Participation and evaluation for sustainable river basin governance

This paper introduces a special section devoted to participation and evaluation for sustainable river basin governance. The departing point for this research was the recognition that although there is a relative agreement regarding the need to develop new multi-dimensional, inclusive and plural approaches to water resource management, there is still a deficiency of related methodologies and tools. This acknowledgement has motivated the undertaking of the ADVISOR — Integrated Evaluation for Sustainable River Basin Governance research project, which aimed at improving the understanding of evaluation processes, as part of river basin planning and management, and to test the use of specific tools to support the conduct of participatory processes. The paper starts with a discussion of the concept of integrated water resources management and an illustration of the water policies that have been adopted in different countries as a response to these trends. The conceptual framework that was developed in ADVISOR is then presented, as well as the main results from the ex-post analysis of the decision processes regarding five water related projects in different European countries. This analysis concluded that, in most situations, the decision-making processes fell short of including the interests, perceptions and values of affected parties. The remaining of the paper introduces the articles that form this special section, mostly devoted to the testing of new platforms for participation and deliberation. In the final section, a discussion on the assumptions and limitations of deliberative processes is presented, based on the results from the application of the different methods. Further research needs on the integration of different deliberative tools and on the integration of deliberation with decision processes are identified.     

ESTEEM: Managing societal acceptance in new energy projects : A toolbox method for project managers

There is now a large literature dealing with the policy question of public participation in technical choice and technology assessment (TA). Files such as the mad cow crisis, genetically modified food, and the emerging nanotechnologies have been edified into a public problem, and have given place to a number of experiments and reviews about participatory arrangements. Much less attention has been devoted so far to the application of the TA framework to more local and limited projects-not yet and maybe never reaching the public problem status-and the management of their societal dimensions. Among them, new energy technology represents a very interesting field for investigation: many of the new energy enjoy a global positive public image whereas the local implementation of their implantation often raises societal questions and oppositions. This paper describes an original experiment conducted in the field of new energy technologies during which a participatory technology assessment inspired approach was applied to a number of individual and local projects. A framework methodology called ESTEEM was developed to facilitate such participatory process to take place, and it was tested and evaluated in 5 projects located in 5 different countries over Europe. A detailed discussion of the ESTEEM method and its application to one case study, a Carbon Sequestration project in The Netherlands, is provided. We show that a major question in the application in such participatory framework is to establish a reflective practice of project management based on situated and constructive interactions between project promoters and project stakeholders.     

Participative multi-criteria analysis for the evaluation of water governance alternatives. A case in the Costa del Sol (Málaga)

This paper presents the results of a participatory multi-criteria evaluation of urban water supply alternatives in Costa del Sol Occidental in Málaga (Spain). Multi-criteria and social research techniques were combined, relying on social actors' involvement throughout the research work. The paper documents that participatory processes allowed to unveil framings, perspectives, values and interests, as well as understanding of the social and institutional context in which the waters are governed. The deployment of this methodological approach has in this case provided an extended diagnosis which was the starting point to explore non a priori foreseen management alternatives by the researchers. The methodological approach proved useful for problem structuring in a collective, flexible and iterative way, unveiling existing water management conflicts and their motivations, and improving the quality and effectiveness of the information exchange and the reflection process, among social actors, even if the whole process developed in a research setting rather than in a policy for real one. Participatory multi-criteria evaluation could in this case, contribute to identify policy options that could be better defended before all the social actors, including the general public, thus attempting to achieve shared ground. The paper suggests some methodological considerations for applying participatory multi-criteria evaluation based on the outcomes of the case study application.     

Bargaining and Devolution in the Upper Guadiana Basin

Increasingly, central governments approach contentious natural resource allocation problems by devolving partial decision-making responsibility to local stakeholders. This paper conceptualizes devolution as a three-stage process and uses a simulation model calibrated to real-world conditions to analyze devolution in Spain’s Upper Guadiana Basin. The Spanish national government has proposed spending over a billion euros to reverse a 30 year decline in groundwater levels. We investigate how the government can most effectively allocate this money to improve water levels by utilizing its power to set the structure of a local negotiation process. Using a numerical Nash model of local bargaining, we find that if the national government creates appropriate incentives, local bargaining can produce water stabilization. The actual water levels that will emerge are highly dependent on the central government’s decisions about the budget available to local stakeholders and the default policy, which will be influenced by the relative value the government places on various financial and environmental outcomes. Our paper concludes by determining the relationship between these relative valuations and the government’s preferences over water levels.     

