宏观调控与房地产上市公司资本结构调整

本文研究了宏观调控对房地产上市公司资本结构的影响及其资本结构调整方式的变化。研究发现,宏观调控之后,房地产上市公司总负债率显著提高;借款的期限发生了显著变化,长期借款显著增加而短期借款显著减少,但总的有息负债没有发生显著变化;房地产上市公司的贸易应付款显著增加,这是资产负债率显著提高的主要原因。对房地产上市公司宏观调控前后融资方式变化的研究发现,随着宏观调控带来的银行信贷政策的趋紧,房地产企业融资方式出现了多元化,新的融资工具得以出现和发展,金融市场的完全性提高。研究表明,在金融市场不完全和管制环境下,资本结构并不完全是企业自主决策的结果。宏观政策和资本市场供给条件,可能是中国企业资本结构是最重要的影响因素。     

Capital Structure Deviation and Speed of Adjustment

As a firm deviates from its target leverage from above (below), the bankruptcy costs (foregone tax savings) rise at an increasing rate while the tax savings (reduced bankruptcy costs) rise at a decreasing rate, generating a stronger incentive for rebalancing capital structure. This phenomenon renders the speed of adjustment (SOA) an increasing function of the deviation. Employing a bootstrapping‐based estimation strategy that averts well‐known estimation biases, we find U.S. firms exhibit a positive SOA sensitivity to leverage deviation. Also, the SOA sensitivity is greater for overlevered than underlevered firms.     

Market Imperfections,Macroeconomic Conditions,and Capital Structure Dynamics: A Cross-Country Study

This article investigates how “systematic” adjustment costs proxied by market imperfections, and macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure dynamics in a cross-country setting. We document substantial variations in firms’ capital structure adjustments across countries and, particularly, over time. Consistent with adjustment costs impeding firms from rebalancing their capital structures, worse market imperfections are associated with slower speeds of adjustment (SOA) and larger leverage deviations. Intertemporally, capital structure adjustment is procyclical, with SOA increasing by 0.9 percentage point for a one-percentage-point increase in GDP growth rate. The procyclicality is attributable to good macroeconomic conditions mitigating market imperfections through channels of 1) facilitating free-ride restructuring and 2) uncertainty alleviation. Our investigation features a bootstrapping-based estimation method that addresses the mechanical mean reversion of leverage ratio.     

转型经济中宏观冲击与公司融资决策——基于资本结构动态调整框架的实证研究

本文探讨经济改革动态背景中的宏观冲击对我国上市公司资本结构调整的影响。企业选择股权债权融资方式时,一方面要权衡债务融资与股权融资的相对成本,另一方面又受到融资资源可获得性的限制。经验证据表明,信贷市场和股权再融资市场上配额性指标和成本性指标的变动,作为外生的宏观冲击,在统计和经济意义上均对企业资本结构的调整具有重要影响。资本结构的调整幅度是信贷规模的增函数,是股权扩容规模、贷款利率、股市收益率的减函数。本文的发现对于宏观经济政策的制定和实施具有现实的政策意义。     

Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment

We evaluate the empirical evidence for costs that penalize changes in investment using U.S. industry data. In aggregate models, such investment adjustment costs have been introduced to help account for a variety of business cycle and asset market phenomena. So far no attempt has been made to estimate these costs directly at a disaggregated level. We consider an industry model with investment adjustment costs and estimate its parameters using generalized methods of moments. The findings indicate small costs associated with changing the flow of investment at the industry level. The weighted average of the industry elasticities with respect to the shadow price of capital, which depends inversely on the adjustment cost parameter, is eight times larger than the largest estimate reported in Levin et al. (2006) . We examine a variety of factors that may account for this discrepancy, but a substantial part of it remains unexplained. Our results therefore suggest that more caution is needed when giving policy advice that hinges on a structural interpretation of large investment adjustment costs.     

