NEW EVIDENCE ON THE EXPANSION OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

In this article the expansion of service sector employment is examined in detail in seven OECD countries, i.e. France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States, using a newly developed set of estimates for service employment. A sufficient degree of disaggregation, consistency and harmonization was attained by merging existing national sources on employment. The twenty two distinguished service activities are aggregated into four subsectors i.e. producer, distributive, personal and social services. The new evidence revealed that the characteristics of the expansion of services claimed by a number of studies needs adjustment, and for some services the figures of recent years indicate serious changes in trends. In the sixties the growing service employment share was largely due to the expansion of social services. In the seventies and eighties growth in social services slowed down and the expansion of producer services became more prominant. Further, employment growth in personal services started to accelerate in the seventies after substantial declines in the sixties. These changing trends were most pronounced in the United States, but other countries seem to be following the same pattern with some lag.     

外部关税约束、自由贸易区规模与世界自由贸易

该文在外部关税约束条件下分析了几种不同类型的自由贸易区与世界自由贸易的关系,该文结果显示,一个实行开放成员国地位的自由贸易区可以实现世界自由贸易,但是当自由贸易区以追求成员国福利最大化为目标时,在世界规模大于4时,该自由贸易区的扩张不可能最终实现世界自由贸易.该文还研究了对称的自由贸易区是否可以通过进一步的融合从而把世界变成一个一体化的自由贸易区,结果显示,具有对称市场能力的自由贸易区可以通过进一步的融合提高成员国福利,从而最终实现世界自由贸易.     

LEGISLATED PROTECTION AND THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION

Tariff bindings and administered protection are two characteristics of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that are little understood. Tariff bindings place a ceiling on tariffs that is not always reached, whereas administered protection provides all industries with some minimum import protection, effectively creating a floor for protection. How do these policies affect applied most favored nation (MFN) tariff rates that are enacted through the legislature? I model tariffs determined by a dynamic legislative process and show that low applied MFN tariffs are less likely with tariff bindings and more likely with administered protection than under purely legislated protection.     

WORLD INCOME SHARES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: A NORTH-SOUTH GROWTH CYCLE

The trading relationship between a primary-producing South and a manufacturing North has dynamic properties of conflict and symbiosis similar to those of the closed-economy, worker-capitalist relationship. In a simple model these dynamics may lead to cyclical behaviour involving two variables, the Southern share of world income and the rate of exploitation of primary producing capacity. The rate of change of the terms of trade is also cyclical. Long-run income shares are constant, however, implying that the Southern terms of trade rise by just enough to offset productivity savings on primary inputs.     

中国的贸易扩张及其对亚太地区贸易增长的贡献

本文以1990—2003年为考察时段,从总体和产业两个层面,对中国在亚太地区主要经济体出口增长中的贡献度进行实证评估。通过对各经济体出口增长来源的分解,我们发现亚太地区的贸易扩张越来越依赖于需求拉动的作用,而从需求方面看,中国对亚太地区贸易增长的贡献越来越大,对本地区经济的影响力已替代了日本。东盟对中国的依赖程度越来越高。一个以中国为中心的更加紧密的东亚地区贸易关系正在形成,这为今后该地区区域经济一体化的发展创造了一个良好的合作基础和利益来源。     

对世界农产品贸易中的比较优势的检验

该文在利莫尔、皮特森检验的基础上,利用61个国家的截面数据,对主要农产品谷物、棉花、油料、肉类、糖以及全部农产品的国际贸易是否符合比较优势原理进行了计量检验.该文的结论是:资源禀赋仍是解释农产品贸易格局的主要因素,各国市场经济的成熟程度对农产品比较优势的发挥具有显著影响.     

IMPACT OF TRADE ON SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES

Trade data from 1977 and 1985 suggest that, on average, service industries with the greatest trade-related employment gains tend to be more skill-intensive and that such industries employ relatively more women and minorities than do service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. Three important qualifiers temper these findings: (i) Compared to whites, minorities—particularly blacks—have lower probability of increased employment in trade-enhanced service industries. (ii) Unlike whites or Hispanics, skilled black workers are more likely to be employed in service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. (iii) On an industry by industry basis, no consistent relationship appears to exist between skill intensity and level of trade-related employment. The latter finding supports the view that service industry comparative advantage is industry-specific .