The great trade collapse and the Spanish export miracle: Firm‐level evidence from the crisis

We provide novel evidence on the microstructure of international trade during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession by exploring a rich firm‐level data set from Spain. The focus of our analysis is on changes at the extensive and intensive firm‐level margins of trade, as well as on performance differences (jobs, productivity and firm survival) across firms that differ in their export status. We find no adverse effects of the financial crisis on foreign market entry or exit, but a considerable increase in the export intensity of firms after the financial crisis. Moreover, we find that exporters were more resilient to the crisis than non‐exporters. Finally, while exporters showed a significantly more favourable development of total factor productivity after 2009 than non‐exporters, aggregate productivity declined substantially in a large number of industries in Spanish manufacturing. We also briefly explore two factors that might help explain the surprisingly strong export performance of Spain in the aftermath of the great trade collapse: improved aggregate competitiveness due to internal and external devaluation and a substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales at the firm level.     

Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

In 2007 a free trade area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study BFTA‐induced trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or more volume of exported goods and varieties, we study the structure of integration‐induced export growth in the Balkans. Given that no firm‐level trade data is available for the Balkans, we adopt the heterogeneous firm framework, which allows to decompose aggregate trade growth into intensive margin of trade and extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. Our empirical findings predict that the BFTA would primarily increase the export volume through a growing number of shipments (the extensive margin of trade) suggesting that the actual welfare gains from the trade growth in the Balkans might in fact be larger than predicted in previous trade studies. We also found that reducing variable trade costs leads to higher export growth rates compared to reducing fixed trade costs by the same percentage.     

ASEAN and China: Export Rivals or Partners in Regional Growth?

Rivalry in trade between China and its regional neighbours in ASEAN has become a major preoccupation for many regional policy‐makers. For these reasons, strengthening the basis of empirical evidence on regional trade relations is especially important, and this paper does so in two ways. Using very detailed historical trade data, we combine econometric and trade flow analysis to elucidate patterns of export competition and underlying comparative advantage for ASEAN and China. Our findings indicate that the potential exists for both export rivalry and more extensive trade complementarity, but so do many challenges for policy makers who seek to mitigate adjustment costs and facilitate long term efficiency. Our econometric results indicate that, in the short run at least, ASEAN and China are experiencing intensified export competition in prominent third markets such as Japan and the US. More extensive trade flow analysis reveals, however, that in the long run globalisation can accommodate export growth by all the economies of East Asia, if aggregate growth can be sustained to facilitate the structural adjustments necessary for an optimal regional division of labour.     

服务贸易出口对我国经济增长贡献的实证分析

本文以1985～2005年数据为样本,通过统计分析与计量经济分析,对服务贸易出口与我国经济增长间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：服务贸易出口与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,服务贸易出口促进了我国经济增长,服务贸易出口是经济增长的Granger原因。本文进一步分析了发展服务贸易,提高服务贸易出口对我国经济增长贡献度的政策和措施。     

Where Do Firms Export,How Much and Why?

The empirical finding that exporting firms are more productive on average than non‐exporters has provoked a large theoretical literature based on models such as Melitz ( 2003 ), where more productive firms are more likely to overcome costs associated with trade. This paper investigates how closely the productivity heterogeneity framework fits the data from a firm‐level survey that includes information on export destinations and firm characteristics such as productivity. We find a high degree of unpredictable idiosyncratic participation in export markets by firms and a relatively weak positive correlation between the extent of a firm's export market participation and its export sales. We find that a small number of standard gravity variables provide a close fit to the country‐level determinants of trade but that greater variation results in more difficulty in explaining firm‐specific factors driving exporting behaviour. We also illustrate some elements of the dynamics over time in firm exporting patterns by destination. We show that lagged exporting activity has a significant effect on a firm's current exporting profile.     

