Dealing with preference uncertainty in contingent willingness to pay for a nature protection program: A new approach

In this paper, we propose an alternative preference uncertainty measurement approach where respondents have the option to indicate their willingness to pay (WTP) for a nature protection program either as exact values or intervals from a payment card, depending on whether they are uncertain about their valuation. On the basis of their responses, we then estimate their degree of uncertainty. New within this study is that the respondent's degree of uncertainty is “revealed”, while it is “stated” in those using existing measurement methods. Three statistical models are used to explore the sources of respondent uncertainty. We also present a simple way of calculating the uncertainty adjusted mean WTP, and compare this to the one obtained from an interval regression. Our findings in terms of determinants of preference uncertainty are broadly consistent with a priori expectations. In addition, the uncertainty adjusted mean WTP is quite similar to the one derived from an interval regression. We conclude that our method is promising in accounting for preference uncertainty in WTP answers at little cost to interviewees in terms of time and cognitive effort, on the one hand, and without researcher assumptions regarding the interpretation of degrees of uncertainty reported by respondents, on the other.     

A Meta-study Investigating the Sources of Protest Behaviour in Stated Preference Surveys

It is a well-known empirical finding that some percentage of respondents participating in Stated Preference surveys will not give responses that reflect their true preferences. One reason is protest behaviour. If the distribution of protest responses is not independent of respondent or survey characteristics, then simply expelling protesters from surveys can lead to sample selection bias. Furthermore, WTP estimates will not be comparable across surveys. This paper seeks to explore potential causes of protest behaviour through a meta-study based on full datasets from 38 different surveys. The objective of the study is to examine the effect of respondent specific variables as well as survey specific variables on protest behaviour. Our results suggest that some of the differences in WTP typically observed between different demographic groups, different elicitation formats and different question formats might actually be attributed to inherent differences in the propensity to protest. Our results indicate that the propensity for respondents to exhibit protest behaviour when asked a stated preference type valuation question depends on a number of specific factors, respondent specific as well as survey specific—knowledge which could be used in order to reduce protest behaviour.     

Modeling self-censoring of polluter pays protest votes in stated preference research to support resource damage estimations in environmental liability

The identification and treatment of protest response in stated preference (SP) research such as contingent valuation is an underdeveloped area. Protest related to the polluter pays principle (PPP) is expected to pose an important hurdle to the application of SP research in environmental liability claims, for instance under the European Environmental Liability Directive. Our main objective is to test the effect of PPP induced protest votes on welfare measures for lost passive use value using different treatment procedures. We argue for a more reliable and defensible indicator of willingness to pay (WTP) in environmental liability litigation cases than current standard removal practices in cases where protest votes affect sample representativeness. Analyzing the impact of PPP-based protest response on WTP values with the help of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood sample selection model, a significant correlation is found between the decision to participate in the CV market and the WTP bids. Self-censoring biases average WTP and is correlated with factors such as respondent use of the resource and disposition towards its future protection. Simply removing protest response from the sample is indefensible and results in a biased estimation of WTP.     

A Semi-parametric Estimator of Willingness-to-pay Applied to Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data

The use of dichotomous choice questions (Are you willing to pay $x?) has been advocated as superior to open ended questions (What would you be willing to pay?) in contingent valuation studies of non‐market goods. A supplementary dichotomous choice question, raising or lowering the bid price depending on the initial response, gives increased precision. However, a problem with these methods is that identifying the mean willingness to pay (WTP) is more complex, and often conditional on making a distributional assumption. This paper will present a semi‐parametric method for estimating WTP without invoking any such assumptions, using the interval inherent in the double bounded format, and based on estimating the underlying hazard function for the distribution of WTP. An advantage of the approach over other non‐parametric methods is that it allows one to include respondent characteristics as determinants of the individual decisions, and does so within a computationally straightforward framework.     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

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Temporal stability of preferences and willingness to pay for natural areas in choice experiments: A test–retest

The main objective of this paper is to test the temporal stability of stated preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values from a Choice Experiment (CE) in a test–retest. The same group of participants was asked the same choice tasks in an internet-based CE, conducted twice with a time interval of one year without interviewer interference. We examine choice consistency at individual choice task level and transferability of the underlying indirect utility function and associated WTP values. The results show that choices are consistent in 57 percent of the choice occasions. Comparison of the choice models over time shows that the estimated preference and scale parameters are significantly different, suggesting that choice behaviour changed between the two surveys. Differences between marginal WTP estimates for individual choice attributes are statistically significant only at the 10 percent level. However, we show that this can result in significantly different WTP values for policy scenarios. The instability of estimated mean WTP values for different policy scenarios asks for caution when including WTP values in cost-benefit analysis.     

