Corrigendum to “Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria” [Ecological Economics 68 (2009) 2560-2573]

This paper explores the issue of sustainability at the macro scale employing multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. The incommensurability of values and the essentially multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of sustainability challenge the use of composite measurement indices. This determined the choice of MCDA methods. Austria was chosen as a case study, due to the wide availability of data, especially on indicators of strong sustainability. The structure of the multi-criteria problem comprised the evolution of different sustainability dimensions over time. The process for selecting criteria included a critical assessment of institutional sustainability agendas (UN, EU and Austrian Government) and theoretical recommendations.After an assessment of MCDA methods, the NAIADE method demonstrated the most suitable properties for sustainability assessment. The application of this outranking approach was undertaken in two separate settings: long-term from 1960 to 2003 and medium-term, 1995-2003 with varying numbers of criteria. The response of results to the addition of evaluating criteria and periods was tested. The degree of credibility for accepting preference relations was also employed for sensitivity analysis.According to the results of the long-term assessment, especially in the weak sustainability setting, sustainable progress is taking place in Austria. In the medium term, in the stronger sustainability setting and, especially as the number of criteria increases, more incomparable periods appear and trends are less determined. Moreover, it is shown how results crucially depend on the methodological choices. This is one of the first applications of the multi-criteria tools to the dynamic analysis of sustainability at the macro scale.     

Dynamic sustainability assessment: The case of Russia in the period of transition (1985-2008)

Russia has experienced twenty years of economic and social change, which had a substantial impact on the regional and sectoral patterns of the development of its economy, infrastructure, the quality of the environment and the well-being of its people. The current economic revival offers new opportunities and presents new challenges for the sustainable development of Russia.The paper employs the UN Sustainable Development framework of indicators and assesses sustainability of Russia using multi-criteria evaluation methods, namely the uncertainty randomization multi-criteria evaluation method “Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency” (ASPID). The analysis covers economic, environmental and social trends in Russia's development in 1985-2008 and assesses sustainability of this development from the point of view of multiple criteria.The results show the potential of employment of multi-criteria methods for the sustainability assessment at the macro level and offer useful insights into multidimensional nature of sustainability and the role of priority setting in the evaluation process. Such an analysis reveals the degree of harmoniousness of sustainable development policy. It shows how different sets of priorities determine the outcome of multidimensional analysis of sustainability and could potentially help in assessing progress and designing new policy instruments. This paper is one of the first to apply multi-criteria methods to the macro sustainability analysis in the dynamic setting.     

Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis

In landscape planning, land-use types need to be compared including the ecosystem services they provide. With multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), ecological economics offers a useful tool for environmental questions but mostly case-specific criteria are applied. This, however, makes it difficult to compare findings. Therefore, we present a systematic framework that includes the ecosystem services as criteria into MCDA. The ecological quantification of the provided ecosystem services is combined with the assigned importance of the single ecosystem services. In a case study from the central Alps, we compared three land-use alternatives resulting from land-use change caused by socio-economic pressures: traditional larch (Larix decidua) meadow, spruce forest (abandonment) and intensive meadow (intensification).Criteria for the MCDA model were selected by experts, criteria importance was ranked by stakeholders and criteria values were assessed with qualitative and quantitative indicators. Eventually spruce forest was ranked as the best land-use alternative followed by traditional larch meadow and intensive meadow. The combined approach of MCDA using ecosystem services as criteria showed how criteria weightings and criteria indicator values influence land-use alternatives' performance. The MCDA-model visualizes the consequences of land-use change for ecosystem service provision, facilitating landscape planning by structuring environmental problems and providing data for decisions.     

Regional sustainability: How useful are current tools of sustainability assessment at the regional scale?

Sustainability assessment methods are primarily aimed at global, national or state scales. However, modelling sustainability at finer spatial scales, such as the region, is essential for understanding and achieving sustainability. Regions are emerging as an essential focus for sustainability researchers, natural resource managers and strategic planners working to develop and implement sustainability goals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods - ecological footprint, wellbeing assessment, ecosystem health assessment, quality of life and natural resource availability - at the regional scale. Each of these assessment methods are tested using South East Queensland (SEQ) as a case study. It was selected because of its ecological and demographic diversity, its combination of coastal and land management issues, and its urban metropolitan and rural farm and non-farm communities. The applicability of each of these methods to regional assessment was examined using an evaluation criteria matrix, which describes the attributes of an effective method and the characteristics that make these methods useful for regional management and building community capacity to progress sustainability. We found that the methods tested failed to effectively measure progress toward sustainability at the regional scale, demonstrating the need for a new method for assessing regional sustainability.     