Multi-agent simulations to explore rules for rural credit in a highland farming community of Northern Thailand

Multi-agent systems (MAS) open new modelling and analysis perspectives in ecological and social sciences. An original characteristic of the companion modelling (ComMod) approach adopted in this case study is the co-construction and use of a MAS model with and for local stakeholders such as farmers and local administrators. Alternating iteratively field and modelling activities, this approach facilitates collective learning among local stakeholders and between them and the researchers. Combining the use of MAS models with role-playing games (RPG), the described experiment aimed to facilitate collective decision-making in a socially heterogeneous community of small farmers in mountainous Northern Thailand about the local rules for the allocation of rural credit to allow a more equitable and extensive process of expansion of non-erosive perennial crops in a watershed prone to erosion. This paper presents the MAS model and the results of a series of simulations exploring the ecological, social and economic effects of various rules for formal and informal credit suggested by the villagers-participants. Six scenarios considered as pertinent to further explore the participants' suggestions were defined based on different combinations among the following three variables: (i) Duration for the reimbursement of loans, (ii) Mode of allocation of formal credit among three different types of farms, (iii) Configuration of networks of acquaintances for access to informal credit.Drawing on this case study, we first elaborate on the potential of bottom-up models such as MAS to analyze the functioning of agricultural systems, in particular farm differentiation and rural credit dynamics. We highlight the ability of MAS to deal with interactions between social and ecological dynamics and to provide an alternative to classical economic thinking by analyzing the effects at the village level of social interactions among individuals. MAS allow us in particular to trigger an overlooked but nevertheless fundamental aspect of socio-ecological systems, i.e. social capital which is a determining factor when dealing with sustainability issues. The second question addressed in this paper deals with the potential and limits of MAS models to support a bottom-up (or participatory) modelling approach. This experiment suggests that the usefulness of models relies much more on the modelling process than on the model itself, because a model is usually useless if it is misunderstood by its potential users, or if it does not respond to their current preoccupations. The intuitive representation of real systems provided by MAS and their high flexibility are the two underlined characteristics favouring their appropriation by local stakeholders.     

Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management — Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin

A Bayesian network approach is used to conduct decision analysis of nutrient abatement measures in the Morsa catchment, South Eastern Norway. The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management (IRBM) for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing cost-effectiveness studies, eutrophication models and data, non-market valuation studies and expert opinion. The Bayesian belief network is used to evaluate eutrophication mitigation costs relative to benefits, as part of the economic analysis under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). Pros and cons of Bayesian networks as reported in the literature are reviewed in light of the results from our Morsa catchment model. The reported advantages of Bayesian networks in promoting integrated, inter-disciplinary evaluation of uncertainty in IRBM, as well as the apparent advantages for risk communication with stakeholders, are offset in our case by the cost of obtaining reliable probabilistic data and meta-model validation procedures.     

Participatory decision-making in land use planning: An application in Costa Rica

The economic, social and environmental implications of electricity generation for land use planning are a significant and complex problem in many countries. One reason for this complexity is the existence of several stakeholders with very different views or perceptions of the different criteria underlying the decision-making process. Therefore, the aggregation of individual stakeholder preferences into a single collective preference is a crucial problem. In this paper, this type of problem is addressed with the help of a methodology based upon the definition of a consensus within a distance-based framework. The methodology is applied to a case study in Costa Rica at two levels: at a national level and at a river basin level. The River Birrís was chosen because the conflict of interests between agricultural production and electricity generation are especially significant in this basin.     

流域水资源管理综合集成研讨厅探讨

针对日趋严重的水资源冲突,提出把综合集成研讨厅理论应用到流域水资源管理中,构建了流域水资源管理综合集成研讨厅的理论体系及其框架,分析了流域水资源管理综合集成研讨厅的运行流程。     

Integrated water resources management： for： sustainable development of in western rural China

Management in water resources development of Jinghe watershed of western t：ural China is examined with Participatory Rural Appraisal method -- a rare applied method in China and questionnaire survey of stakeholders Combination of these two survey methods derives good restlts as it coutd avoid personal bias in identifying and ranking the issues on a concrete bas＇is in following up households＇ survey. Statistic Package for Social Sciences gSPSS） was used for data analysis. Results indicate that since the early 1980s, issues of water scarcity, river pollution, soil erosion, insufficient participation of stakeholders in water resources use and management, as well as centralized water planning and management system have created difficulties for Sustainable development of the watershed. The stakeholders and local governments are fully aware of the challenges and are committed to achieving a solution through integrated water resource management （IWRD）. The concept anti the application of IWRD for rural China are reviewed and analyzed, and a fram cessful implementatio involvement and capacity building in water sector, which heed to fully, integrate various management functions within the watershed.     