Long-Run Performance Persistence of Investment Funds

This article analyzes the long-run persistence of returns and risk of investment in the assets of money, bound, and stock funds recorded on the Polish market in 2000–12. Portfolios of safe, hybrid, and stock classes are formed on the basis of tested funds. The persistence of returns and the Sharpe ratio are investigated in rolled five-year sub-periods, with one year step. Also, persistence in performance is assessed using classic CAPM and Fama and French models, which allow for evaluating management skills. We find the occurrence of the Sharpe ratio long-run persistence of money and bound funds. The study does not explicitly show long-run persistence in hybrid and stock fund portfolios. The CAPM and Fama and French models simulations of returns on stock and hybrid funds indicate varying management skills during five-year periods.     

风险投资领域“对赌协议”的可执行性研究

对赌协议在我国风险投资领域已有较多表现,实践中因对赌失败所引发的执行困境时有发生。本文阐明了本土背景下的对赌协议产生基础在于企业的股权融资偏好行为,分析了对赌协议在不完全契约状态下表现出的射幸性特点,论证了基于企业估值调整所进行的条款安排并不违背法律所追求的公平和效率目标。在此基础上,文章认为,对赌协议的可执行问题最终需回归到对其效力的认定上。合法性、契约自由以及公司自治等原则是审视此类协议效力的重要标准。     

Ultimate Ownership and Adjustment Speed Toward Target Capital Structures: Evidence from China

We investigate whether ultimate ownership affects firms’ adjustment speed toward target capital structures for Chinese publicly listed companies over the period 1999–2009. We divide our sample into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs according to their ultimate ownership. We find that SOEs have higher leverage ratios and slower adjustment speeds toward target capital structures. Our results are consistent with the trade-off theory, implying that the political resources of SOEs can lead to a higher persistence and slower leverage adjustment speeds in comparison to non-SOEs. Finally, our results also raise a question: Why do Chinese companies adjust their capital structure so fast?     

Macroeconomic Adjustment and Poverty in Selected Industrial Countries

The business cycle affects the incidence of poverty, as shownby evidence from Australia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, andthe United States. Many of the poor in these countries are outsidethe labor market, and transfers are a major source of incomefor many others, but the unemployment and wage reductions thatoccur in recession increase the incidence of poverty. Majorcauses of poverty are unemployment in Australia and the UnitedKingdom and low wages in the United States. Similar cyclicaleffects are observed in Sweden, but a vast transfer programvirtually eliminates poverty. There are several policy optionsfor combating poverty caused by recession. A combination ofunemployment insurance for a limited period followed by a jobguarantee is the most effective policy toward unemployment,whereas poverty caused by low earnings can be remedied by redistributionthrough the tax system.     

Micro and Macroeconomic Adjustment Processes in East Germany

Micro and Macroeconomic Adjustment Processes in East Germany     

产权性质、客户集中度与营运资金动态调整

以2007-2015年我国 A股上市公司为样本,从动态的角度实证研究客户集中度对营运资金管理活动的影响,并考察不同产权性质下影响的差异性.研究结果表明:我国上市公司营运资金存在着目标值,客户集中度是影响企业目标营运资金需求的一个重要因素,并对企业营运资金的偏离程度和调整速度有着显著的影响.具体而言,客户集中度越高,其实际营运资金偏离目标水平的程度越大,且向目标营运资金水平调整的速度也越快;进一步研究发现,客户集中度对营运资金动态调整的影响在不同产权性质下存在着异质性,相对国有企业而言,客户集中度对营运资金偏离程度及调整速度的影响在非国有企业较为显著.     

Persistence in Equity Fund Performance in Brazil

We examine performance persistence in the large and growing Brazilian equity fund market from 2000 to 2012. We find a significant risk-adjusted spread between a portfolio of top- and bottom-performing funds, which supports the idea that performance persists. This spread remains after controlling for market, size, distress, and momentum risk factors and tends to be larger and more significant for a set of small and retail funds. The spread is mostly driven by the underperformance of the bottom decile of funds, which is consistent with the existence of some fund managers with insufficient skills to recover investment costs.     

