Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Alternative paths to structural adjustment in a three-gap model: the case of Uzbekistan

This study presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap frame work focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It lays emphasis on both domestic and external factors that determine economic outcomes and welfare. An attempt is made to quantify two policy scenarios (gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy). It turns out that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most perform ance and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The study also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbek istan.     

Ethical dilemma scenarios and emerging technologies

This paper posits that ethical dilemma scenarios are a useful instrument to provoke policy‐makers and other stakeholders, to including industry, in considering the privacy, ethical, social and other implications of new and emerging technologies. It describes a methodology for constructing and deconstructing such scenarios and provides four such scenarios in an orthogonal relationship with each other. The paper describes some different, but closely related scenario construction–deconstruction methodologies, which formed the basis for the methodology adopted in the European Commission-funded PRESCIENT project. The paper makes the point that in ethical dilemma scenarios, it is not immediately apparent what choices policy‐makers should select. Hence, there is a need for undertaking a privacy and ethical impact assessment and engaging stakeholders in the process to identify and discuss the issues raised in the scenarios.     

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (i) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (ii) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (iii) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement.     

Developing and applying a framework to evaluate participatory research for sustainability

The normative implications of participatory research imply ongoing social learning that ought to lead to personal and institutional transformation. Sustainability science also requires reflexive scientific practice in order to enable the co-generation of solutions that take account of uncertainty and multiple forms of knowledge. However, there is little published peer-reviewed material on how to assess to what degree the rhetoric regarding the benefits of participatory research are achieved in practice, particularly with regard to participatory research for sustainability. This paper outlines how linking the rationales for participatory research and for sustainability science to the principles of evaluation can deliver a conceptually coherent evaluation framework for assessment. The approach for evaluating participatory research in this context consists of framing the evaluation, i.e., setting boundaries on the subject within its social, political, environmental and institutional context and selecting appropriate criteria, methods and data sources. The application of the framework, using a summative evaluation of participatory research for sustainability in north-east Australia, illustrates its strengths and weaknesses, concluding with a consideration of its applicability to further participatory sustainability science.     

Measuring the immeasurable — A survey of sustainability indices

Sustainability indices for countries provide a one-dimensional metric to valuate country-specific information on the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, environmental, and social conditions. At the policy level, they suggest an unambiguous yardstick against which a country's development can be measured and even a cross-country comparison can be performed. This article reviews the explanatory power of various sustainability indices applied in policy practice. We show that these indices fail to fulfill fundamental scientific requirements making them rather useless if not misleading with respect to policy advice.     

科学、价值与判断在环境影响评估架构中之整合

公共政策研拟，尤其是环境影响评估，不仅牵涉技术性科学层面，同时涵盖社会性价值评估与政策性决策判断。旨在探讨如何将科学、价值与判断等因素合理融合于环境影响评估作业过程中，并据此研拟一环境影响评估架构，作为中国台湾地区环保部门开发案审核依据之参考。本文所研拟之环境影响评估架构的理论基础包括社会选择理论、社会判断理论及多属性评估方法。通过社会选择理论分析环境政策制定的机制；通过社会判断理论解释科学与价值如何整合于政策制定及其可行性中；而通过多属性评估方法建立开发案评选的集体决策技术。以山坡地开发为例说明此架构在实践中的应用。     

基于云模型的基础设施项目可持续性评价

基础设施项目可持续性评价是基础设施项目决策的重要组成部分。在文献研究的基础上,构建了城镇基础设施项目可持续性评价指标体系。在评价过程中,针对基础设施项目可持续性表现出的随机性和模糊性等特点和评价过程中决策者可能存在的属性状态偏好,引入云模型描述基础设施项目可持续性的各属性,实现了基础设施项目可持续性的不确定性度量,并通过惩罚因子对属性值进行修正,提出了基于云模型的基础设施项目可持续性评价方法。     

Editorial

This paper presents an overview of issues for future research. as identified by the papers appearing in the Special Issue on Innovation in Telecommunications. To this end. we elaborate upon the emergence of a new innovation regime in telecommunications, discuss the performance and sustainability of this new innovation regime, and reflect upon institutional choices for the regime and accompanying policy options. Further research on innovation in telecommunications is advocated, taking up a broad range of issues, including long-term industrial evolution and sustainability concerns in a wide sense.     

The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both the unit root and co-integration tests on which the sustainability testing procedure is based require a long period of data. We find considerable evidence in favor of sustainability for the 1903–2003 period which is not, however, maintained for the more recent 1975–2003 period, as it is characterized by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.Paper presented at the 2004 CESifo-LBI Conference on “Sustainability of Public Debt”, October 22–23 2004, Munich.     

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Böhringer and Löschel (2006)

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics [Böhringer, C., Löschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.] claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed “back-bone” tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base.     