Trading Taxes vs. Paying Taxes to Value and Finance Public Environmental Goods

The potential sensitivity of environmentalresource valuation to payment vehicles is ofinterest to researchers and decision-makersinvolved in estimating and applying thesenumbers. A conceptual model is developed whichprovides insight into how the different paymentvehicles of a special tax and a taxreallocation affects the willingness to pay(WTP) for environmental goods. Hypothesistesting using contingent valuation datasuggests WTP with a tax reallocation is higherthan WTP with a special tax for ground waterquality protection in Georgia and Maine, USA.Technical measurement and welfare analysisimplications and limitations of valuing andfinancing public environmental goods using taxrealloactions are discussed.     

Past and present outage costs – A follow-up study of households’ willingness to pay to avoid power outages

Households’ demand for electricity continues to increase. This trend per se should indicate increased disutility from power outages. Additionally, batteries and other back-up systems have been improved, and the frequency and duration of outages have been reduced in many countries. By comparing the results from two stated preference studies on Swedish households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid power outages in 2004 and 2017, we investigate whether the WTP has changed. The WTP is assessed for power outages of 1- and 4 -h durations, and whether it is planned or unplanned. We find three main differences: (i) the proportion of households stating zero WTP to avoid power outages decreased significantly from 2004 to 2017, meaning that more households are willing to pay to avoid a power outage in 2017 than in 2004; (ii) the overall WTP was considerably higher in 2017 than in 2004, but (iii) the conditional WTP, that is, WTP for those that have a positive WTP for an outage, has decreased. These results have implications for how regulators incentivize and regulate electricity suppliers, because the results suggest that a reliable supply of electricity is of greater importance now than what the literature has suggested.     

How do market reforms affect China's responsiveness to environmental policy?

A large percentage of total investment in China is allocated by the central government at below-market interest rates in pursuit of non-economic objectives. This has resulted in low rates of return and a high number of non-performing loans, threatening the future health of the Chinese economy. As a result, reform of capital markets is a high priority of the Chinese government. At the same time, the country is implementing various environmental policies to deal with serious pollution issues. In this paper we ask how reforms of the capital market will affect the functioning of a carbon tax. This allows us to assess how China's willingness to join global efforts to reduce carbon emissions is influenced by China's current efforts to reduce investment subsidies. We compare the costs of a carbon tax in a reformed economy with the costs of a carbon tax in the current subsidized economy. We find that in the subsidized economy the tax-interaction effect dampens the effect of a carbon tax resulting in smaller reductions in emissions than what would result in a reformed economy. Importantly, we also find that the effect on economic welfare from a carbon tax is lower in the subsidized economy; in fact, for lower levels of reductions, the carbon tax is actually welfare improving. These results have important implications for an economy undergoing economic transition. The carbon tax rate required to achieve a certain level of emission reductions will be higher in an economy with capital subsidies. However, the welfare implications of the tax indicate that the current system with capital subsidies is highly distorting implying that there is a high efficiency cost for the non-economic objectives the government is pursuing by maintaining this system of subsidies.     

The effect of distance on willingness to pay values: a case study of wetlands and salmon in California

Most contingent valuation studies in the literature utilized a pre-determined geographic market area for their sample frame. In other words, they did not include variables that would measure the extent of the geographic areas over which to aggregate willingness to pay. These studies implicitly assumed that the effects of geographic distance were moot; an assumption that could have led to an understatement of the aggregate benefit values computed in these studies. The overall goal of this study was to determine if distance affects willingness to pay for public goods with large non-use values. The data used came from a contingent valuation study regarding the San Joaquin Valley, CA. Respondents were asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for three proposed programs designed to reduce various environmental problems in the Valley. A logit model was used to examine the effects of geographic distance on respondents' willingness to pay for each of the three programs. Results indicate that distance affected WTP for two of the three programs (wetlands habitat and wildlife, and the wildlife contamination control programs). We calculate the underestimate in benefits if the geographic extent of the public good market is arbitrarily limited to one political jurisdiction.     

