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Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today. 相似文献
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In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors. 相似文献
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《Journal Of Asia-Pacific Business》2013,14(3):81-96
This paper systematically analyses the longer-term effects on the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade of changes in competitiveness brought about by changing real exchange rates. We introduce a model to explain exports from four ASEAN countries which highlights the role of real exchange rates. Specifically, we provide evidence on the price responsiveness of export demand. The results indicate that (i) there have been large changes in real exchange rates; and (ii) the pattern of ASEAN trade responds to relative prices (real exchange rates). Suprisingly, however, the impact of observed changes in real exchange rates on ASEAN trade is only relatively minor. 相似文献
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Alfredo M. Bobillo Juan A. Rodriguez Sanz Fernando Tejerina Gaite 《Journal of Business Ethics》2009,87(Z1):25-40
The activism of institutional investors tends more and more toward the supervision and control of the behavior of the managers
of big companies. In this article, we present a model based on the creation of an activism index that lets us evaluate such
activism’s effect on the sensitivity of the investment policies of a company in the face of financial variables (such as cash
flow and liquidity ratio) and market variables (ownership concentration and value creation index). To test our assertions,
we analyze firm-level data for United Kingdom (U.K.), Germany, France, Denmark, and Spain during the period 1995–2004. Our
results point to a significant reduction in the sensitivity of company investment decisions in the face of these variables,
especially relative to intangible capital, as a result of the neutralizing effect of activism on the high agency costs of
free cash flow and on the information asymmetries of the market. 相似文献
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本文首先考察了典型代理人效用最优化下的消费和健康人力资本等最优一阶条件,得到实际汇率和出生率均衡方程;同时结合生产者最优化进一步拓展该模型,得到健康支出、出生率等对实际汇率的影响.理论分析表明:政府健康支出、人口出生率、非贸易品与贸易品劳动生产率之比和实际汇率存在长期的均衡关系,政府健康支出、出生率对实际汇率都有一定的影响.面板数据动态最小二乘法的实证结果显示:政府健康支出和实际汇率是同向变化,两者之间都是正相关;人口出生率和实际汇率变化则依赖于具体的条件. 相似文献
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This paper argues that relative exchange rates between the host countries of foreign direct investment affect their competition for FDI. Specifically, if the host country currency appreciates against the source country's currency more than that of its rival, FDI inflows of the host country will decrease, while FDI inflows increase in the rival country. Using the data of Japanese FDI in nine Asian manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the paper examines the hypothesis in the context of the competition between China and ASEAN‐4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). Empirical results show that the relative exchange rate is a statistically significant factor that determines the relative inflows of Japanese FDI for manufacturing as a whole, and for such sub‐sectors as textiles, food, electronics, transportation equipment, and others. Exchange rate policies of China and ASEAN‐4 played a critical role in dynamically reshaping the geographic distribution of Japanese FDI in Asia. 相似文献
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庄岩 《商业经济(哈尔滨)》2013,(24):114-115
当前,我国经济已经进入了一个市场化与国际化的转型时期,在经济全球化背景下,利率政策和汇率政策在我国货币政策中的作用日益显著。我国很多学者在这一领域进行了积极的探索,部分成果实现了学术突破,但对于价格型货币政策即利率政策和汇率政策的综合研究还远远不够丰富和深入。我国应进一步深入研究利率政策和汇率政策的交互作用下对中国宏观经济的影响程度,这种影响是否与货币当局的预期相吻合;包含汇率政策在内的扩展的泰勒规则在中国经济的适应性;研究价格型货币政策工具之间的协调机制。通过梳理利率与汇率的关系、利率政策与汇率政策有效搭配的相关理论,可以更好地为新时期我国利率政策和汇率政策的协调搭配提供参考。 相似文献
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The Potential Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Rates 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
L. C. G. Rogers 《Mathematical Finance》1997,7(2):157-176
