东亚经济一体化与合作：朝向共同体

长期以来,东亚地区的经济一体化主要靠市场力量推动,区域经济合作则落后于经济一体化进程。亚洲金融危机证明,仅靠市场推动的经济一体化是脆弱的,只有加强区域经济合作,东亚地区才能增强抵御外部风险的能力,保持经济的持续繁荣。亚洲金融危机后,东亚地区迅速建立起“10 3”的合作机制,在加强金融领域合作的同时,也不断拓展在经贸投资等领域的合作,并逐步确立了以建立东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体的长远奋斗目标。特别是在中国提出与东盟建立自由贸易区后,东亚地区的合作步伐明显加快。尽管目前离建立东亚共同体的长远目标还很遥远,但东亚地区的合作进程已不可逆转,各种形式的合作努力将最终推动长远目标的实现。     

A Roadmap for Policy Dialogue and Economic Surveillance in East Asia

I. IntroductionOn 4th May, 2005, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, Japan and Korea(ASEAN+3) decided to take a significant step toward financial cooperation in East Asia.The Finance Ministers of the 13 ASEAN+3 countries agreed to strengthen the Chiang MaiInitiative (CMI) into a more effective and disciplined framework by: (1) integrating the CMIwith an enhanced economic surveillance process for the ASEAN+3 countries; (2) adoptinga collective activation and decisio…     

EU enlargement and its impacts on East Asia

Ten countries—most completing their transition from socialist-based economies to market economies—are slated to join the European Union (EU) in 2004 and four additional countries are expected to become members at some future dates. Despite the relatively small economic size of the accession countries, this type of deep integration can have non-negligible effects on countries outside of the preferential zone as the reduction in barriers across partners leads to a re-orientation of trade. In this paper, we evaluate the extent of trade adjustments and the economic impacts it will have on the East Asian economies using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The overall macroeconomic effects on East Asia are small. There is some trade diversion, but there may be an opportunity to increase market penetration in some sectors of the expanding EU for which East Asia has a marked comparative advantage. The paper also assesses the relative importance of linking trade openness to productivity and lowering trade costs between the accession countries and the EU-15.     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

"孤独"的东亚与其区域经济一体化的发展路径

20世纪90年代以来,世界范围内的区域经济一体化掀起了新一轮的发展浪潮。东亚地区区域经济一体化进程却步履蹒跚,相对滞后。本文拟对东亚区域经济一体化的趋势和进程及其相对滞后的原因作一较为客观、深入的探讨,并对其未来可能的发展路径提出自己的见解。     

从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作

经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

东亚外商直接投资、技术进步与经济均衡增长

本文利用结构关联方法,实证分析1985~2004年东亚吸引外资是否会带来技术进步,并以此推动经济均衡增长。东亚经济均衡增长经历了三次路径转移,技术进步决定经济均衡增长路径的动态调整,但技术进步的作用具有时滞性。东亚需要增强吸收和转换技术的能力。     

China＇s Changing Economic Structure and Implications for Regional Patterns of Trade, Production and Integration

I. Introduction There is a strong momentum for regional economic integration within East Asia.1 But few countries in the region harbor any illusion of realizing a region-wide economic union any time soon. A crucial ingredient in any successful East Asia-wide economic integration effort is China. China could be a major catalyst in the integration process if it chooses to.But it would do so only if such a move is in line with the overall objectives of its foreign economic policy. More import…     

东亚经济趋同的实证研究

本文从最优货币区和增长趋同角度对东亚15个经济体的趋同性进行了实证分析，利用欧洲货币一体化中的趋同条约为参考标准考察了东亚的名义趋同，并对人均实际收入的σ-趋同、绝对β-趋同进行了检验，同时从产出结构层次对东亚的结构趋同性进行了比较分析。实证结果表明东亚经济体出现了一定的趋同，但并不明显，与货币一体化的要求有很大的距离，东亚实现统一货币的道路还很漫长。     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