效率工资理论的新发展：阿克洛夫的观点

阿克洛夫的效率工资理论,通过吸收社会学、人类学的研究成果,将人的劳动行为看成基于公平出发的社会习俗。根据这一习俗,企业支付的工资不少于工人预期的公平工资,而工人根据企业支付的工资决定自己的努力程度,从而决定自己的边际产出。对于追求利润最大化的企业来说,并非支付的工资越高越好,支付工人的工资应等于工人的边际产出。当公平工资高于市场出清工资时,非自愿失业问题出现,工人技术程度与其失业率负相关。二元劳动力市场的现实与人类内生的行为规范,使得非自愿失业问题的解决前景十分悲观。     

A CONTINGENT VALUATION STUDY OF UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTAL GAINS

Acid deposition in a present and future cause of biodiversity losses in vulnerable upland areas of Scotland important for nature conservation. However, the exact nature of damages under the status quo, and both the timing and extent of recovery of upland ecosystems if deposition is reduced, are subject to uncertainty. this uncertainty complicates damages cost estimation. In this paper, we have explored the use of CVM to measure the willingness to pay (WTP) of the Scottish population for uncertain recovery/damage scenarios from reduced acid rain deposition. An optimally-designed referendum format was used utilising the distribution of open-ended bids from a pilot study to determine bid amounts and sampling size for each bid amount. Eight explanatory variables, including future damage level were selected in a non-linear step-wise regression analysis. Average household WTP for abatement of acid rain was £247 and £351 per year when faced with low and high future damage levels respectively. Recovery level and recovery time did not significantly influence WTP. When faced with risky outcomes regarding future damage and recovery level, respondent were found to be risk averse to both environmental gains and losses.     

A convergent validity test within the payment card format using simulation techniques

A convergent validity test is performed between two groups of versions of the payment card format. The first group, the classic payment card (CPC), asks respondents to report their willingness to pay (WTP) as a point from a list of amounts, and then treats each WTP response as an interval. The second group generates WTP data that may contain both single point and interval values. It includes the two-way-payment ladder (TWPL) (respondents have to tick amounts they would definitely pay and cross amounts they would definitely not pay), and point-interval payment card (PIPC) (respondents have to tick their WTP as either a point or an interval). The test is conducted using data from one TWPL study and two PIPC studies. For each study, we use WTP values stated to simulate 200 CPC WTP datasets, which allows controlling for any behavioral biases likely to confound the outcome of the test. The results challenge the conventional way of eliciting WTP under the CPC and the typical way of treating WTP data from this PC version. Although convergent validity holds between the TWPL/PIPC and CPC, parameter and mean WTP estimates from the TWPL and PIPC are more stable as PC intervals widths increase.     

Joint estimation of discount rates and willingness to pay for public goods

We analyze willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental programs whose time periods of benefit and repayment differ, using a net present value framework that identifies parameters of both WTP and personal discount rates. Respondents to a contingent valuation survey focusing on protection of critical habitat buffer zones for the endangered Steller Sea Lion in Alaska were asked their willingness to pay for 1-, 5-, and 15-year repayment periods. We jointly estimate the personal discount rates and WTP via maximum likelihood, and compare with a model assuming a fixed, market discount rate.     

Are Korean consumers willing to pay a tax for a mandatory BSE testing programme?

The outbreaks of mad cow disease (BSE) have significantly increased the demand for food safety programs in the Korean beef market. Two issues that are getting much attention are about whether Korea should implement mandatory testing of slaughtered domestic cattle for BSE and whether consumers are willing to pay a tax for the programme. No study, however, has examined consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) a tax for a BSE testing programme. We conducted a contingent valuation (CV) study using a double-bounded dichotomous choice approach to estimate Korean consumers’ valuation for a mandatory BSE testing programme on slaughtered domestic cattle that are 21 months or older. Our results show that the sample-population adjusted mean estimate of WTP a tax per year is 4482 KRW (US $4.01) per household. This suggests that Korean consumers have a strong preference for a mandatory testing of domestic cattle for BSE. This study also found that Korean consumers’ WTP for the programme is greater than estimated implementation costs of the programme. These results imply that implementing a mandatory BSE testing programme in Korea could confer positive consumer welfare.     