我国农机产品出口市场份额研究

我国农机产品出口贸易呈快速增长的趋势。采用恒定市场份额模型对我国农机产品出口进行分析,从而判断分析在我国农机产品出口中市场规模效应、市场分布效应和竞争力效应各自的作用及贡献。本文选择了11个我国农机产品出口的主要国家,采用1997-1998年、1999-2000年和2001-2002年三期的贸易额数据对我国农机产品出口市场进行分析,结果表明,我国农机产品出口的增加主要是由于农机产品竞争力提高引起的,市场规模的扩大对我国农机出口有着积极的作用,市场分布效应对农机出口的作用由负面作用转为正向作用。     

加工贸易与一般贸易对江西经济增长作用的比较研究

随着江西外向型经济的发展,一般贸易和加工贸易额都得到了快速扩大。利用出口弹性指标、贡献率指标以及增值率指标对比,分析加工贸易和一般贸易对江西经济增长的贡献,提出一般贸易的贡献高于加工贸易,加工贸易对经济增长的贡献还较小,但2006年后加工贸易对经济增长的作用加强。     

我国出口国(区)别分布及出口增长的影响因素

本文基于1997-2008年我国对25个主要贸易伙伴出口额等面板数据建立了6个贸易引力模型,筛选出了两国首都(城市)之间贸易平均里程等10个影响贸易流量及出口增长的因素,通过对比研究,发现不同因素对我国出口流量的国别分布以及出口增长有着不同程度的影响。同时,本文给出了某一年份我国对不同贸易伙伴的名义和实际出口增长潜力的测算方法。     

Barriers to Exporting: What are They and Who do They Matter to?

The international trade literatures on gravity modelling and firm‐level export behaviour have established that nontariff barriers are important impediments to international trade flows. In this paper, we provide fresh evidence on the actual barriers to exports firms face and how they vary with firm‐level characteristics. Our results indicate that the higher the export experience of firms the lower are the trade costs they face. These barriers are not related to other firm‐level characteristics, such as productivity and size, found by the literature to be associated with export market entry. Overall, these results suggest the existence of a process of learning to export whereby firms learn how to cope with export barriers through direct experience in export markets.     

基于CMS模型的中国对东盟机电产品出口贸易分析

本文运用恒定市场份额分析法(CMS),选取2001-2012年的相关数据,从产品和市场两个角度对中国向东盟出口机电产品的结构效应及竞争效应进行了实证分析,结果表明:竞争力效应是中国对东盟机电产品出口增长的主要原因,结构效应则贡献很小。在实证分析的基础上,笔者对如何优化我国机电产品出口贸易结构,增强我国机电产品市场竞争力提出了相关的建议。     

中国的出口潜力:总量测算、地区分布与前景展望——基于扩展引力模型的实证研究

通过考察2000-2008年间中国对120个贸易伙伴国(地区)的商品出口数据,基于扩展引力模型的面板数据计量方法,本文揭示了我国出口潜力的地区分布与历史演变特征,并测算了后危机时期中国的出口潜力。研究发现,中国的对外贸易自2007年开始转入"出口不足"状态,特别是对亚洲近邻的市场拓展相对滞后。展望后危机时期,在全球经济保持稳步回升的条件下,中国在2010-2015年间潜在的出口增速可达31.1%。综合出口潜力的规模指标与成长性指标,我们认为,后危机时期中国出口市场结构调整的总体导向应是:在保持欧美传统市场份额基本稳定的前提下,将市场重心逐渐转向出口潜力较大的亚洲和拉美新兴经济体,进一步密切中非经贸合作关系,使其成为未来出口市场多元化的潜在对象。     

Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, even though in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm‐level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and ‘tradable’ services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, even though services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as – and in some cases more innovative than – manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of ‘technological’ innovative activity, even though services innovations more often take a ‘non‐technological’ form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non‐exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.     

Local User-Producer Interaction in Innovation and Export Performance of Firms

This paper studies the effects of local market attributes on local firms’ exports of innovations. Our starting point are three common hypotheses. First, innovations are a major determinant for the export performance of firms. Second, user–producer interaction is an important factor for successful innovations. Third, user–producer interaction is most efficient in close proximity. Taken together this would mean that intense local user–producer interaction increases exports. This reasoning contradicts a main proposition in international management that overt local responsiveness may be hampering export chances of a firm. In order to generate global innovations, an international firm should look at the world market instead, for instance by identifying the global common denominator of national preferences. Yet, many local innovations have become globally successful. This paper investigates the question to what extent local demand is capable of inducing innovations that are export effective. We utilize data from the German innovation survey of 4,786 firms in the manufacturing and service industries. In this survey firms were asked about the sources of their innovation and their export activities. We find evidence that the export orientation and the domestic demand structure stimulate export success.     