从国际生产网络视角考察东亚贸易模式转变

东亚的"雁行"国际分工与组织模式自上世纪90年代以来逐渐衰落,其带动东亚贸易发展的作用下降。但是一种新的分工与组织方式——国际生产网络——随即出现。本文从国际生产网络这一新的视角,考察了近年来在新的组织和分工方式下东亚贸易模式的转变,并对东亚未来贸易发展模式进行了展望。     

东亚经济格局的变动及其对两岸经贸关系的影响

20世纪90年代以来,东亚经济格局发生重大变化,由日本″单极″变成了中日″双头″。这一变化导致两岸经济从单方面的依赖到互相依赖;在贸易平衡、外汇储备等方面台湾对祖国大陆更加依赖;台商投资从短期经营到本土化经营;两岸产业分工从产业间发展到产业内、产品内;两岸从企业间一般技术合作到行业组织间标准方面的合作。     

日本经济复苏中的东亚因素

近年,日本经济显现复苏迹象。一般认为,对东亚出口增加是带动经济复苏的牵引力之一。本文通过分析日本与东亚国家和地区间贸易格局的新特点,阐述东亚因素促进日本经济增长的原因,说明互利情况下,日本在东亚地区经济发展中应发挥的作用。     

Substituting and Complementing Models of Economic Development in East Asia

This paper assesses the relative merits and demerits of different East Asian models by placing them in a historical perspective. It re-interprets Gerschenkron's model of late industrialization, and extends it to compare East Asian economies in view of substituting and complementing models. It then explains divergent performances among East Asian economies from the late 1990s by examining the different challenges they faced as their economies became mature and more fully open to forces of globalization. In conclusion, the paper discusses the applicability of the East Asian models for today's developing countries.     

区域经济金融合作:东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择

从中长期来看，全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中是不可持续的，东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下，加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。东亚国家和地区应完善区域合作协调机制、加强区域货币和贸易投资合作，并进一步促进亚洲债券市场发展。     

从日本FTA战略看东北亚地区经济一体化的发展趋势

战后,日本充分利用了贸易自由化时期的有利国际环境,在"贸易立国"战略指导下,多年来一直奉行多边自由贸易政策,从不搞双边的自由贸易协定。20世纪90年代中期以后,随着国际和国内环境的变化,日本的经济合作政策发生了明显的转变,日本媒体、企业界和政府对区域贸易集团的关注程度明显提高。2001年,中国与东盟就10年内建立中国东盟自由贸易区达成一致,对日本加快区域经济一体化进程起到了关键性的推动作用,日本加快了构建双边自由贸易区的进程。     

新疆发展加工贸易的必要性与对策

新疆对外贸易中加工贸易基础十分薄弱,加工贸易量与内地差距很大,长远看新疆加工贸易前景好,潜力巨大。新疆本地产品出口比重较低,加工贸易量明显不足,随着新疆整体设施环境的优化、贸易的整体转型升级,以及逐步承接的东部地区产业转移,新疆加工贸易对外贸增长的支撑作用将会越来越明显。新疆应紧紧抓住上海合作组织框架下的中亚自由贸易区的建设机遇以及东南沿海产业转移的良机,大力发展加工贸易,引导加工贸易在新疆落地生根和转型升级,提高新疆加工贸易在外贸进出口额中的比重,优化新疆的产业结构和进出口商品结构,推进新疆经济的全面发展。     

Religion and Educational Attainment in East Asia: First Evidence from the East Asian Social Survey

Abstract

In this research note, I analyse the effects of religion on educational attainment in four East Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan) using the East Asian Social Survey. Controlling for a host of background variables, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of educational attainment show that Catholics and Orthodox Christians have on average more education than those with no religious affiliation, while the followers of other Eastern religions (including, among others, Taoism and syncretistic beliefs) have on average less education. The effects for Protestantism and Buddhism differ across the four different countries, probably because they both include various denominations and schools.