Is it too late to stabilise the global climate?

Assessment of the feasibility of stabilising the global climate requires consideration of trajectories for emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This study presents a simple and robust analysis of feasible emissions trajectories. Consideration of feasible trajectories suggests that if the current pace of mitigation efforts is sustained, the likely outcome will be stabilisation at concentrations close to 500 parts per million. Such an outcome will imply a higher than 50 per cent probability of substantial damage from climate change and an enhanced risk of a catastrophic outcome.     

Is Peasantry Dead? Neoliberal Reforms,the State and Agrarian Change in Bangladesh

This paper focuses on three decades of agrarian reform policies and the resulting peculiarity of the development trajectory in Bangladesh. I interrogate the ways in which the reforms have led to a paradoxical situation consisting of partial protelarianization in attempting to promote a market‐based economy. I contend that the particular positioning of the state is central to understanding this dialectic between proletarianization and the persistence of small peasants amid a huge rush towards the formation of a capitalist market economy. I conclude that the partial nature of agrarian transformation that we now experience in Bangladesh may not be resolved in favour of a complete proletarianization of small peasants in the foreseeable future.     

Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?

This paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters, Brazil and Ukraine, influence the international price of maize. Our work focuses on each market's participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader. We find that the United States plays the largest role in price discovery, followed by Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. We also search for export thresholds and find that Ukraine's contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2.3 million tons is reached. No export thresholds were found for Brazil. Export thresholds for Argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships. We also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year.     

Crisis? What Crisis? The Normality of the Current Food Crisis

The 2005–8 food crisis was a shock to political elites, but in some respects the situation was normal. Food policies are failing to respond adequately to the squeeze on land, people, health and environment. Strong evidence of systems failure and stress, termed here New Fundamentals, ought to reframe twenty‐first century food politics and effort. Yet so far, international discourse is too often narrow and technical. The paper suggests that 2005–8 reinforced how the dominant twentieth century productionist policy paradigm is running out of steam. This assumed that producing more food would resolve social problems. Yet distortions in markets, access and culture remain. At national and international levels of governance, despite realization of the enormity of the challenge ahead, there is still a belief in slow incremental change.     

Young farmers’ support under the Common Agricultural Policy and sustainability of rural regions: Evidence from Lithuania

The present study examines the influence of young farmers’ support system including both direct payments for young farmers and rural development measures initiatives under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the sustainability of rural regions. The intentions and decisions taken by young farmers in Lithuania are analysed within the rural sustainability concept. The empirical analysis relies on the questionnaire survey. In order to disentangle the possible effects of the CAP support on the farming sustainability (as it is perceived by the young farmers), we consider payments for farm establishment and expansion along with support for advisory services. The results show that young farmers’ support system under the CAP has the strongest perceived effect on income support in Lithuania without significant differences across different groups of farmers. The effect on investments is significantly lower for crop farms if opposed to the other farming types. Still, the results also indicate that environmental awareness of Lithuanian farmers is rather low as the demand for such advisory services appeared to be relatively low. The relatively high demand for advisory services on the business plan preparation suggests low levels of business administration and marketing skills among the young farmers, which indicates the need for development of the social dimension.     

Is the agricultural industry spared from the influence of the Australian carbon tax?

The Australian agricultural sector provides food security for the nation and affects the livelihood of farmers and the development of rural communities. This sector has been uneasy about the Australian carbon tax scheme introduced in July 2012 although the government has exempted the agricultural sector from the scheme. By employing a computable general equilibrium model and an environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix, this article simulates the effects of different carbon tax policy scenarios. The modeling results show that all agricultural sectors will be affected negatively but to differing degrees. The household compensation policy will improve the performance of the poultry and fishing sectors, while having opposite effects in the other agricultural sectors. The inclusion of the agricultural industry into the carbon tax scheme will lead to a considerable further decrease in output, employment and profitability in the agricultural sector, and a significant further reduction in real GDP, but a much larger emission reduction.     

Are Agricultural and Developable Land Prices Governed by the Same Spatial Rules? The Case of Belgium

In this paper, we test whether farmland and developable land prices are governed by the same determinants (mainly urbanization). We estimate here quasi‐identical econometric equations for both agricultural and developable land markets, instead of the conventional approach of adding variables that capture the urban influence. Using data aggregated at the level of the 589 municipalities of a highly urbanized country (Belgium), we found that the same determinants enter these equations, with slight differences in parameter values: land prices decrease with distance to central business district (developable land: –2.7% per km; farmland: –2.5% per km), and increase with the population of the commune as well as with its demographic growth and with the average income of its inhabitants.     

