Temporal causality and the dynamics of judicial appellate caseload,real income and socio-economic complexity in Australia

This paper shows that, during the 1970s and 1980s, MENA economies were characterized by a significant overvaluation of their currency. This overvaluation has had a cost in terms of competitiveness. To determine the degree of overvaluation of the MENA currencies, an indicator of misalignment was developed based on the estimation of an equilibrium exchange rate (Edwards, Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1988). The empirical work was based on a panel of 53 developing countries, ten of which are MENA economies. Although overvaluation decreased in the 1990s, probably due to flexibilization of the exchange rate regime in some MENA countries and to better macroeconomic management in others, misalignment remained higher than in other regions. This may be explained by the MENA countries’ delay in adopting more flexible exchange rates, as well as in reforming their economies. In terms of competitiveness, the estimation of an export equation has shown that manufactured exports have been significantly affected by the overvaluation of the MENA currencies. Countries that already had a more diversified economy benefited more from the decreased overvaluation in the 1990s. These countries also saw a continuous rise in diversification of their manufactured exports, resulting from the significant decline in exchange rate misalignment.     

Cointegration and causality in the exports-GDP nexus: The post-war evidence for Canada

This paper tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality in the exports-GDP nexus in Canada 1947–96, using both bivariate and trivariate models. Contrary to previous studies we cannot conclude that economic growth is either export-led, or output-driven, but rather that strong bi-directional causality exists between Canadian exports and GDP, and the GDP of its main trading partner, the United States. First version received: April 1998/final version received: March 1999     

Causality between exports,world income and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper investigates the direction of causation between GDP representing economic growth, exports and its different categories, imports and world income. After experiencing vigorous import-substitution in the past decades, Pakistan adopted an outward-looking strategy in the late 1980s with an emphasis on export promotion. A strong and stable relationship between GDP and exports and bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and GDP has been found. Export promotion policy is pursued consistently with an emphasis on manufactured exports and this is most likely to contribute adequately to economic growth in the long run.     

Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK

Since the objective of economic policy is to change target variables in the DGP, when economic policy analysis uses an econometric model, it is important that the model delivers reliable inferences about policy responses in the DGP. This requires that the model be congruent and encompassing, and hence exogeneity, causality, cointegration, co-breaking, and invariance all play major roles. We discuss these roles in linear cointegrated VARs, prior to illustrating their importance in a bivariate model of money and interest rates in the UK over the last century.Financial support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council under grant L116251015, and the EUI Research Council grantEconometric Modelling of Economic Time Series, is gratefully acknowledged. Early research for the paper was done whilst Mizon was Visiting Fellow in the Economics Program of the RSSS at ANU, where he benefited from the excellent research environment and discussions with Adrian Pagan. We are grateful to Hans-Martin Krolzig for helpful discussions on the topic. We also thank members of the Research Department, Norges Bank, Oslo, the particpants at theWorkshop on Money Demand in Europe, Humboldt University, October 1997, two referees, and the editors Helmut Lütkepohl and Jürgen Wolters for their valuable comments. The data may be obtained from the internet, http://wotan.wiwi.huberlin.de/oekonometric./engl/data.html     

A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy

We consider the empirical relevance of two opposing hypotheses on the causality between income and democracy: The Democratic Transition hypothesis claims that rising incomes cause a transition to democracy, whereas the Critical Junctures hypothesis denies this causal relation. Our empirical strategy is motivated by Unified Growth Theory, which hypothesizes that the present international income differences have roots in the prehistoric past. Thus, we use prehistoric measures of biogeography as instruments for modern income levels, and find a large long-run causal effect of income on the degree of democracy. This result rejects the Critical Junctures hypothesis, which is an important part of the Primacy of Institutions view.     

Crime rates,male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.     

Growth, income distribution, and democracy: What the data say

This paper investigates the relationship between income distribution, democratic institutions, and growth. It does so by addressing three main issues: the properties and reliability of the income distribution data, the robustness of the reduced form relationships between income distribution and growth estimated so far, and the specific channels through which income distribution affects growth. The main conclusion in this regard is that there is strong empirical support for two types of explanations, linking income distribution to sociopolitical instability and to the education/fertility decision. A third channel, based on the interplay of borrowing constraints and investment in human capital, also seems to receive some support by the data, although it is probably the hardest to test with the existing data. By contrast, there appears to be less empirical support for explanations based on the effects of income distribution on fiscal policy.     

An experimental study of democracy breakdown,income and inequality

Many empirical studies investigate the relationships between economic development, inequality, and democracy survival; however, establishing causal links with naturally occurring cross-country data is problematic. We address this question in a laboratory experiment, where in democracy citizens can invest in profitable projects and vote on income taxation. In the alternative regime—autocracy—efficient investment levels and equitable redistribution are implemented exogenously, but there is a risk of resources being partially expropriated. Citizens can voluntarily switch from democracy to autocracy by a majority vote, which mimics recent historical examples, where voters voluntarily delegate political powers to an autocrat in exchange for a promise of high taxation and redistribution. We find that the likelihood of democracy breakdown increases with the degree of inequality but does not vary with productivity. The link between productivity and democracy survival depends critically on the degree of sophistication of the median voter.     

The intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the United Kingdom, 1750 to 2004

We examine the intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the UK during 1750 to 2004. We pay particular attention to long run trends by applying a battery of unit root and cointegration techniques to the data, and we use a modified Granger causality test on data spans organized around structural breaks in the series. The results suggest that, allowing for structural breaks, UK real revenue and spending are I(1) series and cointegrated and that Granger causality runs from government spending to revenue. As such, the ‘spend-tax’ hypothesis appears to best characterize the long run intertemporal relation between government revenue and spending in the UK.     

Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.     

Unit Root Analyses of the Causality Between Japanese Money and Income

Unit root techniques and cointegration analysis have develop ed considerably in the last ten years. At the same time, the nonstationary test for Granger causality has been developed. We shed some new light on Japanese money supply and income causality by using nonstationary techniques. We specify univariate ARMA models of money, income, GNP deflator and rate of interest, initially by using the Dickey and Fuller (DF) or the augmented DF (ADF) tests. Two diagnostic tests are applied to each selected ARMA regression. One is the residual DF test, and the other is the moving average (MA) unit root test of residuals . After selecting the ARMA model, some causality tests are applied to the error correction model (ECM) of a vector autoregression (VAR) one of which is ordinary least squares (OLS) and another is the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The former requires only the standard F -test on the deleted variables in the ECM. The latter requires the Johansen's ML method in estimating cointegration. Causality is found to go from income to money supply but not the other way. Appendices include a simple implementation of the MA unit root test, a pedagogical proof of the Granger causality tests developed by Toda and Phillips (1993) and an interpretation of the test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
JEL Classification Numbers: C32, E50     

Money,income and sterilization: tests for causality in the oil economy of Kuwait

The purpose of this investigation is to provide some evidence on two widely held hypotheses dominating monetary analysis in the small oil economy of Kuwait and other Gulf states. The first posits that causality should run from money to income, while the second emphasizes the neutral impact of external transactions on the domestic money supply.     

On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion

The Granger-causal relationship between the size and dispersion of fluctuations in sub-components of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is examined using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests and data from January 1968 to December 2008. Strong in-sample evidence is found for feedback between median inflation and price dispersion; the evidence for Granger-causation from median inflation to price dispersion remains strong in out-of-sample testing, but is less strong for Granger-causation in the opposite direction. The implications of these results for the variety of price-level determination models in the literature are discussed.     

Revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in South Asia: a study of Bangladesh and India

Both Bangladesh and India are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms. However, in relative terms – remittances as a per cent of GDP – the two countries stand at 6.1% and 2.8%, respectively, well below the levels of the top 10 recipients. In this article, we explore the effect of remittances on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth considering Bangladesh and India, as reference countries over the periods 1980–2012 and 1977–2012, respectively. We examine the presence of a long-run association between remittances and TFP using a number of tests. The results indicate that remittances have threshold effects on TFP growth in both countries. Despite the two countries receiving substantial amount of remittances, we note that Bangladesh has a U-shaped relationship whereas India has an inverted U-shaped relationship with TFP growth. For Bangladesh, a minimum threshold of remittances (% GDP) is 5.3% and for India, a tipping point of remittances (% GDP) is at 1.8%. The causality tests confirm a bidirectional effect, which implies that remittances and TFP growth are mutually reinforcing. Interestingly, while the two economies have similar remittances impact in regards to causality, the study highlights two different tipping points of remittances.     

Consumption and disposable income in the EU countries: the role of wealth effects

We investigate the long run relationship between private consumption and disposable income for a sample of EU countries using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. For the ordinary consumption-income model the evidence on cointegration is ambiguous. In addition, the cointegration vector obtained by efficient estimation methods is not consistent with theoretical reasoning, as it reflects a decline in the savings rate over time. Extending the analysis by financial wealth improves the model fit markedly. In particular, the income elasticity is not different from 1 and therefore in line with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis. The marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth is in a range of 3–5%, thereby confirming recent time series results.     

中国经济与美、日经济波动的相关性研究

中国经济与美、日经济波动有很强的相关性和长期的均衡关系,美国经济与中国经济间有正向关系;日本与中国经济间却是负向关系。美、日两国经济的共同波动会通过资本流动的渠道影响中国。因此,为了降低美日经济波动对中国的影响,中国贸易必须走多元化的路子,而且应减少对国外资金流入的依赖。     

The stability assumption in tests of causality between money and income

This note argues that structural stability is an important condition for tests of Grangercausality. Despite this fact the standard causality tests are sometimes applied to data for which structural stability cannot be assumed a priori. Therefore the stability of GNP/M1 systems of the U.S., Canada, and West Germany in the aftermath of the 1973/74 oil crisis is analyzed using formal statistical tests. Prediction tests are particularly useful for that purpose. The stability of the model for Canadian data is rejected whereas stability is not rejected for the U.S. and West Germany.     

中国财政支出结构与经济增长的Granger因果关系分析

财政支出与经济增长之间有联系,那么,财政支出结构的变化是否会对经济增长起到显著的作用,它们之间的关系如何,就值得研究。可运用单位根、协整及Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,分析中国财政支出结构与经济增长的关系。     

财政支农支出与农民收入增长关系研究

文章利用1985-2009年我国财政支农支出与农民收入相关数据,对我国财政支农支出与农民收入增长关系进行协整分析及Granger因果关系检验,得出两者存在长期均衡关系,基于此,提出了增加农民收入、促进经济发展的相关对策建议。     

Dividend policy and earnings: a study of short- and long-term causality

This research examines whether earnings per share (EPS) and dividends per share (DPS) exhibit a short and long causality. The data employed in this study consist of quarterly EPS and DPS for 28 of the DJIA companies obtained from Bloomberg over a recent 10-year period. The companies under investigation all have EPS and DPS data available over the period studied. Dividends are generally paid out of earnings. The amount and timing of the dividend paid is a function of the respective company’s dividend policy. Therefore, the EPS_t can be expressed in terms of the DPS_t as follows: EPS_t = αDPS_t where α is a nonnegative constant. The equation suggests that there is a linear relationship between the EPS_t and the DPS_t. The results of this study indicate that bi-directional causality exists for some of the companies.