暴雨洪水流域系统随机模拟

本文提出的移置特大暴雨的不连序序列的随机插补方法，以及利用W-H逆变换法将偏态暴雨序列转为正态序列和随机扣除模拟的暴雨过程损失量等方面，基本是可行的，对提高模型的代表性、稳定性和实用性有重要作用。     

暴雨随机模型研究：暴雨洪水流域系统随机模拟研究之五

暴雨随机模型是暴雨洪水流域系统随机模拟洪水过程的关键。本文论述了现行几种实用性暴雨随机模型，指出了它们的特点，并分析了各自的优缺点。总的说来，这些模型概念清楚，结构简单，计算方便。实测资料检验表明，有良好地随机模拟效果，可推广应用。     

暴雨洪水流域系统随机模拟（研究之二）

暴雨洪水流域系统的输入,本文首次成功地引用具有明显优点的正则展开模型随机模拟暴雨过程;流域系统的输送,采用了简便可行的产、汇流模型;各子模型及系统输出的洪水过程检验表明,流域系统随机模拟的效果是令人满意的。     

榕江流域特大暴雨洪水分析

采用榕江流域特大暴雨洪水资料,按成因、发生、发展过程,充分认识特大暴雨洪水存在多种组合因素,对今后进行暴雨洪水预测,提高防灾能力有重要的参考作用。     

洪水随机模拟在澜沧江流域地区洪水组成中的应用

近年来，随着水利水电工程的增多，主要研究对象已向全流域库群转化，常规水文方法在工程实践中的局限性越来越突出。由于随机模拟所具有的优点，探讨用随机模拟的方法对水文水资源序列进行模拟已经越来越成为不可替代的有效方法。随着计算机运算能力的不断提高，径流的随机模拟技术逐步得到应用。该文通过将洪水随机模拟法应用于澜沧江中下游的洪水地区组成的研究中，在这个过程中取得了比较好的结果。     

汶川县降雨时空分布特征及设计暴雨频率分析

为减少降雨及设计暴雨时空异质性对汶川县造成的损失,揭示汶川县降雨时空分布特征与设计暴雨特征,基于2001～2020年的GPM卫星降雨数据,采用Mann-Kendall等方法,从年、月、汛期、日等时间尺度和不同量级尺度,对汶川县降雨时空变化进行分析,并采用随机暴雨移置法(Stochastic Storm Transposition, SST)进行设计暴雨频率分析。结果表明：(1)汶川县年总降雨量呈显著增长趋势,主要受汛期降雨变化影响。(2)降雨空间分布不均匀,小雨主要分布在汶川县西南部,中到暴雨主要分布在汶川县东部。(3)基于随机暴雨移置法得到的设计降雨结果具有可靠性;随着降雨历时的增长,设计暴雨中心有从汶川县西南部向中东部移动的趋势;小重现期时,设计暴雨的空间分布不均匀性更为显著。研究成果可为汶川县暴雨洪涝防治提供参考。     

龙滩水电站入库洪水随机模拟研究

根据龙滩水电站所在流域的实际情况，建立多维自回归随机模型，由龙滩坝址以上流域内四个站区的日流量随机模拟入库设计洪水。通过对所建模型和模拟生成的洪水系列进行检验，表明利用多维自回归随机模型模拟龙滩水电站入库洪水是可行的。     

温德河流域暴雨洪水时空特征及模拟分析

受降雨和地形影响,吉林省温德河流域季节性洪灾频繁。为了解温德河流域暴雨洪水规律,利用2017年7—8月3次山洪灾害的暴雨洪水监测资料,采用自主研发模块化小流域分布式水文模型模拟了流域的洪水过程,取得较高的模拟精度。并结合研究区春登河、西阳河及五里河等三个主要河段的模拟流量和暴雨时空分布特征,分析三场暴雨时空分布对洪水造成的影响,总结了该流域2017年山洪灾害产生原因。结果表明:①温德河流域三场超标准洪水由短历时强降雨引起,"雨洪同向"的降雨锋面移动特点使洪峰呈现陡涨陡落之势;②"7·13"和"7·19"洪水的降雨时空集中程度和暴雨中心分布的差异影响两场洪水洪峰峰型、流量和各河段的洪量贡献比,造成温德河流域不同程度的灾害。     

龙滩水电站入库洪水随机模拟研究

根据龙滩水电站所在流域的实际情况，建立多维自回归随机模型，由龙滩坝址以上流域内4个站区的日流量随机模拟入库设计洪水。通过对所建模型和模拟生成的洪水系列进行检验，表明利用多维自同归随机模型模拟龙滩水电站入库洪水是可行的。     

河南省西平县小洪河郑州“7·20”特大暴雨移置洪水响应分析

为提高河南省西平县小洪河流域防洪水平,通过暴雨移置法将郑州“7·20”特大暴雨移置到洪汝河流域,分析小洪河流域在“7·20”特大暴雨条件下的洪水过程。结果表明：在郑州“7·20”特大暴雨条件下,西平县小洪河流域水利工程(除石漫滩外)均超保证水位;水库大坝、河道堤防均有可能出现漫溢、溃坝、决堤险情;小洪河堤防险工处可能决口;滞洪区、行洪区需全部投入运用。提出了针对性改善建议：在防洪工程调度运用中对大中型水库工程防洪库容试行全部拦蓄原则;完善滞洪区、行洪区群众转移预案编制;变更小洪河桂李站保证水位为62.51 m,保证流量为420 m³/s;建立小洪河洪水演进模型等。     

