Equity valuation in a changing institutional climate: evidence from multinational utilities

The transformation of U.S. utilities from purely domestic to multinational enterprises commenced in 1992 with the passage of The Energy Policy Act (EPAct). In response to the liberalized regulatory climate, 29 U.S. utilities have diversified their holdings through the acquisition of foreign utilities, many of which are located in emerging market countries. This study analyzes the impact of international diversification on the profitability and valuation of U.S.-based multinational utilities during the years 1996-2000. In order to control for the effects of aggregate economic and regulatory changes, purely domestic utilities are also included in the sample. The empirical tests are conducted utilizing an earnings-and-book value model. Compared to purely domestic utilities, multinational utilities report lower absolute and relative rates of profitability, exhibit higher levels of systematic risk and trade at higher market-to-book ratios. Taken together, these results suggest investors may be systematically overpricing the equities of U.S.-based multinational utilities. A further finding of this paper is that accounting information explains a lower percentage of the variation in equity prices for multinational utilities relative to their domestic counterparts.     

An Analysis of the Relation between the Stewardship and Valuation Roles of Earnings

In this paper, we seek a deeper understanding of how accounting information is used for valuation and incentive contracting purposes. We explore linkages between weights on earnings in compensation contracts and in stock price formation. A distinction between the valuation and incentive contracting roles of earnings in Paul [1992] produces the null hypothesis that valuation earnings coefficients (VECs) and compensation earnings coefficients (CECs) are unrelated. Our empirical analyses of the relations between earnings and both stock prices and executive compensation data at the firm and industry levels over the period 1971–2000 rejects Paul's [1992] hypothesis of no relation. We also document an increasing weight over time on other public performance information captured by stock returns in the determination of cash compensation. Specifically, we find that the incentive coefficient on returns is significantly higher in the second of two equal sample subperiods relative to the incentive coefficient on earnings.     

On the relevance of earnings components in valuation and forecasting

This paper articulates the links between relevance of an earnings component in forecasting (abnormal) earnings and its relevance in valuation in a nonlinear framework. The analysis shows that forecasting relevance does not imply valuation relevance even though valuation irrelevance is implied by forecasting irrelevance. Firstly, I consider an accounting information system where earnings components “add up” to a fully informative earnings number. Secondly, I analyze two accounting systems where a “core” earnings component is the relevant earnings construct for valuation and the second earnings component is irrelevant but may be predictable and relevant in forecasting other accounting items. I find that dividend displacement effect on earnings and the dynamics of individual earnings components are critical in this analysis.     

The Relation between Returns and Earnings: Evidence for the UK

This paper presents an empirical study of the explanatory power of annual earnings figures for annual stock returns using UK data. The analysis is performed on a sample of companies, with varying year-ends, over the period 1969–1990. The research exploits Ohlson's recent theoretical contributions to the study of the valuation relevance of accounting information, and it complements a study by Easton and Harris (1991) on US data. Similar to the results of Easton and Harris, the results for the UK provide consistent evidence that both earnings levels and earnings differences have significant explanatory power for security returns. However, unlike Easton and Harris, the evidence from individual year regressions suggests that changes in earnings rather than the level of earnings may be more important in explaining security returns in the UK.     

The relationship between size,book-to-market equity ratio,earnings–price ratio,and return for the Hong Kong stock market

In this paper, we investigate the relation between stock returns and β, size (ME), leverage, book-to-market equity ratio, and earnings–price ratio (E/P) in Hong Kong stock market using the Fama and French (FF) [J. Finance 47 (1992) 427] approach. FF find that two variables, size and book-to-market equity, combine to capture the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns associated with β, size, leverage, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios. In this paper, similar to previous studies in Hong Kong and US stock markets, we find that β is unable to explain the average monthly returns on stocks continuously listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the period July 1984–June 1997. But three of the variables, size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios, seem able to capture the cross-sectional variation in average monthly returns over the period. The other two variables, book leverage and market, are also able to capture the cross-sectional variation in average monthly returns. But their effects seem to be dominated by size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios, and considered to be redundant in explaining average returns when size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios are also considered. The results are consistent across subperiods, across months, and across size groups. These suggest that the results are not driven by extreme observations or abnormal return behavior in some of the months or by size groups.     

