Toward an experimental foundation for benefit-cost analysis

Empirical results from experimental economics and neuroscience have uncovered regularities in human behavior that may provide a base for new approaches to welfare theory and economic policy. These empirical findings do not challenge basic economic concepts but they do imply that our assumptions about “rational behavior”, “opportunity cost”, and “social welfare” should be revised using sound scientific evidence and methods. This research has the potential to make benefit-cost analysis more reflective of how people value gains and losses, and more responsive to considerations of environmental and social responsibility.     

Bureaucracy, Tax System, and Economic Performance

This paper investigates the consequences for government size, growth and welfare if a selfish bureaucracy provides a congested input. Alternative exogenous tax systems are introduced and numerical analyses are carried out. The welfare optimum is only met under very specific assumptions: proportional congestion, a tax system only consisting of distortionary taxes and a bureaucracy that maximizes the budget's growth rate. Otherwise the relative size of the public sector becomes suboptimally large thus inducing welfare losses. From a welfare economic point of view bureaucratic selfishness is worse than a suboptimal taxing regime that does not (completely) internalize the congestion externalities.     

Adam Smith on Monopoly Theory. Making good a lacuna

This article analyses Adam Smith's views on monopoly by focusing on Book IV and V of The Wealth of Nations. It argues that the majority of scholars have assessed Smith's analysis of monopoly starting from premises different from those, actually though implicitly, used by Smith. We show that Smith makes use of the word ‘monopoly’ to refer to a heterogeneous collection of market outcomes, besides that of a single seller market, and that Smith's account of monopolists' behaviour is richer than that provided by later theorists. We also show that Smith was aware of the growth‐retarding effect of monopoly and urged State regulation.     

Portugal at the crossroads of change, facing the shock of the new: People, knowledge and ideas fostering the social fabric to facilitate the concentration of knowledge integrated communities

Portugal has recently achieved the average OECD level in terms of the number of researchers per thousand workforce and the need to continue fostering the advanced training of human resources and the concentration of knowledge integrated communities as drivers of larger communities of users is discussed in the context of changing and evolving patterns in Portugal. This requires an ongoing public effort, but also a better understanding of the effectiveness of the mix of public support mechanisms and private incentives for the development of knowledge networks and flows of skilled people in times of increased uncertainty.Our hypothesis gains from the experience of a unique set of international collaborations with leading institutions worldwide that has been successfully developed over the last years based on thematic R&D networks, integrating advanced training initiatives and programs of industrial affiliation. It is in this context that we frame our hypothesis and argue for the need for Portugal to continue attracting and fostering open and dynamic “creative communities”.The main policy implication of our analysis is that Portugal needs to double the number of researchers per thousand workforce in the coming years. This requires a broad social basis for science policies across a wide range of public and private sectors, as well as that innovation is considered together with competence building and the need to foster individual skills through the complex interaction between formal and informal qualifications. Emerging user-centered innovation requires users able to access new knowledge. This implies a broad societal engagement in knowledge activities, including higher education enrolment, and we need to strengthen the top of the research system in order to create a locus of knowledge production at the highest level. But it also implies consideration of the social shaping of technology, because incentives and infrastructures do not operate in a vacuum, but shape and are shaped by the particular context in which they operate. Strengthening external societal links and “system linkages” is critical in making the institutional changes required to meet the needs of global competition and the knowledge economy.     

New functionality development through follower substitution for a leader in open innovation

