What drives the banks' diversification decision? A dynamic nonlinear panel data approach

This paper empirically determines the drivers of functional diversification decision for 365 banks set in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over 1988–2015. For this purpose, we use a dynamic nonlinear panel data model. Our findings reveal that both market share and financial intermediation stratify the diversification decision for the whole MENA sample. Splitting the sample shows that the risk‐adjusted profitability and the loan loss provision ratio exert a major influence over the diversification indicator for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks, whereas the net interest margin ratio, the bank market share, and financial intermediation are the major drivers of the strategic decision for the remaining non‐GCC banks.     

Do regional trade agreements increase trade? Empirical evidence from the Asia–Pacific region

This article examines the effects of regional trade agreements. The augmented gravity model of international trade is used to test for trade creation and diversion in the context of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. The results of the estimated model indicate that trade has increased among the members of AFTA and APTA but not among the AANZFTA members. Differences in the levels of development appear to have a significant impact on trade flows, suggesting that there can be no general presumption about the extent of trade creation and trade diversion.     

Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests

This paper revisits the dynamics of unemployment rate for 29 OECD countries over the period of 1980–2013. Numerous empirical studies of the dynamics of unemployment rate are carried out within a linear framework. However, unemployment rate can show nonlinear behaviour as a result of business cycles or some idiosyncratic factors specific to labour market (Cancelo, 2007). Thus, as a testing strategy, we first perform Harvey, Leybourne, and Xiao (2008) linearity unit root test and then apply the newly ESTAR nonlinear unit root test suggested by Kruse (2011). This test has higher power than conventional unit root tests when time series exhibits nonlinear behaviour. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence in favour of unemployment rate stationarity for 25 countries. For robustness purpose, we have also used panel unit root tests without and with structural breaks. The empirical results show that unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected, when taking into account the cross-sectional and structural break assumptions. Thus, unemployment rate is expected to return back to their natural levels without executing any costly macroeconomic labour market policies by the OECD’s governments.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? Evidence from sequential break and panel data models

Using sequential trend break and panel data models, we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen OECD countries. With individual country tests, we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries. The results are more striking with the panel data model. We can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries. The non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross-section variation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Governance infrastructure and indebtedness of African countries: Do regional blocs matter?

Motivated by the intermediating role of good institutions in enabling growth via external debt financed investment and the touted promise of regional integration for Africa's growth prospect, we use data on 37 countries, over the period 2002–2010, to explore the governance institutions—external indebtedness nexus in Africa, at the regional bloc level. We find a robust negative relation between governance institutions and external indebtedness in East & Horn of Africa, Central Africa and Southern Africa; and unclear relationships in North and West Africa regions. Importantly, these baseline results are robust to the consideration of debt write-offs, natural resource rents, and endogeneity. Further, we find that geographic, economic and cultural factors of proximity, intra-regional activity, shared official language, legal origin and dominant religion, largely explain the commonality of Africa's regional blocs of countries. These and other results of the study can support potential external debt management strategy that leverages effective governance institutions and enhanced regional economic integration.     

Large shareholders and firm value: Are high-tech firms different?

This paper explores the relationship between ownership structure and firm value in firms listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The results of the estimations, taking into account simultaneity and reverse causality, show that the relationship between ownership concentration and firm value differs across firms belonging to the sector of innovative technologies and more ‘mature’ firms. The results give support to the hypothesis that ‘mature’ firms with higher ownership concentration are likely to perform better than firms with more dispersed ownership. In contrast, in high-tech companies, with large share of knowledge related activities, higher ownership concentration is associated with lower firm value. This effect is robust to various alternative specifications.     

Employer preferences,collective agreements and the Australian resources sector: a paradox of limited commodification?