Asymmetric information and uncertainty: The usefulness of logbooks as a regulation measure

In many fisheries managed by quota systems fishermen are required to keep a logbook containing information about catches. No well functioning enforcement system is set up in connection with the logbooks, since the purpose is to assist biologists in making stock assessments. In this paper we consider a case where three market failures (a stock externality problem, a stock uncertainty problem and problems with measuring individual catches) arise simultaneously. It is shown that a stock tax and a tax on voluntary self-reported catches may solve these three problems. By taxing voluntary self-reported catches we make use of logbook information. It is shown using an analytic model that it will be in the interest of risk-averse fishermen to report part of their catch voluntarily even without an enforcement policy. In addition, it is shown that the tax structure can secure optimal expected individual catches, and empirical simulations show that the tax payment is relatively low. Thus, the tax system may be useful in practical fisheries management.     

Asymmetric information and uncertainty: The usefulness of logbooks as a regulation measure

In many fisheries managed by quota systems fishermen are required to keep a logbook containing information about catches. No well functioning enforcement system is set up in connection with the logbooks, since the purpose is to assist biologists in making stock assessments. In this paper we consider a case where three market failures (a stock externality problem, a stock uncertainty problem and problems with measuring individual catches) arise simultaneously. It is shown that a stock tax and a tax on voluntary self-reported catches may solve these three problems. By taxing voluntary self-reported catches we make use of logbook information. It is shown using an analytic model that it will be in the interest of risk-averse fishermen to report part of their catch voluntarily even without an enforcement policy. In addition, it is shown that the tax structure can secure optimal expected individual catches, and empirical simulations show that the tax payment is relatively low. Thus, the tax system may be useful in practical fisheries management.     

Bid Design Effects in Multiple Bounded Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation

A potential concern in multiple bounded discrete choice contingent valuation surveys – where the respondent is asked to express voting certainty, rather than a simple yes or no, on a large number of payment amounts (bids) – is whether responses are influenced by the particular position of bids in the bid-voting panel rather than solely on the respondents willingness to pay (WTP). For instance, respondents may systematically state they would pay the first few bid amounts and not pay all subsequent bids – regardless of the actual dollar values. Such systematic bid design effects would suggest that this method does not provide a valid measure of WTP. Using a split-sample survey, we compare responses to three different bid arrays that have an identical minimum bid, maximum bid, and number of bids. Using nonparametric estimation techniques, we find that estimated WTP distributions and corresponding welfare measures are not statistically different across survey samples.     

Should all Choices Count? Using the Cut-Offs Approach to Edit Responses in a Choice Experiment

Should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment? Previous Choice Modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices—such as the extent to which strictly-dominated options are chosen. In this paper, a different focus is employed, namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes. Since hypothetical over-statement of WTP has been a focus in stated preference studies, we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of WTP, and explore the effects of “editing” such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re-classifying choices. The empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco-tourists in Rwanda. Our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices, and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay. However, issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay.     

The role of uncertainty in the relationship between fairness evaluations and willingness to pay

Participants in contingent valuation studies may be uncertain about a number of aspects of the policy and survey context. The uncertainty management model of fairness judgments states that individuals will evaluate a policy in terms of its fairness when they do not know whether they can trust the relevant managing authority or experience uncertainty due to insufficient knowledge of the general issues surrounding the environmental policy. Similarly, some researchers have suggested that, not knowing how to answer WTP questions, participants convey their general attitudes toward the public good rather than report well-defined economic preferences. These contentions were investigated in a sample of 840 residents in four urban catchments across Australia who were interviewed about their WTP for stormwater pollution abatement. Four sources of uncertainty were measured: amount of prior issue-related thought, trustworthiness of the water authority, insufficient scenario information, and WTP response uncertainty. A logistic regression model was estimated in each subsample to test the main effects of the uncertainty sources on WTP as well as their interaction with fairness and proenvironmental attitudes. Results indicated support for the uncertainty management model in only one of the four samples. Similarly, proenvironmental attitudes interacted rarely with uncertainty to a significant level, and in ways that were more complex than hypothesised. It was concluded that uncertain individuals were generally not more likely than other participants to draw on either fairness evaluations or proenvironmental attitudes when making decisions about paying for stormwater pollution abatement.