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1.
This paper studies the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in promoting central bank independence (CBI). While anecdotal evidence suggests that the IMF has been playing a vital role for CBI, the underlying mechanisms of this influence are not well understood. We argue that the IMF has ulterior motives when pressing countries for increased CBI. First, IMF loans are primarily transferred to local monetary authorities. Thus, enhancing CBI aims to insulate central banks from political interference to shield loan disbursements from government abuse. Second, several loan conditionality clauses imply a substantial transfer of political leverage over economic policy making to monetary authorities. As a result, the IMF through pushing for CBI seeks to establish a politically insulated veto player to promote its economic policy reform agenda. We argue that the IMF achieves these aims through targeted lending conditions. We hypothesize that the inclusion of these loan conditions leads to greater CBI. To test our hypothesis, we use a recently available dataset on IMF programs that includes detailed information on CBI reforms and IMF conditionality for up to 124 countries between 1980 and 2012. Our findings indicate that targeted loan conditionality plays a critical role in promoting CBI. These results are robust towards varying modeling assumptions and withstand a battery of robustness checks. 相似文献
2.
This article examines if the observed favourable impact of conditionality in IMF programmes on revenue performance arises from changes in tax rates. It does so by studying the experience of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. When changes in tax rates are controlled for, the impact of revenue conditionality (and especially conditionality on revenue administration reform) not only remains strong on value-added tax collection but also, in contrast to earlier results, it contributes to significant improvements in income tax collection. 相似文献
3.
Takatoshi ITO 《Asian Economic Policy Review》2007,2(1):16-49
This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997–1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post‐Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been “softer” in its approach to the post‐Asian crisis countries. 相似文献
4.
The fundamental mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to ensure global financial stability and to assist countries in economic turmoil. Although there is a consensus that IMF-supported programs can have a direct effect on the labor market of recipient countries, it remains unclear how IMF participation decision and conditionalities attached to IMF loans can affect the unemployment rate of borrowing countries. Using a world sample of countries from 1980 to 2014, we investigate how lending conditional programs of the IMF affect the unemployment rate. Our analyses account for the selection bias related to, first, the IMF participation decision and, second, the conditions included within the program. We show that IMF program participation significantly increases the unemployment rate of recipient countries. Once we control for the number of conditions, however, we find that only IMF conditions have a detrimental and highly significant effect on the unemployment rate. There is evidence that the adverse short-run effect of IMF conditions holds robust in the long-run. Disaggregating IMF conditionality by issue area, we find adverse effects on the unemployment rate for four policy areas: labor market deregulation, reforms requiring privatization of state-owned enterprises, external sector reforms stipulating trade and capital account liberalization, and fiscal policy reforms that restrain government expenditure. Our initial results are found to be robust across alternative empirical specifications. 相似文献
5.
Axel Dreher 《Journal of Economic Policy Reform》2013,16(3):225-238
Abstract In theory, the IMF could influence fiscal and monetary policy via several channels, among them advice to policy makers, conditionality, and the moral hazard it induces with the borrowers. This article tries to disentangle those effects empirically. Using panel data for 98 countries over the period 1975–2000 it analyzes whether IMF involvement indeed influences fiscal and monetary policy in program countries. There is evidence that participation in IMF Standby and Extended Fund Facility arrangements improves economic policy. Money disbursed and the degree to which a program is implemented does not have any systematic influence. The same is true for future availability of resources as measured by exhaustion of a country’s quota with the Fund. The final section discusses policy implications. 相似文献
6.
Silvia Marchesi 《Research in Economics》2018,72(2):263-276
In this paper I relate Bank–Fund performance to their willingness (or ability) to communicate. I find evidence that a Bank–Fund simultaneous loan is associated to an increase in economic growth and that such effect is diminished by factors preventing full communication, such as the degree of Bank-Fund competition and the salience of informational asymmetries. Politically motivated loans seem—at least to some extent—stimulate more IMF–WB interaction, which turns out to be associated to a better country’s performance. 相似文献
7.
The empirical growth literature has established that institutional quality is a deep determinant of economic growth. We examine whether institutional quality in low income countries converges to the level witnessed in high income countries, or whether they are trapped in convergence clubs that stagnate or even deteriorate over time. Using the log-t-test suggested by Phillips and Sul (2007), we find evidence of multiple equilibria in institutional quality, with several countries stuck in poor quality institutions traps. We further find that per capita incomes of some of the developing countries are also stuck in low-level traps. Finally, using bivariate probit estimations, we establish that poor institutional traps are major determinants of low income traps. These results indicate that these countries are caught in a double trap where their incomes are stuck in low-level traps from which it is difficult to escape, because the institutions that enable growth are also stuck in low-quality traps. 相似文献
8.
Ulrich Kaiser 《Economics of Innovation and New Technology》2013,22(7):573-582
This paper seeks to explain why more than half of the German service sector firms that introduce a product innovations do not advertise their new or markedly improved product. One part of the explanation is that they do not need to advertise because they are closely related to their customers anyway, and another part of the explanation is that product innovation and product innovation advertising are strategic substitutes. 相似文献
9.
Miroslav Verbi? 《Ecological Economics》2009,68(5):1316-1328
When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Vol?ji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries. 相似文献
10.