There has been a paradigm shift to a knowledge-oriented economy in the 21st century. Consequently, there has also been a shift in where innovation typically occurs. This shift has been from the production site toward the process of product diffusion. That is, innovation occurs more frequently at the point at which a product or service is moved into the marketplace where it is immediately modified through customer interaction. In this process, new “functionality” — services, the delivery method or even product changes occur in the diffusion process. Given the need to constantly create new value through new product “functionality” or new “functionality development”, firm strategy must address the issue of how to enhance innovation at this new locus — the diffusion process. Sustainable new functionality development over time has become crucial to a firm's competitiveness. In this context, firms have to develop new functionality as early and quickly as possible; leveraging whatever innovation exists in the marketplace. According to theory, the early emergence of functionality development in this context depends on a dynamic system in which the imitator (follower) is constantly substituting for the innovator (leader). This substitution corresponds to the dynamics observed in the process referred to as “open innovation”. According to this theory, functionality development through follower substitution for a leader would be critical for a firm's competitiveness in the open innovation environment. Furthermore, open innovation could be a process for sustaining the ongoing creation of new value through functionality development maximizing limited resources. This paper attempts to demonstrate this hypothesis through an empirical analysis of this process of substitution in major innovative goods and services in Japan.     

Poverty, voracity, and growth

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable property rights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests a new view of the so-called voracity effect according to which windfall gains in productivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Taking into account that the rate of intertemporal substitution in consumption depends on the level of consumption, it is shown that “voracious behavior” is situation-specific. It occurs when an economy is in decline and sufficiently close to stagnation.     

Public debt and financial development

We examine the role of public debt in financial development. The literature has highlighted its supportive role through providing collateral and benchmark. We contrast this “safe asset” view to a “lazy banks” view: developing banking sectors that lend mainly to the public sector may develop more slowly, because it could make banks profitable but inefficient. Results from country-level and bank-level regressions are more supportive of the “lazy banks” view, but the “safe asset” view seems to play a role at moderate levels of public debt held by banks. There is also evidence of a harmful interaction between public debt and financial repression.     

Social interaction and economic organization: Toward an integrative microeconomic model

In the context of increasingly complex economies, with information more and more complicated to handle, social interaction may allow spontaneous co-operation and be more efficient than market or state regulations to overcome co-ordination and information problems. This article provides a theoretical model that compares three “pure forms” of economic organization: state-controlled production, unregulated market, and voluntary organization. We model the behavior of agents who are embedded in a social structure that is characterized by three parameters: the intensity of socialization, the size of individual social space, and the overall level of trust in society. We then study how social interaction parameters influence the relative efficiency of the three different forms of organization.     

Technology transfer in the IT industry: A Korean perspective

Recently Korean Government announced ambitious IT strategy to establish Korea as one of leaders in world IT market. To implement this strategy, technology transfer from research lab to market should be successfully performed. This study is to identify factors influencing technology transfer and to examine contribution of these factors on success of technology transfer in Korean IT industry. Survey results show that technology project leaders evaluated “Concreteness of Technology” as the most influential factor for technology transfer, followed by “Communication Channels,” “Collaboration among Participants,” “Management Support,” “Government Support,” and “Incentives for Transfer.” Out of 135 technology transfer projects, respondents rated 33 projects as sustaining (28.44%), 38 as promoting (28.15%), 26 as demonstrating (19.26%), 27 in incubating (20.00%), and the remaining 7 in imaging stage (8.15%). This statistics means that 28.15% of technology transfer projects did not reach production stage. Regression analysis identifies that “Communication Channels,” “Management Support,” “Concreteness of Technology” “Sense of Common Purpose,” and “Awareness of Technology Transfer” were statistically significant in explaining success of technology transfer.     

Heterogeneity in price setting behavior,spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms

In this paper, we analyze firms' pricing behavior using a full informative micro dataset that accounts for a large part of Italian firms. In our view, “the black boxes” to examine are the relations between price setting, market structure and spatial disparities. The paper aims to extend the empirical literature in several directions. A first goal of the research is to investigate the link between heterogeneity in price changes and spatial dependence. Besides, we compare the price dynamics among sectors, namely manufacturing vs. service. It is irrefutable that prices stickiness is linked to good market rigidities. Consequently, these issues have extremely important policy implications; for instance, the Monetary Authority considers the macro price indexes in order to determine the right policy to stabilize the economy and to improve social welfare. However, the Central Bank does not distinguish the likely aggregation bias source from the cross sector–region–country heterogeneities.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

Manipulating market sentiment

We analyze a simple model of an asset market, in which a large rational trader interacts with “noise speculators” who seek short-run speculative gains, and become active following a prolonged episode of mispricing relative to the asset’s fundamental value. The model gives rise to price patterns such as bubble dynamics, positive short-run correlation and vanishing long-run correlation of price deviations from the fundamental value. We argue that this example model sheds light on the question as to whether rational speculators abet or curb price fluctuations.     

