Arbitrage and Growth Rate for Riskless Investments in a Stationary Economy

A sequential investment is a vector of payments over time, ( a ₀, a ₁, ... , a_n ), where a payment is made to or by the investor according as a_i is positive or negative. Given a collection of such investments it may be possible to assemble a portfolio from which an investor can get "something for nothing," meaning that without investing any money of his own he can receive a positive return after some finite number of time periods. Cantor and Lipmann (1995) have given a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a set of investments to have this property. We present a short proof of this result. If arbitrage is not possible, our result leads to a simple derivation of the expression for the long–run growth rate of the set of investments in terms of its "internal rate of return."     

From Discrete- to Continuous-Time Finance: Weak Convergence of the Financial Gain Process1

Conditions suitable for applications in finance are given for the weak convergence (or convergence in probability) of stochastic integrals. For example, consider a sequence Sⁿ of security price processes converging in distribution to S and a sequence θⁿ of trading strategies converging in distribution to θ. We survey conditions under which the financial gain process θⁿ dSⁿ converges in distribution to θ dS. Examples include convergence from discrete- to continuous-time settings and, in particular, generalizations of the convergence of binomial option replication models to the Black-Scholes model. Counterexamples are also provided.     

沪深300股指期货期现套利的可行性研究——基于统计套利模型的实证

从期现套利的基本思路出发,论证利用股指期货进行期现套利的可行性。实证表明,采用沪深300股指期货仿真交易的数据,并选择沪深300指数中权重排名前10的一篮子股票组合作为现货组合,运用基于误差修正模型(ECM)的统计套利技术,可以实现股指期货的无风险套利。     

中国概念股指期货跨市场套利研究——基于沪深300指数、H股指数、新华富时A50指数期货的实证分析

针对沪深300指数、H股指数、新华富时A50指数期货,给出确定投资比例、选择投资时机及度量投资风险的方法,对中国概念股指期货的跨市场套利机会进行研究,结论显示:中国沪深300股票指数与周边市场的中国概念股票指数之间存在着普遍关联性,并且这种关联性可以转化为套利机会.实证结果表明:当1∶0.836546作为A50股指期货与H股股指期货的持仓比时,可以得到最优套利结果.     

中英期货市场铜期货跨市套利行为研究

在经济全球化日益成形以及国内期货市场的不断成熟情况下,LME与SHFE两市间铜期货套利行为日趋增多。从跨市套利的角度,通过国内外市场价格比值的变化考察国内外市场的关联性,结果表明,国内期货市场价格波动对于国内外期货市场的价格信号的反应存在显著差异,并且这种差异呈现同一的模式。究其原因,主要是国内投机者存在着低估国际市场价格波动、高估国内市场价格波动的心理偏差。从现实和长远利益的视角出发,无论理论界还是实业界,都应重视期货市场本身的套期保值行为和套利行为,重视理论研究和实务出现的偏离。     

监管资本套利的动因与经济效应研究——兼论对我国新资本协议实施的启示

监管资本套利,是商业银行利用资本监管制度之间的差异性以及制度内部的不协调性,运用某种手段,在不改变实际风险水平的情况下提高资本充足率水平的行为。监管资本套利,产生于巴塞尔协议资本监管框架的缺陷,作为巴塞尔协议一个未曾预料的结果,其在西方发达国家发展非常迅速。2010年是新资本协议在中国正式实施的元年,监管资本套利也必将成为中国不可回避的一个问题。本文讨论了商业银行监管资本套利的动因以及经济影响,依据结论的政策含义,总结了对我国新资本协议实施的启示。     

A Comparison of Return Rate Calculation Methods: Evidence from 16 Retailers

The product return rate (RR) is an important metric for retailers; even small RR changes can significantly impact retailers’ profit. Companies and researchers typically favor and employ one of three methods to calculate the RR: based on the number of returned items, these items’ revenue, or their profit contribution. Interviews with 24 managers and industry experts reveal that two methods, item-based and revenue-based, are often used. However, little is known about how much the interpretation of RRs depends on the calculation method. In this article, the authors rely on extensive datasets to investigate these potential differences empirically. Analyzing more than 8 million transactions at sixteen different retailers, the authors find that RRs calculated via the three methods differ on average by 24.3%. The size of these differences makes cross-sectional comparisons of RRs calculated via different methods difficult. In contrast, the authors find that the developments of the RRs over time are similar, which allows for a meaningful time-series comparison of RR developments, regardless of the method. Finally, this research shows that all three calculation methods result in RRs that are equally insightful (leading) indicators of relevant retailer performance metrics.     