Rural electrification in Cambodia: does it improve the welfare of households?

This study uses subsamples of socio-economic surveys from 2004 and 2011 to construct village panel data and apply the difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the impact of rural electrification on household consumption and children’s education in Cambodia at the village level. Conditional on the DID assumption and observed village and household characteristics, rural electrification increased household consumption by approximately 16.6%. This study also finds that higher-quintile households benefited more. Additionally, rural electrification increased boys’ years of schooling completed by 0.85 and girls’ years of schooling completed by 0.62. It also increased the probability of having ever been enrolled in primary school for boys by approximately 9.7% but did not increase the probability of having ever been enrolled for girls.     

What Can We Learn from Droppers and Non-adopters About the Role of Advice in Agricultural Innovation?

In this article we assess the diversity of sources of advice identified by 678 adopters, 295 non-adopters and 107 droppers (or dis-adopters, who have ceased or reduced the use) of agricultural innovations across 13 European countries. For most innovations, the volume and composition of advisory supports (e.g. public advisory services, farm business organisations, NGOs, research and development sector, other farmers), at the whole farm level were similar between adopters, non-adopters and droppers. However, there were significant differences in relation to specific innovations. Farmers adopting digital technologies, soil-improving cropping systems, and common management of natural resources identified more diverse sources when assessing innovations, suggesting that more diverse advisory support supported successful implementation. For new on-farm activities, non-adopters had more varied sources of advice than adopters. This demonstrates that non-adoption can be a well-informed decision. Droppers typically identified fewer sources of advice on an innovation than adopters, particularly in the later stages of the innovation process, suggesting that lack of advice impeded successful implementation. The findings suggest that public funding for advisory services could usefully target emergent gaps: to support the provision of up-to-date advice on topics to farmers who have difficulty accessing advice, and to prevent unnecessary dropping by supporting the implementation of innovations.     

Is the West really the best? Modernisation and the psychosocial dynamics of human progress and development

Scientific and political interest in measures of human progress and development is increasing, but the indicators are far from capturing all we need to know. They place Western liberal democracies at the leading edge of progress, and present them as models of development; Western nations typically occupy all but a few of the top 20 places in progress indices. However, indicators are measuring modernisation rather than optimal quality of life or well-being; modernity’s benefits are counted but its costs are underestimated. In particular, the measures do not adequately acknowledge the ‘psychosocial dynamics’ of human societies: the complex interactions and relationships between the subjective and objective worlds. Unless we pay more attention to these dynamics, we will not develop solutions which match in scale the problems they are intended to address. Indicators need to allow a transformation in our worldview and beliefs as profound as that which gave rise to modernity.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.     

Is the abandonment of traditional livestock farming systems the main driver of mountain landscape change in Alpine areas?

Agricultural land abandonment and the consequent natural forest regrowth in areas once cultivated has significantly transformed Alpine ecosystems and landscapes. In this paper, we estimated the loss of agricultural areas due to reafforestation in the Belluno Province (Eastern Italian Alps) and integrated socioeconomic indicators with topographical features to evaluate the drivers of this change. Land use mapping, obtained from photo-interpretation of aerial photographs and technical maps, was used to quantify changes in forest and agricultural areas (crops, meadows and pastures) during the period of 1980–2000. On average, the forest surface expanded by 21%, while the agricultural areas decreased by 40%. This loss increased in areas with steeper slope, which confirms that the areas that would be first abandoned are those that are less productive and more difficult to manage. The reafforestation rate was particularly strong in the north of the province, where the livestock sector experienced a dramatic decline. In light of this situation and using multiple regression models with a large set of socioeconomic and agricultural indicators, we found that the loss of agricultural areas in 69 municipalities was primarily counterbalanced by the maintenance of livestock farming. The loss of steeper agricultural areas was counteracted by traditional extensive systems; however, it was not counteracted by modern intensive systems, which has important implications because steeper areas have higher landscape and biodiversity values. In addition, tourism development had a positive, although smaller, effect on the maintenance of agricultural areas, while industry development had a negative effect. The results of this study suggest that efforts are needed to maintain a territorial network of traditional extensive farms to avoid further landscape deterioration in Alpine areas. Likewise, certain choices toward the economic development of local communities might have an impact on land conservation.     