工程随机模型在暴雨洪水分析计算中的应用

本文利用工程随机模型的原理和方法，建立了年暴雨过程随机械模型和便于计算机数值模拟的暴雨洪水流域系统随机模型，并结合应用实例给出了对这些随机模型的实用性检验，表明这一方法不失为实际工程洪水分析计算的一条途径。     

坡面汇流法计算小河流域暴雨洪水(第二部分)

系统地介绍了一维水动力学(运动波)与水文学方法相结合的数学模型的算法原理。利用已知任意雨型的净雨时程分配,可以随之求出洪水流量过程线。文中将一场洪水计算分为坡面流计算及河槽洪水演算两部分,用57次野外实测洪水进行了验证。结果说明:一个概化的一维模式一旦与水文学方法相结合,可以得到与实测过程线相当接近的成果。模型参数比较稳定;有利于工程的安全和经济;可以电算,也可以手算;便于编程接入各地水情信息自动化系统,服务于防灾、减灾。本篇属论述第二部分。     

坡面汇流法计算小河流域暴雨洪水(第一部分)

系统地介绍了一维水动力学（运动波）与水文学方法相结合的数学模型的算法原理。利用已知任意雨型的净雨时程分配,可以随之求出洪水流量过程线。文中将一场洪水计算分为坡面流计算及河槽洪水演算两部分,用57次野外实测洪水进行了验证。结果说明：一个概化的一维模式一旦与水文学方法相结合,可以得到与实测过程线相当接近的成果。模型参数比较稳定;有利于工程的安全和经济;可以电算,也可以手算;便于编程接入各地水情信息自动化系统,服务于防灾、减灾。本篇属论述第一部分。     

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of Mahi-Sabarmati Basin (Subzone 3-a) using Index Flood Procedure with L-Moments

With the objective of investigating the hydrological homogeneity of India's hydrometeorological subzone 3-a and identification of a suitable frequency distribution for it, a regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out using the index flood procedure and the L-moments. Based on analysis of flood data at 12 gauged sites, the Mahi-Sabarmati basin is shown to be hydrologically homogeneous and follows the generalized normal distribution. Regional curve developed based on the analysis has been recommended for carrying out flood frequency analysis at both gauged and ungauged sites in this region.     

Stochastic modelling of point rainfall in a Mediterranean island environment

A stochastic simulation model of daily rainfall in discrete time is proposed. The model simulates the sequence of rainfall occurrences using the method of transition probability matrices. Synthetic daily rainfall depths are then generated using sampling methods plus a two step power transformation scheme (TSPT). Rainfall data from four meteorological stations from the islands Rhodes and Chios (Aegean Sea) were used for model validation. The proposed model was also compared to a widely used TPG model. Results showed that the proposed model performed more satisfactorilly than the TPG model preserving the statistical characteristics and the total number of rainfall occurrences of the historical samples.     

A Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing Water Allocation in a Reservoir System

In this paper a fuzzy dynamic Nash game model of interactions between water users in a reservoir system is presented. The model represents a fuzzy stochastic non-cooperative game in which water users are grouped into four players, where each player in game chooses its individual policies to maximize expected utility. The model is used to present empirical results about a real case water allocation from a reservoir, considering player (water user) non-cooperative behavior and also same level of information availability for individual players. According to the results an optimal allocation policy for each water user can be developed in addition to the optimal policy of the reservoir system. Also the proposed model is compared with two alternative dynamic models of reservoir optimization, namely Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and Fuzzy-State Stochastic Dynamic programming (FSDP). The proposed modeling procedures can be applied as an appropriate tool for reservoir operation, considering the interaction among the water users as well as the water users and reservoir operator.     

水面波动问题频域三阶解的一个实例(之二):三阶波形和水动力的求解

针对定深水域中一块直立推板简谐运动引起水面二维波动的问题,在论文[1]已给出速度势三阶解表达式的基础上,本文进一步求取波形和推板所受水动力的三阶解.通过与二阶解及完全非线性解的比较,分析了三阶解在非线性解中的地位和作用.     

水面波动问题频域三阶解的一个实例（之一）：三阶速度势的求解

本文对定深水域中一块直立推板简谐运动引起水面的二维波动作三阶分析和计算，求出流动速度势的三阶解，并对三阶量的组成及求解方法进行讨论和分析。     

Characteristics of a refuge for native freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionidae) in Lake St. Clair

The Lake St. Clair delta (∼ 100 km²) provides an important refuge for native freshwater mussels (Unionidae) wherein 22 of the ∼ 35 historical species co-occur with invasive dreissenids. A total of 1875 live unionids representing 22 species were found during snorkeling surveys of 32 shallow (∼ 1 m) sites throughout the delta. Richness and density of unionids and zebra mussel infestation rates varied among sites from 3 to 13 unionid species, 0.02 to 0.12 unionids/m², and < 1 to 35 zebra mussels/unionid, respectively. Zebra mussel infestation of unionids in the delta appears to be mitigated by dominant offshore currents, which limit densities of zebra mussel veligers in nearshore compared to offshore waters (13,600 vs. 28,000/m³, respectively). Glycogen concentrations in the tissues of a common and widespread species in the delta (Lampsilis siliquoidea) suggest that zebra mussels may be adversely affecting physiological condition of unionids in a portion of the Lake St. Clair delta. Physiological condition and community structure of unionids within the delta may also be influenced by differences in food quantity and quality resulting from the uneven distribution of water flowing from the St. Clair River. The delta likely supports the largest living unionid community in the lower Great Lakes and includes several species that have been listed as Endangered or Threatened in Canada and/or the state of Michigan, making it an important refuge for the conservation of native unionids.