上证50指数收益率特征及其波动性分析

研究国内非综合指数即成份指数(上证50指数)的收益率特征及其波动性,可以估计得出对指数风险收益具有较好预测作用的自回归———GARCH(1,1)-M模型,并实证分析指数收益的风险特性、稳定性、波动性等特征,这对当前探讨上证50指数相关指数衍生品推出及其投资分析均具有重要意义。     

海南省人力资本回报率的实证分析

基于Mincer模型对海南省 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 3年的人力资本回报率进行了实证研究。海南省职工的工资收入与其受教育程度和工作年限有显著的相关关系 ;海南省的人力资本回报率、工资收入与人力资本的相关程度均低于中国平均水平 ,而且男性又低于女性 ;海南省劳动力市场明显地存在对女性的工资歧视、职业歧视和年龄歧视 ;中年男性和中、老年女性在劳动力市场中属于弱势群体     

海南省人力资本回报率的实证分析

基于Mincer模型对海南省2002-2003年的人力资本回报率进行了实证研究.海南省职工的工资收入与其受教育程度和工作年限有显著的相关关系;海南省的人力资本回报率、工资收入与人力资本的相关程度均低于中国平均水平,而且男性又低于女性;海南省劳动力市场明显地存在对女性的工资歧视、职业歧视和年龄歧视;中年男性和中、老年女性在劳动力市场中属于弱势群体.     

中国房地产公司股权收益与资本回报率、债务利率关系

本文结合中国房地产公司的动态资本结构特征,建立房地产公司动态资本结构模型,利用该模型进行了数据仿真实验,研究中国房地产公司资本结构对股权收益的影响情况。研究发现股权收益率随着资本回报率标准差增长,呈现出骤降后平稳上升一定水平的规律,并且资产负债率档位越高,收益率水平越不稳定;而当资产负债率处于较低水平时,债务利率水平的差异并不会对股权收益率造成较为明显的区别,而随着资产负债率水平的提高,股权收益率开始随着债务利率水平的差异而产生不同,在盈利能力相等时,股权收益率均随债务成本的增大而降低。     

生产性服务资源集聚模式会影响制造业资本回报率吗？

文章在测算出生产性服务资源三类集聚程度的基础上,运用空间计量方法首次深入剖析集聚模式对制造业资本回报率的作用机制,并进一步从时间异质性和距离异质性视角刻画上述机制。得到的结论主要有：首先生产性服务资源自身集聚及其与制造业协同集聚均有助于制造业资本回报率的提升,生产性服务资源与农业的协同集聚则会对制造业资本回报率产生负向冲击,这一负向冲击主要产生于2012年后;其次虽然生产性服务资源与制造业协同集聚对制造业资本回报率的作用力大于生产性服务资源自身集聚,但生产性服务资源与制造业协同集聚对制造业资本回报率正向作用的显著性上限为300公里,地理距离对生产性服务资源自身集聚正向效应的制约力则不显著;最后就业密集度、人力资本深化和生产率提升均有助于制造业资本回报率的提升,研发投入对制造业资本回报率的作用力不显著,中国制造业资本回报率持续提升还有赖于劳动者技能提升和技术进步。     

权证定价中基于GARCH模型族的波动率研究

传统的权证定价方法假定标的证券收益率服从对数正态分布。但现实世界中标的证券收益率却具有尖峰厚尾分布,波动率的聚集性,证券市场的"杠杆作用"等特征,因而传统定价结果可能导致偏差较大。为此,本文以随机波动率代替历史波动率的假设,消除金融时间序列的异方差性的影响;运用GARCH模型族中的3种模型(GARCH,EGARCH,GJR-GARCH)对其进行参数估计,及权证定价对比;还分别就历史与随机波动率的差别、对称型与非对称型GARCH模型的差别,以及理论与实际的差别进行了比较分析。结论得出这种差别的来源,并对此进行了探讨。     

Pricing Options On Risky Assets In A Stochastic Interest Rate Economy1

This paper studies contingent claim valuation of risky assets in a stochastic interest rate economy. the model employed generalizes the approach utilized by Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) by imbedding their stochastic interest rate economy into one containing an arbitrary number of additional risky assets. We derive closed form formulae for certain types of European options in this context, notably call and put options on risky assets, forward contracts, and futures contracts. We also value American contingent claims whose payoffs are permitted to be general functions of both the term structure and asset prices generalizing Bensoussan (1984) and Karatzas (1988) in this regard. Here, we provide an example where an American call's value is well defined, yet there does not exist an optimal trading strategy which attains this value. Furthermore, this example is not pathological as it is a generalization of Roll's (1977) formula for a call option on a stock that pays discrete dividends.     