Convention, Social Order, and the Two Coordinations

The word coordination has two meanings, and thesemeanings are often conflated. One meaning, associated with ThomasSchelling, is seen in situations like choosing whether to driveon the left or the right; the drivers must coordinate to eachother's behavior. The other meaning, associated with FriedrichHayek, means that a concatenation of activities is arranged soas to produce good results. Along with the Schelling sense ofcoordination comes the notion of convention, such as drivingon the right. Some conventions are consciously designed; othersemerge without design (or are emergent). Along with the Hayeksense of coordination comes the notion of social order. Somesocial orders, such as the skeleton of activities within thefirm or within the hypothetical socialist economy, are consciouslyplanned. Other social orders, such as the catallaxy of the freesociety, function without central planning (or are spontaneous).Distinguishing between the two coordinations (and, in parallelfashion, between convention and social order) clarifies thinkingand resolves some confusions that have arisen in discussionsof coordination and spontaneous order. The key distinctionsare discussed in the context of the thought of, on the one hand,Menger, Schelling, David Lewis, and the recent path-dependencetheorists, and, on the other hand, Smith, Hayek, Polanyi, Coase,and the modern Austrian economists. The paper concludes witha typology that encompasses the several distinctions.     

Minimum wage,on-the-job search and employment: On the sectoral and aggregate equilibrium effect of the mandatory minimum wage

We study the impact of a minimum wage in a segmented labor market in which workers are at different stages of their careers. At the end of a learning-by-doing period, workers paid the minimum wage quit “bad jobs” for better-paying “good jobs”, following an on-the-job search process with endogenous search intensity. A rise in the minimum wage reduces “bad jobs” creation and prompts workers to keep their “bad jobs” by reducing on-the-job search intensity. The ambiguous impact on unqualified employment replicates and explains the findings of several empirical studies. However, a minimum wage rise reduces overall employment and output.     

Mergers and the market for organization capital

In this paper, mergers are an equilibrium outcome in which acquirers “marry” targets so as to gain access to their organization capital. Firms with lower learning costs about the new technology are not necessarily those that manage it best once it is mature. Since there are gains from trade, a market for organization capital can arise through mergers. This model generates a merger wave after a shock to technology and is consistent with several other stylized facts on mergers documented in the literature.     

Equilibrium selection and the dynamic evolution of preferences

A population of fully rational agents plays a symmetric 2-player game in biological fitnesses, but each agent?s play is determined by his payoffs, which are free to evolve according to “survival of the fittest” pressures. An equilibrium-selection mechanism is assumed to exist, and deliver a unique outcome for any given profile of payoffs; this allows the evolution of payoffs to be modeled as a well-defined replicator dynamics. The existing static stability results that “efficient strict Nash implies stability” and “stability implies efficiency” are translated to this dynamic context, although the latter gives way to indeterminacy in the absence of a specific equilibrium-selection mechanism. A strong form of stability is established for the efficient outcome of games with common interests, whilst a weaker stability result is provided for efficient mixed-strategy equilibria of doubly symmetric games. The results are illustrated using the equilibrium-selection mechanism provided by global games.     

Are virtual water “flows” in Spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity?

