Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.     

Costly financial intermediation and excess consumption volatility

This paper documents the cyclical properties of financial intermediation costs and uses their dynamics to explain excess consumption volatility (ECV) differences across countries in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with housing market. I find that financial development levels have a limited role in explaining ECVs. Instead, the volatility of financial sectors plays the determinative role. Consistent with the data, the model finds higher ECVs in emerging countries. The paper also shows that if the US had the same intermediation cost structure as Turkey, deteriorations in the production and consumption following a financial shock would increase threefold.     

Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates

We study the properties of a GEI model with nominal assets, outside money (injected into the economy as in Magill and Quinzii (J Math Econ 21:301–342, 1992)), and multiple currencies. We analyze the existence of monetary equilibria and the structure of the equilibrium set under two different assumptions on the determination of the exchange rates. If currencies are perfect substitutes, equilibrium allocations are indeterminate and, generically, sunspot equilibria exist. Generically, given a nonsunspot equilibrium, there are Pareto improving (and Pareto worsening) sunspot equilibria associated with an increase in the volatility of the future exchange rates. We interpret this property as showing that, in general, there is no clear-cut effect on welfare of the excess volatility of exchange rates, even when due to purely extrinsic phenomena.     

Further empirical evidence on the forecasting of volatility with smooth transition exponential smoothing

Smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) uses a logistic function of a user-specified transition variable as adaptive time varying smoothing parameter. This paper empirically addresses three aspects of the use of STES for volatility forecasting. Previous empirical results showed the method performing well in comparison with fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models. However, those results related only to forecasting weekly volatility. In this paper, we address the use of STES for forecasting daily volatility. A second issue that we evaluate is the robustness of STES in the presence of extreme outlying observations. The third aspect that we consider is the use of trading volume within a transition variable in the STES method. Our simulation results suggest that STES performs well in terms of robustness, when compared with standard methods and several alternative robust methods. Analysis using stock return data shows that STES has the potential to outperform standard and robust forms of fixed parameter exponential smoothing and GARCH models. The results suggest the use of the sign and size of past shocks as STES transition variables, and provide no clear support for the incorporation of trading volume in a transition variable.     

Examining the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume: new evidence from an emerging economy

Using daily stock return data for individual stocks from an emerging economy, this article examines the relationship between return volatility and trading volume under the theoretical postulate of the mixture of distributions hypothesis. The results suggest that the contemporaneous trading volume as a proxy for latent information arrival to the market did not contribute to the removal of significant ARCH or Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects that are found in stocks at the first stage of the investigation. The same holds for the lagged volume except for one case. This, perhaps, suggests that the trading volume (contemporaneous or lagged) is not adequately conveying information to induce traders’ views of the desirability of trade and, therefore, points to the need for searching for other micro and macro variables to be used as potential proxy for information arrival to the stock market of the emerging economy.     

Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs

Summary. This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data. We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment.Received: 23 January 2003, Revised: 30 April 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D84, G12.We are grateful to Professors Mordecai Kurz, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Judd, Carsten Nielsen, Maurizio Motolese, Mark Garmaise, Jean-Michel Grandmont, Peter Hammond, Karl Shell, Jan Werner and participants of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) Conference and Stanford Institute of Theoretical Economics (SITE) Conference for many helpful suggestions. Correspondence to: H.-M. Wu     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

The information content of implied volatility in developed versus developing FX markets

This article predicts the daily movement of monthly foreign exchange (FX) rate volatility using a linear combination of a time-series model and implied volatilities from options. The focus is on analysing the FX volatilities in three developing economies (the Brazilian real (BRL), the Indian rupee (INR) and the Russian ruble (RUB)) against the US dollar (USD). The empirical exercise utilizes two time-series models, mixed data sampling (MIDAS) and GARCH. The analysis indicates that for both developed and developing economies the predictive power of MIDAS and that of GARCH is comparable. Further on in this article, we will ascertain whether the relationship between realized and implied volatility is fundamentally different in the case of developing economies from that among developed economies. Thus, we compare the pairs USD/BRL, USD/INR and USD/RUB against EURO/USD and USD/Japanese yen to determine the information content and predictive power of implied volatilities. Plots of the MIDAS coefficients show that the volatility is more persistent in developing economies than in developed economies.     