多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中的应用研究

目的多指标决策分析法作为一种重要的决策分析方法,其在卫生技术评价中的应用引起了国内外许多学者的关注。本文主要研究多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中应用的可能性。方法选取多指标决策分析的两种类型,将其应用于具体的卫生技术评价案例中进行分析。结果在满足一定的假设条件下,多指标决策分析可以应用于卫生技术评价。结论在卫生技术评价中引用多指标决策分析,仍有许多相关问题有待深入研究和探索。     

Developing and applying a framework to evaluate participatory research for sustainability

The normative implications of participatory research imply ongoing social learning that ought to lead to personal and institutional transformation. Sustainability science also requires reflexive scientific practice in order to enable the co-generation of solutions that take account of uncertainty and multiple forms of knowledge. However, there is little published peer-reviewed material on how to assess to what degree the rhetoric regarding the benefits of participatory research are achieved in practice, particularly with regard to participatory research for sustainability. This paper outlines how linking the rationales for participatory research and for sustainability science to the principles of evaluation can deliver a conceptually coherent evaluation framework for assessment. The approach for evaluating participatory research in this context consists of framing the evaluation, i.e., setting boundaries on the subject within its social, political, environmental and institutional context and selecting appropriate criteria, methods and data sources. The application of the framework, using a summative evaluation of participatory research for sustainability in north-east Australia, illustrates its strengths and weaknesses, concluding with a consideration of its applicability to further participatory sustainability science.     

区域可持续发展监测的方法学研究

对近年来国内外有关区域可持续发展监测的进展做了调研和分析,并选取宁波、广州、苏州、扬州以及三明和烟台等城市展开案例研究。从经济学、生态学、社会政治学和综合评价等出发讨论了4种监测方法,系统地提出了指标综合评价方法的基本步骤:指标的筛选、指标和数据的评估、指标体系的建立、数据的处理方法以及最终报告的撰写与发布,并介绍了研究中区域数据库的建立与评估软件的开发。案例研究的结果表明:资源损耗、环境损失、人均GDP是影响区域可持续发展的核心因子。对上述因子的定量核算,从多学科角度来综合评估监测区域可持续发展是必要的。     

我国地方政府债务可持续性的一个综合分析框架

本文首先运用圭多提和库莫提出的资产负债框架,对当前我国地方政府的债务可持续性现状进行了初步的静态评估,然后通过构建以政府收支流量为主要变量的政府债务可持续性动态模型,对实现政府债务可持续性应满足的条件进行了分析,最后从地方政府收入体系的制度性调整与支出行为的制度性调整两个方面,对如何实现我国地方政府债务可持续性,化解地方政府债务风险提出相关的政策建议.     

Dynamic environmental performance analysis: A Malmquist index approach

This article presents a general framework for dynamic environmental performance analysis by generalizing the approach proposed by Kuosmanen and Kortelainen [Kuosmanen, T., Kortelainen, M., 2005. Measuring Eco-Efficiency of Production with Data Envelopment Analysis. Journal of Industrial Ecology 9(4), 59-72.] from a static to a dynamic setting. For this purpose we construct an environmental performance index (EPI) by applying frontier efficiency techniques and a Malmquist index approach. Compared to other dynamic environmental productivity and efficiency analysis approaches based on these methods, our approach builds on the standard definition of eco-efficiency as it is presented in the ecological economics literature. Recognizing the importance to analyze the sources of environmental performance changes, we show how changes in overall environmental performance can be decomposed into changes in relative eco-efficiency and shifts in environmental technology, respectively. We apply the presented technique at the macro level to dynamic environmental performance analysis of 20 member states of the European Union in 1990-2003. According to the results, environmental technical change mostly explains the improvement in overall environmental performance, while relative eco-efficiency change has been minor for most countries during the sample period.     

