Social capital, innovation and growth: Evidence from Europe

This paper investigates the interplay between social capital, innovation and per capita income growth in the European Union. We model and identify innovation as an important mechanism that transforms social capital into higher income levels. In an empirical investigation of 102 European regions in the period 1990-2002, we show that higher innovation performance is conducive to per capita income growth and that social capital affects this growth indirectly by fostering innovation. Our estimates suggest that there is no direct role for social capital to foster per capita income growth in our sample of European Union countries.     

Food consumption and economic development in Turkey and European Union countries

This study investigates the relationship between food consumption and economic development in Turkey and European Union countries. Differences in food diets are analysed by using data on per capita consumption in caloric terms based on the period from 1970 to 2000. The cluster analysis is employed to derive country grouping on the basis of similarities in dietary structure in the 1970 and 2000. Existence of a trend towards a common European diet is explored with Beta convergence. The empirical results show that per capita food consumption is becoming less responsive to changes in income and appears to be reaching a ceiling in the majority of EU countries and Turkey. However, the share of animal products in food consumption diet is low and income expenditure elasticity of animal products is higher with 0.84 values in Turkey than that in European countries in 2000. There are great differences in dietary structure between Turkey and the European Union. Differences also exist between European Union countries; however, despite these differences there is a general tendency for dietary structure to become increasingly similar across the majority of European Union countries. The result also supports the absence of a convergence towards a common diet if Turkey joins the European Union.     

Effects of the customs union with the European Union on the market structure and pricing behaviour of the Turkish manufacturing industry

Turkey established a Customs Union with the European Union in 1996. This study aims to analyse the effect of that Customs Union on the market structure and the pricing behaviour of the Turkish manufacturing industry for the period 1994 to 2000. To that end, the price cost mark-up equation of 12 manufacturing industry sectors is estimated using the import and export ratios with European Union countries together with control variables. A second equation is also estimated for the concentration ratio index, taking the trade ratios with European Union countries as explanatory variables. The estimation method is panel data covering eight years and 12 cross-section units. Estimation outcomes indicate that the export and import ratios of trade with European Union countries have a negative relation with the price cost mark-up in the manufacturing sector. It is concluded that increased imports with union countries have created a positive wealth and efficiency effect upon the Turkish manufacturing industry, due to falling price cost mark-ups. Similarly, the concentration ratio equation estimation outcomes indicate that increased imports with union countries have induced a decline in the concentration ratio for the manufacturing industry during the period in question.     

The impact of population on CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions: evidence from European countries

This paper analyses the impact of population growth on CO₂ emissions in European Union countries. Traditionally, researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth. In this study population is treated as a predictor in the model, instead of being included as part of the dependent variable (per capita emissions), thus relaxing the above-mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity. We also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification. The sample covers the period 1975–1999 for the current European Union members. Our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old EU members, the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified. The different impact of population change on CO₂ emissions for the current EU members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the EU.      

Financialisation and Real Investment in the European Union: Beneficial or Prejudicial Effects?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialisation and real investment for non-financial corporations using panel data composed of 27 European Union countries over 19 years (1995 to 2013). On the one hand, financialisation leads to a rise in financial investments, diverting funds from real investments (‘crowding out’ effect); on the other, pressures from shareholders to intensify financial payments restrict the funds available for new real investments. We estimate an aggregate investment equation with the traditional variables (lagged investment, profitability, debt, cost of capital, corporate savings and output growth) and two further measures of financialisation (financial receipts and financial payments). The findings demonstrate that financialisation has damaged real investment in European Union countries, mainly through the channel of financial payments, either by interest or dividend payments. It is also found that the prejudicial effects of financialisation on investment were more severe in the pre-2007 crisis period. It is concluded that financialisation contributed to a slowdown of real investment by 1 to 8 per cent in the full and pre-crisis period, respectively. During the pre-crisis period, financialisation was the main driver of the slowdown of investment in the European Union.     