Regulatory changes in the electric utility industry: Investigation of effects on shareholder wealth

In 1992, the regulatory environment for electric utilities changed dramatically with enactment of the Energy Policy Act, mandating increased competition in this formerly monopolistic industry. The results of our study suggest that these regulatory changes in the electric utility industry and the opening of transmission lines to outsiders had negative and significant effects on stock values for the overall sample of firms examined. The basic results indicate that the movement toward greater competition dissipates economic rents associated with the previously held monopolistic situations. Multivariate analysis indicates that firms with greater levels of nuclear assets and higher earnings per dollar of assets prior to the regulatory actions suffered greater negative abnormal returns than other firms in the sample. Additionally, firms in a more competitive environment prior to regulatory changes had less negative abnormal returns. Results also show utility firms are riskier after deregulation with an increase in market risk of 48.88% and in firm specific risk of 23.66%. Overall, it appears that, as with other deregulation of natural monopolies in the US, increased competition will benefit some producers, harm other producers and generally dissipate economic rents to consumers.     

Return windows and the value relevance of earnings

Research on the value relevance of annual earnings commonly accumulate stock returns over a 12-month period starting from the fourth month of the fiscal year, resulting in a mismatch between the return window and the earnings period (i.e. the fiscal year). By comparing this return window with alternative windows, we show that the mismatch produces a downward bias in the estimated R² from the regression of stock returns on earnings, especially for firms that announce earnings early. Our results also show that both profits and losses are more value relevant when announced earlier, supporting regulatory calls for timely disclosure.     

Earnings, Cash Flows and Security Returns Over Long Return Intervals: Analysis and UK Evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide a fuller understanding of the process linking security returns and accounting data by focusing on the effect of long return intervals on the association between security returns and earnings and cash flow variables. First, we develop a theoretical basis for empirical analysis of the relationship between security returns and cash flow data over long return intervals. Second, we carry out empirical analysis of both the information content of cash flow variables and the incremental information content of accounting earnings and cash flows using UK data over the period 1985–92 for annual, two year and four year return intervals. Our results provide strong evidence of the valuation relevance of cash flow information for the dataset examined.     

Auditor quality effects on the relationship between accruals,cash flows and equity returns: a variance decomposition analysis

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be reconciled to a log-linear theoretical valuation model and, unlike the standard linear regression of returns on earnings components, accommodates time-varying discount rates. Based on a decomposition of the variance of equity returns, cash flows and accruals, our results indicate that both cash flow news and accruals news are important drivers of UK equity returns, although cash flows are more influential than accruals. We also find that variation in both earnings components has a more significant effect on returns for clients of large auditors. Finally, our results provide mixed evidence on the question of whether the impact of auditor quality is highest for the accruals component of earnings.     

The price and volume response to earnings announcements in the corporate bond market

We examine abnormal returns and trading activity in bond markets around earnings announcements. Previous work provides mixed evidence on the relative impact of positive and negative surprises and the degree of response in investment-grade and speculative-grade bonds. We find that these announcements convey value-relevant information for both positive and negative earnings surprises in both investment and speculative-grade bonds. We also document significant heterogeneity in the response across industries, with muted responses in both abnormal returns and trading activity for bonds of firms in the financial and utilities industries.     

News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns

This paper models components of the return distribution, which are assumed to be directed by a latent news process. The conditional variance of returns is a combination of jumps and smoothly changing components. A heterogeneous Poisson process with a time‐varying conditional intensity parameter governs the likelihood of jumps. Unlike typical jump models with stochastic volatility, previous realizations of both jump and normal innovations can feed back asymmetrically into expected volatility. This model improves forecasts of volatility, particularly after large changes in stock returns. We provide empirical evidence of the impact and feedback effects of jump versus normal return innovations, leverage effects, and the time‐series dynamics of jump clustering.     

On Valuing Participating Life Insurance Contracts with Conditional Heteroscedasticity

In this paper, we consider a novel approach for the fair valuation of a participating life insurance policy when the dynamics of the reference portfolio underlying the policy are governed by an Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH) model with innovations having a general parametric distribution. The APGARCH model provides a flexible way to incorporate the effect of conditional heteroscedasticity or time-varying conditional volatility and nests a number of important symmetric or asymmetric ARCH-type models in the literature. It also provides a flexible way to capture both the memory effect of the conditional volatility and the asymmetric effects of past positive and negative returns on the current conditional volatility, called the leverage effect. The key valuation tool here is the conditional Esscher transform of Bühlmann et al. (1996, 1998). The conditional Esscher transform provides a convenient and flexible way for the fair valuation under different specifications of the conditional heteroscedastic models. We illustrate the practical implementation of the model using the S&P 500 index as a proxy for the reference portfolio. We also conduct sensitivity analysis of the fair value of the policy with respect to the parameters in the APGARCH model to document the impacts of different conditional volatility models nested in the APGARCH model and the leverage effect on the fair value. The results of the analysis reveal that the memory effect of the conditional volatility has more significant impact on the fair value of the policy than the leverage effect.     

