寿命周期成本评价与全面价值集成管理

基于建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会、发展低碳经济、循环经济的基本内涵与意义,寿命周期成本评价理论及方法、价值工程与管理作为技术经济与管理学科的组成部分,大有用武之地,应引起高度重视。随着环境、气候、能源问题的不断加剧,寿命周期成本评价理论及方法、价值工程与管理更具理论和实际意义而受到广泛关注。为此,本文基于作者的粗浅认识与初步研究,界定寿命周期成本的定义内涵,建立寿命周期成本最小化模型,论述寿命周期成本评价模型方法;以寿命周期成本与价值工程的密切关系为基础,探讨全面价值管理方法,论述集成价值管理理论．进而构建全面价值集成管理理论方法。     

资产全寿命周期管理方法简要评述

近几年来的大量研究成果表明,资产全寿命周期管理方法已经成为资产管理领域关注的焦点。通过文献梳理发现,该方法主要用于机器设备资产寿命周期内的全面管理。基于此,立足于资产全寿命周期的主要研究内容,即设备的可靠性、可维修性与经济性进行探讨,对机器设备资产的寿命周期成本与维修策略进行研究,对已有的比较有代表性的国内外资产全寿命周期管理的研究成果进行简要的评述。首先,对机器设备资产寿命周期内的费用估算和分析方法进行了总结和回顾,主要就设备资产寿命周期的费用划分、费用估算方法进行了总结和阐述,为以后寿命周期费用的估算方法的选择和改进提出了改进意见。其次,针对机器设备资产全寿命周期内的维修计划和维修策略进行了总结和陈述,分析了维修计划制定的原则和方法,并针对已有的维修策略特点进行对比分析。在总结已有研究成果的基础上,结合电网企业的实际应用,对未来研究的发展趋势进行展望。     

产业发展战略的波士顿矩阵导人分析与修正——以深圳为例的实证研究

产业型波士顿矩阵以产业生命周期为理论基础，产业发展梯度及产业发展质量为横纵坐标，融合两维时间概念，划分出四类基本产业类型，吻合产业生命周期的四个阶段。论文构建了产业发展质量和发展梯度的评价指标体系来分析产业发展潜力与发展基础，并结合CARDS模型来分析产业发展战略的选择。最后，以深圳为例来检验产业型波士顿矩阵的实用性和优缺点，并提出它在实际应用中存在的一些缺陷及改进建议。     

Using the budget constraint to monetarise impact assessment results

Recent developments in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) provide a basis for reducing the uncertainty in monetarisation of environmental impacts. The LCIA method “Ecoindicator99” provides impact pathways ending in a physical score for each of the three safeguard subjects humans, ecosystems, and resources. We redefine these damage categories so that they can be measured in terms of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) for impacts on human well-being, Biodiversity Adjusted Hectare Years (BAHYs) for impacts on ecosystems, and monetary units for impacts on resource productivity.The monetary value of a QALY can be derived from the budget constraint, i.e. the fact that the average annual income is the maximum that an average person can pay for an additional life year. Since a QALY by definition is a life-year lived at full well-being, the budget constraint can be determined as the potential annual economic production per capita at full well-being. We determine this to be 74,000 EUR with an uncertainty estimate of 62,000 to 84,000 EUR. This corresponds well to the 74,627 EUR willingness-to-pay estimate of the ExternE project. Differences to other estimates can be explained by inherent biases in the valuation approaches used to derive these estimates.The value of ecosystems can be expressed in monetary terms or in terms of QALYs, as the share of our well-being that we are willing to sacrifice to protect the ecosystems. While this trade-off should preferably be done by choice modelling, only one such study was found at the level of abstraction that allows us to relate BAHYs to QALYs or monetary units. Stressing the necessity for such studies, we resort to suggest a temporary proxy value of 1400 EUR/BAHY (or 52 BAHY/QALY), with an uncertainty range of 350 to 3500 EUR/BAHY.The practical consequences of the above-described monetarisation values has been investigated by combining them with the midpoint impact categories of two recent LCIA methods, thus providing a new LCIA method with the option of expressing results in both midpoints and an optional choice between QALY and monetary units as endpoint. From our application of the new method to different case studies, it is noteworthy that resource impacts obtain less emphasis than in previous LCIA methods, while impacts on ecosystems obtain more importance. This shows the significance of being able to express impacts on resources and ecosystems in the same units as impacts on human well-being.     

