measure resourceutilization and environmental pollution in various subsystems of an integrated ecological industry.     

Analyses of water footprint of Beijing in an interregional input-output framework

Beijing is under severe water resource pressure due to the rapid economic development and growing population. This study quantitatively evaluates the water footprint of Beijing in an interregional input-output framework with a focus on blue water resources and uses. The inter-connections of water resources between Beijing and other provinces are analyzed with a sectoral specification. The results show that the total water footprint of Beijing is 4498.4 10⁶ m³/year, of which 51% is from the external water footprint acquired through virtual water import. Agriculture has the highest water footprint of 1524.5 10⁶ m³/year with 56% coming from external sources. The main virtual water provider for Beijing is Hebei, another water scarce region, from which Beijing receives virtual water of 373.3 10⁶ m³/year with 40% from agriculture. The results of this study suggest that the interregional trade coordination, especially for the main sectors with high water use intensity, is important for enhancing the efficiency of regional and national water resource utilization.     

Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery

Scenarios provide a commonly used and intuitively appealing means to communicate and characterize uncertainty in many decision support applications, but can fall short of their potential especially when used in broad public debates among participants with diverse interests and values. This paper describes a new approach to participatory, computer-assisted scenario development that we call scenario discovery, which aims to address these challenges. The approach defines scenarios as a set of plausible future states of the world that represent vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, cases where a policy fails to meet its performance goals. Scenario discovery characterizes such sets by helping users to apply statistical or data-mining algorithms to databases of simulation-model-generated results in order to identify easy-to-interpret combinations of uncertain model input parameters that are highly predictive of these policy-relevant cases. The approach has already proved successful in several high impact policy studies. This paper systematically describes the scenario discovery concept and its implementation, presents statistical tests to evaluate the resulting scenarios, and demonstrates the approach on an example policy problem involving the efficacy of a proposed U.S. renewable energy standard. The paper also describes how scenario discovery appears to address several outstanding challenges faced when applying traditional scenario approaches in contentious public debates.     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model

Forecasts can be improved by combining separate forecasts obtained by different methods. The complementary nature of the scenario analysis and technological substitution models means that combining the two can obtain improved forecasts. The former has the strength of dealing with the uncertain future, while the later offers data-based forecasts of quantifiable parameters. This study thus proposes a process for combining the scenario analysis with the technological substitution model for discussing new generation technological developments. The proposed process not only has the strengths of scenario analysis, but also contains features that scenario analysis lacks, including predicting annual developments for future years, considering old technology development, and forecasting substitution of old technologies. This study uses the forecast of the market share of Fiber to the x in Taiwan over the next ten years as an example illustrating the proposed combined forecast process.     

Towards a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database

This paper presents the strategy for a large EU-funded Integrated Project: EXIOPOL (“A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis”), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) input-output (IO) analysis. The project has three principal objectives:

(a)

to synthesize and further develop estimates of the external costs of key environmental impacts for Europe;

(b)

to develop an EE IO framework for the EU-27 in a global context, including as many of these estimates as possible, to allow for the estimation of environmental impacts (expressed as LCA themes, material requirement indicators, ecological footprints or external costs) of the activities of different economic sectors, final consumption activities and resource consumption;

(c)

to apply the results of the work to external costs and EE I-O for illustrative policy questions.

     

Hybrid input-output analysis of wastewater treatment and environmental impacts: A case study for the Tokyo Metropolis

This paper proposes a new hybrid input-output model designed to analyze both the generation and treatment of wastewater. This model, named wastewater treatment input-output model (WWIO), can be regarded as an extension of the waste input-output model (WIO) (Nakamura, S. and Kondo, Y., 2002. Input-output analysis of waste management. Journal of Industry Ecology, 6(1): 39-63.). As an application, I compiled the Tokyo Metropolitan WWIO table for 2000, which comprises 482 economic sectors, 11 wastewater treatment sectors, 12 types of wastewater-related waste and 6 types of environmental load. The model was applied to different scenarios to compare alternative wastewater treatment systems. The results indicate that replacing the simple treatment with the high-class treatment improves the quality of treated water while increasing CO₂-equivalent emissions. Meanwhile, when the dewatered sludge is incinerated instead of landfilling, both CO₂-equivalent emissions and landfill volume decrease.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Sustainability of nations by indices: Comparative study between environmental sustainability index, ecological footprint and the emergy performance indices

The present work makes a comparison between the two most used environmental sustainability indices of nations: “ecological footprint” and “environmental sustainability index”, with two emergy ratios (renewability and emergy sustainability index). All of them are gaining space within the scientific community and government officials. Despite the efforts for obtaining an index that adequately represents the sustainability of a region, according to the result of this research, nowadays there is not yet a completely satisfactory index. We consider that all of them need to be improved, but the results point out the possibility of obtaining one better index of sustainability through the junction of ecological footprint with renewability emergy index.     

辽西地区生态旅游刍议

本文从生态旅游的角度对辽西旅游资源进行了分析，并针对辽西地区生态旅游资源开发不足。品牌形象不突出等问题提出了建议及对策。