中国文化贸易结构和贸易竞争力分析

基于文化产品和服务进出口数据,对中国文化贸易结构、国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数、显示性比较优势指数的分析表明,尽管中国是文化产品出口第一大国,但文化贸易结构不合理,文化产业总体国际竞争力较弱且发展不平衡;中国文化贸易的竞争优势主要体现在手工艺品、设计、视觉艺术品和新媒体这些外围的文化产品中,具有核心内容的影视媒介、音乐媒介、出版物及版权、文化休闲娱乐服务等文化出口比重低、竞争力弱。     

推动广东出口增长的因素分析

国际贸易理论分别从比较优势和收益递增两个方面对出口贸易发生的原因进行了合理的解释。运用出口贸易增长的动因模型,选取时间序列数据,尝试对影响广东出口贸易增长的动因进行实证分析与研究。实证研究结果表明,比较优势和收益递增两个因素都较好地解释了广东的出口贸易增长情况,其分析结果也显示,在广东的对外贸易中,收益递增是推动出口增长的主要原因。     

Export Survival in Global Production Chains

In this paper, we examine the survival capacity of trade relationships in cross‐border production chains. Our main contribution is to show that there are differences in the probability of export interruption between intermediate and final stages along the global value chain, finding a lower sensitivity of intermediate goods to the increasing competition from lower‐income countries. In addition, the paper also makes a methodological contribution by using time‐discrete duration models with product‐country random effects to control for unobservable heterogeneity and by including interactions in the model, in order to identify the sources of these differences. Our estimates show that variables such as EU membership, export experience, product and market diversification, initial trade value, destination market size, geographical proximity and economic proximity reduce the likelihood of export failure more for intermediate than for final goods, being the differential impact particularly higher for the two first variables. These results would suggest that factors that reduce uncertainty and search costs and increase trust and reliability among production partners are particularly relevant for intermediate stages, fostering the probability of remaining an active member of global production chains.     

Do foreign workers reduce trade barriers? Microeconomic evidence

This paper provides evidence that foreign workers reduce firms’ trade costs and thus increase the probability that firms export. This informs both the literature on trade costs and the microeconomic literature on firms’ export behaviour. We identify the nationality of each worker in a large sample of German establishments and relate this to the exporting behaviour of these establishments. We allow for the possible endogeneity of an establishment's workforce by instrumenting the share of foreign workers with the regional distribution of foreign workers in the wider labour market. We find a significant effect of worker nationality on exporting which is not driven by the industrial, occupational or locational concentration of migrants. The effect is much stronger for senior occupations, who are more likely to have a role in exporting decisions by the establishment. The relationship is also stronger when we consider exports to particular regions and workers from these regions, consistent with a gravity model in which trade flows from country i to j are a function of migrants from j in i.     

Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports: Micro evidence from Belgium,France, Germany and Spain

This paper uses detailed micro data on services exports at the firm–destination–service level to analyse the role of firm heterogeneity in shaping aggregate services exports in Belgium, France, Germany and Spain from 2003 to 2007. We decompose the level and the growth of aggregate services exports into different trade margins paying special attention to firm heterogeneity within countries. We find that the weak export growth of France is at least partly due to poor performance by small exporters. By contrast, small exporters are the most dynamic contributors to the aggregate exports of Belgium, Germany and Spain. Our results highlight the importance of firm heterogeneity in understanding aggregate export growth.     

东亚汇率变动能否为我国出口贸易带来竞争优势

本文通过对中国出口贸易增长与汇率波动的实证分析确定两者之间的数量关系,探讨汇率变化能否为中国出口贸易带来竞争优势。本文用因子分析法确定出主成分,再进行回归建模,并考察汇率指数项的贡献率,认为汇率波动对中国贸易出口的影响有限,中国没有因此带来出口贸易竞争优势,那种认为依靠汇率贬值来获得出口竞争优势的看法与事实不符。中国外贸出口的推动力和竞争优势主要来自国内经济体制改革以及外向型产业投资的迅速增长。     

“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易潜力研究——基于扩展引力模型对浙江省数据的分析

本文研究我国与"一带一路"沿线国家的出口贸易潜力,并着重从省市层面进行分析,以出口大省浙江为例,运用扩展引力模型,实证检验了浙江省对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口影响因素和出口贸易潜力。研究表明:出口贸易受经济规模、人口数量、距离、自由贸易协定安排和沿海国家条件等因素的显著影响;浙江省与18个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力成熟型关系,与13个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力成长型关系,与23个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力待开发型关系。基于此,本文为继续推动"一带一路"建设提出相关对策建议。