Is the growth of regionalism as significant as the headlines suggest? Lessons from agricultural trade

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has motivated a significant number of ex post econometric studies investigating their agricultural trade impacts. The general conclusion is that RTAs increase members’ trade by as much as 150%, on average. In this article, we demonstrate that previous empirical work likely misrepresents the impact of RTAs because of considerable heterogeneity in the depth of economic integration pursued by these agreements. Contrary to previous studies, the results reveal that RTAs are not universally trade creating, and some agreements appear to provide very little benefit. “Deep integration agreements,” on the other hand, are largely responsible for the impressive agricultural trade flow increases reported in the literature. Testing the hierarchy of RTAs largely confirms the theory: the benefits of regionalism are an increasing function of the depth of economic integration.     

Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?

A slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices. In this article I decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity (TFP) components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices. Contrary to widely held perceptions, I find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector‐wide agricultural TFP, at least through 2006. If anything, the growth rate in agricultural TFP accelerated in recent decades. However, the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment. Accelerating TFP growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2% per year since the 1960s. Regionally, however, agricultural productivity performance has been uneven. These findings have important implications for the appropriate supply‐side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis.     

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well‐being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.     

Evaluating willingness to pay for the temporal distribution of different air quality improvements: Is China's clean air target adequate to ensure welfare maximization?

Stated preference analyses seeking to determine the public's value for air quality improvements often estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for days at a specified minimum quality threshold (e.g., days with clean air), but do not consider the temporal distribution of pollution levels below this threshold. This paper develops a choice experiment designed to evaluate WTP for a more complete distribution of air quality improvements, including the number of days per year at multiple air quality levels. The model is applied to a case study of air quality improvement in the core districts of Xi'an City, China. Results from a linearly constrained mixed logit model demonstrate that average household WTP for improving a lightly polluted, moderately polluted, heavily polluted, or severely polluted day to a clean air day is 7.42, 8.90, 13.06, and 24.28 RMB per year, respectively. These results show that WTP depends not only on the total number of clean air days, but on the total distribution of pollution levels across all days of the year. Results are directly relevant to the development of clean air policies in China, for which benefit estimates are currently unavailable.     

Public Policy in the 21st Century: Is Prairie Agriculture Becoming Like Any Other Industry? Does it Matter?

The question addressed in this paper is whether Prairie agriculture has become like any other industry. The implication is that a positive response would lead to the conclusion that it should therefore be treated like any other industry rather than being accorded the special status that it has enjoyed for more than a century
We show that, as net farm incomes have declined over the past 35 years, Prairie farmers have responded by seeking other (non-farm) sources of income. At the time of the 1996 census, net farm income accounted for only 31 percent of farm family income (down from 75 percent in 1967). By 1999, the contribution of net farm income was even lower than in 1996
In spite of the dwindling contribution of net farm income to farm family income, average farm family income in Saskatchewan has exceeded average provincial household income for all but two years between 1971 and 1998, Under these circumstances, it is necessary to ask why it is in the public interest to subsidize an activity which, in recent good times, produced 31 percent of the income of a subset of the population whose household incomes were 10–15 percent above the provincial average
Based on income levels, it is probably no longer necessary to accord farm families special status in the public policy arena. However, other policy considerations (immobility of resources, the role of agriculture in the rural economy, environmental considerations, food safety and security, for example) remain, differentiating agriculture from other industries     

Is the widespread use of urban land for cycling promotion policies cost effective? A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the case of Seville

Cycling promotion has without doubt been the most intensive policy seen in Seville in the 21 st century as far as the use of public land is concerned. In the current context, economic tools need to be applied to rigorously assess the efficiency and economic rationality of cycling infrastructure investments. This article provides a Cost-Benefit Analysis to estimate the economic and social returns on investments from the construction of a bicycle lane network in the city of Seville (Spain). This kind of studies tries to contribute to mitigating the degree of conflict associated with a land policy that breaks with the traditional status quo. The case study is especially relevant due to the successful public policy implemented in recent years to transform the Seville's urban mobility model into a sustainable system. Based on fieldwork with two survey campaigns conducted among the different cyclist profiles (private bicycle users and public bicycle sharing system users), we analyze two major effects: modal change and changes in journey time. Our robust findings, subjected to a sensitivity analysis, point to the remarkable economic benefits of the bicycle promotion policy in Seville, with significant savings in travel times, vehicle use and infrastructure maintenance, health, traffic accidents, and air pollution for both cyclists and society as a whole.