Co-evolution of firms and strategic alliances: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper reviews the analogies of evolution and co-evolution within a business context. Specifically it examines some of the essential underlying assumptions of these theories including the unit of change, the unit of selection; the mechanism of selection, and the ability to change an organisational form. The usefulness of the application of theories of both evolution and co-evolution to explain firm behaviour is examined. Empirical evidence from the UK fresh produce industry is presented to illustrate that both firms and strategic alliances evolve, co-evolve and are subject to selection at individual, dyadic and group levels simultaneously.     

Distribution of wealth and incomplete markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper analyses the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms’ productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, households have linear consumption functions and government imposes taxes on capital and labour incomes and equally redistributes the collected resources to households. The equilibrium distribution of wealth is explicitly calculated and its shape crucially depends on market incompleteness. With incomplete markets it follows a Paretian law in the top tail and the Pareto exponent depends on the saving rate, on the net return on capital, on the growth rate of population, and on portfolio diversification. The characteristics of the labour market crucially affects the bottom tail, but not the upper tail of the distribution of wealth in the case of completely decentralized labour market. The analysis also suggests a positive relationship between growth and wealth inequality. The theoretical predictions find a corroboration in the empirical evidence of United States in the period 1989-2004.     

Positive feedback trading and long-term volatility links: evidence from real estate markets of USA,Be/Lux and Switzerland

This article investigates the positive feedback trading strategies in the real estate markets of USA, Belgium/Luxembourg (Be/Lux) and Switzerland, linking these strategies with long-term volatility. The results are in favour of a positive feedback trading strategy which negatively influences investors' risk-return position on real estate markets.     

Child labor and household wealth: Theory and empirical evidence of an inverted-U

Some studies on child labor have shown that, at the level of the household, greater land wealth leads to higher child labor, thereby casting doubt on the hypothesis that child labor is caused by poverty. This paper argues that the missing ingredient may be an explicit modeling of the labor market. We develop a simple model which suggests the possibility of an inverted-U relationship between land holdings and child labor. Using a unique data set that has child labor hours it is found that, controlling for child, household and village characteristics, the turning point beyond which more land leads to a decline in child labor occurs around 4 ac of land per household.     

An information theoretic analysis of stock returns,volatility and trading volumes

Information theory is used to examine the dynamic relationships between stock returns, volatility and trading volumes for S&P500 stocks. This provides an alternative approach to traditional Granger causality tests when dealing with nonlinear relationships. The article highlights the dominant role played by trading volumes in all of these relationships – even in the return–volatility relation – and finds evidence of a market level feedback effect from index returns to the return–volatility relation at the stock level. The article also produces a number of stylized facts from an information theoretic perspective.     

Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones

The volatility trade-offs (i.e. the negative relationships between exchange rate variability and the interest rate differential) exhibited in the Krugman [Krugman, P. (1991). Target zones and exchange rate dynamics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 669–682.] model depend on the assumption of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). However, the bands for several economies in Latin America and Eastern Europe are substantially different from those within the European Monetary System (EMS), in that their parity relationship deviates from UIP and volatility trade-offs do not exist. This paper develops a graphical exposition and uses it to show that the degree of capital mobility may serve as a plausible vehicle to explain the empirical evidence found in Krugman's regime of exchange rate target zones. Based on a Fleming-type stochastic macro model, we find that when capital mobility is relatively low, exchange rate variability exhibits a positive relationship with the interest rate differential. This result can be regarded as a possible way of resolving the conflicting outcomes between Krugman's prediction and existing empirical observations.     