There is a commonly held view that firms in high‐wage/skill‐intensive sectors will tend to provide wages and working conditions that are above market‐clearing levels. This article empirically examines this claim by analysing the content of all collective agreements concluded in the resource sector in Australia after the enactment in 2006 of the Workplace Relations Amendment (Workchoices) Act. This legislation gave employers unprecedented ability to place downwards pressure on employee entitlements. In the resource sector, however, the quantitative results indicate that firms maintained, in the main, substantive standards but used extensively key regulatory provisions to gain an unprecedented level of control over both functional and numerical flexibility.     

Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence

We investigate whether recently high and consequently rapidly decreasing U.S. house prices have been justified by fundamental factors such as personal income, population, house rent, stock market wealth, building costs, and mortgage rate. We first conduct the standard unit root and cointegration tests with aggregate data. Nationwide analysis potentially suffers from problems of the low power of stationarity tests and the ignorance of dependence among regional house markets. Therefore, we also employ panel data stationarity tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependence. Contrary to previous panel studies of the U.S. housing market, we consider several, not just one, fundamental factors. Our results confirm that panel data unit root tests have greater power as compared with univariate tests. However, the overall conclusions are the same for both methodologies. The house price does not align with the fundamentals in sub-samples prior to 1996 and from 1997 to 2006. It appears that the real estate prices take long swings from their fundamental value and it can take decades before they revert to it. The most recent correction (a collapsed bubble) occurred around 2006.     

What are the main explanations of occupational diseases and accidents at work in the agricultural sector? A panel analysis for Italian regional data

The aim of this paper is to investigate the causes of occupational diseases and accidents at work (ODA) in the Italian agricultural sector. To this end, we proceed with a two-stage analysis of Italian regional data for the period 1976–2004. The first phase of the analysis shows that in the Italian agricultural sector productivity Granger-causes ODA, and not vice versa. The results of the econometric estimates in the second stage of the analysis show that an increase in “productivity pressure” (associated with an increase in production rhythms) will produce, in the long run, an increase in accidents on less serious ODA (or temporary ODA); the same effect will not be observed on the more serious ODA (or permanent ODA). We verify how pro work legislation reduces ODA and how this effect is strengthened in the long-run. In addition, we observe that in the long-run the increase in the “pressure on workers” (associated with a high unemployment rate and a high probability of being fired) is the main cause of the increase in less and more serious ODA.     

Predictability in sovereign bond returns using technical trading rules: Do developed and emerging markets differ?

The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in each class. Empirical results show that (i) investing in sovereign bond markets is predictable, based on the buy-sell signals generated by trading rules, with the predictability of the emerging Asian markets being significantly higher than those of the advanced markets; (ii) the predictability is generally higher when the US tightens its monetary policies or undergoes recession or a financial crisis; (iii) two-thirds of sovereign bond markets have a higher predictability when we use a machine learning algorithm to determine the best trading rule strategy; and (iv) the predictability of a sovereign bond market is higher when the economy has a less effective government, lower regulatory quality, lower degree of financial openness, higher political risk, lower income and faster real money growth. Our results suggest that shocks originating from US monetary policy or economic conditions could have a considerable spillover effect on sovereign bond markets, particularly the emerging Asian markets.     

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit loss aversion – the displeasure from suffering a loss is larger than the pleasure enjoyed from an equivalent‐sized gain – and that expectations are important in determining what is perceived as a loss. Recent research suggests that disappointing results in sporting fixtures relative to prematch expectations play an important role in triggering domestic violence (Card and Dahl, 2011), consistent with the idea of loss aversion around expectations‐based reference points. This paper seeks to investigate whether such behaviour is exhibited by football fans in Glasgow by looking at the relationship between match outcomes relative to expectations and levels of domestic violence using a data set that contains every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. Whilst we find that when the ‘Old‐Firm’ Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play there are large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the outcome of the match), in other matches disappointing results relative to expectations are not linked to increased domestic violence, except when those matches occur at the very end of the season where the title is still being contended.     

Urban effects on participation and wages: Are there gender differences?

