Learning or lock-in: Optimal technology policies to support mitigation

We investigate conditions that amplify market failures in energy innovations, and suggest optimal policy instruments to address them. Using an intertemporal general equilibrium model we show that ‘small’ market imperfections may trigger a several decades lasting dominance of an incumbent energy technology over a dynamically more efficient competitor, given that the technologies are very good substitutes. Such a ‘lock-in’ into an inferior technology causes significantly higher welfare losses than market failure alone, notably under ambitious mitigation targets. More than other innovative industries, energy markets are prone to these lock-ins because electricity from different technologies is an almost perfect substitute. To guide government intervention, we compare welfare-maximizing technology policies including subsidies, quotas, and taxes with regard to their efficiency, effectivity, and robustness. Technology quotas and feed-in-tariffs turn out to be only insignificantly less efficient than first-best subsidies and seem to be more robust against small perturbations.     

An evolutionary model of recycling and product lifetime extension

This paper presents a model-based analysis of the development and diffusion of so-called ‘green’ products, i.e. those which are easily recyclable and which have a long lifetime. We address this problem by developing an evolutionary simulation model to identify the impact of the environmental R&D strategies of business firms on the economy and the environment. The simulation results show that R&D investment both in product recyclability and in product lifetime extension can be positive for the firm. Adopting such a strategy means that the firm can then market green products, which provides it with a competitive advantage on firms investing mainly in product recyclability whatever consumers' preferences. From an environmental point of view, the diffusion of green products will reduce both waste flows in the economy and pressure on virgin resources. However, diversifying R&D investment to develop both product recyclability and lifetime can mean slowing down the flow of recycled materials and may lead to even greater quantities of unrecycled waste. Our results suggest introducing regulation policies aiming at encouraging firms to invest both in product recyclability and lifetime in order to benefit from their complementarities. Furthermore, simulations show that it should be better to direct environmental policies on firms' environmental innovation strategies than on demand attributes because significant changes in these strategies would provide much more radical environmental changes.     

Ecosystem services and regional development: An application to Sweden

This study carries out interregional comparisons of development and sustainable use of natural capital with and without inclusion of non-marketed ecosystem services. A simple dynamic model of an open economy shows that appropriate adjustment of conventional income accounts includes flow and stock components, but excludes explicit entrance of pollution. Calculations are made for Swedish regions and for two types of ecosystem services — pollution sequestration and recreational services — provided by three types of ecosystems: forests, agricultural landscape and wetlands. When comparing the adjusted and non-adjusted regional income accounts it is shown that the two measurements generate significantly different pictures of regional income and growth; regions that are traditionally considered as relatively less growth promoting are shown to hold important sources of wealth from natural capital, while counties that are rich in conventional accounts fall behind when adjusting for values of changes in natural capital.     

Sectoral systems of environmental innovation: An application to the French automotive industry

This article seeks to show how a sectoral system approach may contribute to the analysis of the determinants of environmental innovations. By using Malerba's [F. Malerba: Sectoral systems of innovation and production, Res. Policy Vol. 102, 845-859, (2002)] concept of sectoral system of innovation and production, we develop a sectoral framework based on three building blocks: technological regimes, demand conditions and environmental and innovation policy. Within this framework, the sectoral patterns of environmental innovation result from the interplay between these three blocks. The conceptual framework is applied to the case of the French automotive industry, with a specific focus on the development of low emission vehicles. The analysis shows how technological regime and demand conditions lead to technological inertia, and so to a strong persistence of the dominant design. Finally, environmental and innovative policy are considered in an integrated way, so that we can study how they influence technological regime and demand conditions, and in the meantime how they are conditioned by these two blocks.     

What will be the environmental effects of new free-floating car-sharing systems? The case of car2go in Ulm

The purpose of this paper is the discussion of the environmental effects of a free-floating car-sharing system operating in Ulm, Germany. The system, called car2go, allows users to take and leave vehicles at any point within the city limits. Thus opposed to traditional car-sharing, there are no fixed stations and in particular one-way trips of any length are possible without a booking requirement. Since this is the first free-floating system in operation, there is as yet no associated empirical research. Based on primary data from a survey, a model was developed to forecast the environmental impact of car2go. The prognosis considers the period of five years after the launch of car2go in 2009 and indicates a CO₂-reduction per average car2go-user. In addition, more than a quarter of the survey respondents stated that they may forgo a car purchase if car2go was offered permanently. By reaching a greater share of citizens than traditional systems, the results indicate that free-floating car-sharing systems could contribute to reducing private vehicle ownership in cities.     

A waste management model for optimal recycling-landfilling policies under macroeconomic conditions

This research provides a waste management model in the presence of macroeconomic conditions. An optimal control problem which integrates the recycling-landfilling decision with industry supply-demand dynamics is designed to achieve the value-maximizing objective. The model simultaneously considers idiosyncratic technical and aggregate demand shocks, while the stoppage time for landfill use is assumed to follow a Cox process with the intensity function of a firm's total waste collection. The closed-form solution of the optimal recycling ratio is also derived. The results suggest that when macroeconomic effects are neglected, optimal recycling ratios tend to be underestimated.     

Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia

Much has been written on the determinants of technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented: the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data from Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance or alternative means of keeping consumption smooth leaves some trapped in low return, lower risk agriculture, one of the mechanisms through which poverty perpetuates itself in agrarian settings.     

Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration

During the 1980s and 1990s, most developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America implemented structural adjustment reforms, which included the liberalization of export crop markets and the abolition of marketing boards. The emergence of new marketing systems may have altered price transmission mechanisms, especially if collusion behaviors have appeared among domestic stakeholders along the marketing chain. I use threshold cointegration tools to analyze the dynamics of world price transmission to coffee growers in three deregulated markets. The methods I use allow me to test the presence of a threshold in both the cointegrating relationship and its corresponding error correction model. Over the pre-reform period, I detect asymmetric price adjustments that appear favorable to producers - deviations from the long-run equilibrium resulting from largest increases in world prices being eliminated relatively quickly - and disappear in the post-reform period. On the contrary over the post-reform period, the results suggest that largest decreases in world prices may be transmitted relatively quickly to growers. These results can be seen as expressions of a favorable pricing policy over the pre-reform period and an unfavorable influence of new private agents over the post-reform period, meaning that in some cases reforms may have failed to create competitive market structures.     

A bioeconomic view of the transition to agriculture: a comment

Abstract Arthur Robson (2010) presents an ingenious model to explain why the standard of living apparently fell during the Neolithic transition from hunter‐gathering to agriculture. His demonstration relies on a production function that has a strong property with regard to technical change. This note shows how Robson’s result can be obtained using a more familiar set of restrictions on technical change. Under these restrictions, an improvement in technology will cause parents to invest less per child and the standard of living will fall.     

Insurance,credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi

Does production risk suppress the demand for credit? We implemented a randomized field experiment to ask whether provision of insurance against a major source of production risk induces farmers to take out loans to adopt a new crop technology. The study sample was composed of roughly 800 maize and groundnut farmers in Malawi, where by far the dominant source of production risk is the level of rainfall. We randomly selected half of the farmers to be offered credit to purchase high-yielding hybrid maize and groundnut seeds for planting in the November 2006 crop season. The other half of farmers were offered a similar credit package, but were also required to purchase (at actuarially fair rates) a weather insurance policy that partially or fully forgave the loan in the event of poor rainfall. Surprisingly, take-up was lower by 13 percentage points among farmers offered insurance with the loan. Take-up was 33.0% for farmers who were offered the uninsured loan. There is suggestive evidence that reduced take-up of the insured loan was due to farmers already having implicit insurance from the limited liability clause in the loan contract: insured loan take-up was positively correlated with farmer education, income, and wealth, which may proxy for the individual's default costs. By contrast, take-up of the uninsured loan was uncorrelated with these farmer characteristics.     

The cost of natural capital consumption: Accounting for a sustainable world economy

The System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been criticized in this journal for ignoring the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being. This paper argues that extended national accounts should not attempt measuring economic welfare. Rather, they could and should assess the environmental sustainability of economic activity as the cost of natural capital consumption. The global application of SEEA concepts and methods demonstrates the feasibility of international green accounting. For the world economy, sustainability costs run to about 3 trillion US$ or 6% of world GDP. Large variations at national and regional levels suggest that conventional economic indicators may significantly overstate economic progress in some parts of the world. Data gaps and lack of data comparability affect these first estimates. National and international statistical services should be more aggressive in greening the national accounts. More prudent and more sustainable economic policies might be the result.     

Unsustainable timber harvesting, deforestation and the role of certification

Deforestation is a major environmental issue, while demand for timber products increases rapidly in the developing world. One can thus wonder whether forest harvesting is sustainable worldwide, or if demand for timber products is fulfilled with the products from deforestation. Our panel data analysis shows that countries where timber harvesting is more important tend to experience larger deforestation rates than others, giving the intuition that forest harvesting is generally not sustainable. We also show that timber certification is negatively related to deforestation and thus seems to be a good indicator of harvesting sustainability.     

Democratization is the driving force for technological and economic change

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between democratization and technological innovation. In primis, the paper shows, through economic history, that democratization is an antecedent process (cause) to technological and economic change (effect). In particular, the primary finding is that democratization is a driving force for technological change: most free countries, measured with liberal, participatory, and constitutional democracy indices, have a higher level of technology than less free and more autocratic countries. In fact, “democracy richness” generates a higher rate of technological innovation with fruitful effects for the wellbeing and wealth of nations. These findings and predictions lead to the conclusion that policy makers need to be cognizant of positive associations between democratization and technological innovation paths in order to support the modern economic growth and future technological progress of countries.     