Nature,roads or hospitals? An empirical evaluation of ‘sustainable development preferences’

While a key proposition is that a sustainable path is one where wealth does not decline, whether losses in natural capital can be compensated in wellbeing terms by more produced, social or natural capital remains an area of controversy. In this paper, we seek to better understand preferences for different combinations of assets that comprise (part of) the asset portfolio of a nation. In a study of coastal and marine natural assets, we test for the existence of weak or strong sustainability preferences using different compensation options (respectively produced capital and natural capital) offered to a sample of the public in Spain in the case of possible future oil spills. As a further element of this test, we provide an empirical reflection on Aldred (2002, 2006) and Turner (2007) who speculate that individuals may not view money as compensating for certain environmental losses whereas investments in social assets may offer a more acceptable compensation option. Our results do appear to circumscribe in some way the acceptability of investing in produced capital and reveal a tendency towards a preference for social capital compensation. Nevertheless, the size of the oil spill and the environmental beliefs of respondents also influence choices over the natural capital compensation option.     

Sustainability Policy and Environmental Policy

A theoretical, representative‐agent economy with a depletable resource stock, polluting emissions and productive capital is used to contrast environmental policy, which internalises externalised environmental values, with sustainability policy, which achieves some form of intergenerational equity. The obvious environmental policy comprises an emissions tax and a resource stock subsidy, each equal to the respective external cost or benefit. Sustainability policy comprises an incentive affecting the choice between consumption and investment, and can be a consumption tax, capital subsidy or investment subsidy, or a combination thereof. Environmental policy can reduce the strength of the sustainability policy needed. More specialised results are derived in a small open economy with no environmental effects on utility.     

Using the concept of yield to assess the sustainability of different tourist types

Sustainability assessments have become important tools for decision makers. This research assesses the sustainability of different types of tourists in New Zealand by using the concept of yield and by developing yield indicators in the areas of financial, public sector and sustainable yield. The concept and indicators have been developed in cooperation with the New Zealand tourism sector and therefore provide a sector-driven approach to implement a sustainability assessment. The analysis shows that there are numerous ‘trade-offs’ between indicators when attempting to define the ‘ideal visitor type’. Coach tourists, for example, are the largest spenders and generate the greatest Value Added in tourism on a per-day basis, but they contribute less to the financial sustainability of tourism when the costs of capital are accounted for. Coach tourists are highly concentrated in a few key destinations and at the same time produce substantial amounts of CO₂ emissions due to their air travel component. In contrast, backpacker and camping tourists provide greater financial yield and are more dispersed, but they are also the greatest user of publicly provided tourist attractions and therefore come at a higher cost to government than other tourist types. Camping tourists are also contributing considerably to CO₂ emissions. The yield analysis proposed in this paper could be a valuable tool for complex policy decision making and identifying strategies that lead to high-yield tourism.     

风险、社会保障与农村宗教信仰

遵循理性选择研究范式,本文研究了农村社会保障与农村信教行为之间的关系.实证分析结果表明,风险是宗教选择和宗教参与的一个重要决定因素;目前农村社会保障水平对信仰量变有显著影响,但对信仰质变尚不够构成显著影响;"新农合"的开展能够有效地降低农村宗教信仰的增长速度.这些结果可以对农村"宗教热"现象进行解释:世俗社会对于农村居民所面临风险的不作为或者弱作为,是宗教在农村颇具吸引力的一个重要原因.     

Regional sustainability: How useful are current tools of sustainability assessment at the regional scale?

Sustainability assessment methods are primarily aimed at global, national or state scales. However, modelling sustainability at finer spatial scales, such as the region, is essential for understanding and achieving sustainability. Regions are emerging as an essential focus for sustainability researchers, natural resource managers and strategic planners working to develop and implement sustainability goals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods - ecological footprint, wellbeing assessment, ecosystem health assessment, quality of life and natural resource availability - at the regional scale. Each of these assessment methods are tested using South East Queensland (SEQ) as a case study. It was selected because of its ecological and demographic diversity, its combination of coastal and land management issues, and its urban metropolitan and rural farm and non-farm communities. The applicability of each of these methods to regional assessment was examined using an evaluation criteria matrix, which describes the attributes of an effective method and the characteristics that make these methods useful for regional management and building community capacity to progress sustainability. We found that the methods tested failed to effectively measure progress toward sustainability at the regional scale, demonstrating the need for a new method for assessing regional sustainability.     

Empowering knowledge: Political leaders,education, and economic liberalization

Recent literature reports significant effects of political leaders in driving economic policies but does not provide an exhaustive answer as to why. This paper argues that educational background plays an important role in shaping leaders' ideas and beliefs, which in turn matter for policy making in the long run. Using a cross-country data covering 137 countries and regions over 1960–2005, the paper documents a robustly positive relationship between leaders educational attainment and faster liberal reforms, regardless of regime type. The effects are more salient for leaders who majored in economics, social science, and natural science. Moreover, the effects of education seem to be orthogonal to alternative channels such as partisan politics, geopolitical factors, and public opinions.     

Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don't, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them.Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth.The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy.     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.