This paper estimates participation and wage equations using panel data from the United Kingdom to explore gender differences in urban wage and participation premiums. The results suggest a small but economically significant urban participation premium for women but none for men. Results from the wage estimations suggest that after controlling for sample selectivity, observed and unobserved heterogeneity, the urban premium is larger for women. This wage premium is also larger for married or cohabiting women relative to others. There is also evidence of higher urban returns to experience for men and lower urban wage depreciation for both men and women.     

Does taxation on harmful products influence population health? Evidence from Africa using the dynamic panel system GMM approach

Products such as tobacco and alcohol are known to be deleterious to human health. Tobacco use for instance, causes over eight million deaths annually worldwide. This has necessitated the imposition of taxes on such harmful products aimed at reducing their demand and hence ensure enhanced population health. However, while the effects of such taxes on deaths related to the consumption of these products have been given much attention, very little attention has been given to how these taxes enhance overall population health beyond these related deaths. Using tobacco tax as a proxy for taxation on harmful products and life expectancy as a proxy for overall population health, this study, examines the effect of taxing harmful products on population health in 38 African countries from 2008–2018. The system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) regression is employed as the empirical estimation technique. The findings of the study show that, taxing harmful products enhances population health both in the short-run and long-run periods. The implication is that, governments, especially those in Africa, can use taxation on harmful products to improve population health even beyond deaths related to the consumption of these products.

     

Geometry or poetry? Issues of methods and techniques in regional research

This article begins with the assumption that the research and study of geographical, historical, socio-economic and cultural factors of a local community are prerequisites for intervention or developmental policies. Based on the views of Descartes and Hamann, it then goes on to look at the suitability of the methods, tools and techniques a researcher needs to use today in order to get a complete picture. A positive approach of social phenomena claims that social structures decisively affect an individual’s thought and action, and therefore focuses on the study of external factors. In contrast, an interpretative approach aims at understanding the meanings and motives that govern an individual’s life and behavior. The author concludes that research on both macro and micro levels are necessary for the understanding of social phenomena in a local society and the use of methodological pluralism (both quantitative and qualitative methods) is necessary for effective research as it takes into consideration the weight of history and allows the understanding of those factors which govern people’s lives and determine their behavior and interaction.     

Licensing agreements as signals of innovation: When do they impact market value?

This paper explains the performance outcomes of markets for technology. It examines whether, and in what context, licensing agreements function as signals of innovativeness that influence investors' evaluation of public companies and if they are consistent ex post the announcement. Joining the literature on markets for technology and signalling theory, it distinguishes the outcomes related to the expectation and the confirmation of the signal, while investigating the context in terms of a company's analyst coverage. This distinction is addressed based on an empirical strategy that draws on a sample of 99 companies (2006–2012) and relates the investing community's reaction to both abnormal stock market returns in the day of the announcement and to Tobin's q one year after. The results show neither immediate nor ex post effects for outward agreements, and negative immediate and ex post effects for inward agreements, which are muted for companies with extensive analyst coverage. They thus suggest that inward licenses are relevant negative signals and that the value of signals is maintained across time horizons. Our theory development introduces analyst coverage as a contingency under which licensing agreements represent a weaker signal. Our research thus warns managers against publicly announcing their licensing strategies.     

Measuring regional inequality: to weight or not to weight?

Measuring regional inequality: to weight or not to weight? Spatial Economic Analysis. When estimating regional inequality, many economists use inequality indices weighted by regions’ proportion of the national population. Although this approach is widespread, its adequacy has not received attention in the regional science literature. This paper proves that such an approach is conceptually inconsistent, yielding an estimate of interpersonal inequality among the whole population of the country rather than an estimate of regional inequality. Nevertheless, as a measure of interpersonal inequality, such an estimate is very rough (even misleading) and does not always have an intuitive interpretation. Moreover, population-weighted inequality indices do not meet the requirements for an adequate measure of inequality.