It is possible to specify a model for interest rates in various ways, by giving the dynamics of the spot rate or of the forward rates, for example. A less well–developed approach is to specify the law of the state–price density process directly. In abstract, the state–price density process is a positive supermartingale, and the theory of Markov processes provides a rich framework for the generation of examples of such things. We show how this can be done, and provide simple examples (some familiar, some new) where prices of derivatives can be computed very easily. One benefit of the potential approach is that it becomes very easy to model the yield curve in many countries at once, together with the exchange rates between them. 相似文献
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在成本竞争的要求下,服务外包作为现代服务业的新形式出现,其独有的特征为各国经济的发展提供了新的契机。本文通过对国际服务外包发展趋势和转移动因的研究,分析了中国承接服务外包的利弊以及其如何影响中国经济的发展,并提出相应的对策。 相似文献
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人口老龄化与经济发展水平:国际比较及其启示 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
人口老龄化已成为全球性的人口发展趋势.与世界其他老年人口比例相当的国家相比,中国的经济发展水平并不差;与世界其他经济发展水平相当的国家相比,中国的人口老龄化程度也并不是最严重.面对潜在的危机和挑战,需要未雨绸缪,也不能过于悲观.政府对于当下生育率和老龄问题的态度与作为.是决定一个国家或地区未来老龄危机的关键因素. 相似文献
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We analyze the hedging effectiveness of positions that replicate stock indexes using corresponding futures contracts through the application of a dynamic, stochastic hedging strategy proposed by Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Conclusive gains do not emerge in any of the markets analyzed over the period considered, relative to the use of a constant unit hedge ratio. These findings are consistent with the trend observed in the IBEX 35 futures market study of Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Our empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to what happens in less liquid markets, the discrepancy between theoretical and quoted prices in index futures contracts in fully developed markets does not represent a noise factor that can be successfully exploited for hedging. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1050–1066, 2009 相似文献
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当前国际汇率理论的局限性及其发展方向 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
现有汇率理论的局限性表现在对外汇交易量的放大效应、远期汇率的预测偏差、汇率的过度波动以及汇率决定等问题的解释力低下,用宏观经济学的理论体系构筑起来的现有汇率理论正陷入危机之中,需要进行变革。汇率理论的未来发展,将沿着宏观经济学的微观基础理论、金融市场微观结构理论和国际金融政治经济学三个方向发展。 相似文献
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一部总结浙江区域经济发展经验并上升到理论高度的力作--评《市场义乌--从鸡毛换糖到国际商贸》 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
2003年10月浙江人民出版社出版了《市场义乌——从鸡毛换糖到国际商贸》一书,该书是陆立军、白小虎、王祖强等学者亲自参加义乌发展小商品市场的实践,在大量调查研究和理论提炼的基础上,历时三年创作而成的。该书以全国最大的专业市场——义乌小商品市场为案例,以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导,运用现代经济学的理论与分析工具,分析了义乌小商品市场从“鸡毛换糖”到国际商贸的演变轨迹,并通过对民间专业市场这 相似文献
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在描述长江三角洲制造业省际贸易和国际贸易发展的基础上,利用江苏、浙江、上海三省市2002-2007年的投入产出表,实证检验了省际贸易和国际贸易对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:省际贸易和国际贸易都对经济增长产生了正面影响,但省际贸易的经济增长效应要大于国际贸易,而且省际贸易和国际贸易对低技术行业的经济增长效应要大于高技术行业. 相似文献
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超额贷款、不良率与商业银行流动性——流动性螺旋还是流动性权衡 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着我国商业银行市场竞争程度不断加剧,流动性管理的重要性日益凸显.本文采用我国112家商业银行2011-2016年的财务面板数据,实证分析超额贷款和不良率对商业银行流动性的影响,并检验了流动性两大假说.结果显示:当期超额贷款和前期不良率对商业银行流动性具有先负向后正向的U型影响关系,体现出流动性权衡策略;当期不良率对商业银行流动性具有负向的影响,体现出流动性螺旋特征;当考虑超额贷款与不良率的交互效应时,商业银行会提高流动性权衡策略的阈值,更为积极地补充流动性,避免二者的叠加效应引发流动性风险.最后,本文从商业银行流动性管理策略的完善和政府监管角度提出了相关启示. 相似文献
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SWITGARD FEUERSTEIN 《International Journal of the Economics of Business》2004,11(1):107-116
A fluctuating exchange rate has an impact on how firms value a given stream of profits, thereby affecting the ability of an international oligopoly to collude implicitly. The conversion effect arises because the foreign firm maximizes its profits earned on the home market measured in foreign currency. The discount factor effect captures the fact that exchange rate fluctuations are connected with fluctuations in the interest rates, thereby changing the present value of future profits. Although each effect refers to only one of the firms, considered together they have an identical impact on the home and the foreign firm. If the foreign country is small, the conversion effect and the discount factor effect exactly offset each other. Otherwise, the effects analysed make collusion more difficult to sustain. 相似文献