Price convergence in the European Union – What has changed?

This paper investigates price convergence in European Union countries using disaggregated price level indices in the period 1999–2016. Our results show that prices of both tradable and nontradable goods had a significantly lower dispersion in 2016 than in 1999. The convergence was faster in the case of countries with price level below the average, which can be interpreted as catching-up. However, further analysis shows that most prices converged only up to 2008. While prices of transport equipment continue to converge across the European Union, several durable consumption categories show price divergence after 2008. We attribute this to the drop in international trade of durable products due to increasing inflation and exchange rates volatility following the global financial crisis. From the monetary policy perspective, the existing price-level gaps, shown in our study, may pose a risk of higher inflation, especially in catching-up economies.     

Growth in transition economies: A trade policy perspective1

This paper examines the influence of trade liberalization on GDP growth during the transition from communism. The level of trade liberalization is found to raise the growth rate, particularly in the early part of the transition and for the countries nearest to the European Union. For the remaining countries and for the later transition period, the positive influence of trade reform on growth requires the negative effect of the interaction between trade reform and privatization to be taken into account. Even with the interaction terms the effect of trade liberalization is not statistically significant in the later transition period.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

This paper revisits the effect of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on the extent of business cycle synchronization across its member states. A dynamic latent factor model is used to identify the ‘regional’ effect of the euro area on output growth and inflation dynamics across European countries. The results of variance decomposition analysis confirm that both output growth and inflation tended to be more synchronized among European countries during the run-up to the EMU, but there is no strong evidence to support the argument that the ‘regional’ effects prevailed after 1999.     

The effects of public deficits on money growth in the European Union

The impact of government debt on the money supply has been studied for different countries, with an emphasis on developing countries and the U.S. This topic becomes especially interesting in European Union countries that have high public deficits and low inflation rates. It is also very relevant in the monetary union, with a European central bank controlling monetary policy and introducing monetary measures for all the member countries. The main goal of this paper is to analyze if there is any relationship between public deficits and monetary growth in the European Union. The conclusions presented in the previous literature are ambiguous. Some studies concluded that there is little evidence that government debt influences money in some of the member countries.     

Europe's income convergence and the latest global financial crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on economic growth and convergence across European countries from 1973 to 2012. Employing cross-sectional and dynamic panel data techniques, the results show that the global financial crisis has brought a greater absolute convergence rate rather than divergence, affected richer members more heavily and, presumably, allowed less developed members to recover more quickly. We find evidence that creating the European Union has contributed toward economic growth and convergence; meanwhile, no similar evidence is found concerning the European Monetary Union. Moreover, we present evidence that both the average output per capita and the rate of convergence during the financial crisis fell around 7%.     

Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in the European Union

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in the European Union. A panel data analysis for the period 1981 to 1995 is applied in order to estimate the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and CO₂ emissions in ten selected European countries. The analysis shows important disparities between the most industrialised countries and the rest. The results do not seem to support a uniform policy to control emissions; they rather indicate that a reduction in emissions should be achieved by taking into account the specific economic situation and the industrial structure of each EU member state.     

The effects of integration on regional disparities: Convergence, divergence or both?

This paper offers an explanation for the coexistence of convergence across countries and the lack thereof at the regional level in the European Union. The model shows that, even if it accelerates growth and brings convergence across countries, the intensification of international knowledge spillovers due to more cross-country interaction may exacerbate within-country regional disparities, if regions with different specialization do not benefit evenly from the exchange of knowledge. The empirical evidence supports the implications of the model. In particular, the data show that regions specialized in advanced sectors at the beginning of the sample period became more similar in terms of per capita income, while regions specialized in traditional sectors lagged.     