Performance and Performance Persistence of 'Ethical' Unit Trusts in the UK

Abstract:  We examine performance, and persistence in the performance, of UK 'ethical' or SRI funds and find that performance appears to be time-varying, showing that conclusions on performance itself are influenced by whether a static or time varying model is employed. Given evidence that many UK funds which claim to be international in nature may exhibit home bias in their portfolio allocations, we also propose a new measure for performance of international funds that allows for this and show that such recognition has important implications for the conclusions drawn with respect to these funds. We find evidence that supports persistence in performance, particularly at longer time horizons. There is some evidence that for domestic funds, past 'winning' SRI funds outperform 'losing' SRI funds to a greater extent than their control portfolio counterparts.     

Determinants of Capital Structure and Adjustment to Long Run Target: Evidence From UK Company Panel Data

This paper examines the empirical determinants of borrowing decisions of firms and the role of adjustment process. A partial adjustment model is estimated by GMM estimation procedure using data for an unbalanced panel of 390 UK firms over the period of 1984–1996. Our results suggest that firms have long-term target borrowing ratios and they adjust to their target ratios relatively fast, which might suggest that the costs of being away from their target ratios are significant. The results also provide support for positive impact of size, and negative effects of growth opportunities, liquidity, profitability of firms and non-debt tax shields on the borrowing decisions of companies.     

税务风险、税收规避与企业资本结构调整

基于上市公司数据构建双重差分策略,研究税务风险对企业资本结构调整的影响.结果显示:企业税务风险的下降会减缓企业资本结构调整,平均而言,处理组企业的资本结构降低了约2％,且这一关系在动态条件下依然存在;在规模较小、市场化程度较高的企业,这种抑制效应越明显;税务风险的降低会影响企业避税,进而减缓资本结构的调整速度.因此,完善企业税务风险管理,有助于"稳杠杆"战略的顺利实施.     

中国商业银行最优资本水平及其调整研究——基于部分调整模型和傅里叶单位根检验的分析

采用部分调整模型和傅里叶单位根检验对中国14家上市商业银行的最优资本水平进行研究,并估计出存在最优资本水平银行的最优资本比率值和资本调整速度。研究发现,大部分上市银行均存在最优资本水平,但不同类型和资产规模的银行在最优资本比率的目标变量选择方面有所差异。平均而言,大型商业银行最优资本水平较高,股份制银行最优资本水平较低。资本调整速度在银行间差异很大,自有资金比率调整速度最快,核心资本充足率和资本充足率调整速度较慢。     

State ownership and adjustment speed toward target leverage: Evidence from a transitional economy

Using a quantile regression approach and 5,374 Vietnamese firm-year observations from 2000 to 2016, this paper examines the effect of state ownership on the speed of adjustment SOA toward target leverage across various levels of capital structure. The findings consistently show that these effects on SOA vary depending on the leverage level. The relationship is negative for low-leveraged firms, positive for high-leveraged firms, but insignificant in the central area of leverage distribution. Moreover, the negative effects are greater than the positive effects.     

Macroeconomic Variables and the Housing Market in Turkey

After important policy changes in 1980, Turkey's trade expanded considerably. Although interindustry trade remained predominant, intraindustry trade (IIT) increased substantially. This paper investigates whether the increase in IIT contributed to reducing adjustment costs due to trade expansion. We undertook an econometric approach and considered three-digit International Standard Industry Classification classified data. We used a model developed by Brülhart and Thorpe (2000) for Malaysia, both in static and dynamic forms. Our static results indicate that, if there is any contribution that IIT makes to adjustments in the manufacturing industries of Turkey, it is either nonexistent, if measured by changes in the Grubel—Lloyd index, or in the opposite direction, if measured by the marginal IIT index (A). The dynamic results are somewhat more encouraging, in that the coefficients of the lagged A and Grubel—Lloyd indexes are negative and significant when three yearly changes are considered, but the overall results are not sufficient to conclude that the structural adjustment hypothesis holds for Turkey.