Virtual water adds a new dimension to international trade, and brings along a new perspective about water scarcity and water resource management. Most virtual water literature has focused on quantifying virtual water “flows” and on its application to ensure water and food security. Nevertheless, the analysis of the potential gains from international trade, at least from a water resources perspective, needs to take into account both spatial and temporal variations of blue (groundwater and stream flow) and green (soil moisture) water, as well as the socioeconomic and policy conditions. This paper evaluates whether Spanish international trade with grains is consistent with relative water scarcity. For this purpose, the study estimates the volume and economic value of virtual water “flow” through international grain trade for the period 1997-2005, which includes 3 years with different rainfall levels. The calculations show that Spain is a net virtual water “importer” through international grain trade. The volume of net virtual water “imports” amounts to 3420, 4383 and 8415 million m³ in wet (1997), medium (1999) and dry (2005) years, respectively. Valuing blue water at its shadow price or scarcity value, blue water “exports” oscillate between 0.7 and 34.2 million Euros for a wet and dry year, respectively. Overall, grain trade is apparently consistent with relative water scarcity as net imports increase in dry years. However, the evolution of grain exports, expressed as a variation in quantity and volume, does not match the variations in resource scarcity. A disaggregated crop analysis reveals that there are other factors, such as quality, product specialization or the demand for a standardized product, which also influence trade decisions and are not included in the notion of virtual water. These facts, among others, can therefore create potential distortions in the application of virtual water to the analysis of specific trade patterns. Nevertheless, from a water resources perspective, virtual water can bring important insights across countries for improving water and land management globally, fostering adaptation strategies to climate change and to transboundary resource management.     

Viscous demand

In many markets, demand adjusts slowly to changes in prices, i.e., demand is “viscous”. This viscosity gives each firm some monopoly power, since it can raise its price above that of its competitors without immediately losing all of its customers. The resulting equilibrium pricing behavior and market outcomes can differ significantly from what one would predict in the absence of demand viscosity. In particular, the model explains the importance of market share as an investment, as well as “kinked demand curves”. It also explains how apparently “competitive” pricing behavior can lead to outcomes that mimic those of collusion.     

Specifying “regime” — A framework for defining and describing regimes in transition research

It is more and more agreed by research and policy that a long-term sustainability of industrialized societies cannot be achieved without fundamental changes at the level of different societal subsystems, such as the agricultural, transportation or water management systems. This view has lead to an increase in the amount of research carried out about the so-called “transitions”. Transitions comprise long-term, fundamental change in societal subsystems and are seen as encompassing co-evolutionary and mutually reinforcing processes in the economic, technological, institutional and socio-cultural domains. Transition research aims at understanding transitions and at finding methods that facilitate change directed towards societal goals (so-called “transition management”).This paper adds to the growing body of concepts of this young research strand. It suggests a framework for defining and describing “regimes”, the systems resulting from the broad and interdisciplinary view taken by transition research. The concept “regime” is of central importance for transition research, since it defines the level of societal systems on which transitions are mainly analysed. What actually is “the regime” to be researched and possibly managed is however usually not given through clear system boundaries but is a matter of framing and deliberation. In order to guide processes of regime identification, the paper develops five defining characteristics of regimes and gives a definition based on them. Further a method useful to structure and graphically represent knowledge about a regime is introduced. Such a structuring of knowledge is an important first step to understand how a regime “works”.     

Crime and punishment in the “American Dream”

We observe that countries where belief in the “American dream”(i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective is to study the joint determination of these three features (beliefs, punitiveness and economic system) in a way that replicates the observed empirical patterns. We present a model where beliefs determine the types of contracts that firms offer and whether workers exert effort. Some workers become criminals, depending on their luck in the labor market, the expected punishment, and an individual shock that we call “meanness”. It is this meanness level that a penal system based on “retribution” tries to detect when deciding the severity of the punishment. We find that when initial beliefs differ, two equilibria can emerge out of identical fundamentals. In the “American” (as opposed to the “French”) equilibrium, belief in the “American dream” is commonplace, workers exert effort, there are high powered contracts (and income is unequally distributed) and punishments are harsh. Economists who believe that deterrence (rather than retribution) shapes punishment can interpret the meanness parameter as pessimism about future economic opportunities and verify that two similar equilibria emerge.