European integration, productivity growth and real convergence

This paper derives a stochastic endogenous growth model to investigate the impact of European Union (EU) integration on convergence and productivity growth. The theoretical model implies both temporary and permanent positive effects of the integration process. The empirical part of the analysis uses structural break tests and data envelopment analysis to examine the accession process of five recent members to the EU15. The results show (i) endogenously identified accession dates as structural breaks, (ii) improved rates of productivity growth after accession over and above the Union benchmark level, and (iii) increased pace of overall growth due to capital accumulation as a result of institutional features of the Union such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. These findings support the theoretical model, implying that economic integration is beneficial for member countries, especially from a long-run perspective, and Cohesion and Structural funds help the new members catch up with the core-EU members’ standard of living.     

Zero population growth rate and eldercare hours: Are both optimal for some European Union countries?#

As zero population growth rates have existed for approximately 30 years in many European Union countries, one wonders whether this is optimal in these countries, considering differences in consumer preferences and wages. In this paper, we construct a framework to examine this issue, in particular incorporating both eldercare and immigration. Our theoretical and empirical analyses show that zero population growth rates are optimal, population growth rates and eldercare hours are determined separately, and eldercare hours may be optimal because of added support with public long-term care spending of each country.     

Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration

We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for most of the 1990s.     

Similarity in trade structures,integration and catching‐up1

In this paper, we look at the role of export composition in the growth process, considering how increased similarity in trade structure among countries can induce catching‐up in income levels in a group of countries in transition. We analyze the sectoral export patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) by comparing them to those of the current members of the European Union (EU), focusing on countries’ specialization as suppliers for the EU market, and we assess whether similar export patterns foster the catching‐up process of the CEECs. Our main result is that similarity in export composition has a positive, significant and non‐linear impact on catching‐up, and seems to be driven by the growth of the main export market and delocalization of production more than by other factors.     

Transitional Progress and Business Challenges

Eight Central European and Baltic countries have joined the European Union in May 2004. Transitioning economies need to develop a business environment with a healthy financial sector to realize economic growth. This paper uses two classification methods, the discriminant analysis and taxonomic measure, to investigate the possibility of the South Eastern European and Commonwealth of Independent transitional countries to develop an enterprise and business environment that is compatible with the newest European Union (EU8) members. This paper found that the EU8 countries are correctly classified as having transitioned successfully in their business development. Bulgaria and Croatia have transitioned closely to the EU8. However, Romania, Ukraine, and the Commonwealth of Independent countries are not close to the EU8 in achieving a compatible business environment.      

Technology,employment and the business cycle in post-transition countries of the EU

This article analyses the importance of technology and non-technology shocks in the business cycles of European Union post-transition countries. Different assumptions of New Keynesian and Real Business Cycle theory are tested. The results demonstrate that a non-technology shock is more important in explaining business cycles in post-transition countries, although a technology shock is not trivial. The technology shock cannot replicate basic business cycle facts observed in the data: it produces a low or negative correlation between employment and GDP, and a strong negative correlation between labour productivity and employment. Technology and non-technology GDP components are analysed in the transition and post-transition period. The results show a non-technology shock was the dominant source of business cycles both during and after the transition period.     

Neoliberalism,EU and the Evaluation of Policies

Changes in GDP growth, unemployment and inflation are utilized as indicators of the transition of nineteen OECD countries from Keynesian to neoliberal policies in the period 1960 to 2007. The paper then shows how evaluations of this change and of the success of the European Union can vary depending on the value basis of the observer.     

The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures

This paper analyses how the functional components and sub-components of government expenditures are affected by fiscal consolidations. A fixed-effects estimator is employed over a panel of 15 European Union countries during the period 1990–2012. The results show that spending on public services increases during fiscal consolidations, while spending on defence, public order, health, education and social protection is significantly cut. A more disaggregated analysis proves that fiscal consolidations are harmful for important social expenditures, in particular, for those related to citizens’ safety, health assistance, social protection and investment in human capital. This evidence is even stronger in a particular group of countries, known in the literature as PIIGS. Hence, fiscal consolidations can have important implications on the living standards of the more economically vulnerable citizens.