Trade and Turnover: Theory and Evidence

Is the pattern of trade correlated with cross‐sector differences in job turnover? Theoretically, external shocks feed through to changes in domestic employment and cross‐sector differences in turnover give rise to compensating wage differentials, which feed through to output prices. Using two different datasets on turnover, we find strong evidence that normalized US net exports by sector are negatively correlated with job destruction and worker separation rates. Weaker evidence suggests a positive correlation between normalized net exports and job acquisition. Using sector‐specific job destruction data for both Canada and the US, we find confirmation of the theoretical prediction that normalized net exports to Canada are negatively related to the ratio of the US job destruction rate to the Canadian job destruction rate.     

Trade Competitiveness and Employment: Job Creation or Job Destruction

This paper empirically examines the impact of fluctuations in international trade competitiveness on employment in the UK manufacturing sector over the period 1999–2010. We find statistically significant but economically small effects of a shock to international trade competitiveness on the level of employment. Our results show that the adjustment process in employment mainly works through job creation. We also find that compared to large firms, small firms contribute more toward job creation than job destruction. Our results that changes in GDP growth rate and average wages are significantly related to employment suggest that the UK labour market significantly responds to market forces. Finally, we find that the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on both job creation and job destruction differs between exporting and non-exporting firms.     

Gross job flows in Ukraine

This paper documents and analyses gross job flows and their determinants in Ukraine using a dataset of more than 2200 Ukrainian firms operating in manufacturing and non‐manufacturing for the years 1998–2000. Job destruction dominates job creation in both 1999 and 2000. Another clear‐cut result of our analysis is the strong positive effect of new private firms on net employment growth. We also find an inverse relationship between job reallocation and size for both manufacturing and non‐manufacturing, while only in the latter sector is employment growth inversely related with size. The main focus of the paper is the effect of trade flows on employment adjustment in manufacturing. Our results show that both employment growth and job reallocation at the firm and two‐digit sector level are affected by strong exposure to import competition and product market competition in export markets. These effects are more pronounced when we consider trade flows to the world at large and to the EU than when the analysis is based on trade flows to the CIS. JEL Classifications: E24, F14, J63, P23.     

Trade liberalization,the exchange rate and job flows in Brazil

Brazil underwent a large trade liberalization process in the 1990s. Over the period, manufacturing employment decreased significantly, generating public debate on the need to revert liberalization. This paper aims to identify the actual effect of trade liberalization on employment, separating it from exchange rate movements using a gross job flow approach. Our novel dataset covers all sectors and formally registered enterprises, and we use new sector specific exchange rate data. Our estimates suggest that greater openness reduce jobs through increased job destruction, with no effect on job creation, but the exchange rate matters also. Depreciations expand the number of jobs in manufacturing by increasing creation, with no effect on destruction.     

Employment adjustment in the global crisis

This paper analyzes the employment adjustment of domestic, foreign and state‐owned companies before and during the global crisis. Using Hungarian firm‐level data for the period between 2006 and 2012 and matching foreign and state‐owned firms to domestic enterprises by industry and employment, it finds that the net job creation rate is similar in domestic and state‐owned firms while it is larger by 3.5 percent in foreign‐owned enterprises before the crisis. Domestic and foreign‐owned firms react to the crisis in very similar fashion by dropping net job creation by about 4 percentage points. Contrary to this behaviour, state‐owned enterprises do not decrease net job creation in some, and increase it by 3.5‐6 percent in other regressions.     

Innovation And Job Creation In A Smallopen Economy-Evidence From Norwegian Manufacturing Plants 1982–92

It is often claimed that the opportunities to create new manufacturing jobs in open, high-cost economies such as Norway, are concentrated in activities which are technologically advanced and knowledge intensive. This paper examines the relationship between job creation and innovation, as measured by R&D investments, in Norwegian manufacturing. We compare job creation in plants belonging to R&D firms to job creation in plants belonging to firms without R&D. We also compare job creation in plants belonging to high and low tech industries. Our data set covers more than 80 percent of manufacturing employment in Norway over the period 1982–92. The paper challenges the optimistic view about job creation in R&D intensive firms and high-tech industries. Some main findings are: (i) Net job creation is not higher in high-tech industries. (ii) There is no clear-cut positive relationship between net job creation and the R&D-intensity of the firm. (iii) There is less net job creation and less job-security in R&D-intensitefirms in the late 1980s and early 1990s.     