Eco-efficiency of intensification scenarios for milk production in New Zealand

New Zealand (NZ) dairy farms used to be the lowest input and most efficient dairy farms of the world. However, intensification of the traditional pasture-based system has occurred over the last decade and has not always been accompanied by increased efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to produce an updated reference of the eco-efficiency of NZ dairy farm systems and to analyse the implications of intensification on their eco-efficiency. Results for an average NZ dairy farm system were compared with those for three dairy farmlet systems representing a wide range in intensification practices. A low input system (LI) (no N fertiliser, no brought-in feed supplement, stocking rate of 2.3 cows/ha) was compared with an N-fertilised farm system (NF) (170 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year, 3 cows/ha) representing a first level of intensification and with an N-fertilised and maize silage supplemented system (NFMS) (170 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year, 13 t DM maize silage/ha/year, 5.2 cows/ha), representing a possible future intensification option. Their eco-efficiency in terms of milk production and land use was compared using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. NZ dairy farm systems rely on favourable temperate climate conditions and long-term perennial ryegrass/white clover pasture, to achieve eco-efficient milk production and land use compared to European systems. However, intensification of NZ dairy farms was shown to be detrimental to their eco-efficiency in terms both of milk production and land use functions and could greatly reduce their advantage compared to European systems. The eco-efficiency of LI was very high whatever the functional unit which is remarkable from an LCA perspective. NF and NFMS had a similar eco-efficiency except for energy use which corresponded to the most critical hot spot of NFMS. All studied NZ systems presented some areas for improvement where some new technologies available for dairy farms might play a promising role in the future. Finally, it should be highlighted that the comparison with European studies based on the literature available needs validation through a more comprehensive study using harmonised methodology and assumptions across countries.     

以循环经济为基础 实现社会可持续发展

循环经济是以资源利用最大化和污染排放最小化为主线,逐渐将清洁生产、资源综合利用、生态设计和可持续消费等融为一套系统的经济发展模式。要实现国民经济可持续发展,发展循环经济是根本出路之一。而要发展循环经济,I必须从制度创新入手,实施一系列相互配套,切实可行的政策措施。     

Production and Employment Impacts of Biotechnology —Input-output Analysis for Germany

Biotechnology is often regarded as a key technology with high potential for far-reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Among others, the development and diffusion of biotechnology may have considerable economic effects on production and employment. This paper analyses the economic impacts of different prospective diffusion paths of biotechnology in some major application fields for Germany. Bottom-up technology information from the literature, expert judgements and explicit scenario assumptions for various impact factors are combined and integrated in an input-output framework to calculate direct and indirect production and employment effects. The impact on net production and employment differs greatly between the different application sectors and depends on the respective importance of the various impact mechanisms. The indirect economic effects are rather high and exceed the direct economic effects. These findings show the importance of a bottom-up approach as well as the consideration of the indirect economic effects for appropriate analyses of the impact of biotechnology.     

Assessment of natural resources and the policy of subsidies in grain production

Based on the analysis on the status quo of natural resources input in Brain production and on the policy of Brain subsidies, this paper puts forward a new idea - establishing grain subsidies through assessing the value of the natural resources in Brain production. The assessment of the natural resources in Brain production provides rationale and reference standard for the policy of Brain subsidies, which will promote the sustainable use of natural resources accordingly. This paper concludes： （1） it is necessary for the grain subsidies to assess the full value of natural resources, including economic value, ecological value and social value： （2） the government should give farmers direct subsidies or environment subsidies according to the economic and ecological value of natural resources in grain production, （3） the social value of natural resources can be realized by establishing the country social security system, taking the social value as the criterion for the payment for part of farmers＇ insurance.     