Water accounting for the Orange River Basin: An economic perspective on managing a transboundary resource

The framework for water accounting is applied to an international river basin, the Orange River Basin, which is shared among Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and South Africa. Each of the riparian states faces water constraints and relies increasingly on shared international water resources. The countries have adopted the principle of an economic approach to water management, once basin human needs are met, and all but Lesotho have constructed national water accounts to assist in water management. The water accounts for the Orange River Basin bring an economic perspective to water management at the regional level. The accounts include supply and use tables, which are used to compare the contribution to water supply from each riparian state to the amount used. The water accounts are then linked to economic data for each country to calculate water use and productivity by industry and country. There are considerable disparities in water productivity among the countries, which should be taken into account in future decisions about water allocation, pricing and infrastructure development.     

The community : Perspectives for its sustainability

The community has been the core social planning unit throughout history. It was through a process of dialogue and consensus building within the community that problems were perceived and defined, and plans for solutions agreed upon and implemented.The rural communities of the Maya zone of Mexico and Central America are undergoing an accelerated transformation of their economic and political context and physical environment. However, after decades of neglect or domination by the centralized bureaucracies, existing communities and new social groups often lack the experience necessary to address the new opportunities for participation, planning, and management to achieve the goals and objectives of the people.This article reports on the problems and results of a program of community participation and sustainable development. In the participatory planning process the social group can create its own shared unity of purpose and sense of achievement. Thus, the participatory planning process is not only a tool for the identification and resolution of problems at the local level but is also means for creating a sense of social well being, and recreating the community.     

Can capacity markets be designed by democracy?

In the United States, Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) operate the power grid serving nearly 70% of electricity customers and are critical organizations for ensuring reliable system operations and facilitating the integration of new technologies and market participants. RTOs are designed to be stakeholder-driven organizations, with rules and policies crafted through a highly participatory process. While the decisions that RTOs make have implications for industry, society and the environment, their decision processes have not been modeled in any systematic way. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework for the stakeholder process of PJM, an RTO serving thirteen states plus the District of Columbia, adapting some of the seminal literature from political science and political economy on the theory of voting systems. This modeling framework can generate predictions of stakeholder process outcomes, identify strong coalitions among stakeholders and identify shifts in political power in the formulation of RTO market rules. We illustrate this analysis framework using a detailed data set from stakeholder deliberations of capacity market reform in PJM. Our model predicts that the current structure of the stakeholder process in PJM makes the passage of capacity market reforms through the stakeholder process virtually impossible because it creates strong coalitions that would favor or oppose changes to capacity market rules. In the capacity market case, we also identify a small subset of voters that act as swing voters and confirm that political power is shifted to these voters by deviations from otherwise strong coalitions and abstentions from the voting process altogether. Our framework represents the first attempt to model the decision-making behavior of RTOs in any systematic way, and points towards emerging research needs in evaluating the governance structure of RTOs.     

An indicator-based integrated assessment of ecosystem change and human-well-being: Selected case studies from Indonesia, China and Japan

The paper highlights the findings of a study from selected ecosystems in Indonesia, China and Japan. The study sought to trace changes to productive resources of ecosystems over a period of 50 years; and trace the dependence of well-being of local populations on the ecosystems for the same time period. Data was collected from land-use maps, records and participatory rapid/rural appraisal (PRA) surveys in multistakeholder forums. To illustrate the changes, an indicator-based assessment framework was developed that integrates data from biophysical and socio-economic parameters. We observed that the approach (1) provides a better representation of the preferences of different stakeholders of ecosystem services, (2) fosters validation of data between the different stakeholders and (3) enables a communication and planning process among the stakeholders to sustainably utilize and manage their ecosystems. The use of spatial maps validates the relevance and utility of diachronic observations of communities and other stakeholders directly dependent on ecosystems. At the same time, they can be used to strengthen local planning processes for the development of services in the ecosystem. Such research thereby also acts as a catalyst to a social process of coordinated action to address local issues of global relevance.     