The paper examines the relation between countries' state of the environment (defined as acceptable, marginal or unacceptable, according to values of ambient accumulation of pollutants) and stage of economic development (defined as low, middle and high income), using the concentration of sulphur dioxide in urban areas and dissolved oxygen in rivers. Univariate and ordered probit models are estimated for air and water quality. The results indicate that the probability of having acceptable environmental quality in a country increases with respect to the examined pollutants as the country moves to a higher state of economic development. 相似文献
11.
A growing body of literature scrutinizes the harmful consequences of capital flight to offshore financial destinations. While financial integration is a well-known facilitator of capital flight, we shed light on an under-appreciated determinant—the availability of an IMF bailout. Expanding on previous literature analyzing moral hazard in the context of IMF programs, we introduce a socially even more destructive mechanism that we label the ‘crash for cash’ effect. We argue that by drawing on the IMF, elites can benefit from accumulating excessive debt to extract rents and hide these safely in offshore financial destinations while steering their countries into financial disaster. To test this mechanism, we show that elite wealth in offshore bank accounts has a first-order impact on a captured government’s willingness to draw on a lender of last resort. From a policy perspective, our analysis underscores the importance of closing financial loopholes to mitigate the devastating socio-economic effects of sophisticated financial engineering in a financially integrated global economy. 相似文献
12.
短期债务具有流动性好、财务灵活性强、名义利率低等一系列优势,但过量短期债务的使用会给企业带来较大的财务风险。鉴于我国上市公司债务融资存在的严重短期化现象,应针对这种短期化债务融资的弊端与成因,提出改变不良状况的学术见解和解决问题的方略。 相似文献
13.
此次金融危机来自于以美元为中心的国际货币体系,这再次使人们必须正视一个问题,那就是国际货币体系的改革.当前的国际货币体系存在着诸多问题,做出一些实质上的改变是必要的.在后危机时代,我们应该反思如何进行货币体系改革. 相似文献
14.
文章首先评估了欧债危机的发展现状,包括欧洲危机的演进历程、潜在冲击以及对欧洲银行业造成的挑战;其次剖析了当前应对欧债危机的各种政策选择,包括利用EFSF/ESM机制、IMF的参与、发行欧洲债券以及由ECB担任最后贷款人,并分析了各种政策选择面临的制约因素;最后展望了欧债危机的三种可能前景:财政一体化、欧元区解体以及维持现状,并指出财政一体化前景的概率最高。 相似文献
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16.
建立我国地方债制度的客观条件与实施策略构想 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
建立地方债制度是我国进一步深化财政体制和政府融资体系改革亟待解决的重大现实问题.目前建立地方债制度既有利也存在诸多不利条件.对此,可本着稳妥、谨慎的原则,从地方债的发行、管理及相关的配套改革等方面构建我国地方债制度,并针对发行地方债可能出现的负效应制定相应的解决措施. 相似文献
17.
本文在国外资本结构理论的基础上，将西方公司与中国公司的资本结构特点进行比较，从内因和外因两个方面解释了中国上市公司负债比率偏低的现象。 相似文献
18.
资本结构的产品市场竞争理论认为,在特定竞争模型下债务融资结构能够反映企业的产品市场竞争策略,并认为短期债务增加加剧了产品市场竞争,长期债务缓和产品市场竞争。进一步的实证分析得到短期债务融资与产品市场竞争程度是显著负相关的,长期债务融资与产品市场竞争程度是显著正相关的,能够支持产品市场竞争理论。同时,数据分析发现,企业规模小、资产利用效率高和收益好也是促使企业采取激进竞争手段的影响因素。 相似文献
19.
地方政府债务规模影响因素及化解对策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
李永刚 《中南财经政法大学学报》2011,(6)
不断蔓延的欧洲债务危机,加重了各界对国家主权债务问题的担忧.而近期中国各级地方政府的债务问题,同样引人关注.尽管我国法律法规对地方政府举债限制比较严格,但这并不意味着地方政府债务规模合理.事实上,地方政府通过公开或隐蔽渠道,直接或间接地举借了大量债务.现在,地方政府债务风险在某些局部已经显现,潜在的风险也不可忽视.本文在分析中国地方政府债务规模后,提出了化解地方债务风险的对策. 相似文献
20.
负债融资与投资规模的关系研究是财务理论研究的重要课题之一.现代财务理论基于委托—代理理论和信息不对称理论的考虑,认为负债融资影响到企业的投资规模.负债融资、负债期限通过不同的传导机制影响着企业的投资规模.本文采用2008-2010年我国制造业上市公司数据,在控制对投资有影响的销售收入、托宾Q和现金流量等变量的基础上,实证检验了负债融资、负债期限与企业投资规模的关系及其影响机制.检验结果表明,负债融资总体上与投资规模负相关;然后,又按企业利润总额的标准差作为衡量企业风险的大小进行了分组检验,结果显示,短期负债、长期负债对投资规模的影响不尽相同,高风险企业随着负债的增加与低风险企业相比减少投资的幅度较小.这些结论对我国当前调整经济结构、制定宏观经济政策提供了有益启示. 相似文献