Income inequality and the development of environmental technologies

Within rich countries, a large dispersion in the capacity of generating environmental innovations appears correlated to the level of inequality. Previous works analyze the relationship between inequality and environmental quality in a static setting. This paper builds a dynamic model more suitable to analyze technological externalities driven by the emergence of a new demand for green products. Under fairly general assumptions on technology and preferences, we show that: 1. the relationship between inequality and environmental innovation is highly non-linear and crucially depends on per-capita income; 2. an excessive inequality harms the development of environmental technologies especially in rich countries. Key to our results is the fact that externalities generated by pioneer consumers of green products benefit the entire population only for relatively low income distances. The empirical analysis robustly confirms our theoretical results, that is: whereas for rich countries inequality negatively affects the diffusion of innovations, per-capita income is paramount in poorer ones.     

A proposal for social pricing of water supply in Côte d'Ivoire

We consider the design of a nonlinear social tariff for residential water in Côte d'Ivoire, which is a case of a monopolistic private operator supplying a population of heterogeneous consumers. The proposed optimal tariff includes an initial “social” block with a low unit price, and higher consumption blocks with a monopoly pricing rule. This optimal nonlinear tariff is calibrated using econometric estimates of a panel-data residential water demand equation. Welfare changes associated with moving from the actual tariff to approximations of the optimal pricing system are computed under different tariff scenarios. We find that gains in consumer welfare would outweigh losses in producer surplus in a majority of Ivorian local communities.     

The market for bushmeat: Colobus Satanas on Bioko Island

Species conservation is an important issue worldwide. The market for monkeys consumed as food on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, is modeled as a bargaining game. The bargaining set-up leads to the conclusion that black colobus are being over-hunted. Using daily data an empirical density is fit to the price-quantity pairs resulting from exchange between buyers and retailers. The density provides support for the bargaining model. Quantile regressions are also fit to the data. The median quantile indicates buyers have greater bargaining power than retailers. Knowing who has bargaining power aids in the design of policy to reduce bushmeat hunting. Strategic elasticities are constructed from the quantiles. Given the harvest rate of monkeys and the elasticity estimates, the monkeys of Bioko Island are under considerable pressure.     

Growth effects of environmental policy when pollution affects health

In this paper, we develop a R&D-based growth model with a pollution externality and a health production sector. We study how health-impairing pollution affects long term growth, and the effect of an emissions' reduction policy (tax). We show that a tighter environmental tax has positive effects on growth via two channels. On the one hand, it improves workers' health and, thereby, productivity; on the other hand, it induces a reallocation of resources towards R&D and, thereby, higher research intensity. The size of the growth effect of a tighter environmental tax, and the level of the optimal environmental tax, are both positively correlated with the weight individuals place on health relative to consumption. As for welfare, a tighter environmental tax brings about utility gains in the long run and, potentially, also in the short run.     

The evolutionary approach to entropy: Reconciling Georgescu-Roegen's natural philosophy with the maximum entropy framework

The paper explores the relevance of recent developments in the Maximum Entropy hypothesis for reinstating Georgescu-Roegen's natural philosophy, with special emphasis on the concepts of evolution and time. The key point is the naturalization of the notion of ‘subjectivity’ in both the Georgescu-Roegen framework and Jaynes's subjectivistic interpretation of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. I introduce the concept of ‘observer relativity’ with reference to the evolution of ‘physical inference devices’. Then, the MaxEnt formalism can be understood as a principle underlying natural selection. Further, given natural selection, maximum entropy production (MEP) results from the confluence of maximum power (Lotka) and the maximization of information capacity, driven by energy dispersal. In these processes, hierarchical structures of gradients of energy dissipation reflect alternative positions of system boundaries, and hence different perspectives of observer-relativity. Thus, I can distinguish between observer relative Entropy_OR and observer independent Entropy_OI. This allows to reconstruct conceptually the two notions of time proposed by Georgescu-Roegen, with subjectivistic time seen as time relative to the evolutionary process involving incommensurable qualitative change. I claim that this philosophical view offers a powerful conceptual framework for recent empirical research into the energetics of economic growth.     

Stimulating different types of eco-innovation in the UK: Government policies and firm motivations

In this paper, we adopt a recent OECD framework and examine the role of external policy tools and internal firm specific factors for stimulating three different types of eco-innovations that range on a spectrum of lower to higher technological and environmental impacts: End-of-Pipeline Pollution Control Technologies, Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies and Environmental R&D. Using a novel firm-level dataset from a DEFRA survey, we estimate a Tobit model, which provides empirical evidence showing that these eco-innovations are motivated by different external policy tools and internal firm specific factors. Our findings indicate that End of Pipeline Technologies and Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies are mainly driven by equipment upgrade motives with a view of improving efficiency while environmental regulations are effective in stimulating the End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D. Interestingly, alongside government induced regulations, we find that market factors, mainly motivated by cost savings, are effective in driving Environmental R&D. Finally, ISO14001 certification is effective in strengthening the positive impact of environmental management systems on both End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D while CSR policies have no significant impact on motivating any of the eco-innovations.