Market volatility and inequality in earnings: experimental evidence

We analyze the volatility of actions in experimental oligopoly markets. Can the volatility, measured as the total variation in actions, be predicted by inequality in earnings of the previous period? We examine two types of differentiated markets, Cournot and Bertrand, and two informational conditions. We find for both types of markets and regardless of the information available to firms that inequality in earnings is a major factor for explaining volatility. The more equal profits are distributed, the less volatility is observed.     

Foreign equity trading and emerging market volatility: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand

This paper documents a strong contemporaneous relationship between foreign equity trading and market volatility in Indonesia and Thailand. Although foreign selling accounts for only a small portion of daily trading, it has the highest explanatory power for market volatility in both countries. Trading within foreign and local investor groups is often negatively related to volatility. The findings are robust to different sub-periods and different measures for volatility and trading activities. We explore two economic explanations for the asymmetric effects of foreign and local investors.     

Foreign equity trading and emerging market volatility: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand

This paper documents a strong contemporaneous relationship between foreign equity trading and market volatility in Indonesia and Thailand. Although foreign selling accounts for only a small portion of daily trading, it has the highest explanatory power for market volatility in both countries. Trading within foreign and local investor groups is often negatively related to volatility. The findings are robust to different sub-periods and different measures for volatility and trading activities. We explore two economic explanations for the asymmetric effects of foreign and local investors.     

Modelling the relationship between future energy intraday volatility and trading volume with wavelet

Although the energy and stock markets are both characterized by volatility and liquidity, and there has been substantial research to explore the relationship between volatility and trading volume (TV) in stock markets, few researchers have investigated this relationship in energy markets. Moreover, studies that have explored this association within energy markets did not describe its nature or impetus. To redress this oversight, we investigate this relationship using intraday data from the oil and gas markets – the most liquid energy markets in the world. In this way, the current article extends the previous studies through the use of a frequency approach to propose an original analysis of the relationship between volume and volatility. More specifically, we employ a continuous wavelet transform to identify the lead–lag phase between volatility and volume. This framework supplants usual time series modelling, as it uses a measure of coherence for different frequencies and time-scales to capture further changes and time variation in the volume–volatility relationship. Our results provide supportive evidence for the well-known positive relationship between realized volatility and TV, thereby supporting the mixture distribution hypothesis. In particular, our results show that volume causes volatility only during ‘turbulent times’, while volatility causes volume during ‘good times’. Furthermore, there is no relationship between volume and volatility in the long term, due to the absence of noise traders and liquidity traders in the long run. These findings are helpful for investors and policymakers as they contribute to better forecast the TV and price volatility during turbulent and calm periods and over several investment horizons.     

Some evidence in the trading and pricing of equity LEAPS

This paper documents some evidence in the trading and pricing of equity Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAPS). The main findings on trading are that LEAPS open interest, trading volume, and put/call ratio are seasonal on a yearly basis possibly due to the impact of the “melding” process that is unique to equity LEAPS. This paper also finds that the Black–Scholes Option Pricing Model, in general, overprices or underprices out-of-the-money (OTM) or in-the-money (ITM) equity LEAPS calls, respectively, and the model tends to overprice when the options are very deep in-the-money (VDITM). Furthermore, the evidence indicates that the deviations of the Black–Scholes prices from the observed option market prices are more pronounced in equity LEAPS than in standard options, suggesting that the Black–Scholes Option Pricing Model is less well suited to the pricing of equity LEAPS than to the pricing of standard options.     

The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries

Immigrants are newcomers in a labor market. As a consequence, they lack host-country-specific labor market knowledge and other country-specific and not directly productive valuable assets affecting their relative bargaining position with employers. We introduce this simple observation into a search and matching model of the labor market and show that immigrants increase the employment prospects of competing natives. To test the predictions of our model, we exploit yearly variations between 1998 and 2004 in the share of immigrants within occupations in 13 European countries. We identify the impact of immigrants on natives׳ employment rate using an instrumental variable strategy based on historical settlement patterns across host countries and occupations by origin country. We find that natives׳ employment rate increases in occupations and sectors receiving more immigrants. Moreover, we show that this effect varies depending on immigrants׳ characteristics and on host country labor market institutions which affect relative reservation wages.