事业单位职工延迟退休年龄影响因素实证分析

本文以生命周期理论为依据,以事业单位职工作为实证研究的对象,对退休年龄的影响因素从个人特征、经济因素、工作因素、制度因素四个维度进行问卷调查,借助二元Logistic回归模型进行分析。结果显示,最适退休年龄、工龄、升职空间、继续工作意愿这4个因素均与职工延迟退休意愿的强烈程度呈正相关关系,退休后社会保障外收入则与延迟退休意愿呈负相关关系。     

秦巴山区保护与发展生态型经济区政策研究

以我国4个主体功能开发区划分为依据,在＂生态主导,科学开发＂的理念指导下,对秦巴山区进行板块规划,构建秦巴山区保护和发展生态型经济区三大政策体系：《秦巴山区功能性区域板块规划》（自然保护区—南水北调调水区—粮食生产区）;《秦巴山区区域产业定位》（药—水—茶—桑—游）;《秦巴山区生态型经济区保障机制》（产业置换和生态补偿）。用绿色GDP替换现行GDP经济发展评价指标体系。变环境经济价值补偿为环境生态价值补偿。建立全员参与,以生态环境税为实现形式的生态环境补偿复合机制。     

中国经济周期波动中的消费行为特征研究

我国居民收入对消费波动具有显著的长期影响,消费与收入基本上沿着均衡路径运行;居民消费已经具有了一定的生命周期意识;居民边际消费倾向与平均消费倾向呈现不同的走势;我国居民消费敏感度较低,表明我国居民中将当期收入完全用于消费的人数很少,说明了我国居民的消费行为具有跨期平滑的特征。     

生态补偿视角下的耕地保护

耕地具有经济价值、社会价值和生态价值。但是目前我国耕地保护工作比较注重对耕地经济价值和社会价值的保护,而忽视耕地生态价值的保护,这显然是不够的,也不利于耕地保护工作的开展。随着人们环保意识逐步提高,强调耕地生态价值的保护,建立耕地资源保护生态补偿机制显得十分必要。     

电力客户生命周期模式研究与营销方案设计

电力客户具有生命周期,电力客户生命周期是指电力客户关系水平随时间变化的发展轨迹,它描述了客户关系从一种状态（一个阶段）向另一种状态（另一阶段）运动的总体特征。本文的研究目标就是基于电力客户的特殊性,提出了电力客户生命生命周期的划分及各阶段的特征。给出了表征电力客户关系发展水平的变量,对各个表征变量,在电力客户生命周期周期各阶段的变化趋势进行分析和研究,并根据各表征变量在各生命周期不同阶段的变化情况,给出典型的电力客户生命周期曲线。从而分析、研究并建立电力客户的生命周期模型,基于生命周期理念,提出新的电力客户细分方法,即：基于电力客户生命周期理念的客户分类,并针对不同细分客户制定相应的营销策略。     

Reduction of acidification from electricity — Generating industries in Taiwan by Life Cycle Assessment and Monte Carlo optimization

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a rather common tool for reducing environmental impacts while striving for cleaner processes. This method yields reliable information when input data is sufficient; however, in uncertain systems Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used as a means to compensate for insufficient data. The MC optimization model was constructed from environmental emissions, process parameters and operation constraints. The results of MC optimization allow for the prediction of environmental performance and the opportunity for environmental improvement. The case study presented here focuses on the acidification improvement regarding uncertain emissions and on the available operation of Taiwan's power plants. The boundary definitions of LCA were established for generation, fuel refining and mining. The model was constructed according to objective functional minimization of acidification potential, base loading, fuel cost and generation mix constraints. Scenario simulations are given the different variation of fuel cost ratios for Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that fuel cost was the most important parameter influencing the acidification potential for seven types of fired power. Owing to the low operational loading, coal-fired power is the best alternative for improving acidification. The optimal scenario for acidification improvement occurred at 15% of the fuel cost. The impact decreased from 1.39 to 1.24 kg SO₂-eq./MWh. This reduction benefit was about 10.5% lower than the reference year. Regarding eco-efficiency at an optimum scenario level of 5%, the eco-efficiency value was − 12.4 $US/kg SO₂-eq. Considering the environmental and economical impacts, results indicated that the ratio of coal-fired steam turbine should be reduced.     

Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology's life cycle

The use of multiple indicators in analyzing technological developments and exploiting the increasing availability of information has been recommended widely in order to decrease systematic biases between single measures. One of the few frameworks that take multiple sources into account is the Technology Life Cycle indicators that provide a measure for the totality of sources available for analysis and take their timeliness into account, although the linear model that the framework represents is often questioned. The aim of this paper is to provide bibliometric studies with insight into the timely relevance of using different databases. To assess the reporting sequence between different databases, this paper measures the reporting activity of three case technologies in different databases and analyzes the yearly reporting volumes of a number of items that mention the technology in the databases as suggested by the TLC indicators. The results of this paper suggest that, when science is the source of new ideas and the driver for technological development and innovations, communication can happen in the order suggested by the TLC indicators. However, this model does not seem to be a general model for detecting and forecasting a technological life cycle. In addition, the results of the paper point to the possibility of studying non-linear models of innovation and contexts where this type of dynamics might take place.     

金融危机的积极作用与中国的机会

金融危机的影响具有负面与正面的双重性.人们较多地关注于此次金融危机的风险与挑战,而对其正面意义认识不足.本文在分析了金融危机在金融体系优化、产业结构调整、社保体系建立、国际关系再造等方面积极作用前提下,分两个方面讨论了金融危机中的发展机会.在金融方面,近年来经济与外汇储备的持续快速增长使我国具有了国际化发展的能力,而金融危机为我国金融业国际化发展提供了难得的机会.在制造方面,金融危机强化了我国制造中心的地位,促进了产业结构调整与产品体系升级,提供了国际化、规模化发展机会.     

网络社会中“产消者”的兴起与管理创新

在网络社会的背景下,伴随着网络通讯技术的发展,消费者的角色及行为发生了变迁,消费者具有了消费者和生产者的双重属性。"产消者"的兴起正在重塑着经济生产主体与生产方式、企业创新模式与组织模式,是社会经济结构的一种变革。文章将"产消者"模式分为用户生成内容和消费者承担价值链环节两种形式,分析了"产消者"兴起的动因和理论内涵,认为我国政府与企业需顺应与推动"产消者"的发展趋势,激励消费者参与到研发、生产和营销等价值链环节中,支持消费者参与和监督产品的生产与交易,实施基于"产消者"共同创造价值的管理创新。     

梅州市森林生态系统服务价值评估

森林是陆地生态系统的主体,森林生态系统服务功能是森林生态系统与生态过程所形成及所维持人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与效用。文章采用产量—价格法、直接市场法、影子工程法、机会成本法等研究方法,评估了梅州市森林生态系统服务价值。结果表明：梅州市森林生态服务年流量价值180.679×10^8元,其中年生态价值为177.679×10^8元,是直接经济价值3.00×10^8元的59倍,社会价值只有14.89×10^8元。文章旨在强调森林的生态功能,对梅州市的环境保护和生态建设及森林生态系统的管理具有一定的参考价值。     

高速公路工程集成管理的关键理论及方法

针对高速公路工程的特点,提出了高速公路工程集成管理模式。重点介绍了实现集成管理的三项关键理论及方法:通过项目分解结构技术进行项目系统分析;运用工程全寿命周期设计的理论和方法实现全部工程要素的全寿命周期集成;应用全寿命周期费用矩阵分析模型实现工程费用集成管理。上述成果已应用于某高速公路扩建工程实践。     

生态文明理念下的区域空间规划研究——以宁波北仑区为例

生态文明建设,作为继农业文明、工业文明之后人类文明建设的更高阶段,涉及社会、经济、生态环境众多方面,因此应当成为当前区域空间规划的新的理念和新的指导思想。以宁波北仑为例,提炼出生态文明理念对区域空间规划的新要求,介绍生态文明空间规划的内容和方法。文章首先分析了北仑发展现状及空间演化过程,认为其产业结构调整、生态环境保护和产业与区域空间格局方面存在一系列问题,建设生态文明具有必要性和紧迫性;然后详细探讨了北仑生态文明整体空间格局功能区划、产业空间、生态空间以及生活空间规划;最后提出了北仑生态文明建设的保障措施。