A simple method for extracting the probability of default from American put option prices

We present a novel method for extracting the risk-neutral probability of default (PD) of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed by Carr and Wu, we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which the PD can be inferred. The method is easy to implement. Our empirical results based on seven large US firms for the period 2002–2010 show that, in some cases, our option-implied PD can provide a more accurate estimate of default probability than the estimates implied from credit default swaps.     

Catch Them If You Can: The Effect of Reminder Direct Mailings on the Return Rate of First-Time Donors

Despite the relevance of interactive marketing strategies, most nonprofit organizations rely on a marketing mix with a focus on direct marketing. Previous research shows that, by optimizing the mailing frequency, organizations are able to distinguish their mailing from other mailings that donors receive. However, some organizations, such as blood services, struggle to convert the frequency recommendations into their marketing practice. As donation events occur irregularly and blood donors are only able to donate a certain number of times, mailing strategies have to result in blood donations. This study examines a strategy in which a reminder direct mailing follows the regular invitation a few days before a particular donation event. A field experiment was conducted with 396 donors; 203 received the double mailing. Surprisingly, the results from hierarchical binary logistic regressions do not reveal any differences between the experimental groups. A single direct mailing approach is recommended, leading to considerable cost savings.     

Return predictability of variance differences: A fractionally cointegrated approach

This paper examines the fractional cointegration between downside (upside) components of realized and implied variances. A positive association is found between the strength of their cofractional relation and the return predictability of their differences. That association is established via the common long-memory component of the variances that are fractionally cointegrated, which represents the volatility-of-volatility factor that determines the variance premium. Our results indicate that market fears play a critical role not only in driving the long-run equilibrium relationship between implied-realized variances but also in understanding the return predictability. A simulation study further verifies these claims.     

Sustainable Asset Growth and the Accounting Rate of Return in Not–For–Profit Organizations: Theory and Evidence

Parties needing to monitor the financial performance of not–for–profit (NFP) organizations have traditionally relied upon financial ratios of accounting data. This practice can lead to misleading inferences about profitability in relation to organizational needs, since accounting rates of return are potentially poor proxies for economic rates of return. In this paper we show how to compensate for the imprecision of the accounting rate of return through the use of a simple interpretive rule based on the finding that accounting and economic rates of return are on the same side of the growth rate. According to our rule, the accounting rate of return must exceed the asset growth rate in order to sustain growth with internally–generated cash flow. Logistic regressions are used to test the rule's ability to predict sustainable asset growth in a sample of NFP hospitals. The findings not only validate the rule, but also show that the rule exploits all usable information contained in the accounting rate of return     

投资率和内部宏观投资效率——基于数据包络分析拥挤模型的结论

本文认为,虽然目前中国投资率较高而投资效率较低,但投资效率与投资率存在此消彼长的关系;短期内继续以较高投资率拉动经济增长仍是可行的策略;若各省投资率基本一致,则投资效率差异就是地区增长差距拉大的决定性因素;从内部投资效率比较而言,真正过热的省份主要是胶东半岛、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲的几个经济强省,因此加大对中西部的政策倾斜对这些省份几乎没有负面影响。     

A Cross-Cultural Study of Managerial Work Values in Singapore

ABSTRACT

The paper presents the findings of a research conducted on work values of expatriate and local managers in Singapore. The sample included about 600 expatriate and local managers of 30 American, Canadian, British, Swedish, and Korean companies operating in Singapore. The selected companies represented 13 industries. The managers were identified on the basis of their ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Hofstede's Value Survey Module was used as the major data collection instrument. The findings revealed some significant differences between the managers of the Western and the Eastern (Oriental) cultures regarding their work values, preferred management styles, and their perception of existing managerial practices. The findings also largely substantiate the “crossvergence” argument of managerial work values.