Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage

One reason for the recent asset price bubbles in many developed countries could be regulatory capital arbitrage. Regulatory and legal changes can help traditional banks to move their assets off their balance sheets into the lightly regulated shadows and thus enable regulatory arbitrage through the securitized sector. This paper adopts a global vector autoregression (GVAR) methodology to assess the effects of regulatory capital arbitrage on equity prices, house prices and economic activity across 11 OECD countries/regions. A counterfactual experiment disentangles the effects of regulatory arbitrage following a change in the net capital rule for investment banks in April 2004 and the adoption of the Basel II Accord in June 2004. The results provide evidence for the existence of an international finance multiplier, with about half of the countries overshooting U.S. impulse responses. The counterfactual shows that regulatory arbitrage via the U.S. securitized sector may enhance the cross-country reallocation of capital from housing markets towards equity markets.     

The deregulation of capital markets in France

This paper investigates how the deregulation of French capital markets affected corporate investment in the 1980s. Access to public financial markets may be less important in countries that have traditionally relied on institutional investors to finance their corporate investment projects. This should be true for France where, contrary to the US, banks and government agencies have always been involved in firms’ long term activities. In this study, French firms are categorized based on their ownership structure and trading characteristics. Two investment models are augmented with measures of corporate liquidity in order to test the role of internal funds on investment. Empirical results show that only small French firms trading on the secondary stock market have to rely on liquid assets to finance their capital expenditures. French firms with strong bank ties avoid this constraint since they are allowed to maintain higher debt levels.     

The role of parent firms in business groups’ internal capital markets

Using a unique dataset of unconsolidated financial statements, we investigate the investment and financing policies of parent firms in South Korea's business groups over the period 2003–2016. Parent firms add to their equity-stake holdings substantially each year to support affiliated firms’ capital expenditures. Parent firms finance their equity-stake investment primarily with external funds. These tendencies are more pronounced if parents sit high in the pyramidal chain or are central to controlling other group firms and if parents belong to large business groups. Overall, parent firms prioritize their role as capital raisers and distributors for affiliated firms, and business groups’ internal capital markets are supported by external finance.     

A bottleneck capital model of development

A simple augmentation of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model allows it to match observed transitions by initially poor economies. A high-convexity installation cost directly dampens investment demand for a first capital input. The resulting scarcity acts as a bottleneck, strongly dampening demand for investment in a complementary capital input as well. The match to observed transitions holds both for narrow and broad interpretations of capital. In either case, the bottleneck capital's share of factor income need not be large.     

Intangible capital and the investment-q relation

The neoclassical theory of investment has mainly been tested with physical investment, but we show that it also helps explain intangible investment. At the firm level, Tobin’s q explains physical and intangible investment roughly equally well, and it explains total investment even better. Compared with physical capital, intangible capital adjusts more slowly to changes in investment opportunities. The classic q theory performs better in firms and years with more intangible capital: Total and even physical investment are better explained by Tobin’s q and are less sensitive to cash flow. At the macro level, Tobin’s q explains intangible investment many times better than physical investment. We propose a simple, new Tobin’s q proxy that accounts for intangible capital, and we show that it is a superior proxy for both physical and intangible investment opportunities.     

Regional capital mobility in China: 1978-2006

We examine cross-region capital mobility in China and track how the degree of mobility has changed over time. The effects of fiscal and redistributive activities of different levels of government in China on private capital mobility are taken into account. Our results indicate that there was a significant improvement in capital mobility over time in China, particularly for private capital in the more developed regions. The central and provincial governments, via their taxation, spending, and transfers, loosen the relationship between private saving and investment and appear to promote capital mobility, particularly for less developed regions. There are considerable differences between more and less developed regions in terms of the degree of capital market integration and the improvement in capital mobility over time. The results have important policy implications on global re-balancing as well as regional development gap and risk-sharing within China.     

Historical social capital and contemporary private investment choices

This paper investigates the impact of historical commercial social capital on contemporary private investment choices. We use unique data on shanghui, which represented the most important institutionalization of commercial social capital in China's financial industry in the late Qing Dynasty, to find that the establishment of shanghui is associated with a significant increase in residents' private risky asset investment today. The impact originates mainly from (i) an increase in local available investment finance, (ii) individuals' higher financial knowledge and literacy, and (iii) individuals' higher trust level and risk-taking abilities in the financial market. From a historical perspective, this study partially explains the current private investment choices and household financial investment imbalance in China.     

Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 116,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000–2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that an active management of working capital may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.     

农村金融发展影响农民收入增长的机制研究

本文运用1986-2007年的数据实证研究了我国农村金融发展与农民收入之间的相关性关系及影响机制.本文的研究表明,农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本、农村劳动力的转移与农民收入之间存在着显著的正相关性;农村金融规模和农村金融结构与农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本和农村劳动力转移都是正相关的,但是农村金融效率与农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本和农村劳动力转移却呈负向关系;我们认为,农村金融资金由于种种原因导致的配置低效率是阻碍农民收入增长的主要因素.     

Bank capital and equity investment regulations

This paper uses an intermediation model to study the efficiency and welfare implications of both banks' minimum required capital–asset ratio and the regulation that limits, and in some countries forbids, banks' investments in the equity of nonfinancial firms. There are two sources of moral hazard in the model: one between the bank and the provider of deposit insurance, and the other between the bank and an entrepreneur who demands funds to finance an investment project. Among other things, the paper shows that capital regulation improves the bank's stability and can also be Pareto-improving. Equity regulation is never Pareto-improving and does not increase the bank's stability.     

The effects of asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders in an open economy

This paper assesses the effects of asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders in an open economy with access to international capital markets. Information asymmetry and agency costs arise because only borrowers can costlessly observe actual returns from production. Agency costs increase the cost of external finance and lower steady state investment, capital and output. They also affect the business cycle and the central bank’s response to shocks. The long-run effects of agency costs are exacerbated in an open economy and their impact is influenced by the degree of access to international capital markets. The results thus highlight the importance of incorporating credit market interactions into open economy macroeconomic models.     

Saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in the US and Japan

This paper points out that a high long-run correlation between saving and investment is better interpreted as reflecting the operation of a country's intertemporal budget constraint rather than as an indicator of capital mobility. Inferences about capital mobility can instead be made from the divergent short-run dynamic responses of saving and investment to shocks. Using post-war quarterly data for the US and Japan, the paper assesses the characteristics of saving and investment behavior under different regulatory environments. It finds mixed evidence of changes in the short-run dynamics of saving and investment that suggest increased capital mobility in the 1980s.     

Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income

This paper analyzes optimal linear and non-linear taxes on capital and labor incomes in a life-cycle model of human capital investment, financial savings, and labor supply with heterogenous individuals. A dual income tax with a positive marginal tax rate on not only labor income but also capital income is optimal. The positive tax on capital income serves to alleviate the distortions of the labor tax on human capital accumulation. The optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is lower than that on labor income if savings are elastic compared to investment in human capital, substitution between verifiable and non-verifiable inputs in human capital formation is difficult, and most investments in human capital are verifiable so that education subsidies can directly reduce the tax wedge on learning. Numerical calculations suggest that the optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is substantial.     

Government venture capital and cross-border investment

We use data on venture capital investments from 26 countries from 1998–2013. We investigate the following questions: Do domestic government sponsored venture capital funds augment or curtail domestic private venture capital funds from cross-border investment? Do government sponsored venture capital funds attract or repel foreign private venture capital investment? The results show that a preponderance of mixed-structured over pure-structured government venture capital investment has a crowding-in effect overall: it attracts domestic and international private venture capital to the domestic venture capital market while simultaneously increasing total private venture capital investment. In contrast, a preponderance of pure-government over mixed-government venture capital fund investment repels foreign private venture capital investment (has a crowding out effect). We find that both these effects are more pronounced for domestic rather than foreign private venture capital and that the attraction effect is stronger than the repulsion effect.     

Intertemporal capital budgeting

This paper analyzes the optimal capital budgeting mechanism when divisional managers are privately informed about the arrival of future investment projects. Consistent with field study evidence, an optimal allocation mechanism can include a stipulation that a capital request for discretionary investment will be declined with positive probability in the period after a significant investment was made even though this is ex post suboptimal. The model derives a number of empirical predictions regarding capital budgeting and the investment of financially constrained firms.     

