Regime shifts in European real interest rates

Previous research, using data from 1961 to 1986, has found that the average value of the U.S. real interest rate was subject to occasional jumps caused by external shocks, but between these shocks the average was essentially constant. We have extended this analysis to four major European economies over a sample period that includes the 1990s. For each of the countries, evidence was found in favor of a small number of regime shifts, apart from which the average level of the real rate remained stable. We thus conclude that, like the United States, European real interest rates have generally been stable, only shifting in response to occasional external shocks. JEL no. C5, E4     

Sectoral transformation and labour-market flows

This paper examines the pattern of sectoral transformation thathas occurred in the United Kingdom in the post-war period anddocuments the flows of workers that have occurred between industrialand services sectors and the non-employment that has resulted.It then examines what consequences sectoral transformation hashad for wages and unemployment, both at the aggregate and theindividual level. It concludes by examining the policy implicationsof its findings.     

Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output

We study the impact of shocks to different types of government spending on the sectoral composition of output for a panel of EMU member countries. We find that fiscal shocks lead to an increase in the relative size of the nontraded sector, with the impact varying across the different spending categories. There is typically no significant impact on the level of production in the tradables sector but the level of imports increases and the level of exports declines in most cases. Overall, the results show that fiscal shocks matter not only for aggregate variables but also for the sectoral composition of output. The sectoral output results are consistent with previous work concerning the impact of fiscal shocks on the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontradables.     

Sectoral asymmetries and a social-welfare interpretation of Hukou

The Hukou system's restriction of Chinese internal migration is controversial. This paper models internal migration in a dual economy and assesses the social welfare consequences of the Hukou system. It contrasts the effects of absolute prohibition of migration with the mere exclusion of migrants from certain services such as health care and education. Asymmetries between the rural and urban sectors mean that optimality may require different levels of utility in the two sectors. The existence of a floating population, however, is inconsistent with an optimal labor allocation.     

Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production

The object of this paper is to study the relationship between the border effect and the geographic concentration of production. We explain this relationship through the home market effect and test the robustness of this explanation by using an analysis that considers the European single market. A sectoral gravity equation is estimated with different econometric estimators; in particular, we discuss a recently suggested estimator for log-linear CES models. Overall, our findings suggest a steady relationship between the border effect and the concentration of production. Furthermore, the analysis of concentration through a synthetic index provides us with valuable insights into the structure of the European industry.     

Sectoral Productivity Growth and R&D Spillovers in the Netherlands

This paper assesses empirically whether R&D spillovers are important and whether they originate from domestic or foreign activities. Data for eleven sectors are used to explain the impact on total factor productivity of R&D by the sector itself, by other Dutch sectors and by foreign sectors. We find that both domestic and foreign R&D are significant for the Dutch economy. The elasticity of total factor productivity with respect to R&D is approximately 37% for R&D by a sector, 15% for R&D by other Dutch sectors and 3% for R&D by foreign sectors. Our findings suggest moreover that more R&D speeds up the adoption of foreign technologies. Thus, even for a small open economy as the Netherlands, promoting investment in R&D is appropriate as it both stimulates adoption and generates spillovers.     

Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation

This paper analyzes the movements of tradable goods prices in Japan. The import price indices and the export price indices are matched with the domestic wholesale price indices at the most detailed level available for Japan, and the pricing behavior in the yen appreciation period (1985–1995) is examined. In the import-side analysis, we investigate how far the price movements under currency appreciation deviate from the law of one price. We find that internal–external price differentials have surprisingly expanded for most of the products since 1985. For a number of commodities, the import prices do not decline as far as the exchange rate appreciates, and the domestic wholesale prices do not decrease as far as the import prices decline. Although the expanded price gaps cannot necessarily be interpreted as a result of deliberate trade barriers, they suggest that some sort of handicap is imposed on imported goods and the large fraction of rent generated by the yen appreciation is intercepted in the middle. In the export-side analysis, the relationship between the globalization of firms' activities and export pass-through is investigated. Our cross-sectional regression analysis indicates that the export path-through rates tend to be low when the value added ratios of foreign production of Japanese firms are high. Low export pass-through under currency appreciation is often interpreted as a result of firms' attempts to keep their foreign market share, but the globalization of firms' activities may be another important factor in lowering the pass-through.J. Japan Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 611–641. Department of Economics, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108, Japan.     

Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data

Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. JEL no. E3, F23     

Market Power,Productivity and Sectoral Labour Shares in Europe

Open Economies Review - The stability of the labour share of income is a fundamental feature of many macroeconomic models. Empirically however, the labour share varies considerably across countries...     

Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.     

贵州茅台的高利润之谜

近来,贵州茅台酒似乎有点烦.几年来,公司以预收款充利润的做法,今年继续上演,再次遭遇市场质疑之声.据贵州茅台2009年一季度财报显示,公司有近四成的利润,是来自于预收账款确认为收入.如此巨额的预收款,在令市场惊羡之余,茅台酒的成长性也再度受人关注.     

Sectoral shift in antebellum Massachusetts: A reconsideration

But no man, who can have a piece of land of his own, sufficient by his labor to subsist his family in plenty, is poor enough to be a manufacturer, and work for a master. Hence, when there is land enough in America for our people, there can never be manufacturers to any amount of value. Benjamin Franklin, 1760¹     

中国农村劳动力迁移过程中的部门选择与性别差异

基于最近针对农村迁移劳动力的抽样调查数据,本文应用Multinomial Logit模型对中国农村迁移劳动力就业过程中的部门选择行为展开经验分析,并且在此基础之上对农村迁移劳动力部门选择过程中的性别差异进行分解,以研究农村迁移劳动力就业部门之间的性别歧视。主要研究结论为:工作搜寻渠道和个人人力资本状况(特别是教育水平)对农村迁移劳动力的部门选择存在显著的影响;而家庭和迁出地等特征变量对其部门选择的影响较小;同时,虽然农村迁移劳动力在部门选择过程中存在显著的性别差异,但是其性别差异主要来自于个体特征变量之间的差异,纯粹性别歧视并不显著。本文的研究结论有助于加深对中国经济转型过程中农村劳动力迁移微观行为机制的理解,同时认为加强农村迁移劳动力的人力资本投资与建立和完善现代化的劳动力市场中介组织是推动中国二元经济快速转型、和谐发展的关键所在。     

创新服务型盈利模式:中国券商盈利模式的战略选择

2002年以前,得益于行业的垄断性和高成长性,我国券商一直保持着20%以上的较高利润率。但到了2002年,券商开始出现整体亏损,2003年,在市场持续走低的背景下,券商行业性亏损势头并未得到有效遏制。表面上看,券商亏损的原因主要在于市场低迷,然而根源却是传统的单一盈利模式已对券     

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector.A slightly different version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 16–19, 2003 in Quebec City, Canada. The research reported in this paper is partially funded by a grant from the Institute for Global Economic Affairs at Marquette University.     

Retail profit margins in Japan and Germany

Retail Profit Margins in Japan and Germany. — This study compares the determinants of retail profit margins in Japan and Germany. Although several studies consider the peculiarities of the Japanese society and its economic structure, the comparison in this study is the first systematic, empirical analysis of the consequences of these characteristics for Japanese retail profit margins. For this purpose, two extensive data sets are used and a mark-up relationship is tailored to examine differences in Japanese and German retail profit margins. The empirical outcomes indicate that small firms can survive more easily in Japan than in Germany. This explains the abundance of small stores in Japan.     

The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece

This paper estimates the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for Greece. We calculate the effect directly, using sectoral national accounts data, which permits estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the tradeables and nontradeables sectors. Our results suggest that it is difficult to produce one estimate of the BS effect. Any particular estimate is contingent on the definition of the tradeables sector and the assumptions made about labour shares. Moreover, there is also evidence that the effect has been declining through time as Greek standards of living have caught up on those in the rest of the world and as the non-tradeables sector within Greece catches up with the tradeables.