Effects of Firm Size,Financial Leverage and R&D Expenditures on Firm Earnings: An Analysis Using Quantile Regression Approach

As documented in the literature, the effects of firm size, financial leverage, and R&D expenditures on firm earnings are inclusive. Our hypothesis is that the inconsistent empirical results of such effects may be driven by the regression models implemented in data analysis. Using the quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978), this study analyses S&P 500 firms from 1996 to 2005. We find that the effects of firm size, financial leverage and R&D expenditures on firm earnings differ considerably across earnings quantiles. Comparing the results from the QR approach with those from the ordinary least squares (OLS) and least absolute deviation (LAD) methods, this study further explains the puzzling relationship between firm size, financial leverage, R&D expenditures and firm earnings.     

Political and Regulatory Risk in Water Utilities: Beta Sensitivity in the United Kingdom

UK utilities are generally regulated by the periodic setting of a price cap (the RPI-X mechanism). To establish these caps, regulators must determine what returns are appropriate on the capital employed by utilities. This paper addresses the issue of the level of risk inherent in investment in the equity of regulated water utilities in the UK. It uses the techniques of the Kalman Filter to estimate daily betas for the major utilities in the period from privatisation to mid-1999. The paper demonstrates that water utilities' risk is time-variant. It demonstrates, also, that there have been significant political and regulatory influences in the systematic risk faced by water utility shareholders. It finds beta to display little evidence of cyclical variation across the regulatory review cycle. The paper also confirms that significant excess returns have been generated over the history of the privatised water sector and suggests that over-estimation of systematic risk faced by investors in the sector may imply further excess returns in the next regulatory review period.     

Sarbanes–Oxley Act and the quality of earnings and accruals: Market-based evidence

In this paper we study the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) on the valuation weights of earnings and earnings components. The analysis seeks evidence that SOX is associated with changes in investors’ perception of earnings and accruals quality. Of particular interest in the analysis is the effect of SOX on the valuation weight of discretionary accruals that are perceived to be most vulnerable to manipulation prior to SOX. We find reliable increases in the valuation weights of earnings and earnings components after the passage of SOX. Nonetheless, we also find that the post-SOX shifts in the valuation weights of earnings and earnings components are indistinguishable from zero among firms in which the percentage equity shares held by institutional investors is 15% or greater.     

Accounting Conservatism and the Relation Between Returns and Accounting Data

This study adds change in cash investments and change in lagged operating assets to the regression of returns on earnings levels and earnings changes examined in Easton and Harris (1991). We argue that a positive coefficient on change in cash investments captures conservatism associated with investments in positive net present value projects the effects of which will not flow into the accounting statements until the expected future benefits are realized. A positive coefficient on change in lagged operating assets implies accounting conservatism associated with the application of accounting rules to operating assets in place. Our empirical results are, in general, consistent with these arguments. We examine differences in conservatism across samples with different market to book ratios, we compare firms with non-negative returns with firms with negative returns, we compare firms reporting losses with firms reporting profits, and we examine firms in different industries, firms with different levels of research and development expenditure, different amounts of depreciation, different amounts of advertising expense, and firms that adopt LIFO inventory valuation compared with those that adopt an alternative to LIFO.JEL Classification: M41     

The other side of value: The gross profitability premium

Profitability, measured by gross profits-to-assets, has roughly the same power as book-to-market predicting the cross section of average returns. Profitable firms generate significantly higher returns than unprofitable firms, despite having significantly higher valuation ratios. Controlling for profitability also dramatically increases the performance of value strategies, especially among the largest, most liquid stocks. These results are difficult to reconcile with popular explanations of the value premium, as profitable firms are less prone to distress, have longer cash flow durations, and have lower levels of operating leverage. Controlling for gross profitability explains most earnings related anomalies and a wide range of seemingly unrelated profitable trading strategies.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

The market valuation of IAS versus US-GAAP accounting measures using Form 20-F reconciliations

We investigate the market valuation of earnings and book value amounts prepared under IAS and US-GAAP to provide evidence for the debate between the US SEC and NYSE on whether foreign firms should be allowed to list in the US using IAS. We find that the US-GAAP earnings reconciliation adjustment is value-relevant and that US-GAAP amounts are valued differently for market value and return models, but not a price-per-share model. We also find that IAS amounts are more highly associated with price-per-share than US-GAAP amounts, and that US-GAAP amounts are more highly associated with security returns than IAS amounts.