Socio-ecological regime transitions in Austria and the United Kingdom

We employ the concepts of socio-ecological regime and regime transition to better understand the biophysical causes and consequences of industrialization. For two case studies, the United Kingdom and Austria we describe two steps in a major transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime and the resulting consequences for energy use, land use and labour organization. In a first step, the coal based industrial regime co-existed with an agricultural sector remaining within the bounds of the old regime. In a second step, the oil/electricity based industrial regime, agriculture was integrated into the new pattern and the socio-ecological transition had been completed. Industrialization offers an answer to the input and growth related sustainability problems of the agrarian regime but creates new sustainability problems of a larger scale. While today's industrial societies are stabilizing their resource use albeit at an unsustainable level large parts of the global society are in midst of the old industrial transition. This poses severe problems for global sustainability.     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.     

我国上市公司可持续发展的计量模型与实证分析

随着我国对稳定发展资本市场的日益重视 ,如何客观评价上市公司自身的竞争优势、长期绩效和成长能力 ,从而科学认识其持续发展的内在规律已成为一个亟待研究和解决的重要问题。为此 ,本文构建出一个新颖的上市公司可持续发展计量模型 ,并首次运用屏面数据计量方法进行实证研究 ,通过使用数理统计工具 ,如Mahalanobis广义距离、计算机集约法和刀切法 ,深入剖析我国上市公司长期绩效的形成机制 ,发现动态累积效益模型能深刻揭示出各类可持续发展指标之间错综复杂的内在关系、真实体现上市公司可持续发展的本质特征并客观评价上市公司的综合素质。     

Improving pluralism in Multi Criteria Decision Aid approach through Focus Group technique and Content Analysis

Various economic valuation techniques and Multi Criteria Decision Aid (henceforth MCDA) methods seek to identify and evaluate the environmental impacts in aquatic ecosystems for the improvement of the decision making process. Despite the latter's ability to respond more effectively to the task of confronting environmental problems thanks to its multidimensional structure, strong criticism is levelled against the obscurity prevalent in the way the social preferences are elicited and certain criteria and weights are adopted. In the present paper, the Focus Group technique, complemented by Content Analysis, are applied in order to strengthen the pluralistic concept of MCDA approach and enhance the social learning in decision making processes. The analysis was accomplished within the framework of the EUROCAT project (European Catchments: Catchments Changes and their impacts on the coast), and was applied to the delta area of the Axios transboundary river in Northern Greece.     

Growth Effects of Free Trade under Increasing Returns

This paper addresses the long-term sustainability of the growth effects from trade, within the context of a dynamic optimization model where the investment sector exhibits an initial phase of increasing returns. It is proved that the qualitative properties of trade and growth remain valid, even for decreasing, rather than constant, returns to scale in the consumption sector. That is, trade enables an economy to escape a "poverty trap" and enjoy unbounded growth. Moreover, the asymptotic long-run growth rate of the optimal consumption levels with trade is determined, establishing that trade has a beneficial effect on long-run growth.
JEL Classification Numbers: O41, F12.     

Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

内蒙古农牧业系统的能值动态分析与评价

内蒙古1985年、1995年和2003年不同年份的农牧业系统能值分析表明,环境资源对内蒙古农牧业的发展影响巨大。不可更新的工业辅助能值呈较大幅度增长,但仍处于较低水平。农牧业系统的净能值产出率呈逐年递减的趋势,环境负载率呈不断升高的趋势,农牧业系统目前发展的可持续性比较差。内蒙古农牧业系统的农畜产品产出能值有较大的提高。以耗粮为主的猪肉产出能值的比重虽然呈下降的趋势,但依然占了总畜产品产出能值的一半左右。内蒙古奶类的能值产出呈较快增长趋势。建议将农业结构的调整与生态环境建设结合起来,形成以草为中心的战略调整,加强政府的宏观调控和管理水平。     

On the Internal Consistency of Stock Market Forecasts

Using the Livingston survey data, we test internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term, and long-term stock market forecasts of the S&P 500®. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a forecast formation process featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find some weak evidence of internal inconsistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

On the persistence of job creation in old and new firms

We analyze the persistence of new jobs in new and old firms. This measure assesses the sustainability of job creation in different circumstances. We find that new jobs in Austria last significantly longer in new than in old firms.