Effects of tariffs and real exchange rates on job reallocation: evidence from Latin America

Openness to international competition can lead to enhanced resource allocation in the end. While factor reallocation is essential if net benefits are to be derived from trade liberalization, the process generates costs both for transitioning workers and for employers undergoing personnel turnover. Net welfare gains depend on adjustment costs. Understanding of these issues has been hampered by data limitations. In this paper, we overcome some of these limitations by using new, harmonized measures on job creation and destruction for a number of countries in Latin America. We use these new series to investigate the impact of the removal of protectionism on net employment and gross job reallocation in Latin America. We find a robust pattern showing that reductions in tariffs and exchange rate appreciations increase the pace of job reallocation within sectors. We also find, however, some evidence of declining net employment growth as trade exposure increases. For example, we find some evidence that in the wake of tariff reductions, there is lower net employment growth.     

Import Competition and Employment in Japan: Plant Startup, Shutdown and Product Changes

This paper examines the relationship between import competition and employment during and after the recent Bubble period in Japan. Gross job flow data are combined with import data for 334 four-digit manufacturing industries. The estimates demonstrate that various modes of employment adjustment respond differently to changes in import prices. Job creation/destruction associated with plant startups/shutdowns was significantly sens-itive to import competition. Among plants continuously operating, job creation during the Bubble boom by plants that altered their product mix across industries was responsive to import price fluctuations, while job flows at plants that remained within the same industries were not.     

Job creation,job destruction,labour mobility and wages in Poland, 1988–19981

Longitudinal data from interviews with Poles of working age conducted in 1988, 1993 and 1998 combined with longitudinal firm‐level data present a detailed view of the transition from a state‐dominated to a market economy. Job losses in state firms and job creation in new private firms are the dominant employment changes, other than retirements from the labour force. In the Polish case, a significant proportion of this movement over the 1988–1998 period involves a spell of unemployment or exit from the labour force before obtaining a private sector job. This results in considerable job competition between workers leaving the state sector and those who are out of the labour force or unemployed. Income differences between the state sector and the de novo sector appear to have little association with mobility. These results suggest that movement to the new private sector is more likely to be the result of job loss than the result of people looking for better, higher paying jobs. Self‐employment plays an important role in the development of the private sector. People working on their own account have higher incomes than wageworkers and are likely to become owners employing additional workers. Incomes are higher in regions with high rates of job creation and depressed in regions with job destruction.     

Job creation and job types – New evidence from Danish entrepreneurs

We extend earlier analyses of the job creation of start-ups versus established firms by considering the educational content of the jobs created and destroyed. We define education-specific measures of job creation and job destruction at the firm level, and we use these measures to construct a measure of “surplus job creation”, defined as jobs created on top of any simultaneous destruction of similar jobs in incumbent firms in the same region and industry. Using Danish employer-employee data from 2002–2007 that identify the start-ups and that cover almost the entire private sector, these measures allow us to provide a more nuanced assessment of the role of entrepreneurial firms in the job-creation process than in previous studies. Our findings show that although start-ups are responsible for the entire overall net job creation, incumbents account for more than one-third of net job creation within high-skilled jobs. Moreover, start-ups “only” create approximately half of the surplus jobs and even less of the high-skilled surplus jobs. Finally, our approach allows us to characterise and identify differences across industries, educational groups and regions.     

Worker turnover and job reallocation in Taiwanese manufacturing

The paper examines time-series patterns of job and worker flows in a newly industrializing economy (NIE). Using plant-level data from the Taiwan manufacturing sector, the cyclical behaviour of job reallocation and its relation with worker turnover is analysed. It is found that job reallocation and labour turnover are procyclical, at both the aggregate and (two-digit) industry levels. The share of worker turnover caused by gross job reallocation is 17%, suggesting the majority of observed worker turnover reflects rotations of positions that are neither created or destroyed. There is substantial heterogeneity in plant-specific job and worker turnover patterns. Job creation and job destruction rates are higher among small plants and private-sector plants. The private plants are more dynamic than public plants in terms of worker turnover. Controlling for year and industry effects, it is found that job creation and worker turnover are both higher in export-oriented industries.     

Effects of pro-growth policies on employment: evidence of regional disparities

The main objective of our research is to study the direct impact of pro-growth economic policies on employment creation globally and regionally, as evidence has countered policy-makers’ expectation that output growth leads automatically to job creation. We innovate by using the ratio of employment to the population above 25 years as dependent variable instead of the customary employment elasticity. We apply generalized methods of moments’ econometrics on dynamic panel data models and find that growth stimulates employment creation on average across 76 countries. The policies promoting private sector credit, investments, openness, services, education spending, tertiary enrollment, and a fixed exchange rate are the ones that create employment. Larger government size undermines job creation, while policies promoting FDI and industrial development fail to stimulate employment. However, we establish that the effect of pro-growth policies on employment varies significantly across regions, with evidence of weaker links between economic policies and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.     