我国流域可持续发展的国家立法评价

本文通过对我国现行的与流域相关的国家立法进行梳理,指出我国已初步形成了较为系统的,旨在促进、实现和保障流域可持续发展的国家立法,但是必须通过适时和合理的修订才能够支持流域的可持续发展。修订时需要注意:加强对地下水环境的重视程度;综合考虑社会、经济和生态需要的同时,制订相应的标准和法律责任;综合考虑流域生态系统内的水、土、气、生物多样性、人文因素等;明确多个参与部门的职责及法律责任;注意法律之间及其与政策之间的相互支持;流域相关机构之间加强合作;行政的、市场的和社会的调整机制的综合运用;对流域与区域的统一管理提供更加强有力的支持,强化现有流域管理机构的职能;明确公众参与的具体办法;加强预警和应急制度的建设;明确对生态移民的保护;增加责任的可诉性规定等。     

论流域开发管理中的区域利益协调

流域是一种特殊的区域类型，既是由分水岭所包围的自然区域，又是组织和管理国民经济，进行以水资源开发为中心的综合开发的重要单元，构成经济管理体制的重要内容。流域内各自然要素的相互关联极为密切，地区间相互影响显著，具有整体性和关联性、区段性和差异性、层次性和网络生、开放性和耗散性等特点。在流域开发中，流域内部各行政区域之间、上下游之间，甚至不同流域之间，都存在着利益分配问题，它们是流域开发管理矛盾的症结所在，解决这些矛盾的关键是建立有效的区域利益协调机制，以协调流域内各区域之间的利益关系。首先必须解决与水资源相关的外部不经济问题；其次处理好局部利益与整体利益之间的关系问题；再就是协调当前利益与长远利益的关系。     

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Böhringer and Löschel (2006)

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics [Böhringer, C., Löschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.] claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed “back-bone” tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base.     

The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche

This paper reports on a study that has systematically investigated the follow-up and spin-off of participatory backcasting experiments in the Netherlands five to ten years after completion. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is presented, after which a conceptual framework is developed to describe and evaluate the impact of backcasting experiments. Three cases are analysed: (1) Novel Protein Foods and meat alternatives; (2) Sustainable Household Nutrition; and (3) Multiple Sustainable Land-use in rural areas. The cases show that participatory backcasting can lead to substantial follow-up and spin-off, but that is not always the case. Substantial follow-up and spin-off after five to ten years is predominantly found at the level of niches, and can be seen as potential seeds for future system innovations. The emergence of follow-up and spin-off comes along with the diffusion of the visions generated in the backcasting experiment. The visions provide orientation (where to go) and guidance (what to do). Visions also show both stability and flexibility. Factors that influence the extent of impact and spin-off of backcasting are identified, with a focus on stakeholders, learning and visions. Finally, relevance for system innovation theory, governance and policy as well as research recommendations are briefly discussed.     

湘江流域县域发展水平的综合评价及特征分析

从经济、产业、社会和资源四个方面,构建湘江流域县域发展水平的综合评价指标体系。基于熵值法,选取1991和2008年为研究截面,对湘江流域县域发展水平进行综合评价,划分县域发展动态类型,分析其变化特征,揭示其格局变化的影响机制。依据2008年县域综合发展水平和1991—2008年县域综合发展水平排名变化,将湘江流域县域划分为高水平增长、高水平下降、一般水平增长、低水平增长、低水平下降等15个基本类型。1991—2008年,湘江流域县域发展水平变化各异,随时间变化,县域发展水平差距有不断扩大的趋势,空间分布趋向集中。区位条件、资源禀赋、历史基础、特色产业以及区域发展政策是影响县域发展水平变化的主要因素。在此基础上,提出湘江流域不同类型县域的发展对策。     

ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS WITH INTERACTIVE AGENTS: DYNAMIC AND STOCHASTIC EXTERNALITIES*

This paper proposes a general modelling framework for macroeconomic dynamic behaviour of a large collection of interacting agents, and illustrates the procedure for a simple case of agents having the same binary decision set. Evolution over time of the fractions of agents using the same technology is modelled as a birth-and-death stochastic process with endogenized transition rates, and its master equation (Chapman-Kolmogorov backward equation) is expanded into power series in the total number of agents in the model. The first term of the expansion is the aggregate (macroeconomic) dynamic model. Stochastic dynamics of the proportions of agents using the same technology can exhibit multiple equilibria; this paper discusses an example with one locally unstable and two locally stable equilibria, with some simulation computer runs. There are two results of broad implication. One is the demonstration that stochastic dynamics allocates positive probabilities to all locally stable equilibria. Stochastic dynamics thus stands in sharp contrast to deterministic dynamics. In the latter, history (initial conditions) and expectations (often exogenously introduced discontinuous changes in trajectories) uniquely select the basin of attraction in which trajectories are eventually located. The second is the illustration of the usefulness of jump Markov processes in general, and birth-and-death processes in particular in economic modelling. Among several results specific to these processes, we show that the mean first passage time from one locally stable equilibrium to another is proportional to the exponential function of the height of the potential barrier separating the two basins of attraction of these two locally stable equilibria.