Crucial silences: When accountability met PFI and finance capital

During recent years, a wide spectrum of research has questioned whether public services/infrastructure procurement through private finance, as exemplified by the UK Private Finance Initiative (PFI), meets minimum standards of democratic accountability. While broadly agreeing with some of these arguments, this paper suggests that this debate is flawed on two grounds. Firstly, PFI is not about effective procurement, or even about a pragmatic choice of procurement mechanisms which can potentially compromise public involvement and input; rather it is about a process where the state creates new profit opportunities at a time when the international financial system is increasingly lacking in safe investment opportunities. Secondly, because of its primary function as investment opportunity, PFI, by its very nature, prioritises the risk-return criteria of private finance over the needs of the public sector client and its stakeholders. Using two case studies of recent PFI projects, the paper illustrates some of the mechanisms through which finance capital exercises control over the PFI procurement process. The paper concludes that recent proposals aimed at “reforming” or “democratising” PFI fail to recognise the objective constraints which this type of state-finance capital nexus imposes on political process.     

Intangible capital,volatility shock,and the value premium

This paper extends the canonical, neoclassical investment‐based asset‐pricing model through the incorporation of intangible capital and the formulation of a joint productivity distribution with economic uncertainty shocks at the firm level. The distinctive evolutionary dynamics of intangible capital as opposed to that of physical capital mitigate the negative impact of temporary uncertainty shock on production and serve well to explain the value premium with modest assumptions. The value premium is unconditionally positive, but the realized value spread plummets to negative after major transient second‐moment shocks, for example, the Loma Prieta Earthquake and the 9/11 terrorist attack.     

The determinants of venture capital funding: evidence across countries

This paper analyses the determinants of venture capital for a sample of 21 countries. In particular, we consider the importance of initial public offerings (IPOs), gross domestic product (GDP) and market capitalization growth, labor market rigidities, accounting standards, private pension funds, and government programs. We find that IPOs are the strongest driver of venture capital investing. Private pension fund levels are a significant determinant over time but not across countries. Surprisingly, GDP and market capitalization growth are not significant. Government policies can have a strong impact, both by setting the regulatory stage, and by galvanizing investment during downturns. Finally, we also show that different types of venture capital financing are affected differently by these factors. In particular, early stage venture capital investing is negatively impacted by labor market rigidities, while later stage is not. IPOs have no effect on early stage venture capital investing across countries, but are a significant determinant of later stage venture capital investing across countries. Finally, government funded venture capital has different sensitivities to the determinants of venture capital than non-government funded venture capital. Our insights emphasize the need for a more differentiated approach to venture capital, both from a research as well as from a policy perspective. We feel that while later stage venture capital investing is well understood, early stage and government funded investments still require more extensive research.     

Firm-level implications of early stage venture capital investment — An empirical investigation

We analyze the impact of venture capital finance on growth and innovation of young German firms. On the basis of statistical matching procedures we confirm findings that venture-funded firms have a higher number of patent applications than those in the control group. However, these are obtained even before the venture capitalists' investment, hence venture capitalists choose firms with demonstrated innovative output. After investment, the number of firms' patents does not differ significantly anymore, however their growth rates are significantly larger. This suggests that the higher innovativeness of venture-funded firms is due to the selection process of the venture capitalist prior to the funding rather than to the venture funding itself. Venture capitalists seem to focus rather on commercialization of existing innovations and growth of the firm.     

Accurate minimum capital risk requirements: A comparison of several approaches

In this paper we estimate, for several investment horizons, minimum capital risk requirements for short and long positions, using the unconditional distribution of three daily indexes futures returns and a set of short and long memory stochastic volatility and GARCH-type models. We consider the possibility that errors follow a t-Student distribution in order to capture the kurtosis of the returns’ series. The results suggest that accurate modelling of extreme observations obtained for long and short trading investment positions is possible with an autoregressive stochastic volatility model. Moreover, modelling futures returns with a long memory stochastic volatility model produces, in general, excessive volatility persistence, and consequently, leads to large minimum capital risk requirement estimates. Finally, the models’ predictive ability is assessed with the help of out-of-sample conditional tests.