Financial conservatism fosters job creation during economic crises

ABSTRACT

This article aims to analyse the phenomenon of financial conservatism in firms’ capital structures and relate it to their employment variation for a sample of Spanish companies during the 2008–2013 period, characterized by a sharp crisis and very high unemployment rates. Financial conservatism is described as following a low-leverage/high cash no-short-term capital structure policy. We use the noisy selection model that relates growth, age, and size, to which we add a dummy indicating financial conservatism. As the growth of a company is measured as its number of employees’ variation, we are ultimately analysing how financial conservatism affects job creation. The objective of this work is to stress the advantages of a financially conservative policy as the evidence shows that such a policy at a given enterprise is a positive factor for job creation, which in Macroeconomics terms means an improvement in economy’s employment. The average conservative company more likely to foster job creation is a small company belonging to the industry or services sector.     

The future employment impacts of industrial robots : An input-output approach

An input-output framework is employed to estimate the indirect as well as direct effects of industrial robots on employment by industry sector and occupation. Net employment impacts are defined as the combined effects of the production and the use of industrial robots under the assumption that the demand for goods produced with this new technology is unaffected. These employment effects are estimated as the difference between a base economy (1977) and the same economy with an additional robot-producing sector and given (1990) stocks of robots installed in manufacturing industries. Six scenarios are defined by alternative levels of Robotics sector output and installed robots. The results show that job displacement is 4.5 to 6.2 times greater than job creation, that under the most extreme scenario the aggregate net job loss is 718,000, about 0.7 percent of total 1984 employment, and that the growth occupations (engineers) are highly skilled and white-collar while the declining occupations (welders, painters, machine operators, laborers) are relatively low skilled and blue-collar.     

Manufacturing growth and local employment multipliers in China

We study the impact of employment growth in manufacturing on job creation in the non-tradable sector for prefecture-level cities in China. Using the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population, we apply the shift-share approach to isolate the exogenous change of employment growth in manufacturing. For every hundred new manufacturing jobs, we find that 34 additional jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. We also show that the effect is heterogeneous along a number of dimensions. More specifically, one new job in high-technology manufacturing creates more jobs in the non-tradable sector while low-technology manufacturing employment growth has no significant multiplier effect. Among the non-tradable industries, the multiplier is the largest for wholesale, retail, and catering. Finally, the effect is also geographically heterogeneous, with the multiplier being greater for inland regions.     

Urban job creation and unemployment in LDCs: Todaro vs. Harris and Todaro

Overwhelming urban migration occurred so rapidly in many developing countries that widespread unemployment and squalid living conditions are commonplace. For many of these countries, stopping urban migration has become a major policy. Two models propose 2 different theories of urban unemployment. Todaro's short-term effects model concludes that job creation actually causes unemployment. Todaro and Harris formulated a long-term effects model in which welfare subsidies create more employment and stimulate the economy. A real solution to urban job creation would include optimal allocation of investment between the rural and labor sectors. A once and for all hiring tax would reduce replacement hiring. It is impossible to design an optimal tax subsidy package for urban unemployment unless it includes knowledge of the dynamic response of migration and unemployment to the rate of net and gross hiring of labor. If subsidy taxes are levied on the agricultural sector, the net result may be a higher rate of capital formation in the (low social return) manufacturing sector and a lower one in the agricultural sector.     

A Behavioral Model of Unemployment,Sociotropic Concerns,and the Political Economy of Trade Policy

We present a behavioral model in which agents are concerned about the scarring effects from unemployment for themselves and others and explore the manner in which unemployment matters for trade policy. We derive three policy implications: the government has an incentive to increase employment in sectors characterized by “good jobs,” where the good job/bad job characterization depends on an industry's job creation and destruction rates; the government has an incentive to pursue this policy in a gradual fashion by channeling new and unemployed workers into the appropriate sector; and opposition to trade liberalization can be reduced by welfare state policies.     

Worker inflow,outflow, and churning

Linked employer–employee data from Finnish business sector is used in analysing worker turnover. The data set is an unbalanced panel with over 219?000 observations in 1991–97. The churning (excess worker turnover), worker inflow, and worker outflow rates are explained by plant and employee characteristics. The probabilities of observing non-zero churning, inflow, and outflow rates increase with plant size. The magnitudes of the non-zero churning and inflow rates depend positively on size, but the magnitude of outflow rate depends negatively on size. High-wage plants have low turnover; plants with large within-plant variation in wages have high turnover. Average tenure of employees has a negative impact on turnover. High plant employment growth increases churning and separation but reduces hiring in the next year. Also controlled are average age and education of employees, shares of women and homeowners among employees, foreign ownership, ownership changes, and regional unemployment.